Our #4 and #5 Wide Receivers

[mgteich]

Yes, we could have used an additional major receiving threat in the championship game. I guess we could simply give up on Belichick's idea of improving the defense and running game and put a higher priority on the WR position. The reality is that with Gronk at 100%, we would likely have done much better in the playoffs this year and in the recent past.

IMHO, what is needed more than demoting Dobson to the #4 WR position is to bring in a TE or two. We went from Gronk AND Hernandez to Gronk OR Hernandez to Gronk half the year. We need to stop this trend or revamp the offense.

As always, we have resource concerns. We need a wide receiver or two, a center, a bruising RB, a top TE and a backup TE. For 2015, we need a guard and some running backs. All these must be paid for with draft picks and cap money. IMHO, the best use of money is on the re-signing or extending our own.

What we seem to want is a formula that guarantees a Super Bowl win. There is no such formula. We are one of the two best teams in the AFC. IMHO, we need to continue to improve our defense and our run game.

Of course, we will still bring in free agent wide receivers. We have choices from the top few (including Edleman), from the next group (including Sanders) and from the next group (including Collie). One from each column is doable. I am not sure of the most reasonable resource allocation. I suggest that Edelman and Collie and a JAG or two is what we will do.

In a perfect world, (or one where we really improve the offense) we would have Aaron Dobson as a WR4, who is big play capable (or that is the hope anyway), but still has some room to grow and be blended in one more year. I don't care how much offseason training and film study he'll be doing, I still don't trust him in our offense as a main target that we have to depend upon, at least not yet anyway. Let him continue to grow, see 25-30 snaps a game, have some plays designed to get him the ball, and see where we're at there. It isn't like he's costing that much. We shouldn't be "forced" to use him just because we chose him in the 2nd round anymore than we've be forced to use Tavon Wilson, Darius Butler, Jermaine Cunningham, etc.

I don't like the idea of forcing him the ball as our big play guy anymore than I did this year, and I am not as high on him as many others. I think he'd be an excellent candidate for the WR4 position, with the potential to be more for 2015.

I want another option for Edelman (or either Sanders/Amendola--depending on free agency). If that means overpaying a bit for 2014 and then asking Amendola to restructure or move on in 2015, then so be it. We need a better receiving option on the putside, and if that means taking a bit more of a chance than usual in terms of the salary cap, then so be it. Normally, I do not advocate such a move, but after seeing 3 straight AFCCG appearances leading to nothing at all, I am getting a bit more impatient. I am definitely not asking for the extreme side of the spectrum, like some of these "Larry Fitzgerald threads" either; just a realistic option to win.

Improve the depth across the board, and have Dobson as the WR4. Let Collie, Thompkins, etc compete for the 5th and 6th spots. Yes, I realize the salary cap implications of such a move, but that also doesn't mean that we'd need to spend as much as it would appear right off the bat either. Bring in some competition...make a move for a one year deal. Consider the possibility of parting with a 3rd/4th rounder in a trade...something. There are no guarantees of going to a 4th consecutive AFCCG, and we'll already likely have to overcome the law of averages as it is to do so. I am getting a bit ansy at this point in terms of remaining opportunities with Brady/Belichick, and that is for the first time ever.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Moving mark Harrison to a move tight end role would be awesome too. Guy that big who has 4.3 speed, I would imagine they would just need to teach him how to block

Blocking isn't something that you teach a guy in a week. It's half of the position, and is a skill much like route-running in that guys who are really good at it spend their career perfecting it. A TE who can't block isn't a TE at all; he's a WR, and teams will treat him like one and play a DB on him until he shows that he can execute a block at the point of attack on a running play.

This is fundamentally why Jimmy Graham isn't actually a TE, and why his agent will win if he fights the TE designation after being franchise tagged. The Saints put him in the slot and split him out wide 90% of the time because there's no advantage to having a guy play at the end of the line if he can't block. Just makes it easier to disrupt his route in the first 5 yards, with no corresponding advantage re: playcalling versatility.

All of those seam routes that Gronk runs are so effective because he's usually running them against linebackers. Whenever teams go light on him, the Pats run behind him and he buries whatever unfortunate DB is trying to cover him. This is how you know that he's actually a tight end.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Solution to fix offense

1. Resign Edelman
2. Draft Amaro (Ebron or ASJ if he is gone)
3. Develop Dobson and rest of rookie receivers (if one of them can have a big second season, we ll be fine)
4. Get amendola completely healthy (guy has to have a healthy season sometime, right? Even if just by fluke)

Call me crazy but I have no problem with collie being our 4th receiver, he gets open and can move the chains. Doesn't have a problem with drops and comes up with big plays in key situations

My guess would be that Amaro and Ebron will both be gone by the time the Pats pick. There was a time when you could expect one (and maybe both) of them to last to the end of round 1, but ever since the Gronk/Hernandez 2011 Road Show, the rest of the league has been desperately playing catch up. There's a good chance that all three will be gone.

Personally, I think there's about a 50/50 shot that one of the Amaro/ASJ will be available at #29 (pretty much guaranteed that Ebron won't be).

 

[ripatsfan91]

@bradyftwi I realize that blocking can't be taught in a week. But if they make the move now, Harrison will have all of mini camp otas and training camp to learn the position. He doesn't even need to be that good at blocking, was Hernandez that great of a blocker for a tight end? Harrison may not have the best technique, but he will definitely have the size needed to get the job done. The advantage comes more with his size and speed. It's hard to match up with that especially with a linebacker in coverage. and if they want to go light just run the ball

 

[mgteich]

Harrison will be given every opportunity. And yes, positions can be learned in the NFL. After all, Edelman learned to be a wide receiver and punt returner.

@bradyftwi I realize that blocking can't be taught in a week. But if they make the move now, Harrison will have all of mini camp otas and training camp to learn the position. He doesn't even need to be that good at blocking, was Hernandez that great of a blocker for a tight end? Harrison may not have the best technique, but he will definitely have the size needed to get the job done. The advantage comes more with his size and speed. It's hard to match up with that especially with a linebacker in coverage. and if they want to go light just run the ball

 

[supafly]

Yes, we could have used an additional major receiving threat in the championship game. I guess we could simply give up on Belichick's idea of improving the defense and running game and put a higher priority on the WR position.

I'm not suggesting anything near the extreme that you are making it out to be. I certainly don't want to give up on improving the defense, but I also don't know why that plays into such a concern either? I don't see the 2 as having quite the relationship that you do.

Why is so much MORE money needed this year on the defense, when Talib already counted almost 6 million vs the cap, along with Kelly/Wilfork/Mayo/Spikes etc. Why is the cost of the defense going to go up so highly in your opinion?

As far as the RBs, we're pretty much getting by very cheaply there, so I don't know why that would need to change as dramatically as you're suggesting either. The RB grouping shouldn't be going up that much either, and if it does by another million or so (cap hit), it's also possible that money will be saved in other areas.

I'd also remind that we have a bit more than last year to work with anyway, even though it's all relative. If we're going to look at it position by position when the cap itself goes up a couple/few million, then we can take that into account also just by dividing that couple/few million up into all positions right off the bat.

There's never any concrete formula in terms of what position spends more than others. It changes year to year, of course. For example, we'll likely never spend what we did on WRs in 2012 again anytime soon, but they obviously have proven that they can and will, should they deem it necessary.

I don't see Talib's cap hit going up any. If anything, it could possibly come down 1-2 million on a longer term deal, which could help to offset the change in retaining Edelman and/or Blount. We also have no idea who will be cut, restructured, have money converted to lessen their cap hit, extended, how closely they'll stick to the exact same model, and how much/if any the future expected raise from the 2016 TV money will come into play.

 

[50-yard-line]

I'm not suggesting anything near the extreme that you are making it out to be.

Asking again: Have you looked at the FA list? Who do you see on it that would help? Boldin, Nicks, Maclin, Cooper, Sanders? I doubt Boldin would come here. Can Nicks stay healthy (and if he's coming on the cheap, the Giants won't let him walk)? At least one of Maclin and Cooper will stay in Philly. And Sanders - I like the kid a lot - hasn't really shown that he'll be a substantial upgrade.

I'm sure BB is looking for cap casualties, but do you really see anyone out there who might be brought in to help?

Not trying to be sarcastic here or anything, just honestly curious what you're envisioning. I'm thinking Sanders is the most likely addition.

 

[mgteich]

Ok, let's separate offense and defense.

DEFENSE
You suggest that it will not cost anymore this year than last. Any signing of one of our free agents costs cap money. But I'll accept that we can may be able to sign Talib, Fletcher and the usual set of JAG's with cuts of defensive players (Sopoaga and Wilson) and a restructure (Wilfork).

OFFENSE
If you are not taking money away from the defense, where is the money coming from to sign Edelman, a new downfield threat, a center, a running back, a tight end and backup offensive lineman (UFA's: Edelman, Collie, Wendell, Blount, Hooman, Svitek)? I am just talking about re-signing or replacing what we have. You want to add another receiver. Is the highest priority really to sign TWO free agent receivers, including a major upgrade as a downfield threat?

We have a bit. We will get some from a Mankins restructure, a Slater extension and a Gostkowski extension).

RUNNING BACKS
You say that we don't need any money for running backs. Blount won't be free. Also, I suggest that we should consider extending Vereen and/or Ridley. After all, they are in their contract years. The alternative is to use the draft to add trainee running backs. Make no mistake, if we want our running game to continue to be a top 10 running game, then we will need to use significant resources in 2014 and in 2015.

THE HUGE 2016 INCREASE IN THE CAP
According to many in the media, many posters and many GM's, that was supposed to happen in 2013 and then again in 2014. Thank you for understanding that this won't happen until 2016, if it happens at all. I will believe in this when Kraft and Belichick act as if this is happening. In any case, I don't see this possibility as having much of an effect in 2014 for the patriots. To the degree that it is in important, it will be seen by other teams paying more for free agents and putting more monies in the out years than is usually the case.

PERSONALLY
If we can re-sign Edelman, Blount and Talib, my next priorities are TE and DE.

I'm not suggesting anything near the extreme that you are making it out to be. I certainly don't want to give up on improving the defense, but I also don't know why that plays into such a concern either? I don't see the 2 as having quite the relationship that you do.

Why is so much MORE money needed this year on the defense, when Talib already counted almost 6 million vs the cap, along with Kelly/Wilfork/Mayo/Spikes etc. Why is the cost of the defense going to go up so highly in your opinion?

As far as the RBs, we're pretty much getting by very cheaply there, so I don't know why that would need to change as dramatically as you're suggesting either. The RB grouping shouldn't be going up that much either, and if it does by another million or so (cap hit), it's also possible that money will be saved in other areas.

I'd also remind that we have a bit more than last year to work with anyway, even though it's all relative. If we're going to look at it position by position when the cap itself goes up a couple/few million, then we can take that into account also just by dividing that couple/few million up into all positions right off the bat.

There's never any concrete formula in terms of what position spends more than others. It changes year to year, of course. For example, we'll likely never spend what we did on WRs in 2012 again anytime soon, but they obviously have proven that they can and will, should they deem it necessary.

I don't see Talib's cap hit going up any. If anything, it could possibly come down 1-2 million on a longer term deal, which could help to offset the change in retaining Edelman and/or Blount. We also have no idea who will be cut, restructured, have money converted to lessen their cap hit, extended, how closely they'll stick to the exact same model, and how much/if any the future expected raise from the 2016 TV money will come into play.

 

[varjao]

You are a lot more patient than I am, my friend.

I have fully 100% given up on the thought of Thompkins being anything more than a WR4/5 next year (at best). He will need to have a strong TC to even make the team in my opinion.

We're talking about a guy who produced 11 total catches in the last 3 months of the season, and likely made it due to a lack of talent + the weird circumstances that surrounded our season. He served his purpose early in the season for 2013, but even that is a stretch.

This. I don't know where all this KT love is coming from, he's had some good numbers for a undrafted rookie, scored a few touchdowns but heck there was no other options, someone would have to be there to make the catches. Is Tom Brady throwing the ball. That TD against Saints ok, I take my hat off to him for that, but well one play is not enough for all this hype.

The fact that Slater was out there last sunday instead of KT is weird, he had some injuries but I can't honestly remember what he did in the second half of the season. I think BB already turn that page.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

The fact that Slater was out there last sunday instead of KT is weird.

He was inactive presumably due to the concussion from the previous week.

 

[varjao]

He was inactive presumably due to the concussion from the previous week.

I know that's my point, I can't judge the severity of his injury but didn't seem to be a big hit. He was training during the week and traveled with the team. I'm assuming he went to the bottom of the depth chart that's the reason he was inactive, but i'm only speculating here.

 

[SalemPats]

This. I don't know where all this KT love is coming from, he's had some good numbers for a undrafted rookie, scored a few touchdowns but heck there was no other options, someone would have to be there to make the catches. Is Tom Brady throwing the ball. That TD against Saints ok, I take my hat off to him for that, but well one play is not enough for all this hype.

The fact that Slater was out there last sunday instead of KT is weird, he had some injuries but I can't honestly remember what he did in the second half of the season. I think BB already turn that page.

KT won't be a member of the Patriots next year

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I know that's my point, I can't judge the severity of his injury but didn't seem to be a big hit. He was training during the week and traveled with the team. I'm assuming he went to the bottom of the depth chart that's the reason he was inactive, but i'm only speculating here.

There's a difference between being cleared for practice and for a game after a concussion.

I'm assuming next year our WR will be :

Dobson - clearly
Amendola - clearly
Edleman - think they'll sign him
Boyce - would be shocked if he didn't make it

*** That's 4

competition between KT/Harrison/low level draft pick/FA

If Edelman leaves, then the draft pick/FA would obviously be higher. TJ Moe could also have a shot if he's healthy and Edelman leaves.