No Trade Mocks Are Very Unrealistic

[mgteich]

Sure, I could see one of the top quarterbacks falling to 10, or Jackson to 15. For me, this would require teams not to trade.

There is significant interest in all 5 of the top quarterbacks. And there are lots of teams with immediate needs and lots of others who have 35+ year old top quarterbacks.

I expect 3 to be drafted by at least 6 and another in the top 10 (with at least 2 trade ups).

And then at least a couple of the rest will feel the need to move up for Jackson.
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And yes, I agree that a poor team getting a franchise quarterback in the top 10 is about 50-50.

 

[patchick]

I agree with the thread title on general principle, but especially this year. You have an unusual number of teams seemingly putting their high picks up for auction, an unusual number of teams with lower picks looking for their future QB, and some key, high-value positions that are thin on the ground (e.g. LT). The first round shapes up to be pretty wild.

 

[Ring 6]

Sure, I could see one of the top quarterbacks falling to 10, or Jackson to 15. For me, this would require teams not to trade.

There is significant interest in all 5 of the top quarterbacks. And there are lots of teams with immediate needs and lots of others who have 35+ year old top quarterbacks.

I expect 3 to be drafted by at least 6 and another in the top 10 (with at least 2 trade ups).

And then at least a couple of the rest will feel the need to move up for Jackson.
===============
And yes, I agree that a poor team getting a franchise quarterback in the top 10 is about 50-50.

I’m curious about something. How do you know there is significant interest in all 5 qbs?
Sure there is need but that doesn’t mean the teams with needs have evaluated all 5 of these qbs as worthy of getting picked in the top 15 or trading up to get.

 

[maust]

I would certainly agree with the title of the thread, no trade mocks are unrealistic but projecting trades is problematic at best. That trades are going to happen is a given but for a prognosticator settling on a particular hypothetical trade entails the rest of the mock being predicated on it, a dicey proposition.

 

[mgteich]

I’m curious about something. How do you know there is significant interest in all 5 qbs?
Sure there is need but that doesn’t mean the teams with needs have evaluated all 5 of these qbs as worthy of getting picked in the top 15 or trading up to get.

OK, I'm not SURE that the sun is coming up tomorrow. We have what we have: lots and lots of opinion and lots and lots of analysis.

And yes, it is very possible that a QB is drafted 10 or even 20 spots lower than anticipated.

 

[patchick]

I’m curious about something. How do you know there is significant interest in all 5 qbs?
Sure there is need but that doesn’t mean the teams with needs have evaluated all 5 of these qbs as worthy of getting picked in the top 15 or trading up to get.

OK, suppose nobody technically "knows" anything about who will be picked when except the Cleveland Browns. (Come to think of it, being the Browns, even they don't know.) But this draft features five QBs who are all ranked in different orders by different close observers. I can find you respectable sources that have each one of the five in their #1 slot. That sets up to make it highly likely that some team -- it only takes one -- will consider a moderate trade up for any sliding QB worthwhile.

 

[Ring 6]

OK, I'm not SURE that the sun is coming up tomorrow. We have what we have: lots and lots of opinion and lots and lots of analysis.

And yes, it is very possible that a QB is drafted 10 or even 20 spots lower than anticipated.

Opinion and analysis from who? Not the teams that are making the decisions.

 

[Ring 6]

OK, suppose nobody technically "knows" anything about who will be picked when except the Cleveland Browns. (Come to think of it, being the Browns, even they don't know.) But this draft features five QBs who are all ranked in different orders by different close observers. I can find you respectable sources that have each one of the five in their #1 slot. That sets up to make it highly likely that some team -- it only takes one -- will consider a moderate trade up for any sliding QB worthwhile.

My point is that is speculation by observers trying to predict the decisions other people will make.

Aaron Rodgers fell to 21 when a lot of teams needed qbs and the experts had him going in the top few.
Geno Smith was rumored as a potential 1 overall and went in the second. Some had Ryan Nasib ( the guy from Syracuse that the giants took in the 4th it 5th) going in round 1.

There is never going to be accuracy in some people guessing at how other people view players. And I’m pretty sure that most teams looking for qbs aren’t considering these guys to be 5 equal players all worth a top 15 pick. Some I’m sure have at least one rated much lower for whatever reason.

 

[mgteich]

Opinion and analysis from who? Not the teams that are making the decisions.

of course not
If we were only dealing with official team information, then we wouldn't have much discussion here, other than after- the-fact analysis of why we think a team picked someone. Most of us are here to SPECULATE based on what we have.

 

[patfanken]

I read somewhere that over the last few years the average of these professional draft mockers' correct picks was about 4.2 in the first round, and the guys who hit it the best got 7 or 8 right. And I would guess that most of the few picks they got right came in the top 10. That's out of 32 picks!

So the lesson here is that no one has a f*cking clue as to what will happen tonight. That is even more true for the Patriots and other teams who are drafting in the 20's and 30's. About the only time I can recall when the Pats pick came up and you KNEW who they would take was when Vince Wilfork unexpectantly dropped to them. But even that pick was a surprise in that they never expected him to be there.

About the only thing I feel confident to predict is that the Pats will trade down with one of their first-round picks to fill in at least one of those 4th and 5th round gaps. After that your guess is as good as mine, or rather as bad as mine.

 

[Ring 6]

of course not
If we were only dealing with official team information, then we wouldn't have much discussion here, other than after- the-fact analysis of why we think a team picked someone. Most of us are here to SPECULATE based on what we have.

I guess I’m saying there is a difference between speculating and WE KNOW there is significant interest.
Probably picking nits but just a pet peeve of mine.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I read somewhere that over the last few years the average of these professional draft mockers' correct picks was about 4.2 in the first round, and the guys who hit it the best got 7 or 8 right. And I would guess that most of the few picks they got right came in the top 10. That's out of 32 picks!

While that's technically true, that number is team-player matches. Many of the same mocks predicted 27 or 28 of the players who would go in the 1st, and just missed the team by a few slots, or didn't account for trades (as the OP mentions). So, I think analysts are generally quite good at figuring out the relative market value of most players, but it's extremely difficult to predict what 32 independent actors will do in any given situation. Just to add some context to the numbers.

 

[IllegalContact]

I have a big board
It is a beautiful incredible big board like you've never seen
It's the biggest board
Nobody has a bigger board than me

 

[primetime]

I have a big board
It is a beautiful incredible big board like you've never seen
It's the biggest board
Nobody has a bigger board than me

Thanks for ignoring your wife and kids for the last 9 months to bring us your 10,000 prospect big board

 

[manxman2601]

I have a big board
It is a beautiful incredible big board like you've never seen
It's the biggest board
Nobody has a bigger board than me

Sounds like a man suffering from big board envy.

 

[skinnydog]

I read somewhere that over the last few years the average of these professional draft mockers' correct picks was about 4.2 in the first round, and the guys who hit it the best got 7 or 8 right. And I would guess that most of the few picks they got right came in the top 10. That's out of 32 picks!

So the lesson here is that no one has a f*cking clue as to what will happen tonight. That is even more true for the Patriots and other teams who are drafting in the 20's and 30's. About the only time I can recall when the Pats pick came up and you KNEW who they would take was when Vince Wilfork unexpectantly dropped to them. But even that pick was a surprise in that they never expected him to be there.

About the only thing I feel confident to predict is that the Pats will trade down with one of their first-round picks to fill in at least one of those 4th and 5th round gaps. After that your guess is as good as mine, or rather as bad as mine.

Generally, I only find mock drafts interesting in the sense of where players are slotted to be picked rather than who will actually pick them. For example which DBs are likely to go somewhere in the top 10 or 10-20 -32 etc. Anything more precise is like picking the winning Powerball ticket

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Sounds like a man suffering from big board envy.

He has tiny, tiny hands, too.

 

[patfanken]

Generally, I only find mock drafts interesting in the sense of where players are slotted to be picked rather than who will actually pick them. For example which DBs are likely to go somewhere in the top 10 or 10-20 -32 etc. Anything more precise is like picking the winning Powerball ticket

exactly! I would guess the odds of picking the first round of the NFL draft is about the same as picking the full NCAA basketball bracket. In fact, I would guess its probably easier to pick all those games correctly, than try and deal with all the permutations of an NFL first round draft.

 

[patfanken]

He has tiny, tiny hands, too.

Be VERY careful of that kind of "allegation. In some parts of Washington DC, that will get you sued. You certainly don't want to get on the wrong side of Michael Cohen.

 

[IllegalContact]

Sounds like a man suffering from big board envy.

This is my big dream and I’m sticking to it

23 -DT daron Payne
31 - LB rashaan Evans
43 - LB Lorenzo carter
63 - OT Martinas Rankin
95 - DT/DE PJ Hall
6a - WR Cedrick Wilson
6b - TE Tyler Conklin
6c - OG Skyler Phillips