Thoughts on this game, the pats, and the league.
1. The Pats aren't for real, but neither is anyone else, at least in the AFC for sure. So oddly, they are for real by default. I've rarely seen a year in football with so many teams that are so flawed. Even the absolute top teams like the Bucs and Cards don't feel 100% real. I believe a large part of it comes down to QB play. There is no truly great QB play right now in the NFL. Mahomes? He fell too in love with a style that isn't sustainable against 2 deep without crazy weapons and seems to be lacking fundamentals. Brady is still legit, but he just isn't as consistent as he use to be. Rodgers is refusing to try elevate the offense to protect his stat line, and without an all world OL and a plathora of weapons he refuses to risk his precious TD/Int ratio in the name of something mundane like scoring. Murray looks scary, but is untested. I just don't see the legit consistently amazing QB play this year we've seen in years past. Not surprising. Brees retired. Brady and Rodgers are both getting older. Mahomes has come down to earth... No one right now who is proven is playing HOF level ball from that position on a week in week out basis. But this is PARTICULARLY true in the AFC, which has opened the door massively.
2. The D is legit. People will be quick to point out 10 PPG from the D in the last 6 games. While that's true, it won't sustain quite at that level going foward. We've gotten to face injured teams, weak offenses and defensively favored conditions. But at some point you have to admit this D, if not amazing, is legit. They are simply put, the best D in the NFL. And I feel comfortable saying that. I still wish they had Gilmore. If they did I would feel a hell of a lot better about them making a run. Still, Judon has been one of the best defensive players this year. KVN has come in and has shown again what happens when good talent meets perfect scheme fit. Collins is actually the forgotten man but is part of the reason and we haven't felt the loss of the much pumped up Uche who started hot then cooled off before going to IR. Judon has just been that good. Of course we need to also mention Jackson's impact, who has proven he is a legit #1 CB. The rest of the DBs have stepped up well and kept this coverage unit as arguably the best in the NFL. The depth here has been sensational.
3. Offensive by opportunity. Mac has stepped in and played well, but if he was the 2nd coming he would have passed more than 3 times in the most important game of the year so far. And don't say he couldn't have. Josh Allen passed in those same conditions fairly successfully. Simply put, it was possible for the more experienced Allen, but not for Mac to be semi-effective in those conditions. This offense has struggled all year, yet they are 8th in PPG before this week. It goes to show how good defense can help a so so offense. And this offense has been good recently at not giving up chances for the other team and occasionally putting together good drives and scoring at least something when given good field position. The consistency of a guy like Nick Folk can't be understated in what has become a bit of a 'small ball' offense for the most part. But that doesn't mean they are bad. They have shown they have talented guys who can make plays and do their job well. But the hero right now is the OL which we had high hopes for and has come alive, but it not just them. Everyone is blocking well including TEs, WRs and FBs.
4. Tone of the game. This is something that really isn't talked about but is important within the confines of a team like the Patriots. Discipline is everything, and with enough of it, you can usually impose your will on a game. This isn't about running the ball for huge chunks again and again or eating up lots of clock with each possession, when those drives end in points. Those are just different forms of effective offense. I'm taking about tone. As weird as this is to say, one of the ways to help your defense can sometimes be with a subpar/average offense. While some Ds are built to play with a lead, it typically isn't helpful to most. One of the worst things you can do to your D is put an offense across from them that HAS to score. The rules in the NFL favor the offense. Generally they will score more than not if they push the envelope. But NFL coaches, like most very successful people, are extremely conservative by nature, even at the cost of efficiency. And they can be lulled into playing a sub-optimal strategy when given a reason to do so. The way the Patriots are playing right now not just good, it is an examination of physiology. Keeping them game in reach for 55 minutes is bad for fans, but oddly enough, sometimes good for your team IF they are built a certain way. And the Patriots are built in such a way.
Look at what happened in this game. Conditions made both teams conservative, and the Pats compensated by being ultra conservative. They weren't worried about scoring. Points will come to you sooner or later if you don't get in your own way in the NFL and just play soundly. Bill knows this. All it took was 1 bad angle and a nice cut back and bam! 6 points plus a 2PC. The Bills getting that TD on that muffed punt was unfortunate, but it could be argued to have helped the D. Then what happened? Punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, fg, fg and now we are in the 4th quarter with a lead. One of the worst things you can do as an offense and as a coach is convince yourself 'there is always next drive', Yet, when you are playing a low scoring game that is in reach, the conservative can't help but come out of you. You can't help but think 'I don't want to make a mistake and let them blow the game open'. It effects your play calling and it effects the players on the field to a degree. Then at the end you look up at the clock, and you realize it is do or die time, and you have to suddenly change gears. Most people and organizations have issues with it. They can do it, but it won't typically look as good as it would if they had that same mentality the whole game. Look at what the Bills did when push came to shove and they HAD to score on our D. FG, missed FG (that was within reasonable range), drive that stalled in the red zone. They had their 3 best drives of the night when they felt pressured to have them, but they couldn't get it done. This is a fairly typical story in sports and particularly football is where it is most visible. They were put under pressure and needed to change their mentality at the end to get the win, and they failed against a Good D. They did had played well at night and had the advantage of the momentum they'd built all game, the offense needed to build momentum it didn't have all game.
If you were to have an AI coach football you'd likely see more blow outs, but you would never see these kind of games. The fact is this. If they Bills played more aggressive all game they could have scored more. They also could have lost the game by the mid 3rd quarter when errors compounded. The lack of urgency from the Bills and other teams that have faced the Pats this year has been a consistent trap I believe BB has tried to lul them into, and it worked wonderfully last night. Also, just to be clear, this is not me saying BB is not trying to score. Just BB is looking to take the urgency away from it. He wants to play safe and lure you into playing safe. And almost every team will fall for it, cause they don't realize that is exactly the 100% NOT safe thing to do against a team built like the Patriots. This is also why the team i fear the most to play is a team like the Bucs or KC that will go for big plays regardless of any tone you try to set.
