Pats' Defense: Below Average...But Consistent?

[ivanvamp]

Points and Yards Allowed in each game:

1. at Mia: 24 pts, 488 yds
2. vs SD: 21 pts, 470 yds
3. at Buf: 34 pts, 448 yds
4. at Oak: 19 pts, 504 yds
5. vs NYJ: 21 pts, 255 yds
6. vs Dal: 16 pts, 377 yds
7. at Pit: 25 pts, 427 yds
8. vs NYG: 24 pts, 361 yds
9. at NYJ: 16 pts, 378 yds
10. vs KC: 3 pts, 334 yds
11. at Phi: 20 pts, 466 yds
12. vs Ind: 24 pts, 437 yds
13. at Was: 27 pts, 463 yds
14. at Den: 23 pts, 393 yds

So typically you throw out the high and low outlier from any data set and here's what you end up with, from low to high, in each category:

Pts: 16, 16, 19, 20, 21, 21, 23, 24, 24, 24, 25, 27
Yds: 334, 361, 377, 378, 393, 427, 437, 448, 463, 466, 470, 488

In terms of points, that's 12 games all within an 11-point spread. The average of those 12 data points is 21.7. The low was 5.7 away; the high was 5.3 away.

In terms of yards, that's 12 games all within a 154-yard spread. The average of those 12 data points is 420.1. The low was 86.1 away; the high was 67.9 away.

And these stats are consistent no matter the opponent. They've kept opponents within this 16-27 range if they are good offenses (like Dallas) and if they are bad offenses (like Denver). Home (like San Diego) and away (like Pittsburgh).

So it seems that we can count on this defense to yield between 16-27 points a game, no matter the opponent, and give up roughly 350-450 yards in the process.

I haven't done this with any other team, but I'm willing to bet that there aren't many teams that, once you throw out the high and the low, show this low of a spread, at least in terms of points allowed.

 

[Sciz]

Another sign of consistency: How many teams' defenses have yet to allow more than 27 points in a game? I just checked 3 teams and found that the 49ers have not, the Steelers did week 1 to the Ravens, and the Packers have 3 times.

Buffalo's 34 includes a pick-6, so 27 points allowed by the defense. Checking for D/ST scores is what makes looking through these time consuming.