One Scenario I'd Like For The Next Week

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mgteich

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MG's Short Wish List For The Next Week
------------------------------------------------
1) Trade for HOWARD, using Gronk's rights and a late draft pick or two.
2) Trade Thuney for a 3rd, freeing up $15M of cap money (going into the offseason, we really didn't expect the team to afford him). Obviously, I'm fine with a long-term deal, but I don't that it will happen.
3) Draft RUIZ at 23.
4) Sign NEWTON (or WINSTON)
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IMPROVEMENTS
a) a much needed TE who can block
b) a bridge QB who can help us win in 2020 and compete in 2021
c) a replacement for Thuney, who could be our starting C if Andrews has health issues
d) needed cap room (perhaps $7M: $15M less $8M Cam's 2020 cap cost)
e) an additional 3rd rounder
 

farn

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Rather have a Thuney extension than the corpse of Newton or Winston going 30/30. Especially because then cap space is not an issue.
I agree with “yes” Thuney / no Newton, Winston.

I’d much rather “see what we have” with Stidham. Maybe be lose more. Ok, we reset in 2021. Just feel like Hoyer-Newton-Winston : none of those guys gets NE closer to the SB. Maybe Stidham falls flat on his face. Fine, reset. At least we’ll know.
 

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I am a yes on #1, a maybe on #2, an "I have no idea" on #3, and a WTF? on #4.
 

mgteich

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OK, I'd like to extend Thuney also. Please suggest a contract, understanding that Thuney is now guaranteed $15M for 2020. And just, BTW, I don't understand those who think that we have no cap issues.

EXAMPLE 1
a 5 year $55M contract, with a $30M guarantee

This is a really a $10M per year extension with $15M guaranteed after 2020.
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Would Thuney even consider this? I suspect not. I would think that he would "bet on himself", take out an insurance policy, and expect more than $10M a year after the year ends.
=======
 

Pape

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Thuney for 10m a year is a pipe dream... I do want the Pats to extend him though. Now's the Time to do it with cheap QBs.

Getting Howard will cost too much draft capital. Losing that 2 for Sanu really hurts right about now. Stupid trade, all the way around.
 

TheRainMaker

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You and I already went over this, but how is freeing up money on Thuney going to benefit the Pats when there's nobody else to pay?

The line is already weak and he's the lone bright spot as of now. Trading for for a 3rd they'll probably get next year if he walk doesn't make much sense.

May as well keep him for one more year.
 

mgteich

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You and I already went over this, but how is freeing up money on Thuney going to benefit the Pats when there's nobody else to pay?

The line is already weak and he's the lone bright spot as of now. Trading for for a 3rd they'll probably get next year if he walk doesn't make much sense.

May as well keep him for one more year.

Ok I simply disagree. Maybe Belichick has a BRAND NEW strategy in NFL, entering the draft with the lowest cap money available of any team but the rams. Maybe Bill show how he is so good that he doesn't need cap money. Sure we can do a restructure or two, but so could everyone else in the league. It is NOT reasonable to proceed with no cap money. This greatly limits Belichick's options. Every transaction has to be immediately balanced by the end of the day.

We have rookies to pay, end of off-season costs, player own IR during the preseason and those put on IR during the season. What's that $6M? $8M?

After the draft, we might actually want to trade for someone. Of course, this is somewhat limited when you have ZERO cap money available.
 

ashley1992

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I agree that extending Thuney makes the most sense.
When you say "our line is already weak" in my opinion is exaggerating.
We won't have Newhouse or Ferentz starting which will be a huge improvement.

A Thuney, Andrews and Mason interior is fine. Wynn will be good. The biggest question is what do we do with Cannon? He's an average RT who had a bad year. Hopefully, he'll play like he did in 2018.
I'm not saying there aren't questions with our line, but it has the potential to be pretty good/much improved.




You and I already went over this, but how is freeing up money on Thuney going to benefit the Pats when there's nobody else to pay?

The line is already weak and he's the lone bright spot as of now. Trading for for a 3rd they'll probably get next year if he walk doesn't make much sense.

May as well keep him for one more year.
 

masterbouncer

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i dont get the logic to ship thuney in order "to save" 15M (which with an extension would be lowered most probably to 8-10M cap hit in the first year, depending on the contract structure and length, for an already proven great OG - actually the best Pats OL last year) and on the other hand wanting to sign ****ty QBs like Winston and Newton which would demand at least 15M if not more per year and would not help this Pats team at all, a struggling Diva and a turnover machine, no thanks

this are not back up QB like hoyer, they were starters last few years, not that this is a seal of quality but they will demand different money than full carrer backups like hoyer

rather see what you got with stidham and decide after the year if you think he will do it or go for another QB next years draft, in the end if stidham is a joke you will end up anyway in the top 10 in next years draft


if it is about to free up cap, than I would start with Sanu and his 6M caphit this year...no dead money and bye, you can draft some WR in this draft... cannon has a big question mark and could be traded/cut if the pats chose to pick OT with pick 23...etc.
 

mgteich

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I agree that extending Thuney makes the most sense.
When you say "our line is already weak" in my opinion is exaggerating.
We won't have Newhouse or Ferentz starting which will be a huge improvement.

A Thuney, Andrews and Mason interior is fine. Wynn will be good. The biggest question is what do we do with Cannon? He's an average RT who had a bad year. Hopefully, he'll play like he did in 2018.
I'm not saying there aren't questions with our line, but it has the potential to be pretty good/much improved.

Alright, Cannon is an average RT who had a bad year. I think that we have many more serious problems on the team than that, especially since Cannon costs us a reasonable amount of new money each year, certainly in keeping with an average starter.

IMO, there is no problem at all with a HEALTHY line of
Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon. [that is other than Thuney's cap cost]

Q1
Why won't Ferentz be starting again at center as soon as there is an injury? I would think that, as of now, he would be re-signed and active for every game. We could/should sign a veteran backup center, or draft Ruiz.

Q2
Why do you think that Thuney and the team will be able to agree on an extension? Are you OK with say $12M AAV on a 4 year extension? This is 5/$63M overall or $12.6 AAV.

Would Bill be OK? How about Thuney? I suppose Thuney might with a sufficient amount of guaranteed money. However, he is likely to worth more. . I don't think that Thuney would have accepted this in free agency. I suspect that if would, he would already be signed with us.
 

primetime

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I wouldn't draft Ruiz at 23. I like the player but the positional value just isn't there. You draft centers and guards on Day 2 and 3. Ruiz, Cushenberry, Hunt, Lemieux, Sternberg... it's a pretty good draft for guards and centers in the 2nd-4th rounds. I'd be surprised if they didn't draft a center/guard, but I'd be shocked if they stay put at 23 and drafted one there.

At this point I think the ship has sailed on bringing in Cam or Winston. I liked Cam as an idea but I suspect he'll sign with the Chargers after the draft. I think they could probably win with a bridge QB while the likes of Edelman and Gilmore are still available but I'm not sure they want to.

With Thuney, trading him for a pick just feels like a waste. He's a good player. At this point they'd be best extending him.
 

mgteich

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.

At this point I think the ship has sailed on bringing in Cam or Winston. I liked Cam as an idea but I suspect he'll sign with the Chargers after the draft. .

With Thuney, trading him for a pick just feels like a waste. He's a good player. At this point they'd be best extending him.

1) I suppose that the patriots can wait until after the draft just like the Chargers. Many have the Chargers drafting a QB, perhaps even Tua.

2) What kind of deal do you think that Thuney will accept. Could he have expected 5/$65M in free agency ($13M AAV)? He has $15M in hand, so I would expect that he might be being told that 4/$50M is reasonable for an extension, with enough of a guarantee.

Do you think that we would offer Thuney 4/$50M? Would he accept?

Are we really willing to pay Thuney $15M for one year?
 

patfanken

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1) I suppose that the patriots can wait until after the draft just like the Chargers. Many have the Chargers drafting a QB, perhaps even Tua.

2) What kind of deal do you think that Thuney will accept. Could he have expected 5/$65M in free agency ($13M AAV)? He has $15M in hand, so I would expect that he might be being told that 4/$50M is reasonable for an extension, with enough of a guarantee.

Do you think that we would offer Thuney 4/$50M? Would he accept?

Are we really willing to pay Thuney $15M for one year?
Some thoughts.

1. I think an extension for Thuney can be worked out that would recognized the Pats cap situation. I've read where the Pats will have close to 100MM in cap space in 2021. So why not work out an extension that would be structured that would give the Pats some relief this year, which would be balanced by an up tick in his cap # in year two when the Pats can afford that up tick. Then in the final 3 years of the contract a more balanced payment would come into effect.

With the return of Andrews, an offensive line of Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, and Cannon COULD be one of the better groups in the league with the likes of Frodtholt, Cajuste, Newhouse providing realistic competitive depth. And that's BEFORE the draft

A good OL mitigates a lot of deficiencies that don't show up in individual stats by most fans and the media. The other advantage would be that this OL have had a LOT of experience playing with one another. In a upcoming season where they looks to be a lot of disruptions, having that continuity is a plus.

2. I'm NOT signing Winston or Cam for all the reasons that have been stated by many on this board. I have a feeling that BOTH will become cheaper options as camps get close to opening again (probably in August). I don't know but the lack of ANY talk about Newton going somewhere to this point makes me wonder if his arm problem still exist.

3. For all the talk of looking for value in the QB market, no one is mentioning an obvious name. Josh Rosen. Miami will DEFINITELY be picking a first round QB this season to sit behind Fitzy for a month to a year. So Rosen will likely be cut, or traded for a low 7th and a bag of balls. Here is a kid who had consensus first round talent who has been as poorly used as any QB I can remember. He had different offenses AND coaches each year he was at UCLA. He had ANOTHER different one with Arizona, and yet ANOTHER with Miami.

To me there is no better QB value I can see for the Pats. Pick him up for a song (or nothing, because Miami will likely release him after the draft) and let him, Stidham, and Hoyer fight it out and may the best man win. With expectations at zero and a fair opportunity to compete, this might be just the place to revive a moribund career. Just a thought

4. Our defense has been gutted at LB and the DL. We have to replace Shelton, Van Noy, and Collins, and the draft seems like the best bet for that. For that reason, I believe our first 2 or 3 picks should go to help that area.

5. The other obvious need is at TE - Looking at the draft, there are no obvious solutions. There are a couple of developmental guys that have some late round interest, but nothing at the top seem like they would solve the problem as a 2 way TE.

So clearly the solution is to trade for one. OJ Howard has always been my favorite target. A good blocker who has been undeveloped as a receiver. I'd gladly give up a 7th and the rights to Gronk for him. I'd even give up one of our comp 3rds straight up.]

We are going to have to rely on a strong running game if we are to succeed this coming season. Howard would greatly upgrade that area of the OL. If he is on the market then we should do the deal.
 

PatsWickedPissah

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You and I already went over this, but how is freeing up money on Thuney going to benefit the Pats when there's nobody else to pay?

The line is already weak and he's the lone bright spot as of now. Trading for for a 3rd they'll probably get next year if he walk doesn't make much sense.

May as well keep him for one more year.

Nobody else to pay???
That assumes we do not sign any cuts by other teams * post draft through training camp cutdown. We ALWAYS have done so. Why? To improve the roster.
We need 2+ million for the draft class.
And another 2 for replacement players when starters & backups get injured in season.

* and of course we always cut someone during camp who creates cap space
 

TheRainMaker

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Ok I simply disagree. Maybe Belichick has a BRAND NEW strategy in NFL, entering the draft with the lowest cap money available of any team but the rams. Maybe Bill show how he is so good that he doesn't need cap money. Sure we can do a restructure or two, but so could everyone else in the league. It is NOT reasonable to proceed with no cap money. This greatly limits Belichick's options. Every transaction has to be immediately balanced by the end of the day.

We have rookies to pay, end of off-season costs, player own IR during the preseason and those put on IR during the season. What's that $6M? $8M?

After the draft, we might actually want to trade for someone. Of course, this is somewhat limited when you have ZERO cap money available.

Nobody else to pay???
That assumes we do not sign any cuts by other teams * post draft through training camp cutdown. We ALWAYS have done so. Why? To improve the roster.
We need 2+ million for the draft class.
And another 2 for replacement players when starters & backups get injured in season.

* and of course we always cut someone during camp who creates cap space
Next week we'll find out whether BB wants to keep Thuney or not. Teams always find creative ways to create cap room and I'm not worried Pats wouldn't be able to do so.

I agree that extending Thuney makes the most sense.
When you say "our line is already weak" in my opinion is exaggerating.
We won't have Newhouse or Ferentz starting which will be a huge improvement.

A Thuney, Andrews and Mason interior is fine. Wynn will be good. The biggest question is what do we do with Cannon? He's an average RT who had a bad year. Hopefully, he'll play like he did in 2018.
I'm not saying there aren't questions with our line, but it has the potential to be pretty good/much improved.
Their line wasn't very good in the pass or run game last year even when Wynn returned. Them not having competent TE's and FB exposed them greatly in the ground game. And they were doing a lot of chasing in pass protection with Brady either running around or throwing balls in the dirt because the line was allowing pressure quickly.

Wynn proved to be durable after he finally returned but he had bad habits of starting games very shaky. Hopefully he doesn't miss any time in camp.

Andrews is still a question mark. He thinks he's on the right track to recovery.
 

mgteich

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Some thoughts.

1. I think an extension for Thuney can be worked out that would recognized the Pats cap situation. I've read where the Pats will have close to 100MM in cap space in 2021. So why not work out an extension that would be structured that would give the Pats some relief this year, which would be balanced by an up tick in his cap # in year two when the Pats can afford that up tick. Then in the final 3 years of the contract a more balanced payment would come into effect.
.

It isn't difficult to structure a contract that gives us 2020 cap help
5 YEAR STRUCTURE
-------
2020 salary $1M
bonus $35M
would give us a 2020 cap hit of $8M, a $7M savings over our current situation.

The open question is what Thuney and the patriots can agree to for the rest of the contract.

For example
2021 $4M
2022 $8M
2023 $10M
2024 $12M

I think that this might be reasonable, but would Belichick be willing to pay $14AAV?
 

mgteich

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Some thoughts.

3. For all the talk of looking for value in the QB market, no one is mentioning an obvious name. Josh Rosen. Miami will DEFINITELY be picking a first round QB this season to sit behind Fitzy for a month to a year. So Rosen will likely be cut, or traded for a low 7th and a bag of balls. Here is a kid who had consensus first round talent who has been as poorly used as any QB I can remember. He had different offenses AND coaches each year he was at UCLA. He had ANOTHER different one with Arizona, and yet ANOTHER with Miami.

To me there is no better QB value I can see for the Pats. Pick him up for a song (or nothing, because Miami will likely release him after the draft) and let him, Stidham, and Hoyer fight it out and may the best man win. With expectations at zero and a fair opportunity to compete, this might be just the place to revive a moribund career. Just a thought

.

I'd be fine with waiting until after the draft for a veteran. I would be more than fine with Rosen.

I would not be fine with Stidham, Hoyer and a 6th rounder.

I guess that we need to see what the QB situation is around the league after the draft.
 
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