Patriots have time of possession issues

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Interesting article and points out that the Pats offense is 28th in the NFL in time possession and giving up ghastly numbers on 3rd down and 10 on defense,yet are off to an impressive start to the season at 5-1

Amazing that the offense is ranked high in almost every catagory except time of possession

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nfl/columns/story?columnist=lundblad_jeremy&id=5740745

 

[spacecrime]

Interesting article and points out that the Pats offense is 28th in the NFL in time possession and giving up ghastly numbers on 3rd down and 10 on defense,yet are off to an impressive start to the season at 5-1

Amazing that the offense is ranked high in almost every catagory except time of possession

New England Patriots are losing time of possesion battle - ESPN Boston

A passing offense uses as much clock time but less game time than a run often offense because the clock does run for incomplete passes. I think the Colts are habitually low in time of possession also.

 

[jaychamp]

A passing offense uses as much clock time but less game time than a run often offense because the clock does run for incomplete passes. I think the Colts are habitually low in time of possession also.

True but it's not like they've had many long drives regardless. Very inconsistent in that regard. They're still adjusting though and have faced some tough defenses since the trades

 

[Digit]

True but it's not like they've had many long drives regardless. Very inconsistent in that regard. They're still adjusting though and have faced some tough defenses since the trades

A large part of this has to be Special Teams and Defense's fault - all those returns for a touchdowns plus short field position. Especially that Miami game, which I think completely screwed up time of possession by giving the Patriots less possessions than the Dolphins.

 

[Gwedd]

This just points out the difficulties in using any sort of statistics to gauge a team's abilities.

The only thing that really matters is the W to L ratio. Everything else is for the fantasy football junkies.

 

[Aßßynormal]

The stats for the last three games are 'possibly' relavent. Time of posession should improve with Fred Taylor healthy but not by a lot.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The article highlights a couple of things. 1) 3rd down defense 2) A sharp departure from what the team historically has done.

What is lost on this is that the team is 3rd in the league in successful 3rd down conversations which in theory would extend drives.

IMO I would agree that having a shorter field to work with and going to more nickel/dime defenses in the 2nd 1/2 have made the ToP number what it is.

 

[patsfan-1982]

it's not all on the offense BB's bend but don't brake defense pretty much lets the other team's offense stay on the field a long time im not knocking it cause it's working and the defense has been winning game this season, but it is what it is

 

[dhamz]

Certainly the offnese has struggled to consistenly sustain drives the last 2 weeks and the time of possession stats bear that out.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

The offense will take some time to find their identity w/o Moss but I think they're on the way. Against the Chargers I thought we had a perfect 2nd half offensively until the 4 and out, 1 more yard and it would have been a perfect half. Long TD drive, long FG drive, and then running the clock out at the end. The TD drive chewed up about 8 minutes or something like that, those 8,9 minute drives are what I love to see. There was one against Miami too that only resulted in a FG but took 9 minutes off the clock. Our defense needs more of those.

The explosive offenses were fun to watch but I'm excited for a transition to a more efficient variety with less plays downfield. Hope to see a greater committment to running the ball too even if we don't have alot of success with it right away.

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats having a lot of special team TDs have something to do with that. When the Pats blocked the FG in Miami and ran it in for a TD, it gave Miami's offense back to back possessions. When Tate returns a kick off for a TD, it gives means both teams will get more possessions although the offense scored without a possession.

Also, in several games, the Pats were protecting a lead and playing bend don't break defense. That means their strategy was to allow the opposing offenses to have long drives to run down the clock.

 

[BlueThunder]

it's not all on the offense BB's bend but don't brake defense pretty much lets the other team's offense stay on the field a long time im not knocking it cause it's working and the defense has been winning game this season, but it is what it is

I think Pats would rather have the " bend but don't break" defense....:bricks:


I don't think the brakes work sometimes on their defense

 

[jmt57]

If you look at the NFL leaders in time of possession the top two teams, five of the top six, six of the top eight, and seven of the top ten teams all have negative turnover ratios. Only four of those ten teams have a winning record.

One could easily make a case for there being more of a correlation between high time of possession and losing football than the conventional wisdom of time of possession equals winning football. Score on a turnover or special teams and your time of possession will be low. Give up a turnover that leads to a quick score against you and your time of possession will be high.

Time of possession appears to be a very over rated stat, and that's before even considering the differences with how the clock runs on a pass versus a run.

 

[jmt57]

it's not all on the offense BB's bend but don't brake defense pretty much lets the other team's offense stay on the field a long time im not knocking it cause it's working and the defense has been winning game this season, but it is what it is

I think Pats would rather have the " bend but don't break" defense....:bricks:


I don't think the brakes work sometimes on their defense

But remove the Pats and your opinion about the Pats defense for a moment, and go back to the original topic about time of possession. When teams have a comfortable lead late in the game their primary objectives are to (a) don't give up a quick score, and (b) run as much time as possible off the clock. If you're up by 14 or more with ten minutes to go and your opponent scores a touchdown, but it took them seven and a half minutes to do so, that's not all that bad of a result; you still have the lead, you're getting the ball back and now there's only a couple of minutes left to play. Think back to the Super Bowl against Philly, and the Eagles final touchdown drive for an example. Giving up a long drive in that type of situation is completely different than giving up a long touchdown drive in the first half, or to start the second half.

 

[Deus Irae]

If you look at the NFL leaders in time of possession the top two teams, five of the top six, six of the top eight, and seven of the top ten teams all have negative turnover ratios. Only four of those ten teams have a winning record.

One could easily make a case for there being more of a correlation between high time of possession and losing football than the conventional wisdom of time of possession equals winning football. Score on a turnover or special teams and your time of possession will be low. Give up a turnover that leads to a quick score against you and your time of possession will be high.

Time of possession appears to be a very over rated stat, and that's before even considering the differences with how the clock runs on a pass versus a run.

Top 10 in TOP last year:

Patriots
Packers
Steelers
Vikings
Bengals
Cowboys
Jets
Dolphins
Texans
Giants

The Saints were #11

Top 10 in TOP from 2008:

Ravens
Giants
Patriots
Bucs
Texans
Steelers
Packers
Redskins
Jaguars
Eagles

The Vikings were #11


TOP's not exact, but it's a relatively reliable indicator. Over the course of the past two seasons, only 2 teams have finished in the top 10 in TOP and been sub .500.*



*I included the #11 teams just to be sure that going to 10 wasn't cutting off from a precipitous fall.

 

[folamzz]

This just points out the difficulties in using any sort of statistics to gauge a team's abilities.

The only thing that really matters is the W to L ratio. Everything else is for the fantasy football junkies.

I disagree. The W and L record is what is misleading. We are a very overrated 5 and 1 team because our offense is average. If our offense don't improve, there will be a correction to our win and loss record. Remember, we were 5-2 last year before going 5-4 the rest of the way.

 

[mgteich]

Having the worst 3rd and 4th down percentage in the nfl since the 1995 Browns is not a good situation.

 

[mgteich]

Lucky is better than good I suppose.

Having the worst 3rd and 4th down percentaes in the league is not good. Allowing opposing quarterbacks to have over a 100 rating on 3rd down is aweful.

This just points out the difficulties in using any sort of statistics to gauge a team's abilities.

The only thing that really matters is the W to L ratio. Everything else is for the fantasy football junkies.

 

[jmt57]

TOP's not exact, but it's a relatively reliable indicator. Over the course of the past two seasons, only 2 teams have finished in the top 10 in TOP and been sub .500.*

I think what is happening is that we are dealing with too small of a sample size to reach a meaningful conclusion. Pats are leading the league with five 'other', non-offensive touchdowns. That's obviously a positive, but it negatively impacts TOP.

To me one should look at the TOP stat, and then go beyond it and ask why the team ranks where they do. The first factor is those turnovers for touchdowns, which is a good thing. The second factor is that third-down defense, which of course is a negative.

To me the Pats time of possession is not an issue, but their third-down defense is.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Having the worst 3rd and 4th down percentage in the nfl since the 1995 Browns is not a good situation.

Who coached that team?...Oh wait...He was awful!