Pats picked as one of 8 teams with no shot at a SB this year

[captain stone]

We’re opening the season, much like last year, with legitimate questions about RT. And throwing Calvin Anderson at the spot doesn’t pass the smell test. It reminds me of bringing back the broken down Marcus Cannon last year.

Not sure how much less broken down Riley Reiff is.

Sidy Sow, make us all proud, you Ypsilanti Stud Muffin!

Siddy the Sow's not the answer at RT either, but Vederian Lowe might eventually be.

 

[Kasmir]

You're really taking for granted how RARE this is.  Which dismantles your point.

You can talk all you want about stats (which ignores Brady's lack of receiving talent), and misconstrue our points about Brady's importance (we know it's a team game), but at the end of the day, a QB that can lead multiple game winning drives across the regular season and postseason - with a less than stellar offensive supporting cast - is a lot less and common and a lot more special and once-in-a-lifetime than you are making it out to be.

Bogus stat: Brady is 27th all time in GWD/game, right after Kyler Murray and before Andy Dalton.

 

[VrabelJr]

Bogus stat: Brady is 27th all time in GWD/game, right after Kyler Murray and before Andy Dalton.

"Game winning drives per game" jesus ****ing christ they really don't teach statistics in school.

 

[Kasmir]

"Game winning drives per game" jesus ****ing christ they really don't teach statistics in school.

Numerator is career GWD; denominator is total career games played. Result is fraction of career games ending with a GWD.

Is thar clear enough for you?

 

[VrabelJr]

Numerator is career GWD; denominator is total career games played. Result is fraction of career games ending with a GWD.

Is thar clear enough for you?

I'm going to leave the homework with you to figure out why that is a ridiculous stat.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

Numerator is career GWD; denominator is total career games played. Result is fraction of career games ending with a GWD.

Is thar clear enough for you?

.... are you being serious? I shouldn't have to even explain this

 

[Guts]

Numerator is career GWD; denominator is total career games played. Result is fraction of career games ending with a GWD.

Is thar clear enough for you?

Lol I don't get the point of this?

 

[Kasmir]

I'm going to leave the homework with you to figure out why that is a ridiculous stat.

You are missing my whole point, which is to show that GWD is by itself a ridiculous stat.

Brady is the all time leader in GWD. But that's primarily because of his longevity. The calc I did normalizes GWDs over games played to derive the percentage of games played that were ended by a GWD. By that normalized stat Brady is 21st all time and Montana is 60th, so yes it doesn't work.

I wasn't p*ssing on Brady or Montana.

Count of GWD is what's ridiculous, as it is too heavily affected by longevity. Fixing the stat by normalizing it shows that it is ridiculous. I did that normalization precisely to show that even game-normalized GWD's has weak correlation with excellence.

I of course am not proposing GWD/game as a useful stat itself.

To get what people think GWD is useful for you would have to normalize by using opportunities as the denominator, not games. QB's on very strong teams (or very weak teams) get fewer opportunities to come from behind and win than QB's on mediocre teams.

My expectation is that Brady (and Montana) would score very high on a properly normalized career GWD/opportunity measure.

But that remains to be demonstrated so we don't actually have a measure of which QB's were best at winning close games.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I saw some grim stuff from a guy on YouTube I listen to regularly saying the Pats are a 5-6 win squad this year.

They way he said “Bill as a GM…he ****ing sucks!” Anyone else notice half of his draft picks from 2022 are already gone?

He also asks how anybody can look at this roster and say “Bill gives a ****”. He should visit this board and he’ll find most posters say how “improved” the roster is. Straight up delusion.

 

[Ian]

Siddy the Sow's not the answer at RT either, but Vederian Lowe might eventually be.

Hard to say that after just a few preseason games. Looking back at some of his snaps, he wasn't terrible. Had some bad moments, sure, but they were fewer than it initially looked. Obviously, we need one of these two to emerge, but I wouldn't rule him out just yet.

 

[XLIX]

"Game winning drives per game" jesus ****ing christ they really don't teach statistics in school.

+1 +1 +1

Let's set aside that fact that Tom Brady has the most game winning drives in NFL history. As such, "game winning drives per game" is a completely moronic statistic for a wide variety of reasons. It only takes into account 4th quarter comebacks (or breaking a tie score with a late drive). Those are "game winning drives".

So, for example, when then Patriots beat the Bills 31-0 to close out the 2003 regular season on the strength of 4 Tom Brady TD passes in the 1st half, officially there was no "game winning drive". How idiotic is that? Sure as **** seems to me that at least one of those drives won the game for the Patriots that day. But the stat punishes you if you control the game from start to finish.

 

[Wozzy]

You wrote:

"They’re a young team, there will be some setbacks along the way ... The young players years 1-2-3 need to level up and contribute."

You may not have used the word "rebuilding" but that is exactly what you were describing.

So I never mentioned rebuilding at all, thank you for confirming. What I described was a team that is rebuilt.

 

[Wozzy]

Siddy the Sow's not the answer at RT either, but Vederian Lowe might eventually be.

You told us Onwenu wasn’t a good draft pick back when, you tell us all our players suck… you ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?

 

[Wozzy]

We’re opening the season, much like last year, with legitimate questions about RT. And throwing Calvin Anderson at the spot doesn’t pass the smell test. It reminds me of bringing back the broken down Marcus Cannon last year.

Anderson will be 27 and healthy, I don’t see the comparison?

Not sure how much less broken down Riley Reiff is.

Sidy Sow, make us all proud, you Ypsilanti Stud Muffin!

Anderson, Sow and Wheatley… they’re in much better shape now than with a broken down Isaiah Wynn and ancient Cannon. They have three young athletic prospects to throw at the position.

There will always be questions with every team entering a new season.

 

[Ivan]

Hmmmmmnnnn. I remember this happening a long time ago.

 

[XLIX]

So I never mentioned rebuilding at all, thank you for confirming. What I described was a team that is rebuilt.

LOL!! Wozzy definition of a “team that is rebuilt” (these are his words folks, I can’t make this shut up):

“They’re a young team, there will be some setbacks along the way … The young players years 1-2-3 need to level up and contribute.”

 

[Wozzy]

LOL!! Wozzy definition of a “team that is rebuilt” (these are his words folks, I can’t make this shut up):

“They’re a young team, there will be some setbacks along the way … The young players years 1-2-3 need to level up and contribute.”

Yeah… we’re past rebuilding. Now they have to perform, no excuses.

 

[Kasmir]

+1 +1 +1

Let's set aside that fact that Tom Brady has the most game winning drives in NFL history. As such, "game winning drives per game" is a completely moronic statistic for a wide variety of reasons. It only takes into account 4th quarter comebacks (or breaking a tie score with a late drive). Those are "game winning drives".

So, for example, when then Patriots beat the Bills 31-0 to close out the 2003 regular season on the strength of 4 Tom Brady TD passes in the 1st half, officially there was no "game winning drive". How idiotic is that? Sure as **** seems to me that at least one of those drives won the game for the Patriots that day. But the stat punishes you if you control the game from start to finish.

My whole point was that GWD is a bogus stat because it's just based on longevity. Normalizing (GWD/game) shows it correlates with nothing interesting. I of course agree with your last paragraph completely.