Penultimate Mock Draft of 2011 (Full 4 Rounds)

[Wilfork#75]

With less than 2 weeks until the draft this will be my second last mock of 2011. I will post my final mock a few days before the start of the draft and I may even do a full 7 rounds (yes I have time on my hands). My picks for the Pats haven’t changed too much recently, but much of the first round has. I’ve tried to look at some scenarios which I think make sense, could happen and would be beneficial to those involved. This is just a fun process so any feedback would be appreciated.

Round 1

1. Car- QB- C. Newton- Auburn
It seems like Carolina is set on Cam Newton. I personally think it’s a monumental mistake, but they are the ones that have to live with this pick.

2. Den- DT- M. Dareus- Alabama
This seems like a no brainer to me. They just moved back to a 4-3 defence and need a lot of help along the DL. Marcel Dareus is the top DL in this draft and a really solid pick at #2.

3. Buf- OLB- V. Miller- Texas A&M
It seems like Buffalo is looking to go defensive playmaker at 3 and skip over a potential franchise QB. If they like Fitzpatrick and are not sold on Blaine Gabbert, then Von Miller is a good pick a 3.

4. Cin- WR- J. Jones- Alabama
Cinci could go in any direction. They have needs at QB, WR, DE and CB which could all be addressed at this point. I think they are set on going WR here and I keep hearing that they like Julio Jones as a better fit for their system than AJ Green. A bit of a surprise but I really like Julio Jones.

5. TRADE- Tenn (from Ari)- QB- B. Gabbert
Arizona trades 1(5) to Tennessee for 1 (8) + 3(77) + 4(109)
I keep hearing that if Blaine Gabbert is on the board at no.5 that Arizona will pass on him for a defensive playmaker and look to add a veteran QB. If that is the case I think it would be best to trade down to get that guy. Tennessee is in huge need of a QB and Blaine Gabbert is the top QB in this draft. I think they make the move up to 5 to grab their franchise QB. Worst case scenario for Arizona is AJ Green or Prince Amukamara at no. 8.

6. TRADE- Dal (from Cle)- CB- P. Peterson- LSU
Cleveland trades 1(6) to Dallas for 1(9) + 3 (71)
I hadn’t really thought about this until recently, but if Patrick Peterson is still on the board at 6, I have a hard time thinking Jerry Jones won’t at least try to go up and get him. He is a big name, a flashy player, fills a huge need and is great value, even if trading up to 6 to get. Worst case scenario for Cleveland is Robert Quinn or Prince Amukamara at 9.

7. SF- CB- P. Amukamara- Nebraska
SF would have loved Peterson to fall to them at 7, but instead ‘settle’ for Prince Amukamara, which isn’t a bad consolation prize. Prince would immediately step in and improve the 49ers secondary.

8. Ari (Tenn)- OLB- R. Quinn- UNC
Arizona moves back and still picks up the defensive playmaker they would have likely targeted at 5. Robert Quinn is a hugely talented pass rusher, and fills a huge need at OLB. With Von Miller off the board, trading down and grabbing Quinn is a great move.

9. Cle (Dal)- WR-AJ Green- Georgia
Like Arizona, Cleveland manages to move down and still get the guy that is possibly rated #1 overall on their board. I don’t think trading down from 6 is much of a risk because SF and Arizona were unlikely to go WR, so they manage to grab and extra 3rd rounder and still get an absolute steal in AJ Green. This may seem low for Green, but if Cinci surprises us and goes Julio Jones at 4, I think this is very possible.

10. TRADE Det (from Wash)- OT- T. Smith- USC
Washinton trades 1(10) to Detroit for 1(13) + 4(107)
Washington will be desperate to move down from 10 to pick up some extra mid round picks. With most of the elite talent gone, I don’t see many viable trading partners, so they settle for a move down with Detroit at a big discount. Detroit wants Tyron Smith and jumps ahead of Minnesota at 12 to grab him, while giving up very little to move up.

11. Hou- OLB- A. Smith- Missouri
Houston really needs help at OLB and with Robert Quinn off the board at 8, I think Aldon Smith is the next in line. This is probably a reach for him, but I don’t see any trading partners that make sense for Houston.

12. TRADE- SD (from Min)- DE- JJ Watt- Wisconsin
Minnesota trades 1 (12) to SD for 1(18) + 2(61)
SD needs help at DE and the top guys likely won’t be available at 18. They have a ton of picks in the draft so they can afford to move up and get their guy. I think they go JJ Watt over Cam Jordan here. Minnesota needs a QB and they don’t have the ammo to move up and get one in the second, so I think they are forced to go QB in round 1. Jake Locker is a reach at 12, so they move down to get their guy.

13. Wash (Det)- NT- P. Taylor- Baylor
They would like to move down again but I don’t see a likely trade partner, so they fill a huge need on their DL with Phil Taylor at NT. This is probably a surprise pick, but NT’s are hard to find and it is a huge area of need for Washington.

14. Stl- DT- N. Fairley- Auburn
They would have loved to get a WR, and may have tried to make a move up to grab AJ Green, but instead they settle for the top guy on their board. DT is a huge need and Nick Fairley was once considered to be the top pick in the draft. It may be a surprise that he falls this far, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams have Corey Liuget rated higher than Fairley and he tumbles into the 20’s.

15. TRADE- Bal (from Mia)- DE- C. Jordan- Cal
Miami trades 1(15) to Baltimore for 1(26) + 2 (58)
It looks like Baltimore is set on going DE in the first round of the draft. Instead of staying at 26 and hoping that Wilkerson or Hayward fall, they make a move up to grab arguably the top 3-4 DE in the draft. This is a good trading spot because Miami is looking to move down to grab a 2nd round pick, and 15 is ahead of the Patriots who could also be targeting Cam Jordan.

16. Jax- DE- R. Kerrigan- Purdue
The Jags need help at DE, and Ryan Kerrigan fits the mold of what they look for in a pass rusher. Great motor and work ethic, he is a great fit for their system and would immediately come in and compete. A very safe pick for the Jags.

17. NE (Oak)- DE/OLB- D. Bowers- Clemson
With so many question marks about his knee, Bowers falls in the Pats lap at 17. With so much talk going around the league, you can guarantee that the only people BB will listen to about the health of Bowers knee are the Pats doctors.

18. Min (SD)- QB- J. Locker- Washington
Minnesota is in huge need of a new QB and are almost forced to take one in the first round. I think Locker is the top guy on their board and a good pick here at 18 for the Vikings.

19. NYG- OG- M. Pouncey- Florida
Mike Pouncey might be shocked when Dallas doesn’t take him in the first round, but going that high is completely unrealistic. The Giants need help along the O-Line, especially the interior. I personally think this is too high for him, but his stock seems to be on the rise. Being picked 1 spot after his brother is something that should motivate him though.

20. TB- DE- J. Houston- Georgia
TB will be looking to take the top DE available at 20. That will be between Justin Houston and Adrian Clayborn from Iowa. Although I think Clayborn is the superior prospect, I think his health issue is enough to scare TB off. Houston is a solid pick at 20.

21. KC- OLB- B. Reed- Arizona
KC would have loved for Phil Taylor to drop to them at 21, but with him off the board they have to look elsewhere. Their next biggest needs are OLB and WR, and I don’t think there is a WR of value at this point, so I think they take the top OLB available. They might have had interest in Justin Houston, but with him off the board they take the next guy available which is Brooks Reed from Arizona. Maybe a slight reach but he is a really solid football player.

22. Ind- OT- A. Costanzo- BC
Indy really needs to protect Peyton Manning and they have their choice of O-Lineman at this point. I think they have Costanzo as the top rated OT available, and make a very solid pick.

23. Phi- OT- G. Carimi- Wisconsin
Philly needs a new RT to protect Vicks blindside and Gabe Carimi seems like a great fit. He is more physical than Nate Solder or Derek Sherrod, and I think is a much better fit as an Andy Reid O-Lineman.

24. NO- DT- C. Liuget- Illinois
The Saints have the luxury of just sitting back and taking the B.P.A. At this point that is Corey Liuget, who is a very talented DT who will fit very well in NO.

25. Sea- DT- M. Wilkerson- Temple
Seattle could go a number of directions here with QB, CB and OL possibilities. I think they address defence at 25 and take the top DT on the board in Mohammed Wilkerson, who will be a very good 3-tech for the Seahawks.

26. Mia (Bal)- QB- R. Mallet- Arkansas
Miami moved down from 15 to this spot to get better value for a QB. Ryan Mallet has been heavily linked to the Dolphins recently, and I think he really fits what they are looking to do. A good pick for Miami.

27. TRADE- Mia (from Atl)- RB- M. Ingram- Alabama
Atl trades 1(27) to Mia for 2(58) + 3 (79) + 2012 3rd
After getting their QB at 26, Miami moves up to 27 to fill their other major need at RB. Mark Ingram is the top guy available, and many believe he could be the pick for Miami at 15. Good maneuvring allows Miami to get their QB and RB in the first round. Atlanta doesn’t see much value left on the board so they make the move down and add picks.

28. NE- DE- C. Hayward- Ohio State
Probably unrealistic, but the Pats make 2 picks in a row without trading. In this case Heyward falls into their lap at 28, and is too good to pass up. A very good DE prospect that can come in and add some athleticism to the RDE spot.

 

[Wilfork#75]

29. TRADE- Cin (from Chi)- QB- C. Ponder- Florida State
Chi trades 1(29) to Cin for 2(35) + 4 (101)
Cincinnati makes their move up to grab their QB late in round 1. There are a number of teams looking for a QB, so they make a move before anyone else has a chance. Chicago thinks they can still get good value at the top of round 2, so they make a move down and pick up and extra 4th.

30. NYJ- OLB- A. Ayers- UCLA
The Jest could go DL or OLB at 30, but with Heyward and Wilkerson gone, any DE at this point would be a reach. So they settle for the top OLB available which is Akeem Ayers. I really like this pick because I don’t like Ayers or the Jest.

31. Pit- CB- J. Smith- Colorado
The Steelers are desperate to add some talent at CB, and Jimmy Smith is a top 10 talent. With their strong locker room, I think they are willing to take a chance on his character concerns and take him at the end of round 1.

32. TRADE- Buf (from GB)- OT- N. Solder- Colorado
GB trades 1 (32) to Buf for 2 (32) + 5(133)
Why would Buffalo move up 2 spots to grab and OT? The first reason is the extra year 1st round picks can sign for in their rookie contracts. The second is the Pats at 33 are a huge unknown. They are highly likely to trade 33, and a number of teams could look to move up for and OT, such as Dallas or Arizona. Or if the Pats make a pick at 33, an OT is a likely option. Instead of taking that chance the Bills move up to 32, only giving up a 5th round pick to grab Nate Solder.



Round 2

33. TRADE- SF (from NE)- QB- A. Dalton- TCU
NE trades 2(33) to SF for 2(45) + 4(108) + 4(115)
The 9ers reportedly want to give Alex Smith another chance, but with the CBA uncertainty, they make a move up to get Dalton.

34. GB (Buf)- OG- D. Watkins- Baylor
They need help at O-Line, so they grab the fast rising Watkins just ahead of Chicago.

35. Chi (Cin)- DT- M. Austin- UNC
They would have liked the option to take Watkins, but I think they would be looking defence anyway. Marvin Austin is a good fit here for the Bears.

36. Den- RB- M. Leshoure- Illinois
Denver needs a bigger back to complement Knowshon Moreno and Leshoure is great value. Rahim Moore is also an option.

37. Cle- DE- A. Clayborn- Iowa
After moving down and getting a steal with AJ Green at 9, the Browns get another steal with Clayborn falling into the second round due to his medical concerns.

38. Ari- OT- D. Sherrod- Mississippi State
The Cards desperately need help at OL, and with the run on QB’s, one of the top OT’s has fallen to them at 38. I personally like Sherrod much better than Solder, and think this would be a good fit.

39. Tenn- DT- S. Paea- Oregon State
They got their franchise QB in round 1, now they need to address their defensive front. They passed on Nick Fairley in round 1, now they grab another dominant DL in Paea.

40. Dal- OT/OG- M. Cannon- TCU
The Cowboys really need to address the offensive line, to not only protect Tony Romo, but to also help out the run game. Marcus Cannon is exactly the type of O-Lineman the Cowboys like and he could play OG or RT for them from day 1.

41. Wash- QB- C. Kaepernick- Nevada
They failed to address the QB position in round 1, now they really need to get their signal caller of the future. They don’t have a 3rd round pick so this must be a QB. Colin Kaepernick is the top rated QB left, and a guy I can see Dan Snyder falling in love with.

42. Hou- CB/FS- A. Williams- Texas
They would have loved to get Stephen Paea here to play NT, but settle for another massive need. Aaron Williams could come in and play CB or FS, which are both major areas of concern for the Texans.

43. Min- DE- J. Sheard- Pitt
They not only got their QB in round 1, but they also got an extra 2nd round pick. Here they need to address their defence, and with Ray Edwards likely gone, DE is a big need. Jabaal Sheard is the top DE available and a really solid pick at this point.

44. Det- CB- B. Harris- Mia
They may have looked to move up for Amukamara if he fell, but after taking Tyron Smith in round 1 they are forced to look for a CB in round 2. Brandon Harris was once considered a top 15 pick, but now falls to the Lions in round 2. He is a really solid guy that will come in and contribute.

45. TRADE- Atl (from NE)- TE- K. Rudolph- ND
NE trades 2(45) to Atl for 2(59) + 3(91) + 7(229) + 7(230)
After moving out of round 1, the Falcons make a move up into the middle of round 2 to grab a playmaker on offence. Kyle Rudolph is a 1st round talent that falls because of the lack of value in TE’s in the draft. A great replacement for Tony Gonzalez. Solid value trade for NE, grabbing two 7th round picks to get a head start of UDFA’s.

46. Den- FS- R. Moore- UCLA
They went RB earlier in round 2, now they get the top rated safety in the draft. Good value and fills a big position of need.

47. Stl- WR- T. Smith- Maryland
They missed out on a WR in round 1, now they get their playmaker for Sam Bradford. Torrey Smith is seen as a first rounder by many, so he is a good pick for the Rams.

48. Oak- OT/G- B. Ijalana- Villanova
The run on QB’s has pushed the O-Lineman down a bit so far. Ijalana is a guy that could go early 2nd, but if he falls here the Raiders will jump all over him.

49. Jax- CB/S- R. Dowling- Virginia
The Jags need a lot of help in the secondary and Ras-I Dowling offers a lot of versatility. I think his best fit however for the Jags is at CB opposite Rashean Mathis.

50. SD- WR- L. Hankerson- Miami
The future of Vincent Jackson in SD is up in the air, so they need to get another weapon for Phillip Rivers. Hankerson is a very solid #2 WR in the NFL.

51. TB- DE- C. Ballard- Iowa
They double dipped last year at DT, now they do it again at DE. After grabbing Justin Houston in round 1, they now come back and get another DE, and good value pick in Christian Ballard from Iowa.

52. NYG- RB- R. Williams- Virginia Tech
The Giants really need help at RB, and someone to complement Brandon Jacobs. After passing on Mark Ingram in round 1, they come back in round 2 and get the third rated RB in the draft.

53. Phi- CB- D. House- New Mexico State
Philly needs to add youth and depth in an aging secondary. Davon House is the top rated CB available and would be a good fit to play opposite Asante Samuel.

54. Ind- DT- D. Nevis- LSU
Once again addressing the trenches, the Colts come back and grab a penetrating DT after going OT in round 1. Drake Nevis is a very talented interior pass rusher that could cause major headaches for offences playing between Mathis and Freeney.

55. KC- C/OG- S. Wisniewski- Penn State
The Cheifs need help at both OG and C, and Stephen Wisniewski offers the ability to play both positions. He is probably better suited to C long term, but is a guy that can come in and help out right away.

56. NO- LB- M. Foster- Washington
The Saints need to address the LB position, either by adding a MLB or WLB. I think Foster is best suited to play WLB for the Saints, and allow Jonathan Vilma to stay at MLB.

57. Sea- OT/OG- O. Franklin- Miami
The Seahawks need help at a number of positions, so they take the best player on their board, which happens to be Orlando Franklin. He’s best suited to play OG, although he does have the length to play RT.

58. Atl (Mia via Bal)- WR- R. Cobb- Kentucky
They got a playmaking TE earlier in round 2, now the Falcons come back and grab a playmaking WR to pair with Roddy White. With no DE of value at this point, giving Matt Ryan another weapon makes sense.

59. NE (Atl)- C- R. Hudson- Florida State
I know a lot of you don’t like this pick but I really don’t care. I think Hudson will be a Pro Bowl Center either in New England or somewhere else.

60. NE- OT/OG- J. Carpenter- Alabama
Back to back picks, and back to back O-Lineman. Carpenter could play RT if Matt Light isn’t retained, or he could slot in at OG where I think he would be a beast.

61. Min (SD)- LB- M. Wilson- Illinois
Chad Greenway was franchised and Ben Leber is a FA so LB needs to be addressed. Martez Wilson is a talented and versatile LB that could help the Vikings in a number of ways.

62. Chi- WR- G. Little- UNC
They still need to address their O-Line, but I don’t think there is great value for them here. Instead they go BPA which is WR Greg Little from UNC.

63. Pit- OT- M. Gilbert- Florida
The Steelers also need help at O-Line. With no OG’s worth taking at this point, they go for the top OT available in Marcus Gilbert for Florida who is rising up draft boards.

64. GB- DT- J. Jenkins-Clemson
They addressed OL in round 1, now they need to address the DL. They could easily go OLB with Sam Acho, but with the uncertainty at DE, they go for the very solid Jarvis Jenkins.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Round 3

65. Car- DT- J. Casey- USC

66. Cin- CB- C. Brown- Texas

67. Den- DE- S. Acho- Texas

68. Buf- QB- R. Stanzi- Iowa

69. Ari- CB- B. Burton

70. Cle- CB/S- M. Gilchrist- Clemson

71. Cle (Dal)- DT- T. McClain- South Florida

72. TRADE NE (from NO)- NT- K. Ellis- Hampton
NO trades 3 (72) to NE for 3 (74) + 2013 6th
A small trade up for the Pats to get ahead of Houston for Kenrick Ellis. With no reason for the Saints not to move down, not much compensation is required.

73. Hou- NT- S. Fua- Stanford

74. NO (NE)- DE- A. Bailey- Miami

75. Det- OLB- B. Carter- UNC

76. TRADE- NE (from SF)- OG- C. Boling- Georgia
SF trades 3(76) + 7(231) to NE for 3(91) + 4 (113)
The final piece to the interior O-Line puzzle, the Pats move up to grab Clint Boling, who falls this far because he doesn’t offer great versatility. He doesn’t project well at tackle, but he will be a very solid OG in the NFL.

77. Ari (Tenn)- WR- J. Jernigan-Troy

78. Stl- RB- D. Thomas- Kansas State

79. Atl (Mia)- OG- W. Rackley- Lehigh

80. Jax- WR- T. Young- Boise State

81. Oak- CB- J. Patrick- Louisville

82. SD- OLB- D. Moch- Nevada

83. NYG- LB- Q. Strudivant- UNC

84. TB- TE- L. Kendricks- Wisconsin

85. Phi- SS- T. Sash- Iowa

86. KC- NT- J Powe- Ole Miss

87. Ind- RB- T. Jones- Eastern Washington

88. NO- RB- S. Vereen- Cal

89. SD- OT- J. Reid- UCF

90. Bal- WR- J. Baldwin- Pitt

91. SF (NE, Atl)- OLB- C. Carter- Fresno State

92. TRADE- Jax (from NE)- S- D.McDaniel- Clemson
NE trades 3(92) to Jacksonville for 4(114) + 4(121)

93. Chi- OT- J. Barksdale- LSU

94. NYJ- DL- L. Guy- Arizona State

95. Pit- ILB- C. Matthews- Oregon

96. GB- OT- J. Pinkston- Pitt

97. Car- TE- L. Stocker- Tennessee



Round 4

98. Car- DT- I. Williams- ND

99. Sea- CB- S. Wright- USC

100. Buf- TE- J. Cameron- USC

101. Chi- C- K. O’Dowd- USC

102. Cle- OT- J. Brewer- Indiana

103. Ari- OG- D. Love- Arkansas

104. Phi- OG- J. Moffitt- Wisconsin

105. Hou- WR- E. Gates- Abilene Christian

106. Min- CB- J. Brown- Colorado

107. Wash (Min)- WR- T. Tolliver- LSU

108. NE (SF)- RB- D. Murray- Oklahoma

109. Ari (Tenn)- FS- C. Conte

110. Cle- SS/CB- A. Black- Florida

111. Mia- FS- R. Sands- West Virginia

112. Stl- OG- S. Schilling- Michigan

113. Oak- C- T. Barnes- Missouri


114. TRADE- KC (NE via Jax)- WR- T. Doss- Indiana
NE trades 4 (114) to KC for 5 (135) + 5 (140)

115. SF (NE via SF) – RB- K. Hunter- Oklahoma State

116. TB- OT- L. Ziemba- Auburn

117. NYG- OT- C. Hairston- Clemson

118. KC- RB- J. Todman- UConn

119. Ind- ILB- C. McCarthy- Miami

120. Phi- OLB- G. Jones- Michigan State

121. NE (Jax)- DE- G. Romeus- Pitt

122. Buf- WR- G. Salas- Hawaii

123. Bal- CB- C. Chekwa- Ohio State

124. Atl- DE- P. McPhee- Miss State

125. NE- FS- D. Williams- UNC

126. NYJ- CB- B. Hogan- West Virginia

127. Chi- OG- Z. Hurd- UConn

128. Pit- RB- J. Rodgers- Oregon State

129. GB- RB- D. Carter- Syracuse

130. Tenn- OG- K. Williams- Nebraska

131. GB- OLB- P. Allen- Nebraska




5- 135- QB- G. McElroy- Alabama

5- 140- WR- A. Pettis- Boise State

5- 159- CB- C. Brown- Texas

6- 193- DT- C. Thornton- Southern Arkansas

7- 229- RB- B. Saine- Ohio State

7- 230- RB- G. Cooper- Miami

7- 231- DT- A. Taylor- Oklahoma



Pats Picks

1 (17) - DE/OLB- Da’Quan Bowers- Clemson
He’s been well discussed on this board, and I don’t think I can say anything else that hasn’t already been said. I really like this kid and I truly believe he is going to be a superstar in the NFL. He might never be a 12-14 sack guy for NE, but I think he can be a monster run stuffing OLB, that puts up 6-8 sacks in the Willie McGinest mold.

1 (28) - DE- Cameron Heyward- Ohio State
I think Heyward is by far the best fit at DE for the Patriots two gap 3-4. He has question marks over his consistency, but his talent is undeniable. I think he can come in here and compete, and add some athleticism and versatility to the RDE position as he develops into a very good NFL player.

2 (59) - C- Rodney Hudson- Florida State
Many people on this board don’t like Hudson because he is undersized or they feel he gets pushed around by bigger D-Lineman. I don’t see that on the tape. He plays with great strength and leverage and always gets the job done. He may get bumped off the line initially by a stronger DT, but he has a great ability to reset and get the job done. Only giving up 1.5 sacks in his 4 years at Florida State, without giving up a sack or QB pressure in his final 2 years is incredible. He hasn’t been playing against lesser competition; he has been playing against some of the top D-lineman in the country, such as Marvin Austin, Robert Quinn, Allen Bailey, Marcus Forston, Jarvis Jenkins and many others over the past 2 years. Mike Mayock thinks this guy is going to be a pro bowler one day, I completely agree.

2 (60) - OT/G- James Carpenter- Alabama
This is a guy that I’ve really enjoyed watching all season. He is a big strong kid that projects at both RT and OG. I think he can be a very solid RT in the NFL, but I think his best position will be OG, where I think he can be one of the best in the league. He’s got a wide base and great frame for a Guard, and a mean streak and attitude you look for in an O-lineman. I really like this guy but I am concerned he could go even higher than 60 on draft day.

3 (72) - NT- Kenrick Ellis- Hampton
DL is a priority, and one of my main concerns is Vince Wilfork is being overworked. I think adding a legitimate NT that can take the pressure off big Vince as well as offer some scheme versatility could be a huge asset. Ellis brings All-Pro potential at NT, but also some baggage. He has character concerns, but from what I have seen and read about him, he seems to have grown up in the last year and hopefully turned the corner. I love his potential and think he is worth the risk in round 3.

3 (76) - OG- Clint Boling- Georgia
Boling is exactly the kind of guy the Pats should be looking for at OG. He shouldn’t be drafted too high because he doesn’t have the ability to play OT in the NFL, but I think he can be a very good OG. He will never be a superstar, but he will be a very solid, hardworking contributor that you can plug into your OL for the next decade.

4 (108) - RB- Demarco Murray- Oklahoma
RB is obviously a need with only two guys currently on the roster, but I wouldn’t overdraft someone, especially when we can get someone like Demarco Murray in the early 4th round. I love his versatility and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. I don’t think he will be a feature back in the NFL, but he will be a very good change of pace, complimentary RB to BJGE and Woodhead. Great value and talent at this point of the draft.

4 (121) - DE/OLB- Greg Romeus- Pitt
With so many picks we can take a chance on some guys with injury concerns. Romeus is a guy that many of us really like and would take a chance on in the draft. He was once considered a 1st round pick, and potential top 10 pick, but injury derailed his 2010 season and threaten his 2011 season. I think he has the talent to spend a draft pick on and redshirt for a year to allow him develop, hopefully into a pass rushing demon off the edge.

4 (125) - FS- Deunta Williams- UNC
Like Romeus, Deunta Williams was once considered a 1st round pick, but injury and a down 2010 season have really hurt his stock. After his 2009 season he was seen as an elite ball hawking FS, but his performance in 2010 was somewhat of a letdown. Playing on a decimated and disappointing UNC team in 2010, his performance really suffered. Then a major injury in the bowl game really destroyed his draft stock. I believe the talent is still there and I would absolutely take a chance on this guy in the late fourth round as another redshirt candidate. He is a potential Pro Bowl FS.

 

[Wilfork#75]

5 (135)- QB- Greg McElroy- Alabama
Brian Hoyer’s job is pretty easy, so we don’t want to let him get complacent. Competition is always a good thing, and developing QB’s is good business in the NFL. McElroy is a great fit for the Pats, and I think he is a perfect backup QB candidate. He is the most pro-ready QB in this class and could come in and push Hoyer for the backup QB position. A smart and efficient leader, McElroy was born to be a Patriot.

5 (140)- WR- Austin Pettis- Boise State
I think WR is an underrated need for the Pats with questions over each of our wideouts. I wouldn’t spend a high pick on one unless it was AJ Green or Julio Jones, but another developmental guy in the mid rounds makes sense. What I believe is missing for the Pats is a big, physical WR that can go over the middle, or go up and get it in a jump ball situation. I don’t think Pettis would push for a spot right away, but I think if he could follow the Taylor Price path, he could be a very good receiver in 2012 onwards. He has great hands and amazing body control for a big frame, but his route running is raw and he needs some coaching. He he also offers the versatility as a backup holder, which can never be underestimated.

5 (159)- CB- Chykie Brown- Texas
Chykie Brown has 1st round athleticism, but he is very, very raw. He needs help in a lot of area, and the depth of this CB class has pushed him into the 5th round. I think he is a great developmental guy that has a ton of upside, and little downside as a late 5th round pick. His tackling and footwork are poor so he likely won’t contribute on defence right away, but he could be a solid special teamer and developmental CB.

6 (193)- DL- Cedrick Thornton- Southern Arkansas
Cedrick Thornton is a guy I’ve been interested in for quite a while. He dominated at a lower level in 2009, but struggled through injury in 2010. He is an explosive and dominant athlete that I believe could become a monster sub rushing DL, who we could groom to take over from Mike Wright, or push for a spot against Myron Pryor. Great value and potential for a 6th round pick. Huge upside as an interior pass rusher.

7 (229) - RB- Brandon Saine- Ohio State
With no CBA in place and teams unable to sign UDFA’s, the Pats grab 3 late 7th rounders to get a jump start on these players. Brandon Saine is a very interesting RB that I think is being overlooked by many in this draft. He has a good size and speed combo, and offers great versatility as a pass catcher. He’s not a traditional between the tackles RB, but I see him as a poor man’s Demarco Murray, a guy that can do it all. He can either offer great versatility as a RB and receiver, or could just be a developmental guy on the practice squad.

7 (230) - RB- Graig Cooper- Miami
Graig Cooper is another guy that was once highly rated before injury struck. 18 months ago he was a 1st round pick that was rated very similarly to Mark Ingram. However, injury has really derailed his career so far and dropped him into the 7th/UDFA range. I would take a chance on him, and IR him for a year to try and get him back the potential feature back in the NFL. If he can get healthy he will be the steal of the NFL draft.

7 (231) - DT- Adrian Taylor- Oklahoma
Like Romeus, Williams and Cooper before him, Adrian Taylor is yet another guy that was once considered a potential 1st round draft pick before injury kicked in. He has had some back luck with some horror injuries over the past two years, but he has the talent to take a chance on at this stage of the draft. Like the others he will need to IR for a year to try to get healthy, but if he can he is a really interesting guy. He lacks the ideal height and length to be a base DE in the Pats system, although he does have a great anchor and plays with very good technique for this system. I think the best way to use him would be as a developmental NT, because he has a great natural anchor and good technique. He’s 6’3” and currently 311lbs, but he has the frame to add more weight. If he can get healthy and bulk up he could be a very intriguing player to watch in the future.


Final Thoughts

Yes I have added 16 draft picks to the Pats this year, and yes that is a lot considering the number of roster sports available. But with the uncertainty around the CBA and the signing of UDFA’s, I have picked up some extra 7th round picks to get a head start on UDFA’s. I have also drafted 4 guys that will likely be IR'd for the 2011 season, and who essentially become 2012 draft picks. With the uncertainty around the CBA I wouldn’t look to move any high picks forward into 2012 because of the potential risks involved, and because we have 2 assets which I would try to trade off for picks once the CBA is done. I still don’t think that Logan Mankins will be a Patriot long term, so I think the best option would be to trade him once the CBA gets done and move on. His trade value has often been discussed, but once the draft is completed we should have a much better idea of what we could get for him. With the way this draft plays out I think the best option would be to trade Mankins to Chicago, ideally for their 2012 1st. The other guy I think we need to cut ties with is Brandon Meriweather. If we can resign Jared Page I think we have enough depth and talent to be fine at FS without him. While he is talented, I think his style of play is detrimental to the team, and I don’t see him changing it now. After two Pro Bowls he should have decent trade value, and I think trading him to a team like Jacksonville for their 2012 2nd would be a fair deal.

 

[State]

Phenomenal effort.

Two glaring problems, though. I would be in heaven if Bowers fell all the way to us at #17. I don't think we'll get that lucky, though. I see him being taken no later than #13.

And Kyle Rudolph has first round or early second round written all over him. I think with the success of Gronk, it's an easy sell to pull the trigger on a guy like that. Conventional wisdom in Atlanta, as I wrote about, is that the Falcons find a replacement for the aging Tony Gonzalez with their first-round pick.

I agree with you on OG Rodney Hudson. He reminds me of the center the Dolphins had in the early 80s who was undersized but lightning quick and a pro-bowler.

For you younger folk, here he is: Hall of Famers » DWIGHT STEPHENSON

I'm glad you had us taking Clint Boling.

If the draft worked out this way, it'll be the best one we've had since the 1995 Parcells great one of Ty Law, Ted Johnson, Curtis Martin, Jimmy Hitch****. But it would be better, with far more quality picks.

This is a deeper draft than is normally the case, IMHO. So staying put has a lot going for it.

I'm not a big fan of giving up that first pick in the second round, though. First-round talent for a second-round price tag.

 

[borg]

Love the effort......but...
Taking 3 offensive linemen by pick #76 ? Looks like you expect Mankins to be gone and the interior of the line to be rebuilt. Can't see BB going to this extreme...2 picks is more realistic. Three rookies suiting up out of 8, to protect TB and his knee, all to help move forward a 14-2 team?????
If Bowers drops to #17, then there is a major medical problem, and BB doesn't roll dice in round #1
16 picks?.....about 8 too many. Despite the 2012 worries, I can't see a judge blowing up drafts for all the pro sports. Like gambling on IR picks, BB will move picks forward into 2012...it's in his DNA
RB....Delone Carter is the call. I predict Faulk will be back for 1 year as the Jack of all trades guy and insurance for Woodhead, which leaves a spot for a bowling ball with a butcher's knife. I've been told that Carter is high on their list.

PS.....if Miami could swing both Mallet and Ingram...that would be phenomenal

 

[Wilfork#75]

Kyle Rudolph has first round or early second round written all over him. I think with the success of Gronk, it's an easy sell to pull the trigger on a guy like that. Conventional wisdom in Atlanta, as I wrote about, is that the Falcons find a replacement for the aging Tony Gonzalez with their first-round pick.

I completely agree that Rudolph has 1st round talent, I just had a really hard time finding who would take him that high. With no FA before the draft I'm still not sure whether teams will draft on talent or need. If teams draft on need I think he will drop because not many teams have TE as a primary need. If teams draft on value he could easily go much higher, but I'm not sure where. The Bills are an option but I think they have too many holes to go TE that early. I think by trading out of round 1 Atlanta has the ability to pick their spot where they go up to get him.

I'm not a big fan of giving up that first pick in the second round, though. First-round talent for a second-round price tag

The 33rd pick is a very interesting one, whether we should keep it or trade it. Value wise we should get a good deal in a trade, but it all depends on who is left on the board. The way this played out I didn't really like the options available. Danny Watkins was there, but I don't think there is that much difference between him and Boling or Carpenter. Derek Sherrod is still on the board but I would prefer to address the OT position next year in a much stronger Tackle class. And the other realistic option is RB, but I don't think I would take Leshoure at 33 and I'm not a fan of Ryan Williams. If Mark Ingram was on the board I would take a long hard look, but he wasn't so I traded back.

Love the effort......but...
Taking 3 offensive linemen by pick #76 ? Looks like you expect Mankins to be gone and the interior of the line to be rebuilt. Can't see BB going to this extreme...2 picks is more realistic. Three rookies suiting up out of 8, to protect TB and his knee, all to help move forward a 14-2 team?????

As I said in at the end I don't see Mankins here long term, so I would look to trade him once the new CBA is in place. Add to that Neal's retirement that is at least 2 empty spots. The question is do you think Carpenter, Boling and Hudson are upgrades over Wendell or Ohrnberger. I think they are, so I can see all of them making the roster.

If Bowers drops to #17, then there is a major medical problem, and BB doesn't roll dice in round #1

I think the damage has already been done to Bowers draft stock, and even if his knee checks out he will fall. And I don't think many top 15 teams would take the risk on the guy when they have so many needs. They are drafting in the top 15 for a reason, and they need safe picks. The two most likely destinations for Bowers are Minnesota and Detroit, but in this scenerio Minnesota trades back for a QB, and Tyron Smith falls to Detroit.

16 picks?.....about 8 too many. Despite the 2012 worries, I can't see a judge blowing up drafts for all the pro sports. Like gambling on IR picks, BB will move picks forward into 2012...it's in his DNA

Every year the Pats will add about 20 rookies, either by the draft or UDFA's. With such uncertainty around the CBA I think it would be a smart move to get some extra late round picks to get a head start on those UDFA's. I think it would make the whole process a lot smoother, rather than waiting for the CBA to get done and try to sign more guys when FA starts.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Tremendous effort.

I am with you on Thornton. Lot of potential.

Another thing to consider, regardless of who or how many players BB takes, with no rookie symposium or mini camps or rookie camps, these rookies come in stone cold on the playbook and technique work.

If ever there was a year to draft smart technically sound players, this might be it.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I am with you on Thornton. Lot of potential.

I can't believe we haven't heard more about this guy. He has been absolutely dominant at a lower level of competition, although his combine numbers were quite disapointing. He isn't a fit as a base DE, but he is a great penetrator and makes some monstorous hits. I've only seen limited tape on him, and it was pretty poor quality (but what do you expect from Southern Arkansas), but he looked like a man among boys.

These are his combine numbers:
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 309lbs
Arm Length: 33 5/8 in.
Hand Size 10 in.

40 yard dash: 5.26
Bench Press: 23
Vert Jump: 27
Broad Jump: 101.0
3 Cone Drill: 7.7
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.71

These were very disapointing numbers because I thought he played a lot faster on tape. However, I believe he played around 295, so bulking up to 309 may have had an effect on those numbers. Either way he's a guy I would at least like work out just too see what he's got.

 

[DarrylS]

When I read this it makes my brain hurt.. too much information will never be able to follow.

 

[patfanken]

Wow What an effort. I was thinking of doing a mock too, but after seeing that effort I am.....thoroughly intimidated.

OK now to cutting you up

As I was going through you first round, I was pissed that we didn't make the same move on JJ Watt that SD did. We certainly have the ammo. BUT Bowers was a great consolation prize for me. I'd be OK if that were the result

OK with Ironhead Jr at 28. I know its crazy but Vernon Gholston has made me very scared of OSU DEs.

On the #33 - I'm fine with trading it, BUT I can't see moving out of the 30's without a HUGH premium for THE premium pick of the 2nd day,

I can see your love for Hudson, and although I am old enough to appreciate Dwight Stevenson, I am worried about Hudson's size problem. As I discussed in another thread, more and more teams are looking to pressure the middle as a defense against the short passing attack. So it would seem that as the game evolves, bulk over speed becomes the bigger asset. Remember when Stevenson ruled the C position, most teams were in 4-3's, so He rarely had to face 330 pounders on an every down basis. I love the player, but I can't see it happening for BB

On a philosphofical basis I am polar opposite your strategy of getting so many (16) picks. You see this as a deep draft, I don't. You fear a long term lock out that essentially negates the availability of such a deep and rich FA class, I don't.

With our current roster make up, 5-7 picks are plenty IF....they are the right ones. That means getting 4 picks high enough that they are good enough to be at LEAST situational starters on our roster. I think you do that with the first 3 picks. After that the Pats will be pretty much stocking OTHER teams rosters and PS's with their draft picks.

We need to come out with elite (for this draft) DE and OLB prospects. A OLman who can compete for a starting job at RG, and a developmental RB and WR, and at least red shirt selection

I think you are right about Mankins and wrong about Merriweather

If you really feel the need to add camp arms to the mix, then McElroy could be had in the 7th or as an UDFA the 5th is way too high for him not that I care that much either way.

I REALLY LIKE your concept of using this draft stock up of "red shirt" selections. If the purpose of all those picks was to take those kinds of high risk/reward shots then I'm all for it. It one out of 3 and its a HUGE win. But even then created 5 picks too many.

I am not afraid of there not being a draft in the future, but I am not a fan to trading any of these picks into the future. I want to use all our early picks to secure the 3 "elite" prospects I mentioned about. For me it would be Kerrigan, Watt and any one of a half dozen OLmen who will be available in the 30's ou have Bowers, Heywood, and Carpenter. Tomaytos....Tomatos.....as long as we get the job done

Again. thanks for the great read.

 

[MaineMan]

I completely agree that Rudolph has 1st round talent, I just had a really hard time finding who would take him that high. With no FA before the draft I'm still not sure whether teams will draft on talent or need. If teams draft on need I think he will drop because not many teams have TE as a primary need. If teams draft on value he could easily go much higher, but I'm not sure where. The Bills are an option but I think they have too many holes to go TE that early. I think by trading out of round 1 Atlanta has the ability to pick their spot where they go up to get him.



The 33rd pick is a very interesting one, whether we should keep it or trade it. Value wise we should get a good deal in a trade, but it all depends on who is left on the board. The way this played out I didn't really like the options available. Danny Watkins was there, but I don't think there is that much difference between him and Boling or Carpenter. Derek Sherrod is still on the board but I would prefer to address the OT position next year in a much stronger Tackle class. And the other realistic option is RB, but I don't think I would take Leshoure at 33 and I'm not a fan of Ryan Williams. If Mark Ingram was on the board I would take a long hard look, but he wasn't so I traded back.



As I said in at the end I don't see Mankins here long term, so I would look to trade him once the new CBA is in place. Add to that Neal's retirement that is at least 2 empty spots. The question is do you think Carpenter, Boling and Hudson are upgrades over Wendell or Ohrnberger. I think they are, so I can see all of them making the roster.



I think the damage has already been done to Bowers draft stock, and even if his knee checks out he will fall. And I don't think many top 15 teams would take the risk on the guy when they have so many needs. They are drafting in the top 15 for a reason, and they need safe picks. The two most likely destinations for Bowers are Minnesota and Detroit, but in this scenerio Minnesota trades back for a QB, and Tyron Smith falls to Detroit.



Every year the Pats will add about 20 rookies, either by the draft or UDFA's. With such uncertainty around the CBA I think it would be a smart move to get some extra late round picks to get a head start on those UDFA's. I think it would make the whole process a lot smoother, rather than waiting for the CBA to get done and try to sign more guys when FA starts.

Truly a Magnum Opus (which, I believe is Latin for "Very Large Cartoon Penguin").

I also like your responses here.

 

[AzPatsFan]

5 (135)- QB- Greg McElroy- Alabama
Brian Hoyer’s job is pretty easy, so we don’t want to let him get complacent. Competition is always a good thing, and developing QB’s is good business in the NFL. McElroy is a great fit for the Pats, and I think he is a perfect backup QB candidate. He is the most pro-ready QB in this class and could come in and push Hoyer for the backup QB position. A smart and efficient leader, McElroy was born to be a Patriot.

5 (140)- WR- Austin Pettis- Boise State
I think WR is an underrated need for the Pats with questions over each of our wideouts. I wouldn’t spend a high pick on one unless it was AJ Green or Julio Jones, but another developmental guy in the mid rounds makes sense. What I believe is missing for the Pats is a big, physical WR that can go over the middle, or go up and get it in a jump ball situation. I don’t think Pettis would push for a spot right away, but I think if he could follow the Taylor Price path, he could be a very good receiver in 2012 onwards. He has great hands and amazing body control for a big frame, but his route running is raw and he needs some coaching. He he also offers the versatility as a backup holder, which can never be underestimated.

5 (159)- CB- Chykie Brown- Texas
Chykie Brown has 1st round athleticism, but he is very, very raw. He needs help in a lot of area, and the depth of this CB class has pushed him into the 5th round. I think he is a great developmental guy that has a ton of upside, and little downside as a late 5th round pick. His tackling and footwork are poor so he likely won’t contribute on defence right away, but he could be a solid special teamer and developmental CB.

6 (193)- DL- Cedrick Thornton- Southern Arkansas
Cedrick Thornton is a guy I’ve been interested in for quite a while. He dominated at a lower level in 2009, but struggled through injury in 2010. He is an explosive and dominant athlete that I believe could become a monster sub rushing DL, who we could groom to take over from Mike Wright, or push for a spot against Myron Pryor. Great value and potential for a 6th round pick. Huge upside as an interior pass rusher.

7 (229) - RB- Brandon Saine- Ohio State
With no CBA in place and teams unable to sign UDFA’s, the Pats grab 3 late 7th rounders to get a jump start on these players. Brandon Saine is a very interesting RB that I think is being overlooked by many in this draft. He has a good size and speed combo, and offers great versatility as a pass catcher. He’s not a traditional between the tackles RB, but I see him as a poor man’s Demarco Murray, a guy that can do it all. He can either offer great versatility as a RB and receiver, or could just be a developmental guy on the practice squad.

7 (230) - RB- Graig Cooper- Miami
Graig Cooper is another guy that was once highly rated before injury struck. 18 months ago he was a 1st round pick that was rated very similarly to Mark Ingram. However, injury has really derailed his career so far and dropped him into the 7th/UDFA range. I would take a chance on him, and IR him for a year to try and get him back the potential feature back in the NFL. If he can get healthy he will be the steal of the NFL draft.

7 (231) - DT- Adrian Taylor- Oklahoma
Like Romeus, Williams and Cooper before him, Adrian Taylor is yet another guy that was once considered a potential 1st round draft pick before injury kicked in. He has had some back luck with some horror injuries over the past two years, but he has the talent to take a chance on at this stage of the draft. Like the others he will need to IR for a year to try to get healthy, but if he can he is a really interesting guy. He lacks the ideal height and length to be a base DE in the Pats system, although he does have a great anchor and plays with very good technique for this system. I think the best way to use him would be as a developmental NT, because he has a great natural anchor and good technique. He’s 6’3” and currently 311lbs, but he has the frame to add more weight. If he can get healthy and bulk up he could be a very intriguing player to watch in the future.


Final Thoughts

Yes I have added 16 draft picks to the Pats this year, and yes that is a lot considering the number of roster sports available. But with the uncertainty around the CBA and the signing of UDFA’s, I have picked up some extra 7th round picks to get a head start on UDFA’s. I have also drafted 4 guys that will likely be IR'd for the 2011 season, and who essentially become 2012 draft picks. With the uncertainty around the CBA I wouldn’t look to move any high picks forward into 2012 because of the potential risks involved, and because we have 2 assets which I would try to trade off for picks once the CBA is done. I still don’t think that Logan Mankins will be a Patriot long term, so I think the best option would be to trade him once the CBA gets done and move on. His trade value has often been discussed, but once the draft is completed we should have a much better idea of what we could get for him. With the way this draft plays out I think the best option would be to trade Mankins to Chicago, ideally for their 2012 1st. The other guy I think we need to cut ties with is Brandon Meriweather. If we can resign Jared Page I think we have enough depth and talent to be fine at FS without him. While he is talented, I think his style of play is detrimental to the team, and I don’t see him changing it now. After two Pro Bowls he should have decent trade value, and I think trading him to a team like Jacksonville for their 2012 2nd would be a fair deal.

I see what you did, and I agree with your basic assumption. If future draft picks are more problematical now, than stockpile the future picks instead, as red-shirt (injured) players who would have been drafted higher. But you have over done it, perhaps to emphasize the process.

UNC's OLB and Pitts' OLB candidate are the few guys to redshirt. At that one position, BB objects to spending sure high picks for conversion projections. As a winner, he never drafts high enough to get the genuine, no-question-asked, article. Don't forget that Willie McGinest was the #4 pick in the draft. Richard Seymour was the #6 pick in the draft his year. He traded Seymour hoping for a Top Five pick in return and didn't get it. But Namukung Suh was there in the Raider range in the previous year's draft.

There is a drawback to red-shirting over stockpiling future draft picks. You don't incur cost with a future pick, but an injury redshirt costs real money, and would count against the CAP, while being unable to play. OTOH, you can begin the transition to a pro player with a red-shirt, that you can't with a future draft pick. So if you are going to do so, do it at positions that rookies are seldom ready to perform in BB's system, and require seasoning anyway. OLB and WRs are two such positions.

I do like your approach to the O-Line as it has been my observation that BB likes talented, but not super costly Blue Chippers on the O-line. He knows in a CAP league, not everyone can be afforded at a Blue Chipper price. A squad of second round good, sound, Red Chippers is what he usually has drafted and used on the O-line. Light, Klemm, and Volmer were all second round picks, and Mankins might as well have been. But he always seems to draft left tackle candidates until the tail end of the draft, and moves them elsewhere to RT, OG or C if necessary. LT Carpenter might qualify, in his eyes, but G Hudson, Boling, or Watkins don't.

Meanwhile he has spent First round picks on the Defensive Linemen. McGinnest, Seymour, Wilfork and Ty Warren were al First rounders. BB has imported several to get a year or two out of them, at the tail end of their careers. Guys like Washington, G Warren, Stroud, Damione Lewis etc.

Congratulations on an exhaustive demonstration of your theory. It is Ernie Adams like.

:rocker:

 

[VJCPatriot]

I appreciate the effort youv'e put into this mock but I disagree about how things pan out at the top of the draft. For one, I don't see Julio Jones overtaking AJ Green as the top WR. This flip flop of receivers will effect the rest of the draft. For another, I don't see the Cards allowing Ten to leap up into their draft slot when QB is just as pressing a need for them. If Gabbert is still there at #5 they will definitely draft him. I think it far more likely that there will be a bidding war for slot #2 where one QB needy team moves up for Gabbert's services. Fairley has also been connected to Tennessee, so I don't see him making it past #8 if he falls to the Titans.

Next I see Jake Locker being taken at either #10 or #12. Both Washington and Minnesota are QB needy teams. Is Locker the right guy? Who knows. I don't think he is, but those are two teams that need to make a splash and one of them will pull the trigger on a QB, whether it be Jake or another guy (perhaps Mallet or even Ponder but Jake's name is the one mentioned most often). Again this affects the draft drastically.

Now as for Da'Quan Bowers falling to 17. I absolutely could see that happening. I'm just not convinced that the Pats will be willing to risk the health issues, if about 20 other teams in the NFL are put off by that as well. Next if Chicago wanted Watkins, why wouldn't they have just pulled the trigger on him at #29 instead of moving down and risk losing him?

I'll agree that #33 is a likely trade down candidate for the Pats. However that mid 40s pick is an ideal place to select a solid player. They can go for a skill player, a cornerback, or an offensive lineman. I don't see them moving out of it again unless they get some great value out of it.

I'm not going to comment on Hudson except to say he shares the same weaknesses as Koppen, good technique, but lacks the size and strength to match up with the big NTs/DTs the Pats will be facing in the playoffs such as Ngata, Raji, etc. AKA Koppen gets Overpowered. I would be reluctant to spend a 2nd round pick to get 'more of the same'.

16 picks is also way too much. If we do this, half of those guys will be joining other teams instead, so I don't find the value in that, see Mills, Garrett. Again, good effort, and interesting read, but I don't see the draft unfolding that way.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I appreciate the effort youv'e put into this mock but I disagree about how things pan out at the top of the draft. For one, I don't see Julio Jones overtaking AJ Green as the top WR. This flip flop of receivers will effect the rest of the draft. For another, I don't see the Cards allowing Ten to leap up into their draft slot when QB is just as pressing a need for them. If Gabbert is still there at #5 they will definitely draft him. I think it far more likely that there will be a bidding war for slot #2 where one QB needy team moves up for Gabbert's services..

Awesome job on this mock. I have a couple of notes on this this comment. I suspect that there will indeed be a flipflop with Jones and A.J.Green because of Jone's obvious drive and athletic skills (.e.g. the Combine). As far as Gabbert...I see bust written all over him...but that's just me.

As far as the mock I did not see much in the way of safety/CB help. I suspect that Kraft really really wants to dump the Gangsta Safety and get a high character DBs in his place--this makes me think that the Patriots will go after Ras-I Dowling....

 

[VJCPatriot]

Awesome job on this mock. I have a couple of notes on this this comment. I suspect that there will indeed be a flipflop with Jones and A.J.Green because of Jone's obvious drive and athletic skills (.e.g. the Combine). As far as Gabbert...I see bust written all over him...but that's just me.

Does it really matter? I think Locker's going to be a bust as well, that won't stop him from going top 12. It didn't stop Akili Smith from being a #5 pick or JaMarcus Russell from being the #1 overall. Teams that have desperate needs at QB will draft for potential and often overlook the warts and warning signs.

As far as the mock I did not see much in the way of safety/CB help. I suspect that Kraft really really wants to dump the Gangsta Safety and get a high character DBs in his place--this makes me think that the Patriots will go after Ras-I Dowling....

A CB to S conversion project is a possiblity in the 3rd round or later. I don't think the Pats will force the issue however because this year's draft is weak at safety. Drafting a poorly graded player just to fill a need is just a waste of a pick.

 

[MaineMan]

I see what you did, and I agree with your basic assumption. If future draft picks are more problematical now, than stockpile the future picks instead, as red-shirt (injured) players who would have been drafted higher. But you have over done it, perhaps to emphasize the process.

UNC's OLB and Pitts' OLB candidate are the few guys to redshirt. At that one position, BB objects to spending sure high picks for conversion projections. As a winner, he never drafts high enough to get the genuine, no-question-asked, article. Don't forget that Willie McGinest was the #4 pick in the draft. Richard Seymour was the #6 pick in the draft his year. He traded Seymour hoping for a Top Five pick in return and didn't get it. But Namukung Suh was there in the Raider range in the previous year's draft.

There is a drawback to red-shirting over stockpiling future draft picks. You don't incur cost with a future pick, but an injury redshirt costs real money, and would count against the CAP, while being unable to play. OTOH, you can begin the transition to a pro player with a red-shirt, that you can't with a future draft pick. So if you are going to do so, do it at positions that rookies are seldom ready to perform in BB's system, and require seasoning anyway. OLB and WRs are two such positions.

I do like your approach to the O-Line as it has been my observation that BB likes talented, but not super costly Blue Chippers on the O-line. He knows in a CAP league, not everyone can be afforded at a Blue Chipper price. A squad of second round good, sound, Red Chippers is what he usually has drafted and used on the O-line. Light, Klemm, and Volmer were all second round picks, and Mankins might as well have been. But he always seems to draft left tackle candidates until the tail end of the draft, and moves them elsewhere to RT, OG or C if necessary. LT Carpenter might qualify, in his eyes, but G Hudson, Boling, or Watkins don't.

Meanwhile he has spent First round picks on the Defensive Linemen. McGinnest, Seymour, Wilfork and Ty Warren were al First rounders. BB has imported several to get a year or two out of them, at the tail end of their careers. Guys like Washington, G Warren, Stroud, Damione Lewis etc.

Congratulations on an exhaustive demonstration of your theory. It is Ernie Adams like.

:rocker:

BB didn't draft McGinest, Parcells did. Moreover, as a college DE drafted high into a 34 defense as an OLB, McGinest (like Ware, Maybin, Gholston) is one of only a handful or so over the past 15-20 years. And a significant percentage of those underperformed or busted flat, making McGinest even MORE of a rarity. So, what was that again about a "genuine, no-questions-asked article"?

Also, AFAIK, players on IR don't count against the cap.

 

[Off The Grid]

5 (135)- QB- Greg McElroy- Alabama
Brian Hoyer’s job is pretty easy, so we don’t want to let him get complacent. Competition is always a good thing, and developing QB’s is good business in the NFL. McElroy is a great fit for the Pats, and I think he is a perfect backup QB candidate. He is the most pro-ready QB in this class and could come in and push Hoyer for the backup QB position. A smart and efficient leader, McElroy was born to be a Patriot.

5 (140)- WR- Austin Pettis- Boise State
I think WR is an underrated need for the Pats with questions over each of our wideouts. I wouldn’t spend a high pick on one unless it was AJ Green or Julio Jones, but another developmental guy in the mid rounds makes sense. What I believe is missing for the Pats is a big, physical WR that can go over the middle, or go up and get it in a jump ball situation. I don’t think Pettis would push for a spot right away, but I think if he could follow the Taylor Price path, he could be a very good receiver in 2012 onwards. He has great hands and amazing body control for a big frame, but his route running is raw and he needs some coaching. He he also offers the versatility as a backup holder, which can never be underestimated.

5 (159)- CB- Chykie Brown- Texas
Chykie Brown has 1st round athleticism, but he is very, very raw. He needs help in a lot of area, and the depth of this CB class has pushed him into the 5th round. I think he is a great developmental guy that has a ton of upside, and little downside as a late 5th round pick. His tackling and footwork are poor so he likely won’t contribute on defence right away, but he could be a solid special teamer and developmental CB.

6 (193)- DL- Cedrick Thornton- Southern Arkansas
Cedrick Thornton is a guy I’ve been interested in for quite a while. He dominated at a lower level in 2009, but struggled through injury in 2010. He is an explosive and dominant athlete that I believe could become a monster sub rushing DL, who we could groom to take over from Mike Wright, or push for a spot against Myron Pryor. Great value and potential for a 6th round pick. Huge upside as an interior pass rusher.

7 (229) - RB- Brandon Saine- Ohio State
With no CBA in place and teams unable to sign UDFA’s, the Pats grab 3 late 7th rounders to get a jump start on these players. Brandon Saine is a very interesting RB that I think is being overlooked by many in this draft. He has a good size and speed combo, and offers great versatility as a pass catcher. He’s not a traditional between the tackles RB, but I see him as a poor man’s Demarco Murray, a guy that can do it all. He can either offer great versatility as a RB and receiver, or could just be a developmental guy on the practice squad.

7 (230) - RB- Graig Cooper- Miami
Graig Cooper is another guy that was once highly rated before injury struck. 18 months ago he was a 1st round pick that was rated very similarly to Mark Ingram. However, injury has really derailed his career so far and dropped him into the 7th/UDFA range. I would take a chance on him, and IR him for a year to try and get him back the potential feature back in the NFL. If he can get healthy he will be the steal of the NFL draft.

7 (231) - DT- Adrian Taylor- Oklahoma
Like Romeus, Williams and Cooper before him, Adrian Taylor is yet another guy that was once considered a potential 1st round draft pick before injury kicked in. He has had some back luck with some horror injuries over the past two years, but he has the talent to take a chance on at this stage of the draft. Like the others he will need to IR for a year to try to get healthy, but if he can he is a really interesting guy. He lacks the ideal height and length to be a base DE in the Pats system, although he does have a great anchor and plays with very good technique for this system. I think the best way to use him would be as a developmental NT, because he has a great natural anchor and good technique. He’s 6’3” and currently 311lbs, but he has the frame to add more weight. If he can get healthy and bulk up he could be a very intriguing player to watch in the future.


Final Thoughts

Yes I have added 16 draft picks to the Pats this year, and yes that is a lot considering the number of roster sports available. But with the uncertainty around the CBA and the signing of UDFA’s, I have picked up some extra 7th round picks to get a head start on UDFA’s. I have also drafted 4 guys that will likely be IR'd for the 2011 season, and who essentially become 2012 draft picks. With the uncertainty around the CBA I wouldn’t look to move any high picks forward into 2012 because of the potential risks involved, and because we have 2 assets which I would try to trade off for picks once the CBA is done. I still don’t think that Logan Mankins will be a Patriot long term, so I think the best option would be to trade him once the CBA gets done and move on. His trade value has often been discussed, but once the draft is completed we should have a much better idea of what we could get for him. With the way this draft plays out I think the best option would be to trade Mankins to Chicago, ideally for their 2012 1st. The other guy I think we need to cut ties with is Brandon Meriweather. If we can resign Jared Page I think we have enough depth and talent to be fine at FS without him. While he is talented, I think his style of play is detrimental to the team, and I don’t see him changing it now. After two Pro Bowls he should have decent trade value, and I think trading him to a team like Jacksonville for their 2012 2nd would be a fair deal.

Yet another spectacular work of Art, Brother Wilfork!! :rocker:

I particularly admire your Cutting Edge integration of no less than 16 PICKS!!

With only about 32 players locked and loaded on our team....why the hell NOT??

I've got 23 PICKS, myself, but of course my cheese slid off the cracker a LONG time ago.

 

[Wilfork#75]

On a philosphofical basis I am polar opposite your strategy of getting so many (16) picks. You see this as a deep draft, I don't. You fear a long term lock out that essentially negates the availability of such a deep and rich FA class, I don't.

I don't see this as a particularly strong class, in fact its quite weak. My theory is that the Pats add around 20 rookies each year, whether it be as draft picks or UDFA's. Without being able to sign UDFA's, and complete uncertainty as to when we can sign those players, why not add some extra late round picks to compensate, rather than trying to sign those guys once free agency starts and things get crazy. From this draft I only think 7 or 8 guys would likely make the roster, with 4 going on IR, and the rest challenging for spots on the roster and practice squad. I don't think this is any different to most years, but this year we are bringing guys in as 6th and 7th rounders instead of UDFA's.

I appreciate the effort youv'e put into this mock but I disagree about how things pan out at the top of the draft. For one, I don't see Julio Jones overtaking AJ Green as the top WR. This flip flop of receivers will effect the rest of the draft. For another, I don't see the Cards allowing Ten to leap up into their draft slot when QB is just as pressing a need for them. If Gabbert is still there at #5 they will definitely draft him. I think it far more likely that there will be a bidding war for slot #2 where one QB needy team moves up for Gabbert's services. Fairley has also been connected to Tennessee, so I don't see him making it past #8 if he falls to the Titans.

For most teams AJ Green is the clear #1 WR in this draft. However, the strong rumor is that Cinci is one of the few teams that likes Julio Jones better than Green for their system. Any other team and I think Green would go first, but it only takes 1 team to like a player, and the rumor is Cinci likes Jones.

In terms of Arizona taking Gabbert, everything I'm hearing, especially from the Arizona beat writers, is that if Gabbert is available at 5, the Cards will pass on him in favor of a defensive playmaker. They added two rookie QB's last year who they would like to develop, and they would prefer to add a veteran QB like Bulger or McNabb. In this scenerio Tennessee, who is desperate for a QB, moves up to get Gabbert, while Arizona moves down a few spots where they are still guaranteed to get one of Robert Quinn, Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara.

Next I see Jake Locker being taken at either #10 or #12. Both Washington and Minnesota are QB needy teams. Is Locker the right guy? Who knows. I don't think he is, but those are two teams that need to make a splash and one of them will pull the trigger on a QB, whether it be Jake or another guy (perhaps Mallet or even Ponder but Jake's name is the one mentioned most often). Again this affects the draft drastically.

If Minnesota doesn't think Washinton is going to take Jake Locker, why wouldn't they move down a few spots to pick up an additional 2nd round pick, while still getting Locker at 18. I don't think any of the teams between 12 and 18 would be targeting him, and I don't see any team paying the price to move up that high to get him. He could easily go 10 or 12, but if Minnesota thinks he will still be there at 18, why not move back and grab him.