OT: Upon further review: Frank Reich/Colts 4th down call

[BobDigital]

Let's talk about this call and take a step back from the hate of the Colts and talk purely about the logic behind the move and if there was a defense for it.

The situation is this for those who didn't watch the game. 4th and 4 at your own 42. Both teams have 1 TO and the score is 34-34 in OT with 27 seconds left. The Colts for the play and lost in OT.

My initial reaction was to call it a monumentally stupid call. As time has passed and I have gotten a chance to really think about it I don't think this call is as good as it looked on the surface. He's why.

#1 Their offense was rolling. 4 of their last 5 drives had ended in points (that is if you don't count the drive with 1 second left in the 4th quarter of course which I don't). That side of the ball was on a roll and the Texan's D was on the back foot. Given how well their offense was playing at this point a certain amount of confidence was justified in being able to make 4 yards.

#2 A tie in the NFL is a bad thing - While it is better than a loss, a tie in the NFL clearly isn't good enough. IF you get 16 ties you basically go 8-8. If your goal is to make the playoffs a tie generally isn't good enough. You need wins and mostly likely you need 10 of them. I believe with the current way the NFL is set up 9-6-1 won't get it done for you most years. 10-5-1 will and 10-6 shouldn't keep you out too often. While it varies year to year you need I think there is generally a good case for going for a slightly risky win as opposed to settling for a tie.

#3 They not only needed wins but THIS win - The Colts were 1-2 going into this game. If they were 2-1 or 3-0 they would have been in a much better position to take a tie. Right now the Colts need to make up ground. The Texans are a team they should be able to win against on their schedule and they have a lot of tough games and only 4-5 loses or ties they can afford to give up if they want to make the playoffs. The have the Jags 2 times, Titans 2 times and Patriots. It is hard to see them not taking 3 loses in that stretch with 2 of the top AFC teams and the Titans can easily split. While you shouldn't look too far ahead it is good to have an eye to the future.

#4 The odds of winning if they make the first down were high.

#5 The odds of making a 4th and 4 in a normal situation is pretty good in general. In the modern NFL that is above a 50% play in a wide open field and was even higher considering the way the Colts offense was taking it to the Texans.

All they above being said, would I have personally gone for this play? I don't think so, but I think it's worth pointing out this call may have been a lot closer and not as stupid than the knee jerk reaction we all had. Can we get an honest examination of the pros and cons of this play in the big picture of the season for the Colts? I think that be an interesting talk worth having.

 

[primetime]

There's already a thread on this. It was a bad call.

 

[BobDigital]

There's already a thread on this. It was a bad call.

I saw that just now lol. I missed it before somehow. I hope this gets moved there soon.

 

[Froob]

I saw that just now lol. I missed it before somehow. I hope this gets moved there soon.

In the heat of the moment tho, was making the thread really a bad call?

 

[Wordsmyth]

This fubar call was equal to that awkward ass fake punt they tried pulling against us during the last days of the Pagano Reign of Error.

 

[TommyD4207]

#2 A tie in the NFL is a bad thing -

Know what's worse than a tie in divisional tiebreakers? A loss.

To me, this play isn't 'aggressive', it's 'well, we're not going anywhere anyway'.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It wasn’t a horrible, mind-bendingly dumb call at the time, but Reich’s reasoning after the game made it an all-time stupid call. If he’d given different reasoning, like he was really confident in a certain play, thought Vinatieri gave them a huge advantage, etc. then it was still the wrong call, but at least I could understand it. He made the call because he considers a tie the same as a loss (with neither of them being a win.). That’s idiotic. Sounds like he would have gone for it on 4th and 40.

 

[scout]

This fubar call was equal to that awkward ass fake punt they tried pulling against us during the last days of the Pagano Reign of Error.

I disagree. That play had absolutely no chance, whereas there was a chance that a 5 yard gain is made on that call.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

#2 A tie in the NFL is a bad thing - While it is better than a loss, a tie in the NFL clearly isn't good enough. IF you get 16 ties you basically go 8-8. If your goal is to make the playoffs a tie generally isn't good enough. You need wins and mostly likely you need 10 of them. I believe with the current way the NFL is set up 9-6-1 won't get it done for you most years. 10-5-1 will and 10-6 shouldn't keep you out too often. While it varies year to year you need I think there is generally a good case for going for a slightly risky win as opposed to settling for a tie.

Know what's worse than a tie in divisional tiebreakers? A loss.

Well put @TommyD4207 . While a tie is theoretically not good enough because it’s a .500 baseline, the reality is it’s a rare scenario where a coach needs to make this type of decision. Reich looked horribly unprepared and unable to quickly run through some basic probabilities in his head.

They would have been much better off taking the tie in that situation.

You could argue teams should try for every win they can to because it’s only 16 games. There’s a mirror reason why you want to get the fewest losses. If the Colts turn it around and are in the playoff hunt, that half game they tossed into the garbage as “a measly tie” would sure start to look more important.

 

[TommyD4207]

Well put @TommyD4207 . While a tie is theoretically not good enough because it’s a .500 baseline, the reality is it’s a rare scenario where a coach needs to make this type of decision. Reich looked horribly unprepared and unable to quickly run through some basic probabilities in his head.

They would have been much better off taking the tie in that situation.

You could argue teams should try for every win they can to because it’s only 16 games. There’s a mirror reason why you want to get the fewest losses. If the Colts turn it around and are in the playoff hunt, that half game they tossed into the garbage as “a measly tie” would sure start to look more important.

I mean, say the entire AFC South finishes tied at 10-6, or something (Doesn't look like Jacksonville will, but who knows). Had the Colts punted and tied, they would have finished 10-5-1, winning the division, and the Texans would have finished 9-6-1, missing the playoffs. Divisional record is crucial when it comes to tiebreakers.

Just a stupid, meathead, herp derp move by Reich.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

If Houston had zero timeouts that helps them out a bit if they dont get it but they had one left.

 

[Wordsmyth]

I disagree. That play had absolutely no chance, whereas there was a chance that a 5 yard gain is made on that call.

Jim Carrey also ha a chance with Lauren Holly in Dumb and Dumber.

 

[Biffins]

If Houston had zero timeouts that helps them out a bit if they dont get it but they had one left.

Houston had zero timeouts.

 

[pctronics0072]

Doesn't the clock stop when you fail to convert a 4th down. Meaning it makes no difference if it was incomplete pass, pass that did not get enough yards, or run?

 

[TommyD4207]

Houston had zero timeouts.

If the Colts had run the ball and not made it, the game would have been over and a tie. Instead they threw an incomplete pass and stopped the clock with 24 seconds left. Houston threw a 20 yd pass and ran up to spike it with 3 seconds left and kicked the FG.

So basically throwing a pass was what made it even more stupid.

The game wouldn't have been over. Clock stops on change of possession.