The first thing I thought when I saw the thread title was 'have there even been more than three or four 20-point spreads in twenty years'?
As for those games in 2007, Vegas was about three or four weeks behind what was going on with the Pats all year long. They feared moving the line beyond their self-imposed regular season limit of 17 points for far too long, and when they finally did opponents were catching up with the Pats offense. So I would throw those 2007 games out of the analysis because that was a unique situation.
Looking beyond that this line is much more of a statement about how bad the Colts are then how prolific the Pats are - which is a departure from most of those other historical lines.
The Colts started out the season by losing, but losing close; after getting blown out by Houston in week one the next five losses were by an average of only 6.4 points. But after the epic loss to New Orleans they have lost by 17, 24, 14 and 8 with three of those games at home, and at least three against teams that won't make the playoffs.
The Colts have lost by an average of 11 points at home the last two weeks to a pair of three-win teams. Home field advantage is worth three points, which in essence is a six-point swing going from home to on the road. They've scored more than ten points just once in the last five weeks, and that was against a Carolina defense that had just been torched for 49 points and ranks 31st in points allowed.
The team ranked 32nd? Yep, the Indianapolis Colts.
Obviously anything can happen on any given Sunday. All I am saying is that based on how each of these two teams has been playing the last few weeks, the point spread should not be a surprise - and that what happened in 2007 has nothing to do with what the most likely outcome of this game will be.
