Free Agents - Projected AAV's and First Year Cap Hits

[mgteich]

I use this site to show the possible relationship between AAV's and first year cap hits.

I would expect the first year cap hit to be 1/3 to 1/2 of AAV. And this might be made lower with mor aggressive use of void years and other tools.

https://atozsports.com/nfl/nfl-free-agent-contract-projections-2024-top-105/

I would note that $7M of first year cap hit is projected be enough for almost all of the top 50 free agents, including 7 of the top 20.

 

[jmt57]

Interesting list/projections from that article.

A few names and numbers that caught my eye (after disregarding those that are termed "likely to be franchised". Unfortunately that eliminates most of the quality WRs that the Patriots need. Even with that, you can mix and match a decent free agency haul with the cap money that the Pats have at their disposal.

The lack of offensive tackles available is disheartening. Obviously the team will need to use an early draft pick on the position, but it would be nice to bring some clarity to the position prior to that via free agency (some combination of Onwenu plus the two OTs below).

Quarterbacks:
#3: QB Baker Mayfield: 3yrs, $82.5m, $27.5m apy; $12.5m 2025 cap
#24: QB Ryan Tannehill: 1 yr, $13.5m, $13.5m apy; $4.0m 2025 cap
#79: QB Jameis Winston: 1 yr, $4.0m, $4.0m apy; $2.5m 2025 cap

Wide Receivers:
#5: WR Mike Evans: 3 yrs, $75.0m, $25.0m apy; $11.0m 2025 cap
#25: WR Gabe Davis: 3 yrs, $37.5m, $12.5m apy; $6.5m 2025 cap
#52: WR Darnell Mooney: 2 yrs, $16.0m, $8.0m apy; $4.6m 2025 cap
#73: WR/KR Jamal Agnew: 1 yr, $4.25m, $4.25m apy; $2.05 2025 cap

Tight Ends:
#41: TE Dalton Schultz: 3 yrs, $26.3m, $8.75m apy; $4.5m 2025 cap
#57: TE Hunter Henry: 2 yrs, $15.0m, $7.5m apy; $3.5m 2025 cap

Running Backs:
#28: RB Josh Jacobs: 3 yrs, $36.0m, $12.0m apy; $6.0m 2025 cap
#33: RB Saquon Barkley: 3 yrs, $31.5m, $10.5m apy; $4.2m 2025 cap
#34: RB Derrick Henry: 2 yrs, $20.0m, $10.0m apy; $5.0m 2025 cap
#56: RB Tony Pollard: 3 yrs, $22.5m, $7.50m apy; $3.5m 2025 cap
#81: RB Zack Moss: 2 yrs, $7.50m, $3.75m apy; $2.50m 2025 cap
#98: RB D'Onta Foreman: 1 yr, $2.75m; $2.75m cap hit
#102: 3rd down RB Antonio Gibson: 1 yr, $2.5m; $2.5m cap hit

Offensive Tackle:
#26: OT Tyron Smith: 2 yrs, $25.0m, $12.5m apy; $4.5m 2025 cap
#90 Swing Tackle Cornelius Lucas: 1 yr, $3.0m; $2.20 m 2025 cap
Edge Defender:
#9: Edge Danielle Hunter: 3 yrs, $67m, $22m apy; $9.0m 2025 cap
#21: Edge Bryce Huff: 4 yrs, $58m, $14.5m apy; $5.5m 2025 cap
#32: Edge Jadeveon Clowney: 1 yr, $10.5m, $10.5m apy; $3.1m 2025 cap
#37: Edge Mike Danna: 2 yrs, $19.0m, $9.5m apy; $4.9m 2025 cap
#48: Edge Josh Uche: 1 yr, $8.50m, $8.5m apy; $4.9m 2025 cap
#54: Edge Andrew Van Ginkel: 2 yrs, $15.0m, $7.5m apy; $3.2m 2025 cap
#61: Edge D.J. Wonnum: 2 yrs, $13.0m, $6.5m apy; $3.0m 2025 cap
Safety:
#23: SS Kyle Dugger: 3 yrs, $40.5m, $13.5m apy; $7.0m 2025 cap
#30: FS Xavier McKinney: 3yrs, $35m, $11.6m apy; $6.5m 2025 cap
#47: FS Geno Stone: 3 yrs, $25.5m, $8.5m apy; $4.0m 2025 cap

 

[mgteich]

Interesting list/projections from that article.

A few names and numbers that caught my eye (after disregarding those that are termed "likely to be franchised". Unfortunately that eliminates most of the quality WRs that the Patriots need. Even with that, you can mix and match a decent free agency haul with the cap money that the Pats have at their disposal.

The lack of offensive tackles available is disheartening. Obviously the team will need to use an early draft pick on the position, but it would be nice to bring some clarity to the position prior to that via free agency (some combination of Onwenu plus the two OTs below).

Quarterbacks:
#3: QB Baker Mayfield: 3yrs, $82.5m, $27.5m apy; $12.5m 2025 cap
#24: QB Ryan Tannehill: 1 yr, $13.5m, $13.5m apy; $4.0m 2025 cap
#79: QB Jameis Winston: 1 yr, $4.0m, $4.0m apy; $2.5m 2025 cap

Wide Receivers:
#5: WR Mike Evans: 3 yrs, $75.0m, $25.0m apy; $11.0m 2025 cap
#25: WR Gabe Davis: 3 yrs, $37.5m, $12.5m apy; $6.5m 2025 cap
#52: WR Darnell Mooney: 2 yrs, $16.0m, $8.0m apy; $4.6m 2025 cap
#73: WR/KR Jamal Agnew: 1 yr, $4.25m, $4.25m apy; $2.05 2025 cap

Tight Ends:
#41: TE Dalton Schultz: 3 yrs, $26.3m, $8.75m apy; $4.5m 2025 cap
#57: TE Hunter Henry: 2 yrs, $15.0m, $7.5m apy; $3.5m 2025 cap

Running Backs:
#28: RB Josh Jacobs: 3 yrs, $36.0m, $12.0m apy; $6.0m 2025 cap
#33: RB Saquon Barkley: 3 yrs, $31.5m, $10.5m apy; $4.2m 2025 cap
#34: RB Derrick Henry: 2 yrs, $20.0m, $10.0m apy; $5.0m 2025 cap
#56: RB Tony Pollard: 3 yrs, $22.5m, $7.50m apy; $3.5m 2025 cap
#81: RB Zack Moss: 2 yrs, $7.50m, $3.75m apy; $2.50m 2025 cap
#98: RB D'Onta Foreman: 1 yr, $2.75m; $2.75m cap hit
#102: 3rd down RB Antonio Gibson: 1 yr, $2.5m; $2.5m cap hit

Offensive Tackle:
#26: OT Tyron Smith: 2 yrs, $25.0m, $12.5m apy; $4.5m 2025 cap
#90 Swing Tackle Cornelius Lucas: 1 yr, $3.0m; $2.20 m 2025 cap
Edge Defender:
#9: Edge Danielle Hunter: 3 yrs, $67m, $22m apy; $9.0m 2025 cap
#21: Edge Bryce Huff: 4 yrs, $58m, $14.5m apy; $5.5m 2025 cap
#32: Edge Jadeveon Clowney: 1 yr, $10.5m, $10.5m apy; $3.1m 2025 cap
#37: Edge Mike Danna: 2 yrs, $19.0m, $9.5m apy; $4.9m 2025 cap
#48: Edge Josh Uche: 1 yr, $8.50m, $8.5m apy; $4.9m 2025 cap
#54: Edge Andrew Van Ginkel: 2 yrs, $15.0m, $7.5m apy; $3.2m 2025 cap
#61: Edge D.J. Wonnum: 2 yrs, $13.0m, $6.5m apy; $3.0m 2025 cap
Safety:
#23: SS Kyle Dugger: 3 yrs, $40.5m, $13.5m apy; $7.0m 2025 cap
#30: FS Xavier McKinney: 3yrs, $35m, $11.6m apy; $6.5m 2025 cap
#47: FS Geno Stone: 3 yrs, $25.5m, $8.5m apy; $4.0m 2025 cap

I posted the article primarily to show that first year cap is equal to about 1/3 to 1/2 of AAV.
===============
There are many more OT's, still nowhere enough for us. We need 3.

2024 NFL Free Agency Rankings: Offensive tackles | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

Tyron Smith is the top-ranked free-agent offensive tackle in PFF's 2024 NFL free agency rankings.

www.pff.com

 

[UGAPatsfan]

Man…I’d take Mckinney over Dugger straight up let alone at a better cap number.

 

[hornetfb85]

Man…I’d take Mckinney over Dugger straight up let alone at a better cap number.

I like McKinney as well. Add a #2 corner and a younger impact edge guy. Turn the defense up another notch.
Go after Tyron Smith/Jonah Williams, D. Schultz and Noah Brown (don’t see any of the top WR targets coming here, and Brown flashed potential). Possibly a #2 RB as well, this is the year to do it. Tons of options.
Draft whichever QB you want at 3. Draft an OT at 34 and WR at 68.

 

[Water Boy]

Wow. These projected salaries seem quite reasonable.

 

[Ivan]

Interesting list/projections from that article.

A few names and numbers that caught my eye (after disregarding those that are termed "likely to be franchised". Unfortunately that eliminates most of the quality WRs that the Patriots need. Even with that, you can mix and match a decent free agency haul with the cap money that the Pats have at their disposal.

The lack of offensive tackles available is disheartening. Obviously the team will need to use an early draft pick on the position, but it would be nice to bring some clarity to the position prior to that via free agency (some combination of Onwenu plus the two OTs below).

Quarterbacks:
#3: QB Baker Mayfield: 3yrs, $82.5m, $27.5m apy; $12.5m 2025 cap
#24: QB Ryan Tannehill: 1 yr, $13.5m, $13.5m apy; $4.0m 2025 cap
#79: QB Jameis Winston: 1 yr, $4.0m, $4.0m apy; $2.5m 2025 cap

Wide Receivers:
#5: WR Mike Evans: 3 yrs, $75.0m, $25.0m apy; $11.0m 2025 cap
#25: WR Gabe Davis: 3 yrs, $37.5m, $12.5m apy; $6.5m 2025 cap
#52: WR Darnell Mooney: 2 yrs, $16.0m, $8.0m apy; $4.6m 2025 cap
#73: WR/KR Jamal Agnew: 1 yr, $4.25m, $4.25m apy; $2.05 2025 cap

Tight Ends:
#41: TE Dalton Schultz: 3 yrs, $26.3m, $8.75m apy; $4.5m 2025 cap
#57: TE Hunter Henry: 2 yrs, $15.0m, $7.5m apy; $3.5m 2025 cap

Running Backs:
#28: RB Josh Jacobs: 3 yrs, $36.0m, $12.0m apy; $6.0m 2025 cap
#33: RB Saquon Barkley: 3 yrs, $31.5m, $10.5m apy; $4.2m 2025 cap
#34: RB Derrick Henry: 2 yrs, $20.0m, $10.0m apy; $5.0m 2025 cap
#56: RB Tony Pollard: 3 yrs, $22.5m, $7.50m apy; $3.5m 2025 cap
#81: RB Zack Moss: 2 yrs, $7.50m, $3.75m apy; $2.50m 2025 cap
#98: RB D'Onta Foreman: 1 yr, $2.75m; $2.75m cap hit
#102: 3rd down RB Antonio Gibson: 1 yr, $2.5m; $2.5m cap hit

Offensive Tackle:
#26: OT Tyron Smith: 2 yrs, $25.0m, $12.5m apy; $4.5m 2025 cap
#90 Swing Tackle Cornelius Lucas: 1 yr, $3.0m; $2.20 m 2025 cap
Edge Defender:
#9: Edge Danielle Hunter: 3 yrs, $67m, $22m apy; $9.0m 2025 cap
#21: Edge Bryce Huff: 4 yrs, $58m, $14.5m apy; $5.5m 2025 cap
#32: Edge Jadeveon Clowney: 1 yr, $10.5m, $10.5m apy; $3.1m 2025 cap
#37: Edge Mike Danna: 2 yrs, $19.0m, $9.5m apy; $4.9m 2025 cap
#48: Edge Josh Uche: 1 yr, $8.50m, $8.5m apy; $4.9m 2025 cap
#54: Edge Andrew Van Ginkel: 2 yrs, $15.0m, $7.5m apy; $3.2m 2025 cap
#61: Edge D.J. Wonnum: 2 yrs, $13.0m, $6.5m apy; $3.0m 2025 cap
Safety:
#23: SS Kyle Dugger: 3 yrs, $40.5m, $13.5m apy; $7.0m 2025 cap
#30: FS Xavier McKinney: 3yrs, $35m, $11.6m apy; $6.5m 2025 cap
#47: FS Geno Stone: 3 yrs, $25.5m, $8.5m apy; $4.0m 2025 cap

Thanks for the information.

 

[Ivan]

Wow. These projected salaries seem quite reasonable.

Agree completely.

 

[Ivan]

I would love to see them come away with Wilkins and Winfield.

 

[Scotty]

Yeah, now is the time to get a couple of good defensive players in FA

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Good info, just wish they had more #s on the OT’s. Id like to go after mckinnney and schultz if dugger and henry aren’t kept. Might even prefer them but waiting for everyone to hit fa is a bit risky.

Dont like any of those #s on wr/qb’s .

Could use an edge if uche doesn’t want to take a cheap one year prove it deal (NO thanks to 8.5m)

 

[50-yard-line]

All of the bolded look like great deals to me.

Tight Ends:
#41: TE Dalton Schultz: 3 yrs, $26.3m, $8.75m apy; $4.5m 2025 cap
#57: TE Hunter Henry: 2 yrs, $15.0m, $7.5m apy; $3.5m 2025 cap

Running Backs:
#28: RB Josh Jacobs: 3 yrs, $36.0m, $12.0m apy; $6.0m 2025 cap
#33: RB Saquon Barkley: 3 yrs, $31.5m, $10.5m apy; $4.2m 2025 cap
#34: RB Derrick Henry: 2 yrs, $20.0m, $10.0m apy; $5.0m 2025 cap
#56: RB Tony Pollard: 3 yrs, $22.5m, $7.50m apy; $3.5m 2025 cap
#81: RB Zack Moss: 2 yrs, $7.50m, $3.75m apy; $2.50m 2025 cap
#98: RB D'Onta Foreman: 1 yr, $2.75m; $2.75m cap hit
#102: 3rd down RB Antonio Gibson: 1 yr, $2.5m; $2.5m cap hit

Offensive Tackle:
#26: OT Tyron Smith: 2 yrs, $25.0m, $12.5m apy; $4.5m 2025 cap
#90 Swing Tackle Cornelius Lucas: 1 yr, $3.0m; $2.20 m 2025 cap

Edge Defender:
#54: Edge Andrew Van Ginkel: 2 yrs, $15.0m, $7.5m apy; $3.2m 2025 cap

Safety:
#23: SS Kyle Dugger: 3 yrs, $40.5m, $13.5m apy; $7.0m 2025 cap
#30: FS Xavier McKinney: 3yrs, $35m, $11.6m apy; $6.5m 2025 cap
#47: FS Geno Stone: 3 yrs, $25.5m, $8.5m apy; $4.0m 2025 cap

 

[BTTA]

I use this site to show the possible relationship between AAV's and first year cap hits.

I would expect the first year cap hit to be 1/3 to 1/2 of AAV. And this might be made lower with mor aggressive use of void years and other tools.

https://atozsports.com/nfl/nfl-free-agent-contract-projections-2024-top-105/

I would note that $7M of first year cap hit is projected be enough for almost all of the top 50 free agents, including 7 of the top 20.

As usual, very timely and useful mg.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

I like McKinney as well. Add a #2 corner and a younger impact edge guy. Turn the defense up another notch.
Go after Tyron Smith/Jonah Williams, D. Schultz and Noah Brown (don’t see any of the top WR targets coming here, and Brown flashed potential). Possibly a #2 RB as well, this is the year to do it. Tons of options.
Draft whichever QB you want at 3. Draft an OT at 34 and WR at 68.

Watching the combine, there are a lot of very good WR options throughout the draft. If the new staff proves even average at developing, should be some gems to be had.