Metaphors
In the Starting Line-Up
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Looking at 10 years of draft history by Belichick for the Pats, I came up with the following breakdown (totally subjective, not trying to argue precision):
74 picks (89 total - 15 too soon to evaluate)
16 home runs
40 whiffs
18 somewhere in the middle
So about a 46% "hit" rate. To do a proper post-mortem, wanted to isolate on the whiffs in the first 5 rounds (6th and 7th involve comp picks, flyers and other noise that is hard factor in). There were 20 and I put them into categories to see if any patterns emerge:
Injuries - 4
Akbar, Brock Williams, Klemm, Guss Scott
Tossing out this group since they didn't have much of a chance to develop.
Fit - 2
Klecko, Kareem Brown
There are both talented but didn't have a skill set that fit the Pats scheme. Since Klecko was a "legacy" and Brown was a 2007 pick (Belichick likely tried to trade the pick and couldn't find a taker), I'll consider these aberrations.
Talent - 4
Clint Oldenburg, Cedric Cobbs, Dexter Reid, Jeff Marriott
Just not very good football players and Belichick should have known better. I have no explanation for these besides bad information from scouts or Belichick was just sniffing glue in the war room. When "group think" tells you that a player is bad, sometimes you should just look elsewhere.
Mental - 6
O'Connell, Kenyatta Jones, Marquise Hill, Chad Jackson, Claridge, PK Sam
Now we get the category where you can't give Belichick a pass. All players with talent, fit needs and seemed like good fits. They just didn't have the smarts or desire to succeed in the NFL. Belichick has to be able to sniff these guys out in interviews. Thought CJack might have the Come-to-Jesus moment, but then he fell off the wagon with O'Connell. This category scares me the most but the 2009 class seems OK so far.
Tight End - 4
Dave Thomas, Stachelski, Jabari Holloway, Garrett Mills
These guys really belong in other categories but had to give them their own spotlight. Given the needs at TE this year, count me as reasonably worried. I like the 2010 TE class so I'm hopeful that this string of suckitude will soon be over.
So if Belichick does his homework on the mental makeup of these picks and takes a deep breath/counts to 10 before submitting a TE pick, methinks the 2010 class should be just fine.
74 picks (89 total - 15 too soon to evaluate)
16 home runs
40 whiffs
18 somewhere in the middle
So about a 46% "hit" rate. To do a proper post-mortem, wanted to isolate on the whiffs in the first 5 rounds (6th and 7th involve comp picks, flyers and other noise that is hard factor in). There were 20 and I put them into categories to see if any patterns emerge:
Injuries - 4
Akbar, Brock Williams, Klemm, Guss Scott
Tossing out this group since they didn't have much of a chance to develop.
Fit - 2
Klecko, Kareem Brown
There are both talented but didn't have a skill set that fit the Pats scheme. Since Klecko was a "legacy" and Brown was a 2007 pick (Belichick likely tried to trade the pick and couldn't find a taker), I'll consider these aberrations.
Talent - 4
Clint Oldenburg, Cedric Cobbs, Dexter Reid, Jeff Marriott
Just not very good football players and Belichick should have known better. I have no explanation for these besides bad information from scouts or Belichick was just sniffing glue in the war room. When "group think" tells you that a player is bad, sometimes you should just look elsewhere.
Mental - 6
O'Connell, Kenyatta Jones, Marquise Hill, Chad Jackson, Claridge, PK Sam
Now we get the category where you can't give Belichick a pass. All players with talent, fit needs and seemed like good fits. They just didn't have the smarts or desire to succeed in the NFL. Belichick has to be able to sniff these guys out in interviews. Thought CJack might have the Come-to-Jesus moment, but then he fell off the wagon with O'Connell. This category scares me the most but the 2009 class seems OK so far.
Tight End - 4
Dave Thomas, Stachelski, Jabari Holloway, Garrett Mills
These guys really belong in other categories but had to give them their own spotlight. Given the needs at TE this year, count me as reasonably worried. I like the 2010 TE class so I'm hopeful that this string of suckitude will soon be over.
So if Belichick does his homework on the mental makeup of these picks and takes a deep breath/counts to 10 before submitting a TE pick, methinks the 2010 class should be just fine.
