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Continuing my series on Potential WC teams, lets talk about the Broncos. They finished 10th in PPG on offense and 3rd in PPG on defense.
Notable players on offense.
Rookie QB Nix had a very solid season. He is a duel threat and seems primed to be one of the better QBs in the NFL for years to come.
Sutton was the clear #1 WR and got 2x the yards of anyone else in the air with 1081. Mims is the young #2 in total yards (but not YPG, Vele was a bit ahead there). He made a small jump year 2 but not like they hoped with 500ish. Vele the 27 year old rookie got 475. He will be an interesting guy to watch. Is there still any room for him to improve? Troy Franklin is another rookie who produced a bit but i don’t think he will improve much on it. They really were hoping for more from Josh Reynolds but that didn’t happen. There was no TE of note really. BTW while i don’t talk about STs much, Mims is a scary return man. Worth noting.
Running duties fell to the young pair of Williams and McLaughlin. Williams is a 2 way threat and more of a bigger back while McLaughin is the small quick twitch guy who tends to get more YPA. Nix was their 3rd best runner for total yards. We need to however mention rookie Audric Estime who got over 300 yards. More of a bigger body too. This was truly a run by committee backfield.
For the offensive tackles Bolles and McGlinchey were older vets(30 and 32) who held it down well for them though Mcglinchey missed a little time (Peart and Palczewski stepped in). Powers and Meinerz were the guards and at Center was Watternberg who also missed a little time so Forsythe stepped in for him some. The interior, while clearly not rookies, are a little younger but still experienced. Wattenberg the Center had his first year as a full time starter. Basically everyone here was solid. Except maybe Forsythe as the back up center according to PFF. This line is just plain good with no weak spots. They put money into it and they are a well coached unit.
Notable players on Defense
The Dline convo starts with Zach Allen. He gets some serious pressure from the middle and plays a lot of snaps while doing it. Also plays outside just about as much as far as i can tell. Franklin-Myers is just about as scary... though his run D while not bad isn’t amazing. Roach is a very solid back up. Jordan Jackson played meaningful snaps for them but i don’t see him being a factor. DJ Jones is listed as a NT but he certainly doesn’t have the build or run stopping chomps to be a true NT. Again more of a rotational pass rusher type. Though his run D isn’t bad, just not amazing. This group pass rushes really well.
LB needs to be divided between edge and more true LB types. Their Edge guys are really good. Bonitto in particular is outstanding as we all should know. But Cooper his overshadowed running mate needs some props too. Tillman is a very good back up to them. And Elliss the rookie showed a little something in year 1. I’m curious how he will do in year 2. Their edge group is dangerous.
The interior is Barton who defended runs more than anything else. Justin Strnad ended up playing the other starting spot and wasn’t very good. He went in after Alex Singleton went down early. Singleton has been good for them as a tackling machine type.
At CB we need to start with Surtain. One of the best in the game. Nuff said. Behind him Moss on the outside and McMillian as the nickel where the other key guys. McMillian hasn’t been impressive. Riley Moss was okay to subpar in year 2.
Locke and Jones were pretty much the starting safeties all year. Jones was great. Locke was one of the weak links to the unit and the D as a whole.
FA Losses - Cody Burton - LB, Tremon Smith - CB, Javonte Williams - RB
FA Gains - Hufanga - S, Engram - TE, Greenlaw - LB.
Their biggest loss was at LB and Greenlaw is a potential upgrade anyway. Williams is a slight loss but nothing special. And a depth CB. Engram is a sneaky good get for them. Huge position of need and they were thin on pass catching options. Hufanga is the real get here... upgrading a weak position. Even before the draft they clearly improved.
Now for the Draft:
Barron - CB was the premier nickel guy in this draft class. Maybe the best CB in the draft overall. This is one of the highest picks I’ve ever seen a nickel go at as far as i can remember. In the New NFL we will probably see this more often. Harvey at RB IMO was a bit of a reach. I think there were better RBs on the board and better players. Pat Bryant is another interesting pick. Looking for a particular type more than best player. He has very interesting traits though and fits a mold for them and need. I think they were more for type over talent on both picks. Sai’vion Jones on the DL is a guy they hope adds to a strength and Quandarrius at LB adds to a thin spot on the roster for them after this year potentially. More of an Edge guy than interior guy at LB. Late picks at punter and TE round it out.
So they absolutely looked to fill spots of needs in this draft and did so very well but outside of their first pick I question if they got the best mix of value/fit/need. Barron at 20 though was a legit really good pick for them all around IMO.
So where do I see this team in 2025?
Their OL which helped carry this offensive group of relatively under talented skill players is back and intact. Their RBs are no worse IMO. WR/pass catching which was a huge issue for them should improve by young players getting more time and Engram alone, though i question how much those young year 2 and 3 WRs can grow. While this offense finished 10th in PPG it was helped by 5 defensive scores. They finished 19th in yards and while they were efficient the truth of their offense is in the middle of those 2 numbers. They needed to improve on skill player on O. Maybe some of their young talent steps up and some rookies shine. They still don’t have incredibly impressive skill players, but better than last year. I also don’t expect their running game minus Nix to be anything special... but no worse than last year either. They are really hoping Bryant can be a top 3 option for them immediately.
On D this unit was already good, and they improved. McMillien should be immediately moved to solid depth at nickel and adding their high profile safety really shores up the back end which was probably the weakness of this D. Middle LB play will get no worse and maybe better. They improved on both sides of the ball. I would not be surprised if they have the #1 D in the NFL next year if they stay healthy. It is worth noting they were very fortunate with health last year. Not that i wish anything bad, but that is something that is rare to be repeated. However i have to repeat again Elliss was their most promising rookie (outside of Nix of course). Maybe he can make a jump and do something for them as well at DE/DL.
It is worth noting last year one of their wins was against KC in week 17 who was not playing anyone. And while they had a hard division they didn’t play too many good teams outside of it. They lost both Chargers games, Baltimore, KC (the real one), Steelers, Bengals (in OT).... Their best win of the year was against the Bucs (who were pretty good). Their next best win of their total 10 wins was against Indy. Everyone else they beat was 5-12 or worse. Overall they ended up 2-3 against teams i consider more or less mid.. Lost against every clearly good team they faced and beat every bad team... of which they played 8 games against. I think their defense would have been ranked really well regardless... but this probably is a reason they ended up with a top 10 O when clearly they shouldn’t have had the talent for it.
Going into this year the Broncos are better but should have a harder schedule. 10-7 again is possible but it is possible they do worse with a better team potentially, assuming they don’t get another free win at the end, which i don’t think they will as i believe the AFCW will be a fierce contest this year. Their schedule looks a lot more balanced this year. They have 6 games they should win handily. They other 11 look to be closely split between being solidly an underdog or will be close contest. If they they want to make 10-7 or better they will need to prove they now have the horses to hang with the top and middle of the league much more consistently. They certainly have a chance.
While I really think their solid OL play will help get the most out of their skill guys i just don’t think it will be enough to move the needle for them unless Pat Bryant can be a year 1 thousand yard guy or close to it. If that happens they are in business. For now... I predict 10-7 again, but a more deserved one. While this team is up against the cap this year they have space in 2026 and really don’t need much. Sean Payton in the past 2 years has built a good foundation here and should have his QB. If they don’t trip up on those 6 free wins, they will be hard to keep out of the WC round and could even go 11-6. If they drop one of those easy wins though, things get harder for them. Also if the injure bug bits a little more this year which i think it probably will. I don’t see 11-6. So that is why i like 10-7.
Notable players on offense.
Rookie QB Nix had a very solid season. He is a duel threat and seems primed to be one of the better QBs in the NFL for years to come.
Sutton was the clear #1 WR and got 2x the yards of anyone else in the air with 1081. Mims is the young #2 in total yards (but not YPG, Vele was a bit ahead there). He made a small jump year 2 but not like they hoped with 500ish. Vele the 27 year old rookie got 475. He will be an interesting guy to watch. Is there still any room for him to improve? Troy Franklin is another rookie who produced a bit but i don’t think he will improve much on it. They really were hoping for more from Josh Reynolds but that didn’t happen. There was no TE of note really. BTW while i don’t talk about STs much, Mims is a scary return man. Worth noting.
Running duties fell to the young pair of Williams and McLaughlin. Williams is a 2 way threat and more of a bigger back while McLaughin is the small quick twitch guy who tends to get more YPA. Nix was their 3rd best runner for total yards. We need to however mention rookie Audric Estime who got over 300 yards. More of a bigger body too. This was truly a run by committee backfield.
For the offensive tackles Bolles and McGlinchey were older vets(30 and 32) who held it down well for them though Mcglinchey missed a little time (Peart and Palczewski stepped in). Powers and Meinerz were the guards and at Center was Watternberg who also missed a little time so Forsythe stepped in for him some. The interior, while clearly not rookies, are a little younger but still experienced. Wattenberg the Center had his first year as a full time starter. Basically everyone here was solid. Except maybe Forsythe as the back up center according to PFF. This line is just plain good with no weak spots. They put money into it and they are a well coached unit.
Notable players on Defense
The Dline convo starts with Zach Allen. He gets some serious pressure from the middle and plays a lot of snaps while doing it. Also plays outside just about as much as far as i can tell. Franklin-Myers is just about as scary... though his run D while not bad isn’t amazing. Roach is a very solid back up. Jordan Jackson played meaningful snaps for them but i don’t see him being a factor. DJ Jones is listed as a NT but he certainly doesn’t have the build or run stopping chomps to be a true NT. Again more of a rotational pass rusher type. Though his run D isn’t bad, just not amazing. This group pass rushes really well.
LB needs to be divided between edge and more true LB types. Their Edge guys are really good. Bonitto in particular is outstanding as we all should know. But Cooper his overshadowed running mate needs some props too. Tillman is a very good back up to them. And Elliss the rookie showed a little something in year 1. I’m curious how he will do in year 2. Their edge group is dangerous.
The interior is Barton who defended runs more than anything else. Justin Strnad ended up playing the other starting spot and wasn’t very good. He went in after Alex Singleton went down early. Singleton has been good for them as a tackling machine type.
At CB we need to start with Surtain. One of the best in the game. Nuff said. Behind him Moss on the outside and McMillian as the nickel where the other key guys. McMillian hasn’t been impressive. Riley Moss was okay to subpar in year 2.
Locke and Jones were pretty much the starting safeties all year. Jones was great. Locke was one of the weak links to the unit and the D as a whole.
FA Losses - Cody Burton - LB, Tremon Smith - CB, Javonte Williams - RB
FA Gains - Hufanga - S, Engram - TE, Greenlaw - LB.
Their biggest loss was at LB and Greenlaw is a potential upgrade anyway. Williams is a slight loss but nothing special. And a depth CB. Engram is a sneaky good get for them. Huge position of need and they were thin on pass catching options. Hufanga is the real get here... upgrading a weak position. Even before the draft they clearly improved.
Now for the Draft:
Barron - CB was the premier nickel guy in this draft class. Maybe the best CB in the draft overall. This is one of the highest picks I’ve ever seen a nickel go at as far as i can remember. In the New NFL we will probably see this more often. Harvey at RB IMO was a bit of a reach. I think there were better RBs on the board and better players. Pat Bryant is another interesting pick. Looking for a particular type more than best player. He has very interesting traits though and fits a mold for them and need. I think they were more for type over talent on both picks. Sai’vion Jones on the DL is a guy they hope adds to a strength and Quandarrius at LB adds to a thin spot on the roster for them after this year potentially. More of an Edge guy than interior guy at LB. Late picks at punter and TE round it out.
So they absolutely looked to fill spots of needs in this draft and did so very well but outside of their first pick I question if they got the best mix of value/fit/need. Barron at 20 though was a legit really good pick for them all around IMO.
So where do I see this team in 2025?
Their OL which helped carry this offensive group of relatively under talented skill players is back and intact. Their RBs are no worse IMO. WR/pass catching which was a huge issue for them should improve by young players getting more time and Engram alone, though i question how much those young year 2 and 3 WRs can grow. While this offense finished 10th in PPG it was helped by 5 defensive scores. They finished 19th in yards and while they were efficient the truth of their offense is in the middle of those 2 numbers. They needed to improve on skill player on O. Maybe some of their young talent steps up and some rookies shine. They still don’t have incredibly impressive skill players, but better than last year. I also don’t expect their running game minus Nix to be anything special... but no worse than last year either. They are really hoping Bryant can be a top 3 option for them immediately.
On D this unit was already good, and they improved. McMillien should be immediately moved to solid depth at nickel and adding their high profile safety really shores up the back end which was probably the weakness of this D. Middle LB play will get no worse and maybe better. They improved on both sides of the ball. I would not be surprised if they have the #1 D in the NFL next year if they stay healthy. It is worth noting they were very fortunate with health last year. Not that i wish anything bad, but that is something that is rare to be repeated. However i have to repeat again Elliss was their most promising rookie (outside of Nix of course). Maybe he can make a jump and do something for them as well at DE/DL.
It is worth noting last year one of their wins was against KC in week 17 who was not playing anyone. And while they had a hard division they didn’t play too many good teams outside of it. They lost both Chargers games, Baltimore, KC (the real one), Steelers, Bengals (in OT).... Their best win of the year was against the Bucs (who were pretty good). Their next best win of their total 10 wins was against Indy. Everyone else they beat was 5-12 or worse. Overall they ended up 2-3 against teams i consider more or less mid.. Lost against every clearly good team they faced and beat every bad team... of which they played 8 games against. I think their defense would have been ranked really well regardless... but this probably is a reason they ended up with a top 10 O when clearly they shouldn’t have had the talent for it.
Going into this year the Broncos are better but should have a harder schedule. 10-7 again is possible but it is possible they do worse with a better team potentially, assuming they don’t get another free win at the end, which i don’t think they will as i believe the AFCW will be a fierce contest this year. Their schedule looks a lot more balanced this year. They have 6 games they should win handily. They other 11 look to be closely split between being solidly an underdog or will be close contest. If they they want to make 10-7 or better they will need to prove they now have the horses to hang with the top and middle of the league much more consistently. They certainly have a chance.
While I really think their solid OL play will help get the most out of their skill guys i just don’t think it will be enough to move the needle for them unless Pat Bryant can be a year 1 thousand yard guy or close to it. If that happens they are in business. For now... I predict 10-7 again, but a more deserved one. While this team is up against the cap this year they have space in 2026 and really don’t need much. Sean Payton in the past 2 years has built a good foundation here and should have his QB. If they don’t trip up on those 6 free wins, they will be hard to keep out of the WC round and could even go 11-6. If they drop one of those easy wins though, things get harder for them. Also if the injure bug bits a little more this year which i think it probably will. I don’t see 11-6. So that is why i like 10-7.
