Not running at the combine and bust: a correlation?

[FredFromDartmouth]

I was thinking that there must be a correlation between guys who do not run at the combine and future busts but I have no proof of this. How do you guys (and gals) feel about this?

The professional media draft guys have been trying to tell us for years that not running at the combine will not hurt a prospect's draft status. Maybe that is true but it is certainly a warning sign for me and maybe some teams if a prospect is a healthy but does not run.

The opposite is also interesting; guys who are injured but run anyway.

The reason I bring this up is that it shows a sharp contrast between A. J. Green and Julio Jones. Is this a warning sign about Green?

 

[stinkypete]

What does recent precedent have to say about this?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

It's not that big a deal in the long run, there are prospects who don't run at all before the draft who have been drafted and worked out - two recent examples are Crabtree and NE's own Tate. Don't let the speculation disract you from the game film and interviews.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

It's not that big a deal in the long run, there are prospects who don't run at all before the draft who have been drafted and worked out - two recent examples are Crabtree and NE's own Tate. Don't let the speculation disract you from the game film and interviews.

Wasn't Tate injured? There must be a ton of examples of guys who did not run and turned out to be busts. David Terrell...Peter Warwick...Charles Rogers...Troy Williamson...Bobby Carpenter....did these guys run? I sort of doubt it; isn't interesting that the big prima-donna WRs can get away without running but I suspect that the CB prospects cannot.

But on the other hand just because someone can run fast does not mean they will be a success. I suspect that Ted Ginn and Matt Jones ran.

 

[DaBruinz]

Wasn't Tate injured? There must be a ton of examples of guys who did not run and turned out to be busts. David Terrell...Peter Warwick...Charles Rogers...Troy Williamson...Bobby Carpenter....did these guys run? I sort of doubt it; isn't interesting that the big prima-donna WRs can get away without running but I suspect that the CB prospects cannot.

But on the other hand just because someone can run fast does not mean they will be a success. I suspect that Ted Ginn and Matt Jones ran.

On one hand, you are willing to accept that some players didn't run because of injuries, but then you immediately bash a player who was coming off an injury and chose not to run in Carpenter.

Tedd Ginn did not run at the combine because of a foot injury. I know that Matt Jones ran because it's what got him drafted in the 1st round.

Troy Williamson ran at his Combine as did David Terrell. Peter Warrick and Charles Rogers did not.

Can't begin to prove your theory if you can't get your facts correct.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I think we need to clarify the question. The title of the thread is about not running vs. becoming a bust. But the OP is discussing whether not running hurts a prospect's draft status.

So for the second question, I don't think it will hurt a prospect's draft status so long as they perform well at their pro day. For one thing, most prospects run unless they are injured. Injuries may have dropped their draft position though.

There's a very small sample size of players who were drafted in the top-3 rounds who didn't perform at the combine in 2007. The rest in the 2008 and 2009 draft at least ran the 40, though some skipped other drills.

But in terms of whether it could be used for longer-term projections, it's hard to say because there's such a small sample size.

This page outlines combine performances from 2007 onwards for the offensive skill positions and TEs.

The 2007 prospects who didn't run but were drafted in the top 3 rounds are:

QB
JaMarcus Russel
Brady Quinn

RB
Tony Hunt

WR
Ted Ginn Jr.
Dwayne Jarrett
Craig Davis
Steve Smith

Out of that list, only Smith has developed into a solid NFL player though there's still time for Ginn Jr. to break out.

The 2010 draft also had a few top picks who hadn't run, though the WRs were due to injury.

QB
Sam Bradford
Jimmy Clausen

WR
Dez Bryant * hamstring injury
Eric Decker * foot injury

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Before you jump all over me remember that I posted this as a question.

Another factor are the oily agents that some of these guys have; some urge their guys not to run.

Anyway I would think that it has to be a red flag if the guy choses not to run at the Combine. If they have a good pro day then maybe that compensates but not running at the Combine can mean a lot of things not all of which is bad but he better have a legit excuse.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Not jumping all over it, just clarifying the difference between impact on draft position vs. impact long term as a bust.

If we're talking draft position, I don't think it impacts them. Russell and Bradford both went #1 overall, while Quinn dropped a bit but still got taken in the 1st round. As for the receivers, I don't think any of their draft positions were hurt by it. They went more or less where people expected them to. Ginn Jr. actually went a lot higher than anticipated.

And I'd agree, it's a bit of a red flag. For QBs, not such a big deal but for other skill positions, I'd wonder why.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

And I'd agree, it's a bit of a red flag. For QBs, not such a big deal but for other skill positions, I'd wonder why.

Ya there was this certain QB from Michigan who looked simply awful running the forty in 2000. Looked as fast and graceful as a water buffalo in a rice paddy....