Patriots new OC - Alex Van Pelt

[KCSVEN]

The reason I take Harrison or Alt over the remaining QB of the three is that for me, Harrison and Alt will still have 1st round trade value in 3 years.. a failed QB will be toast. Therefore we have 3 years to find someone.. if not then we will have a top pick anyway in 4 years plus the trade ammo.

That's an interesting take, though if you are willing to trade them in 3 years for a 1st round pick that means you never got the QB, otherwise you are keeping them. Seems like the time you had them is basically wasted without a QB so why not just shot for the QB
.
1st round Tackles miss all the time, Alt is not considered a generational pick like MHJ, so I would not put his pick as any more likely to succeed than a QB. Evan Neal was rated, on average, higher than Alt and you are not getting a 1st round pick for him these days.
MHJ has to be Tyreek Hill level good, or you won't get a first for him either, though in that case, the odds say it is definitely more likely.

Easiest way to avoid all this is select a QB that doesn't fail! Daniels is pretty certain to be a starting NFL QB, just a question whether he is Justin Fields level at 20-25 or closer to top 10. He has an elite talent in his ability to run, as long as he stays healthy, he will have at least some success because he has an elite ability in 1 area.

 

[The Gr8est]

Since you are apparently incapable of debating it on realistic terms, name Championships built around NKeal Harry.

And while you are at it name the Championships built around Eugene Chung.

Neither Harry or Chung went in the top three picks, or close to it.

It isn’t realistic to call out the QB drafted number one overall, just prior to Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas?

I see people pointing out how teams don’t win SBs with great WRs or tackles, yet they are willing to risk a QB pick because QB, and don’t seem to care about the opportunity cost.

 

[Uptown]

 

[rochrist]

Was that the goal? I think you know the answer.

If you're going by 'every team that doesn't win the Super Bowl underachieved', then sure. If you go by 'did they do just about as well as the personnel they had healthy allowed them to', then no.

 

[signbabybrady]

JFC it just keeps getting worse McAdoo really

 

[Huckleberry1]

Neither Harry or Chung went in the top three picks, or close to it.

It isn’t realistic to call out the QB drafted number one overall, just prior to Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas?

I see people pointing out how teams don’t win SBs with great WRs or tackles, yet they are willing to risk a QB pick because QB, and don’t seem to care about the opportunity cost.

Absolutely no one has sad teams don’t win championships with great OT’s or WR’s , teams with Championships with all sorts of great players at all sorts of different positions. What I said was that you don’t win championships by building around them. You can get the greatest player at pretty much any position, but you aren’t going to win championships with them unless you have a really good QB. And the best way to get the most important position is with a really good draft pick, and I won’t bother to repost the list of playoff QB’s in the AFC and the league who were high picks, because that’s been done repeatedly in these threads. And the idea that they shouldn’t take a QB high because some team once drafted JaMarcus Russell is idiotic.

 

[TomPatriot]

Please God no.

 

[goheels22002]

My overall take on Van Pelt now that some dust has settled: This offense is in a ROUGH state. Before free agency and re-signings, they need a starting QB and two OT, they have no TE's under contract, they have one proven RB and they need a talent infusion in the WR room. On top of that, they need to mend some schisms, sort out the locker room lawyers, and the head coach is a young, defensive guy.

When you break a leg, before you can start rebuilding your strength in it you have to splint it, put it in a cast, and let it heal. I think that's why they went with Van Pelt over a guy like Caley. You need someone with some experience, and it sounds like he's a good locker room guy as well. Heal the offense, get some of those holes filled, stop the bleeding. We couldn't go straight to fresh, innovation, young gun until that foundation is re-established.

Down the line, when you've got your QB and there's more talent on the roster, if the offense has stagnated, that's when you bring in the "next big thing" and shoot for the moon, IMO.

The Patriots have plenty of draft picks and cap space to make major upgrades on offense, especially since the defense is in good shape, The Patriots need a QB and offensive line upgrades to give him time. The running back room is fine, especially if they bring back Zeke. They need one WR who is a legit #1. The returnees are fine especially if JJSS is healthy.


p

 

[festy1986]

If you're going by 'every team that doesn't win the Super Bowl underachieved', then sure. If you go by 'did they do just about as well as the personnel they had healthy allowed them to', then no.

They did better with basically all their backups then they did with their superstar QB.

That team is going no where.

 

[NormZauchin]

It’s two different ways of looking at it. With such a high pick, but a dearth of offensive talent, the Patriots have two paths they can take.

They can swing on a QB high and hope it works. If it does, they’re in a great spot but still have some holes, and hopefully the QB’s development isn’t hindered by them. If the QB doesn’t work out then they’re back to square 1 sucking.

They can trade down, take a left tackle, and use their extra picks from the trade to build up areas that need it - a right tackle, receiver, tight end, probably another running back, maybe even a fullback. They can also use their cap space advantage to add veterans here, and take a QB in the middle rounds, let him sit behind a veteran and develop and then see how he does later behind a better built overall team. The team has a higher “floor” and more likely to finish closer to .500 but high end potential is capped unless that QB is a sleeper hit. However, they can keep taking QBs in future years until they find one that has what it takes, but that does mean potential long term relative mediocrity.

Both sides have some merit. If you asked me what’s more likely, just based on how the team has done business for a long time, I would probably expect them to lean towards the latter. I saw a story today in the Athletic from Jeff Howe about how “if Wolf is the GM, they’ll look to draft a LT at 3.” I don’t think they actually would do this, but it’s sending an early signal out to other teams that the third pick is not going to be used on a QB and is open for trade if some team wants it. I also saw Rapoport say that Van Pelt will have a day in QB selection - that didn’t make sense if they were locked into who was left at the 3rd slot, but if they trade down and are looking to take a guy in the 2nd or with a trade up into the late 1st then they could ask Van Pelt who he likes out of guys like McCarthy, Nix, Penix, etc and target that guy. Food for thought.

I think it might be useful to project where the Patriots will finish next year and what their draft position might be. I think it very likely that they will have one of the top ten positions in the draft and a pick in the top five is not out of the question. As for estimates that next year's quarterback class is weak, we all know how quickly that can change. A guy like Joe Burrow can go from 2894 yards and 16 touchdowns as a junior to 5671 yards and 60 touchdowns as a senior. Presto, he's everyone's first pick in the draft. This year's draft strategy should operate on the assumption that the Pats will have a very high pick next year, unless, of course, Mayo and his staff are miracle workers.

 

[Headcase]

I think it might be useful to project where the Patriots will finish next year and what their draft position might be. I think it very likely that they will have one of the top ten positions in the draft and a pick in the top five is not out of the question. As for estimates that next year's quarterback class is weak, we all know how quickly that can change. A guy like Joe Burrow can go from 2894 yards and 16 touchdowns as a junior to 5671 yards and 60 touchdowns as a senior. Presto, he's everyone's first pick in the draft. This year's draft strategy should operate on the assumption that the Pats will have a very high pick next year, unless, of course, Mayo and his staff are miracle workers.

You don't even have to go as far as Burrows...in May Daniels was ranked as the 9th best QB in this class by PFF.

Someone will play themselves into contention as a first rd QB next CFB season too.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Since you are apparently incapable of debating it on realistic terms, name Championships built around NKeal Harry.

And while you are at it name the Championships built around Eugene Chung.

Let's cut to the chase, name a championship built around any single player. Debating who to draft to create a champion cannot be simplified by a single pick. The fact that 53 players and a dozen coaches need to be able to work together as a unit, granted 3 phases, makes football such a great sport to follow. No one player, TB12, Lawrence Taylor, Archie Manning has won anything by themselves. Sorry, this is getting tedious.

 

[Huckleberry1]

But of course, Belichick traded back when he had 2nd round values in the late first round.

The 6 times he picked in the top, he never traded out of the meat of the 1st round (including last year with Gonzalez). Heck, in deep drafts, he even traded up to the edge of the 1st round grades with Chandler Jones and Donte Hightower.

He went purely by grades, not by the pressure to fill holes and needs on the roster.

I agree with this, and the Jones/Hightower draft was one of my favorite drafts he ever had, but as someone who would watch it for hours every year waiting for the pick it still made me nuts.And I’m adamantly opposed to trading out of the 3rd pick this year. I don’t have the reservations on Daniel’s that others do, and I believe that if they pass on him it will be a long time before they get their QB the future. And if they don’t have a franchise QB then it really doesn’t matter how may other holes they fill, because they will still suck.

 

[Huckleberry1]

One of the biggest reason’s that I am adamantly in the camp of taking the QB at 3 this draft is this- They don’t have to trade up to get a franchise QB. In most Draft’s there are at least 6-8 teams that are in serious need of a QB, and not surprisingly they usually correlate to the head coaching changes that have just taken place. And the number of college QB’s are considered to be “ franchise caliber” QB’s is usually around 2 to maybe 4 in a great year year, but sometimes there’s only 1 that really fits that description. Once again, not surprisingly, the worst team in football is usually picking 1st, and they usually need a QB, and they take that top prospect at QB. Then there is a bidding frenzy to get the remaining top ranked QB’s, and every year teams pay a king’s ransom to move up to get the remaining top prospects at QB, in the hope it will turn them around. Unfortunately for them having to pay that price ends up depleting their draft resources they could have used to address the other major needs in their roster, that could have helped that new HC, and new QB to prosper. However this year fortune favors the Patriots, as not only is the QB class blessed with 3 top QB prospects, and the Patriots guaranteed to get one of them, but this draft is also exceptionally deep at OT, and at WR, their 2 other positions of greatest need. This means that the Patriots, with their highest pick in over 30 years, can get a top QB prospect without having to give up any other draft capital at all, which is rare, and still address their other 2 biggest needs with highly ranked prospects at both positions, That’s as good a position to be in draft wise as there is, and it’s doubtful it will come along again anytime soon, so take the WB at, and the address OT and WR with other top prospects. Hopefully that will turn the worst QB position in football with one that can lead them to Lombardi’s in the future, as that is ultimately the goal when drafting players .

 

[Ollie]

I’m obviously in the draft the QB high and build around them. All I see of the other approach is a bunch of long term failures.

I don't think it's easy simple as that. Drafting a QB high has a 70% failure rate i think, this is obviously influenced by the teams themsleves being bad to be in that position in the first place but drafign a high qb is not a proven route to success. Sure it can happen but it's a gamble. Drafting a non QB such as a WR etc and then bringing in an established QB like Cousins or Mayfield also has it's issues but it's less risky overall.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Let's cut to the chase, name a championship built around any single player. Debating who to draft to create a champion cannot be simplified by a single pick. The fact that 53 players and a dozen coaches need to be able to work together as a unit, granted 3 phases, makes football such a great sport to follow. No one player, TB12, Lawrence Taylor, Archie Manning has won anything by themselves. Sorry, this is getting tedious.

John Elway

Troy Aikman

Ben Roethlisberger

Joe Namath

Patrick Mahomes

Peyton Manning

To name a few.



They drafted and built around those players. And there are a number of others who won numerous conference Championships just not the SB, such as Jim Kelly. The QB is the most important position on the team, and if you find a great one without having to use a high pick to draft them then great, the Patriots didn’t have to use a high pick for Brady, but they built around him for years knowing QB was all set. So anyone who believes Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe are the answer should stay fast in their belief that Marvin Harrison Jr. should be the pick, and ill stick to my belief that this is their best bet for getting one without having to pay 50 million a year for a mediocre QB, or using multiple first rounders to move up and get one.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I don't think it's easy simple as that. Drafting a QB high has a 70% failure rate i think, this is obviously influenced by the teams themsleves being bad to be in that position in the first place but drafign a high qb is not a proven route to success. Sure it can happen but it's a gamble. Drafting a non QB such as a WR etc and then bringing in an established QB like Cousins or Mayfield also has it's issues but it's less risky overall.

The lower you go, the higher the failure rate.

 

[Uptown]

 

[1960Pats]

Maybe if we trade back we should go defense then. I think you have 3QBs, a WR, and 2 tackles off the board already and we're now on the clock at 8.

I'll be so disappointed if we trade back. They need to be trying to figure out how to move up for the 1 of these 3 QBs they really want.

They have so many holes to fill on offense that if the QB they want isn't there at #3 then they should move back and pick up more picks.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

The Patriots have plenty of draft picks and cap space to make major upgrades on offense, especially since the defense is in good shape, The Patriots need a QB and offensive line upgrades to give him time. The running back room is fine, especially if they bring back Zeke. They need one WR who is a legit #1. The returnees are fine especially if JJSS is healthy.


p

Actually they have the cap space but "only" 7 draft picks (1 thru 5 and 2 seventh rounders), the least since 2017. Often with trades, which they may still make they end up w 10 picks.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm