Opinions Of a Pessimist

[shmessy]

The BS (Male Bovine Fertilizer) warning flag has been hoisted!

Neighbor, you had a good post going until you hit this brown land mine. Graham is the number one TE because he brings more versatility to the table then Watson. When I watch tape, he is the best blocker on the team, O-line included. He is an athletic receiver with good hands who makes additional yards after the catch and is a challenge to bring down. Part of what makes the running game effective is little 260 pound Daniel Graham taking on 320+ pound DTs and winning.

Watson has all the tools to equal him at some point, but unless his blocking improves astronomically, it won't be this year. He improved steadily over the course of his first season, but watching the Denver and Jacksonville games you still saw him whiffing on key blocks. I expect him to keep getting better and to be a more potent force as a receiver after his "rookie" campaign, but he will continue as the #2 TE for another year or two.

Now that Seymour is signed, I rate the extension priorities to be Graham, Branch, Samuel/Wilson, Koppen/Hochstein. If TBC, Klecko, and Beisel step up and win starting or key role jobs this season, they'll make the priority list before the FA period next year.

By the way, welcome aboard (but wipe your feet please!)

B.O.R., you're an artist. Right on and well put. Graham is a devastating blocker and has beome a very decent pass catcher. At this point, he is a more well-rounded TE than Watson. The thing that concerns me is this business of a "second offseason shoulder surgery to the opposite shoulder than the one he had the first surgery on". Ugh.

 

[Hoodie]

B.O.R., you're an artist. Right on and well put. Graham is a devastating blocker and has beome a very decent pass catcher. At this point, he is a more well-rounded TE than Watson. The thing that concerns me is this business of a "second offseason shoulder surgery to the opposite shoulder than the one he had the first surgery on". Ugh.

I heard someone on WEEI (caller) say that Graham was a pick that fizzled. To their credit, Dale and Holley disagreed but not as strongly was I wanted them to. How could someone think he fizzled? When DG was a rookie he dropped alot of passes but since then he's been solid and ,as you point out, a great blocker which isn't flashy but it's one of those things that deserves credit.

One of my favorite plays from '05 was Graham's TD in the Atlanta game.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

B.O.R., you're an artist. Right on and well put. Graham is a devastating blocker and has beome a very decent pass catcher. At this point, he is a more well-rounded TE than Watson. The thing that concerns me is this business of a "second offseason shoulder surgery to the opposite shoulder than the one he had the first surgery on". Ugh.

I'm not surprised, think of the force he exerts when he out-leverages those mountains in the middle. Unlike Neal, he can't wear a harness to keep his arms down.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Yep. Grahambo isn't so-named for nothing. All he does is anything you ask him to, and better than you thought he would. Him and Watson are different type players, with Watson being more of the athletic "freak". But you'd say that about Graham, paired with anybody else - the Pats just have the option to use his less flashy talents as well (and the ones that you have a hard time attributing to him statistically, but that jump out at your when you watch a game.)

Unless he's got an agent from hell or just keeps his secret desire to play for Detroit well-hidden or something, no way Graham leaves.

The guys here have it right - you need 3 to field 2, and the fact that the new FB will be from the ranks of our "TEs" only adds to the Pats' versatility. If, God forbid, the Pats' tight ends suffer the type of plague that hit our secondary last year, we'd be two deep, both positions - and that's not even counting Vrabel.

The odd man out, once we're down to 53, might actually end up being Patrick Pass, but nothing about this scenario guarantees that any of the players mentioned needs to be an "odd man out".

As to the draft this year, the first two picks were pure magic, in my humble opinion. I guess this is what I love about the actual Pats draft, versus our usual stoopit speculation - they go by value, not need. I've talked about the "Christmas morning" feeling before, and I got it this year in spades.

The reason you don't know what they're going to do is there are just too damn many players for the layman with a day job to duplicate the Pat's evaluations, even if that person could peg them man-for-man at exactly the same spot as BB, SP, and their extensive scouting organization. We get all hot and bothered about "Lawson! Carpenter! No no, Tye Hill!" How can you be surprised when you know, year after year, the Pats have picked for value, not for positional need? The second best RB and best receiver in the draft, or the 4th or 5th best linebacker... hmmmm give me a minute... that's a tough one...

This is why, to me, Fans are after-the-fact analysts of the draft at best, at least as far as the Pats go. I mean, it would be easy to kick the Texans or whoever, if you were a fan, because they haven't proven over and over again that they're actually GOOD at this. The Pats have.

Just sippin the kool-aid and waitin' for TC,

PFnV

 

[Mike the Brit]

No no, he's a pessimist, not a whiner! A pessimist worries everything will go wrong. A whiner thinks everyone else is wrong.

There's plenty left to worry about on the team -- the injuries! the coaching turnover! the LB depth! -- but precious little to complain about.

"true wit is nature to advantage dressed,
What oft was thought, but neer so well expressed"

Alexander Pope

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

The BS (Male Bovine Fertilizer) warning flag has been hoisted!

Neighbor, you had a good post going until you hit this brown land mine. Graham is the number one TE because he brings more versatility to the table then Watson. When I watch tape, he is the best blocker on the team, O-line included. He is an athletic receiver with good hands who makes additional yards after the catch and is a challenge to bring down. Part of what makes the running game effective is little 260 pound Daniel Graham taking on 320+ pound DTs and winning.

Watson has all the tools to equal him at some point, but unless his blocking improves astronomically, it won't be this year. He improved steadily over the course of his first season, but watching the Denver and Jacksonville games you still saw him whiffing on key blocks. I expect him to keep getting better and to be a more potent force as a receiver after his "rookie" campaign, but he will continue as the #2 TE for another year or two.

Now that Seymour is signed, I rate the extension priorities to be Graham, Branch, Samuel/Wilson, Koppen/Hochstein. If TBC, Klecko, and Beisel step up and win starting or key role jobs this season, they'll make the priority list before the FA period next year.

By the way, welcome aboard (but wipe your feet please!)

I like Graham, but IMO, Watson is locked up for more years and has more upside. Sure Graham is the best starting blocking TE in the league right now, but Waston has only played one season and from what I heard his blocking isn't all that bad. Moreover, IMO, Watson is already a better receiver than Graham.

The gist of my Graham comments are this...

If Watson remains healthy, he'll likely be the #1 TE in 2006. How do you think Graham, who's entering a contract year will handle that? If you are using 2 TE sets, why throw to Graham, when you can throw to Watson? One of the TEs will have to remain on the LOS to block. Why not let Graham stay at home to block while Watson goes out on routes? The logical progression means that Graham's numbers will drop.

Personally I'd love to see Graham locked up. He's turned out to be a better player than the other 2 TEs who were drafted in the 1st round in 2002: Shockey, Stevens. But I question whether we can pay 2 TEs #1 money under the cap when finding a blocking TE isn't hard to find.

I would put Branch at the top of that list. Assuming Chad isn't a bust, he'll probably sign a 4-yr rookie deal. Locking up Branch will solidify a very talented WR corps for the next few years.

I like Samuel a lot, but I'm not too keen on Wilson. He played like a journeyman at FS last year. I think Wilson can be replaced. I think Hochstein is locked up for another year or two. Koppen's injury couldn't have happened at a worse time. However, this team has shown that it could develop centers quickly (I'm guessing Dan Stevenson is next???). If Koppen is fully recovered and has a great season in '06, he'll be gone. I don't see BB playing top dollar for a center.

I gave up on Klecko. He's too small to play on the LOS, can't play LB, and he was pathetic at FB (game at Carolina). Maybe he's a Rudy in practice?

I have not given up on Beisel. IMO, he could be moved to OLB. However, he looked lost reading and diagnosing plays. Beisel also made a costly mental error on WK# 1 vs Oakland, when he gambled for an INT/Defection on a short pass to LeMont Jordan that turned into a 20+ yard gain. Monty should have let Jordan catch the ball and timed his hit, which would at the very least limited the play to a short gain.

Thanks for the welcome. I guess?

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

What I would most like to see happen this season is the emergence of another "quarterback" on the defensive side of the ball to take over when Rodney is gone. I think his injury last year is the only reason the pats weren't in the SB last year.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I like Graham, but IMO, Watson is locked up for more years and has more upside. Sure Graham is the best starting blocking TE in the league right now, but Waston has only played one season and from what I heard his blocking isn't all that bad. Moreover, IMO, Watson is already a better receiver than Graham.

The gist of my Graham comments are this...

If Watson remains healthy, he'll likely be the #1 TE in 2006. How do you think Graham, who's entering a contract year will handle that? If you are using 2 TE sets, why throw to Graham, when you can throw to Watson? One of the TEs will have to remain on the LOS to block. Why not let Graham stay at home to block while Watson goes out on routes? The logical progression means that Graham's numbers will drop.

Personally I'd love to see Graham locked up. He's turned out to be a better player than the other 2 TEs who were drafted in the 1st round in 2002: Shockey, Stevens. But I question whether we can pay 2 TEs #1 money under the cap when finding a blocking TE isn't hard to find.

I would put Branch at the top of that list. Assuming Chad isn't a bust, he'll probably sign a 4-yr rookie deal. Locking up Branch will solidify a very talented WR corps for the next few years.

I like Samuel a lot, but I'm not too keen on Wilson. He played like a journeyman at FS last year. I think Wilson can be replaced. I think Hochstein is locked up for another year or two. Koppen's injury couldn't have happened at a worse time. However, this team has shown that it could develop centers quickly (I'm guessing Dan Stevenson is next???). If Koppen is fully recovered and has a great season in '06, he'll be gone. I don't see BB playing top dollar for a center.

I gave up on Klecko. He's too small to play on the LOS, can't play LB, and he was pathetic at FB (game at Carolina). Maybe he's a Rudy in practice?

I have not given up on Beisel. IMO, he could be moved to OLB. However, he looked lost reading and diagnosing plays. Beisel also made a costly mental error on WK# 1 vs Oakland, when he gambled for an INT/Defection on a short pass to LeMont Jordan that turned into a 20+ yard gain. Monty should have let Jordan catch the ball and timed his hit, which would at the very least limited the play to a short gain.

Thanks for the welcome. I guess?

Such a cynic to question a welcome, don't take criticism of your opinions to heart, we're all experts here, with all the short comings that implies.

Watson's speed gives him the potential to be a better receiver, but in his first year his hands weren't any better then Graham's from my easy chair perspective. As for his blocking, he missed a blocking assignment in the Oakland game that allowed Oakland to block Miller's punt, in the Denver playoff game you saw the NE RB getting stuffed at the line because Watson missed another blocking assignment (again, from my easy chair perspective). Grahambo is always engaged, while too often Ben is looking all twisted up like I do when I'm swinging a bat. Ben is progressing, but he was the #3 blocking TE last year behind the much maligned Fauria. I expect him to improve, but I will be pleasantly surprised if he takes over the #1 TE slot this season.

Now why leave Graham in to block each time? It makes the offense predictable if you used Watson as a receiver and Graham as a blocker. Tommy got burned early because his checkoffs at the line were getting predictable. Use every weapon you have in as many ways as you can manage and let the defense guess where your going.

As far as giving up on players, my school of thought is to support players on the roster, they're there because BB makes the roster up. Klecko is lightening quick in the trenches and strong enough to wrestle the big guys, unfortunately he will wear down faster given the size disparity. He didn't do the best job at FB last season, but he was also playing heavier with all the results that brings to a body's athleticism. I'd like to see him get a shot at Willie's ROLB slot. There are legitimate questions about his ability to play in space, but I have no doubts about his ability to seal the end of the line and turn a RB back into the pursuit. I can see him platooning with Beisel or TBC on the edge. We discount role players too soon, it is nice to have starters like Vrabes and Seymour, but our one down players have often been the edge in winning games.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Such a cynic to question a welcome, don't take criticism of your opinions to heart, we're all experts here, with all the short comings that implies.

I didn't take it that way at all, that's why I put in the smiley . Sorry if I gave you that impression.

I wasn't suggesting that they would use Watson strictly to catch and Graham only to block, but rather that the end result would be Watson out on pass routes (I'm going to throw a number off the top) 70% of the time. That will keep Graham's numbers down.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

Let me cheer you up!
All of the WRs you mentioned: Givens, Davis, Dwight, Patten weren't that good. IMO, Givens was overrated and the Titans won't like the results. Dwight is an over-30 return man. Davis wasn't worth the 2006 5th round pick we traded for him. Patten was a FA bust in DC. Hey, when you sign Randle-El and trade for Brandon Lloyd, while you still have Santana Moss, that doesn't speak well of Patten.

Feel better?

Givens and Patten were both solid #2 WRs not worth the money they got from other teams.

Dwight was a good return guy and a decent WR but not a tremendous loss. I liked him though and wish we had kept him.

Davis was an enigma. A few bright flashes... seemed to have good downfield speed but maybe not a good route runner. Not worth the 3rd we gave for him... especially for having him just one year.

I take exception to your Patten comment though. He was not a bust. He was playing well until getting hurt badly and missing the rest of the season. I live in Virginia and have to suffer through wall to wall redskin coverage ... I never heard him characterized as a bust.

***

We lost Givens and Dwight (A.Davis loss is negligible) and gained Jackson and Caldewell. I think we will be fine.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I thought you were gonna predict the Pats went 6-10 this year or something when you titled the thread 'opinions of a pessimist'.

I agree the Pats have holes right now but so does every other team and there's still time to address them. For the Pats the real free agency period starts with June 1st cuts imo.