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Official Free Agency 2018


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stuff like this is integral to my enjoyment of Patsfans. I can't be the only one who lurks here just to find amusement in the lengths people will go to have an argument. Monty Python esque

Bravo to all

And it's not even 9am yet on the east coast.
 
Hogan didn't play his first NFL snap until he was 25 whereas Patterson was starting as a 22 year old rookie and has played fewer career games than Patterson. Yet Hogan has 400 more career receiving yards.

To be fair, Patterson's an exceptional special teamer and he can contribute on offense through athleticism, but generally you'd prefer he stays on the sideline. I don't mind the special teams prowess in a fifth receiver.

All true.

However, I was comparing the past five regular seasons of total production from scrimmage (regardless how achieved), their current ages (regardless when they started) and their 2018 salary cap numbers.

Not sure why I'd favor keeping one "on the sideline" over the other when their scrimmage yards/game and their TDs per season are nearly identical. Success on offense is not exclusively about receiving yards, positional designations notwithstanding.

BTW - Patterson has played 80 regular season games in five seasons (hasn't missed a game in his career). Hogan has played 72 games in the past five seasons.
 
stuff like this is integral to my enjoyment of Patsfans. I can't be the only one who lurks here just to find amusement in the lengths people will go to have an argument. Monty Python esque

Bravo to all
It’s definitely integral to enjoy the places you visit online.
 
UNWARRANTED SPECULATION

We will have about 50% of the cap tied up in out top 10 players (last I saw, it was 53%), This isn't the way Belichick has run the team since he's been here. The patriots have always paid more for "lower"level players, the STers, the backup OT's, the role players.

I feel a trade of a top 10 player coming.

I am NOT suggesting that the cap can't be managed without such a trade. Brady will be extended. That will free up enough to give us a total of $10M of "usable" cap space.
 
It’s definitely integral to enjoy the places you visit online.

"integral" is different for different folks. Our swing OT has been very important for this team for awhile now. Cannon was paid starting pay when he filled this role. With Solder and Cannon, the backup OT was very important. However, we had 3: Waddle, Fleming, and Croston; all played. So, no, Fleming wasn't integral to the team's success.
Obviously, when Cannon and Waddle were injured, Fleming was more important.

That being said, I would be very happy to see us pay fleming $6M-$10M AAV or so to come back. The cap can be worked out. The "real" contract would depend on the 2019 salary. The contract would have only $4M dead money after 2 years.

2018 cap - $3M
4 years
bonus $8M
2018 salary $1M
2019-2021 salaries TBD
possible bonus before 2020 season
some guaranteed 2019 money
 
UNWARRANTED SPECULATION

We will have about 50% of the cap tied up in out top 10 players (last I saw, it was 53%), This isn't the way Belichick has run the team since he's been here. The patriots have always paid more for "lower"level players, the STers, the backup OT's, the role players.

I feel a trade of a top 10 player coming.

I am NOT suggesting that the cap can't be managed without such a trade. Brady will be extended. That will free up enough to give us a total of $10M of "usable" cap space.

That’s possible, one way or another I think they have already made plans for freeing up a big chunk of cap space. It could come in the form of restructures or extensions, or it could be a significant trade. Should be interesting to see.
 
UNWARRANTED SPECULATION

We will have about 50% of the cap tied up in out top 10 players (last I saw, it was 53%), This isn't the way Belichick has run the team since he's been here. The patriots have always paid more for "lower"level players, the STers, the backup OT's, the role players.

I feel a trade of a top 10 player coming.

I am NOT suggesting that the cap can't be managed without such a trade. Brady will be extended. That will free up enough to give us a total of $10M of "usable" cap space.

Brady = $22M ....... $8.0M saved in trade
Gilmore = $12.5M ... ($1.9M cost)
McCourty = $11.9M .. $4.1M saved
Gronk = $10.9M ..... $6.9M saved **
Hightower = $8.5M .. $1.0M saved

Cooks = $8.5M ...... $8.5M saved **
Cannon = $5.8M ..... $1.6M saved
Chung = $5.4M (with new extension thru 2020)
Allen = $5.0M ...... $5.0M saved
Gost = $5.0M ....... $3.5M saved

TOTAL = $95.5M

Adjusted cap number = $186.2M ($95.5M = 51.3% of this)
Total cap expenditures = $170.5M (56% of this)
Top 51 (what counts now) = $160.4M (59.5% of this)

** Seems most likely to be one of these two, if it happens. Far more cap savings can be gained from extension-restructurings, though.
 
All true.

However, I was comparing the past five regular seasons of total production from scrimmage (regardless how achieved), their current ages (regardless when they started) and their 2018 salary cap numbers.

Not sure why I'd favor keeping one "on the sideline" over the other when their scrimmage yards/game and their TDs per season are nearly identical. Success on offense is not exclusively about receiving yards, positional designations notwithstanding.

BTW - Patterson has played 80 regular season games in five seasons (hasn't missed a game in his career). Hogan has played 72 games in the past five seasons.

You keep Patterson on the sidelines because a guy who occasionally has 50 yard runs on reverses but gains most his yards on short bubble screens is simply less valuable than a player who can run any route on the tree. You can only have eleven players on the field, and five skill positions. Three of those are almost always going to be Gronk, Edelman, and Cooks. Sometimes it may make sense to play Patterson as one of the other two players, but he's going to be well behind Hogan, Burkhead, White, Allen, etc. in the pecking order.
 
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You keep Patterson on the sidelines because a guy who occasionally has 50 yard runs on reverses but gains most his yards on short bubble screens is simply less valuable than a player who can run any route on the tree. You can only have eleven players on the field, and five skill positions. Three of those are almost always going to be Gronk, Edelman, and Cooks. Sometimes it may make sense to play Patterson as one of the other two players, but he's going to be well behind Hogan, Burkhead, White, Allen, etc. in the pecking order.

That said, arguing with myself now, Patterson's been more effective on a per-snap basis than Hogan over his career. Patterson's played 2,020 regular season snaps whereas Hogan's played 2,680. For Patterson, that's 0.80 receiving yards and 1.03 yards from scrimmage per snap; for Hogan it's 0.78 and 0.79 respectively. Of course, you would need a finer-toothed comb to know how many of those plays were running plays versus routes run; PFF has the routes run data but it's in their premium section and I ain't paying for that.

Patterson's been effective his whole career as a part-time player so there's no reason to think he couldn't be again in New England, especially playing with the best quarterback he ever has.
 
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stuff like this is integral to my enjoyment of Patsfans. I can't be the only one who lurks here just to find amusement in the lengths people will go to have an argument. Monty Python esque

Bravo to all
 
That said, arguing with myself now, Patterson's been more effective on a per-snap basis than Hogan over his career. Patterson's played 2,020 regular season snaps whereas Hogan's played 2,680. For Patterson, that's 0.80 receiving yards and 1.03 yards from scrimmage per snap; for Hogan it's 0.78 and 0.79 respectively. Of course, you would need a finer-toothed comb to know how many of those plays were running plays versus routes run; PFF has the routes run data but it's in their premium section and I ain't paying for that.

Patterson's been effective his whole career as a part-time player so there's no reason to think he couldn't be again in New England, especially playing with the best quarterback he ever has.

Interesting thought, actually, in drawing a distinction between full-time and part-time players, especially applied to the pass receivers.

Using seat-of-the-pants percentages to make that distinction ...

In 2016, the (non-RB) pass receivers who might be considered "full time" (80%+ of the snaps in the majority of games played) were pretty much:
Edelman
Bennett
Hogan (when Gronk was injured)

In 2017, it was:
Cooks
Gronk
Hogan (when Hogan was healthy)

All the rest of the of the pass receivers (Amendola, Mitchell) were effectively "part-timers" (~ 65% of the snaps or less, most of the time). Mitchell got a bump in % near the end of 2016 when Amendola was out with an injury (ankle, I think).

So, I wonder ... If Gronk had been healthy in 2016 and Edelman healthy in 2017, would that have knocked Hogan down to a "part time" role? Or, would they have run sets with 3 WRs + Gronk more frequently (2 WR + 2 TE in 2016)?

So, looked at from this perspective, especially with Amendola gone, Patterson seems like a decent candidate for the top "part timer" role, just below (or perhaps even tied with) Hogan.
 
An Ebron sighting ...

 
Strange, maybe, that Murray hasn't found employment yet. Gotta wonder about his asking price. I can't imagine he's looking for something near the $6.95M that Titans would have been giving him in 2018.

 
Im so much happier with Hill than a broken down Murray
 
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Damn Cowboys what are they doing to us both Flemming and Waddle?
They are driving their costs up let's hope we have a plan thats not starting Tobin to protect Brady's blindside
 
Im so much happier with Hill than a broken down Murray

Not sure why you think Murray is "broken down". He lost significant snaps and carries last season to Derrick Henry.

Meanwhile, it was Hill who lost half of last season to an ankle injury - perhaps the main reason that the Pats got him for $1.33M.

Moot point, since Murray would never have taken anything that low (I'd guess that Murray ends up around the same as Blount ... about $4.5M).
 
Not sure why you think Murray is "broken down". He lost significant snaps and carries last season to Derrick Henry.

Meanwhile, it was Hill who lost half of last season to an ankle injury - perhaps the main reason that the Pats got him for $1.33M.

Moot point, since Murray would never have taken anything that low (I'd guess that Murray ends up around the same as Blount ... about $4.5M).
Agree about the financials but I don't want to pay a back over 28 that kind of coin.
 
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