Player Signing Patriots claim rookie DT Eric Gregory on waivers; sign OT Thayer Munford to PS

[Uptown]

Man, sign Wilkins. We’d have the best DL in the universe. Who cares if he likes sniffing feet…

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

True! I am only trying to say just that. Can not expect 6-7 rounders or Undrafted free agents to be key cogs of the machine.
These late rounders and ps players are very unlikely to shine with a few exceptions (eg Chism)

Who expects a lot out of 6th and 7th rounders? Are you speaking to the proverbial you?

 

[Wozzy]

True! I am only trying to say just that. Can not expect 6-7 rounders or Undrafted free agents to be key cogs of the machine.
These late rounders and ps players are very unlikely to shine with a few exceptions (eg Chism)

Roughly a 25% of the entire NFL is UDFA’s…

So yes, you can expect to find talented players amongst their ranks… and late round picks.

 

[Huckleberry1]

No doubt. But lets talk probabilities. How many players on pats practice squad last year even played a single down?

Practice squad players have a much lower hit rate than draft picks Rounds 1-4

So yes it can happen but its relatively infrequent that these guys become regular contributors

Which is exactly what you said about Efton Chism III. You don’t understand that it’s not about probabilities, it’s about players. In your world Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Troy Brown and many many others never would have gotten a chance to
become what they became, as higher drafted players and free agents always would have been gifted the roster spots due to draft status and paycheck. And in your world I guarantee that Tom Brady never would have been chosen over Drew Bledsoe, because Bledsoe was the #1 overall pick and $100 million dollar man.

 

[n1997y]

Can not expect 6-7 rounders or Undrafted free agents to be key cogs of the machine.

TB12 enters the chat

 

[WhatJustHappened]

#Squirrel waves hello....

 

[Huckleberry1]

Man, sign Wilkins. We’d have the best DL in the universe. Who cares if he likes sniffing feet…

There has to be more going on as no one has made any effort to sign one of the best defensive linemen in the game.

 

[Zuma]

 

[Brotherblues]

It's genius. Provides a confidence boost to our pass rushers as they get numerous wins in practice. Chess not checkers.

Anything to get Swinson going

 

[WhatJustHappened]

He obviously needs to get his **** together.

 

[Wozzy]

Anything to get Swinson going

Ponder seems to be the better player at the moment.

Proving yet again draft status means nothing after the draft ends.

 

[silentone]

I think 6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFA's are more valuable than some fans realize. Their salaries are so low that if they just make the 53 they create surplus value, and if they develop into starters, that surplus value can be meaningful. I think NFL teams started figuring this out maybe a decade ago, which is possibly why we now see more late-round pick swaps (like a 6th for a 7th + a player) instead of teams just tossing around 6ths and 7ths as if they are worthless. Given the lack of depth on the Pats roster, they are in a position (along with some other teams) to fill multilple roster spots to these traditional long shots. One could argue that teams with weaker depth charts should allocate greater resources to finding these diamonds in the rough. Also, just because these type of players make the roster doesn't mean the front office suddenly became brilliant drafters, it could also be there were simply a lot more opportunites because the depth was so bad.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I think 6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFA's are more valuable than some fans realize. Their salaries are so low that if they just make the 53 they create surplus value, and if they develop into starters, that surplus value can be meaningful. I think NFL teams started figuring this out maybe a decade ago, which is possibly why we now see more late-round pick swaps (like a 6th for a 7th + a player) instead of teams just tossing around 6ths and 7ths as if they are worthless. Given the lack of depth on the Pats roster, they are in a position (along with some other teams) to fill multilple roster spots to these traditional long shots. One could argue that teams with weaker depth charts should allocate greater resources to finding these diamonds in the rough. Also, just because these type of players make the roster doesn't mean the front office suddenly became brilliant drafters, it could also be there were simply a lot more opportunites because the depth was so bad.

They are valuable.....if they work out which is a very low percentage. When they do work it is obv a great development for their team, however studies have shown that 1 out of every 100 7th round picks secure a long time roster spot. 1%. So again, great in theory, but statistically very, very unlikely.

 

[mgteich]

Roughly a 25% of the entire NFL is UDFA’s…

So yes, you can expect to find talented players amongst their ranks… and late round picks.

Yes, the bottom of all team rosters is filled with inexpensive 5th rounders, 6th rounders, 7th rounders and UDFA's. And yes, some of them are the 1 in 100 that can become a long-term contributor.

I do agree that a team's success often is determined on how well one chooses these bottom third or quarter of the roster players. Belichick was a master in making these choices (and also in acquiring end of their career vets who contributed).
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You often say that teams ignore draft position once the draft is over and the camps begin. This simply isn't true. For example, the patriots do not cut rookies drafted in the first four rounds, not ever. These players don't compete for their roster spots. Those drafted in the later rounds fight for the roster spots and for a good start for their careers, starting on a 53-man roster. Even in their sophomore years, 1st and 2nd rounders are given wide berth. How many have healthy 2nd rounders have we cut?

Note that we are not discussing players who are injured. Injuries can certainly have an effect on the keeping or waiving of a player.

 

[Wozzy]

Yes, the bottom of all team rosters is filled with inexpensive 6th rounders, 7th rounders and UDFA's. And yes, some of them are the 1 in 100 that becomes a long-term contributors.

It’s not always the bottom of the roster, fairly often these guys are starters or real contributors.

Tom Brady was 36 picks from being an UDFA, Arian Foster, Wes Welker, Danny Amendola, Jon Jones, Jakobi Meyers, Kurt Warner, Malcolm Butler, JC Jackson…. now Chism.

Meanwhile a fair amount of 1st, 2nd and 3rds fail… they may get a longer leash but they fail as well.

 

[mgteich]

fairly often these guys are starters or real contributors.

Statistics is very, very difficult.

What is fairly often? One in a hundred?

How many UDFA's were signed this year? What percentage made 53-man rosters? What percentage of those do you expect to be contributors in their 3rd year, or even in the league? Is one in a hundred "fairly often"?

 

[silentone]

They are valuable.....if they work out which is a very low percentage. When they do work it is obv a great development for their team, however studies have shown that 1 out of every 100 7th round picks secure a long time roster spot. 1%. So again, great in theory, but statistically very, very unlikely.

Hi DoubleDeluxe,

I don't think 7th round picks are particularly valuable, I just think they are worth more than the average fan thinks and worth more than zero. In terms of studies, I assume you are referring to "Optimum Scouting - NFL Draft Study: Player Retetion". As you note, "roughly 1 in 100 secure long time roster spot" but I think the major part of the value of a late round pick is their initial low salary which creates the surplus value. So, for me the question isn't what is the probability of a player "securing a long time roster spot", it's what is the probability of a player creating surplus value and I think this is much better captured in the first four years of their career ie their first contract. A quick search on AI suggests these late draftees initially make rosters far more than 1% of the time. This is one of the main reasons late picks and UDFA are not worthless. The actions of GMs strongly support this. The evidence is pick swaps and signing bonuses for UDFA.

 

[Wozzy]

Statistics is very, very difficult.

What is fairly often? One in a hundred?

How many UDFA's were signed this year? What percentage made 53-man rosters? What percentage of those do you expect to be contributors in their 3rd year, or even in the league? Is one in a hundred "fairly often"?

Every year roughly 1000+ college players throw their name in the NFL hat, roughly 200-250 or so get a job.

The average NFL career lasts three years. This is the NFL, nothing is guaranteed and nothing lasts for long.

Like I said earlier, roughly a quarter of the entire league is made up of UDFA’s. And that’s not including late round draft picks, which we’re including in this conversation.

What does that boost the percentage up too, 1/3 of the NFL… more?

 

[BTTA]

You don’t understand that it’s not about probabilities, it’s about players.

The reason some players get a chance to stand out is that the teams play the probabilities. Throw 100 low picks and udfa's at a team and 4 or 5 will stick, usually at the bottom of the roster. If they knew who those would be, they'd draft them earlier. You think they had any idea Brady would be great? If they did, he'd have been their first pick.

This is entirely about probabilities. The teams that are good at spotting talent increase their odds a bit. That's what the teams are trying to do...improve the odds.