Patriots Daily News Thread Patriots Thursday 10/12/23

[Wozzy]

It's really hard to envision this team turning around. Who do they have that can put the team on their back?

On the other hand, the crap about Mac not being able to bring the team back - does the world forget all the crap Boutte got for not getting his foot down wk. 1? That drive had the feel of being able to finish. They already came back from down 2 TD's.
(Remember, BB's decision not to kick the FG in easy range was the reason a FG right there wouldn't have won it)
So, it's not all on Mac why they didn't win week 1 or 2.

Mac has completely fallen apart since weeks one and two.

Back then the line was a real issue, but they got healthy in week three and haven't had those issues since then.

Change the QB, if they get improved QB play, that can turn the offense around.

 

[Wozzy]

Well... that explains that. Sigh.

According to a league source, part of that business includes a front office that evaluates players almost entirely without the assistance of analytics. GPS tracking data, such as publicly available information from Next Gen Stats, would have tipped them off that a receiver like Parker generates the least separation in the league. Poor separation currently plagues all of the team's receivers, except sixth-round rookie Demario Douglas, who is responsible for Jones' longest gain of the season.

Prior to Sunday's loss to the Saints, Patriots receivers averaged the least separation in the league, per Next Gen Stats. No surprise: the Patriots rank dead last in EPA and passer rating against man-to-man coverage.

"Nobody can get open, so everything has to be schemed," a team source said. "That's a hard way to live."

Film shows receivers running open, Mac simply hasn't found them or has thrown late, allowing defenders to catch up and defend them.

 

[PatsFan2]

It's really hard to envision this team turning around. Who do they have that can put the team on their back?

On the other hand, the crap about Mac not being able to bring the team back - does the world forget all the crap Boutte got for not getting his foot down wk. 1? That drive had the feel of being able to finish. They already came back from down 2 TD's.
(Remember, BB's decision not to kick the FG in easy range was the reason a FG right there wouldn't have won it)
So, it's not all on Mac why they didn't win week 1 or 2.

Now Imagine if K Boutte was say D-Hop on those plays we possibly win that game.

 

[jdlboot14]

Now Imagine if K Boutte was say D-Hop on those plays we possibly win that game.

I know. Or imagine if Meyers was Boutte... or Meyers was JSS. Or the old WWII general would let the most talented kid (Pop) actually play

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[PatsFan2]

IF Boney T can have a good game he would never leave the Starting line-up on this Team. They are so many Rookies having decent years already we need a break seize the moment Tyquan.

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Film shows receivers running open, Mac simply hasn't found them or has thrown late, allowing defenders to catch up and defend them.

N’Keal Harry is open constantly! Tom is too busy pouting!!

 

[Sciz]

Well... that explains that. Sigh.

According to a league source, part of that business includes a front office that evaluates players almost entirely without the assistance of analytics. GPS tracking data, such as publicly available information from Next Gen Stats, would have tipped them off that a receiver like Parker generates the least separation in the league. Poor separation currently plagues all of the team's receivers, except sixth-round rookie Demario Douglas, who is responsible for Jones' longest gain of the season.

Parker is, indeed, tied for second least separation right now. But tied for fourth least (with 3.6 inches of separation more than Parker on average) are Jakobi Meyers, George Pickens, and Tee Higgins, two guys the local media can’t stop talking about as Pats mistakes and one that they see as the solution to that problem. Does separation actually matter or not?

 

[Sicilian]

Parker is, indeed, tied for second least separation right now. But tied for fourth least (with 3.6 inches of separation more than Parker on average) are Jakobi Meyers, George Pickens, and Tee Higgins, two guys the local media can’t stop talking about as Pats mistakes and one that they see as the solution to that problem. Does separation actually matter or not?

Yup, the problem with Parker is he's supposed to be a guy who wins the majority of contested catches, and he simply isn't doing that. Primarily, he's just not getting it done, but also the timing just feels off between him and Mac right now (which is not exclusive to Parker).

The problem with the Patriots offense isn't "separation", it's that they're not getting separation, they're not winning physically, they're not getting good o-line play (run or pass), and the QB isn't making good decisions. It's a multiple, compounding situation. Each deficiency makes the other deficiencies look worse than they would be if they were alone. That's how a team ends up bottom of the league on offense.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Parker is, indeed, tied for second least separation right now. But tied for fourth least (with 3.6 inches of separation more than Parker on average) are Jakobi Meyers, George Pickens, and Tee Higgins, two guys the local media can’t stop talking about as Pats mistakes and one that they see as the solution to that problem. Does separation actually matter or not?

It does... I don't mind the short trend. The problem with Parker is that it's a chronic 4 season problem... 2020, 2021, 2022, Parker was last place... now he's 2nd to last place (after a promising start getting up to 2.5yds separation - woohoo). It's like Revis island for every CB now on Parker, and resources can be allocated for other threats, making it hard for everyone else. No wonder Mac had 316 passing yds Week 1 when Parker was out.

Also, as someone way smarter than I said, separation is not just a WR stat, it's partially a QB stat, so for this year at least, I'll give that it's not all Parker's fault as there are times when he's been open, but the trend for him is DAMNING.

Edit: this is why I think re-signing Parker this past offseason was galatically rhymes with cupid or rum. As a Pats fan, I was really really really hoping to eat crow on this, but the outlook is not good.

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[VrabelJr]

Parker is, indeed, tied for second least separation right now. But tied for fourth least (with 3.6 inches of separation more than Parker on average) are Jakobi Meyers, George Pickens, and Tee Higgins, two guys the local media can’t stop talking about as Pats mistakes and one that they see as the solution to that problem. Does separation actually matter or not?

I don't find average separation to be a useful metric. There's just too much context missing from it. What's the coverage? Bump and run? Lead off? What kind of read did the defense make? Did they decide to let an obvious non-threat run open? Also our pressure rate is north of 40% which means WRs don't have very long to get open.

There's also a point of diminishing returns when it comes to separation. If you can't fight for a ball with 2 yards of separation is 3 yards really going to make a difference? I can't find it right now but someone made a scatter plot of the top WRs and almost all of them were closer to the middle of the pack because they get special treatment from defenses (bumped often or doubled), but run great routes, and have great hands so make the play anyway.

WRs are paid to catch contested balls and run great routes, not just to get separation, but to get their body in a position to win.

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[Patsfan1958]