Patriots vs Chargers Expert picks

[jmt57]

NFL Week 7 picks, including Eagles-Titans and Vikings-Packers - Peter King - SI.com

Pats 31, Chargers 29
Tom Brady wins a shootout. Tough call, because the Chargers need this game badly (oh really?), Philip Rivers is on fire, and the Patriots' young secondary is amazingly generous, allowing foes to complete 71 percent of their throws. I'd pick the Chargers if half their offense wasn't on the sidelines at practice Wednesday -- and particularly if I could count on Antonio Gates being the real Gates with his toe injury.

NFL Football Picks - Sporting News
Pats 24, Chargers 23 - Vinnie Iyer
Pats 24, Chargers 23 - Dennis Dillon
Chargers 27, Pats 24 - Steve Greenburg
Pats 27, Chargers 21 - Clifton Brown
Chargers 28, Pats 27 - Todd Wright
Pats 28, Chargers 18 - Real Scouts
Pats 35, Chargers 16 - Russ Lande

Week 7 picks: Good rivalry games and more - NFL - Sporting News - Vinnie Iyer

Upset of the Week - Pats over Chargers (-3)
The Patriots' defense will keep Philip Rivers in check enough to allow Tom Brady and the special teams to make the difference.
Patriots 24, Chargers 23

Yahoo! Sports - NFL - Expert Picks Week 7
Les Carpenter, Jason Cole and Michael Silver all pick the Patriots
80% of Yahoo users go with the Pats



Weekly NFL picks from USA TODAY's analysts - USATODAY.com
6-2 in favor of the Pats
Jarrett Bell and Jon Saraceno pick the Chargers
Jim Corbett, Nate Davis, Sean Leahy, Gary Mihoces, Pete O'Brien and Tom Pedula go with the Pats

Sheridan's line: Chargers by 3

Sagarin difference: Patriots by 5.04

Game plan: New England's offense didn't miss a beat minus WR Randy Moss last weekend, with QB Tom Brady spreading the field to his possession receivers even with deep threat Brandon Tate a non-factor. San Diego's defense has been inconsistent in run defense, pass rush and coverage. The Patriots will move the ball. The question is, can Chargers QB Philip Rivers match Brady score for score? Rivers' arsenal could be significantly limited if WR Malcom Floyd (hamstring) and TE Antonio Gates (toe) can't go. Considering how pass protection broke down last week, the Chargers would be wise to use RB Ryan Mathews early.

Need to know: The Patriots are averaging an NFL-high 30.8 points per game. ... Rivers has thrown a touchdown pass in an NFL-high 19 consecutive games.

NFL Picks Week 7: Brett Favre Makes Another Trip to Lambeau -- NFL FanHouse

Patriots 24, Chargers 20
Smarter team wins. And the Patriots are the smarter team, as they were in 2007, when they had a very fluky victory in San Diego in a playoff game.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-england-patriots/09000d5d81b835fb/Playbook-Patriots-vs-Chargers
From the NFL Playbook on NFLN, Brian Baldinger goes with the Chargers while Brian Billick and Sterling Sharpe take the Pats.

 

[jmt57]

A few more:


Boston Globe: Globe staff's pro picks: Week 7 - Boston.com
As a 2½ point underdog, Christopher Gasper, Shalise Manza Young and Jim McBride go with the Pats; Monique Waler takes San Diego.
Eric Wilbur: Patriots 31, Chargers 24. Aaron Hernandez makes up for last week's rookie mistakes by shredding the Chargers' defense.
Eric Wilbur's Boston Sports Blog


Providence Journal: Patriots-Chargers pregame analysis: Slight edge to Pats | The Providence Journal
Robert Lee gives his pre-game analysis, and has the Pats winning 27-24


Greg Cote of the Miami Herald: Greg Cote's Week 7 NFL selections - MiamiHerald.com

Line: SD by 3 Cote's pick: SD 34-30
One of the hardest things to do in betting is to say ``no thanks'' when you hear, ``You get Tom Brady. Plus 3 points.'' Like the Cowboys, but maybe more so, San Diego is simply too goodto keep being this bad. Bolts, then. But anxiously.

Dallas Morning News against a 2½ point spread for San Diego:
DMN staff picks (10/22) | Dallas Morning News
Pats: Todd Archer, Gerry Fraley, Rick Gosselin, Dan Larson, Craig Miller, David Moore, Kevin Sherrington
Chargers: Tim Cowlishaw, Jean-Jacques Taylor
Straight Up: Only Fraley and Sherrington go with the Pats


NFL Staff Picks - New York Daily News
Against a spread of Chargers by 3:
Pats: Jim Rich, Bill Gallo, Ralph Vacchiano, Hank Gola, Kevin Armstrong, Manish Mehta
Chargers: Gary Myers, Mighty Quinn

Week 7 NFL Bettor's Guide: Expect the KC Chiefs to put together a masterpiece vs. Jaguars | NY Daily News

PATS at CHARGERS
4:15 p.m., Ch. 2, Chargers by 3, 47
BRENNAN'S BEAUTIES: If there is a more infuriating team in the league than the Chargers, I haven't seen it yet. Their only two wins have come at home vs. Arizona and Jacksonville while their four road losses include defeats in Oakland and St. Louis. This week the Chargers are home, so you're thinking a San Diego win, right? Who knows? There is the strong possibility Philip Rivers - the NFL's passing leader with 2,008 yards - will be without both Malcom Floyd (hamstring) and Antonio Gates (ankle). So it makes no sense to take the Bolts against Tom Brady, which is why they are the pick. The Bolts have not made sense all year, why start now?
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the over.

 

[PatsFan24]

I can really see this game going either way......screw it i will pick the patriots.

 

[Nikolai]

I can really see this game going either way......screw it i will pick the patriots.

I called it a loss during preseason, but I agree right now. Could go either way, so I'll take the homer route.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Hodge hates us.

 

[Lansdowne]

Marshall Faulk picked the Pats. Had to do a double take.

He's actually been speaking more favorably of the Pats lately. What's going on???

 

[jmt57]

Marshall Faulk picked the Pats. Had to do a double take.

He's actually been speaking more favorably of the Pats lately. What's going on???

Yeah. it seems as if he has been complimentary to the Pats more times in the last couple of months than he had been in whatever number of years it has been since he was hired as an analyst. Sounds like he has finally been able to let go of his frustrations from the ending of the 2001 season.

Who did the other NFLN guys pick in this game?

 

[SVN]

surprised by the # of people picking the pats. just like when the pats were in a tough situation and the analysts would pick any good team which was coming in to foxboro e.g vs the ravens last week

 

[SVN]

Yeah. it seems as if he has been complimentary to the Pats more times in the last couple of months than he had been in whatever number of years it has been since he was hired as an analyst. Sounds like he has finally been able to let go of his frustrations from the ending of the 2001 season.

Who did the other NFLN guys pick in this game?

he is probably doing the reverse jinx thing and if the pats lose he will happily say "see i told you..brady is not good without his defense..he isnt manning,etc etc"

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

ESPN Sunday Countdown

Tom Jackson: Patriots ("No way they lose this game")
Cris - Patriots ("Wouldn't want to be the Chargers")
Key - Patriots ("Chargers too beat up")
Ditka - Patriots ("The AFC Championship goes through New England")
Boomer - Chargers ("My Super Bowl pick")

 

[Lansdowne]

Yeah. it seems as if he has been complimentary to the Pats more times in the last couple of months than he had been in whatever number of years it has been since he was hired as an analyst. Sounds like he has finally been able to let go of his frustrations from the ending of the 2001 season.

Who did the other NFLN guys pick in this game?

Everyone picked the Pats except Michael Irvin.

 

[jmt57]

Week 7: NFL Predictions (Record: 8-4) - WSJ.com

Chargers 27, Patriots 14

As was pointed out in Friday's Journal, the Chargers are owners of the top-ranked offense and top-ranked defense in the NFL. This, who knows how, has resulted in a meager two wins. The Bolts are picking up nine yards per pass attempt on first down, yet they only throw on 48% of first downs. This might be the problem and if Norv Turner can see it, the Chargers will have no problem collecting their third win against Bill Belichick's minions.

Interesting rationale there; personally I'm thinking the Chargers would be better off running the ball more today rather than passing it more than they have been, with all their injuries to receivers.



Insiders' Picks - Showtime Sports - Inside The NFL

Cris Collinsworth takes the Chargers, Warren Sapp goes with the Pats; Phil Simms abstains.



Week 7 NFL tip sheet | National Football Post

Matt Bowen of NFP takes the Pats over San Diego.

Lose at home to Brady and the Pats, and Norv Turner’s club is looking at a 2-5 start. If I am the Patriots, I target that punt protection in San Diego. Use some twist stunts and try to confuse the count system for the Chargers to get a free runner at the punter. Make San Diego adjust to the rush schemes until they show they can protect. Chance to get a big play early.

ProFootballWeekly.com - Patriots-Chargers prediction | Kevin Fishbain

Something clicked at the beginning of the fourth quarter last Sunday on offense and defense for the Patriots. QB Tom Brady was more accurate, methodically moving the team downfield on two scoring drives. The defense made big stops and held the Ravens scoreless for almost the entire fourth quarter and overtime. They will need to take that momentum and use it as fuel for a road victory today in San Diego.

The Chargers have been a statistical anomaly. The league leaders in total offense and defense, the Chargers are just 2-4 thanks to special-teams breakdowns and failures to convert red-zone opportunities. QB Philip Rivers will likely be missing two WRs (Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee), and his top target, TE Antonio Gates, is not 100 percent.

Since giving up 30 points to the Bills, the Patriots' defense has played better, but it is still a bend-not-break style with such a young secondary, and that will be tested today by Rivers, who likes to sling it all over the field. The Patriots play well on the road and Bill Belichick seems to have his mojo back. This will be close, but I think the Patriots are well rounded and motivated enough to take this one from a frustrated Chargers team.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Chargers 27

Doc Sports - NFL Picks: Patriots vs. Chargers | Robert Ferringo

Naturally, the public is all over the Patriots this week. Whether it’s the injuries or San Diego’s stunningly suspect record this year, there apparently aren’t a lot of believers in Norv Turner’s bunch. More than 80 percent of the early action has come in on the road underdog as bettors are gladly taking Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the healthier team along with a spare field goal.

This game is definitely a “stay away” for me. I haven’t had a great read on the Patriots over the last several years in matchups like this and it’s way too easy to simply take the points and rely on Brady and Belichick to stick it to the Bolts one more time. In fact, if I had to make a play I would bet with the books on this one and take the Chargers. They are simply the more desperate team and it is never a good sign to see over 80 percent of the public on an underdog in any sport.

Further, I think that I would fade the public by going with the ‘under’ in this one. San Diego’s offensive issues are just too wide reaching to ignore. Their depleted receiving corps would have lit up the Patriots if they were healthy. But they are not so you can’t expect the same level of output. Also, without Randy Moss the Patriots offense is a bit less explosive. I can see them committing to the run even more – although at any key moment the ball will be squarely in Brady’s hands – and the short-passing game will be even more important in their game plan. It is tough to “bet against” two masters like Philip Rivers and Brady. However, the San Diego defense is one of the more underrated groups in the league and I predict another strong performance. I think that San Diego manages to stay out of its own way for 60 minutes and come away with a 23-19 win.

WalterFootball.com: NFL Picks Against the Spread - Week 7, 2010

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Chris Berman hit the nail on the head when he said that the Chargers have no playmakers on defense. In the past two weeks, San Diego has failed to prevent Sam Bradford and Jason Campbell from driving down the field against them.

If a rookie quarterback and a skinny version of JaMarcus Russell can accomplish that, Tom Brady shouldn't have a problem doing so. He struggled in the first half against the Ravens - as most signal-callers would - but really picked it up in the second half once he began relying on Deion Branch.

The Brady-to-Branch should continue to work, as the Chargers have a lot of players they'll need to focus on, including Branch, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead.

RECAP: This is a must-win game for the Chargers. With the Chiefs playing the craptastic Jaguars, a loss could put San Diego two-and-a-half games behind Kansas City, with the tie-breaker going to the Chiefs.

However, as a wise man once said, "a team that needs to win probably isn't that good to begin with." That's certainly the case here with Floyd out and Gates not 100 percent.

I mentioned this trend earlier - home favorites coming off back-to-back road losses are just 28-48 against the spread since 2002. That makes the Patriots an appealing play, as does getting points with Brady.

Still, the fact that this is so do-or-die for the Chargers will keep me from betting this game too heavily.


Week 7 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Chargers 21
Patriots +2.5 (0.5 Units)
Under 49 (0 Units)

NFL news and notes, Week 7 - St. Petersburg Times

Upset alert

Patriots over Chargers. I'm not even sure why the Chargers are favorites, but they are, so I'll take the Pats.

Dallas due to get it all right, finally - Richard Witt - New York Post

Patriots (+2½) over CHARGERS: Much like Monday nighter, this marquee matchup features sharp visitor of established class at a struggling pub lic team. If putrid Bolts special teams coverage doesn't hand Bill Beli chick a gift touchdown, this should be competi tive, given clear- cut Chargers need. But even with possible return of tight end Antonio Gates, respect Patriots' poise.

 

[jmt57]

Everyone picked the Pats except Michael Irvin.

Irvin seems to have replaced Faulk as the resident Pats hater on NFLN.

 

[Lansdowne]

Irvin seems to have replaced Faulk as the resident Pats hater on NFLN.

That's okay, he's very likely the least intelligent of the group. If the player doesn't play for the Cowboys or isn't from "THE U" then he doesn't have anything nice to say about them.