NFL News Official 2025 NFL Free Agency Thread

[PatsFan2]

They were about the same last year.

No they weren't the Giants QB situation was putrid.

 

[KCSVEN]

What does "current starters/contributors" mean? There are 22 starters on a team, which means ~ 28 non-starters. Are you saying if you are a non-starter, you are a bust. I don't think that is what most people would call a bust with a third round pick. How did you define "contributor" and how many "contributors" did you include in say any given year?

How does your analysis factor in the salary of the 3rd round pick?

If a third round pick is not only a starter but a great player with huge surplus value, how does your analysis account for this surplus value.

What third party analyses are you referring to?

I reread/scimmed the article you attached "how current nfl teams were built" - I can't find any real reference to "3rd round picks are not that valuable....". Can you guide me to where it is?

Let me invert this -
My recollection is that very few 3rd round picks are cut in year one. Seems odd if they are "not that valuable".

There was a previous post, from awhile back I linked to with 20 years of analysis on success of picks. Probably a year ago maybe I posted the link.
I actually think it was 25% third round
50% first
33% second
25% third
12% 4th
6% 5th
3% 6th
1% 7th
But going off memory, if I get time will search for it

Each team had different starter numbers not 22, it’s listed in the link to the data set I posted

It’s about major contributors, it’s easy to sign guys as backups but if they are not playing meaningful minutes on offense and defense he can be replaced easily.
Bust might be wrong word, not useful or valuable maybe better but then again the other analysis concurred

 

[manxman2601]

Other free agents worth thinking on:

- LT Cam Robinson
- LT Tyron Smith
- WR Cooper Kupp
- WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- OG Teven Jenkins
- OG Will Fries
- DE Za’Darius Smith
- FS Jevon Holland
- FS Justin Reid

Levi Onwuzurike hasn't been signed yet has he?

 

[Ross12]

Levi Onwuzurike hasn't been signed yet has he?

Not that I know of - definitely lots of options, just threw some up here at needy spots that I could think of

 

[TommyD4207]

No they weren't the Giants QB situation was putrid.

Know who else is putrid?
Darius Slayton.

 

[JohnJH]

Levi Onwuzurike hasn't been signed yet has he?

Not at the moment. We should snag him!

 

[ViperGTS]

Another good thing about some of these signings (especially the Milton Williams deal) is it shows this team is serious about putting together a winning roster. The defense looks pretty good. You can start to pitch players on day 2 that you want to win, you just need a few more solid pieces, etc.

They are a WR1, LT away from being a playoff team imo. My guess is Strange is moving to Center this season. Which I think will work out just fine. Put Robinson at LG.

 

[JohnJH]

Both.

Can't afford both, let alone maintain some cap flexibility for this season and especially the next. I'd certainly take Brown. But I don't see that happening, although it would be very nice. And Aiyuk's knee gives me pause.

 

[TommyD4207]

No they weren't the Giants QB situation was putrid.

Do you want me to try to talk Chris Conley out of retirement?

 

[silentone]

There was a previous post, from awhile back I linked to with 20 years of analysis on success of picks. Probably a year ago maybe I posted the link.
I actually think it was 25% third round
50% first
33% second
25% third
12% 4th
6% 5th
3% 6th
1% 7th
But going off memory, if I get time will search for it

Each team had different starter numbers not 22, it’s listed in the link to the data set I posted

It’s about major contributors, it’s easy to sign guys as backups but if they are not playing meaningful minutes on offense and defense he can be replaced easily.
Bust might be wrong word, not useful or valuable maybe better but then again the other analysis concurred

Thanks KCSVEN -

If you're using a loose definition of "bust" and not considering salaries or surplus value created that would explain why we have such differing views on this.

Your conclusion(s) are different than the more recent draft value charts (at least the one I'm looking at) which show average 3rd round picks are worth quite a lot. ~ 75% of an average second round pick which I think is quite differnt than "are not that valuable".

Last word is your

 

[Ross12]

They are a WR1, LT away from being a playoff team imo. My guess is Strange is moving to Center this season. Which I think will work out just fine. Put Robinson at LG.

I think they will sign a new starting left guard like Jenkins, Fries or Becton. Strange at center and one of Brown/J.Andrews backing him up. IOL + RT would be solid. Just need to plug those two spots like you said, and probably also a free safety.

I’d say go for Will Fries, Justin Reid, Cam Robinson and Cooper Kupp. Kupp could be upgraded as a WR1 but it’s a solid starting place before the draft.

 

[PatsFan2]

Do you want me to try to talk Chris Conley out of retirement?

No thanks.

 

[maust]

I'm convinced

Thank heavens, I was concerned you were gonna jump ship along with Thunder and Sam.
Okay... well maybe 'concerned' is a bit strong... still, it's good to know we won't have to franchise tag you

 

[TommyD4207]

No thanks.

I actually can, he seems kinda set on it, but I can make a run at him.

 

[signbabybrady]

Thank heavens, I was concerned you were gonna jump ship along with Thunder and Sam.
Okay... well maybe 'concerned' is a bit strong... still, it's good to know we won't have to franchise tag you

You're too kind good sir. I thank you for your concern.

 

[signbabybrady]

Do you want me to try to talk Chris Conley out of retirement?

And Taylor Lewan

 

[BadMoFo]

If we really want a fullback.

 

[TheRainMaker]

If we really want a fullback.

Do it Vrabel!

 

[Love The Drake]

If we really want a fullback.

Yes please.

This is perfect.

 

[TommyD4207]

If we really want a fullback.

But we already have Sidy Sow...