NFC Coach: WR position "is becoming a plug-in position"

[Digger44]

you'd think with our history we have to have 6 CBs. We carried 6 last year and I remember everyone on the board saying how stocked at CB we were.

Samuel, Poole, Starks, Gay, Chad Scott and Hobbs

ya but for a solid portion of the season cb after cb were tried as ss. it even seemed as if we didnt even have a ss postion a few times with a cb floating in the area. i don't see having 6 cb's on the squad. let's hope rodney is +90-100% so the ss is stronger. hawkins did a great job, but he isnt the answer.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

If we can improve the completion % to the TE by going 2 TE, the WR position will be de-emphasized.

In 2003 when Brady threw more to his TEs, Branch had 57 catches, Givens had 34, Troy Brown had 40, and Bethel had 16.

In 2005, when Brady threw less to his TEs, Branch had 78, Givens had 59, Troy Brown had 39, and Tim Dwight had 19.

Bottomline -- BB could build the roster to look more like the 2003 team than the 2005 team. The running game in 2003 was so-so, A. Smith had a 3.5 AVG for 642 yards. Faulk had a 3.6 AVG for 638 yards.

 

[Mike the Brit]

I don't agree with the premise of the thread. Sure, the scheme can get you open and the QB can make the throw, but you still have to catch the ball and hold on to it with all that's going on

Not many can do that consistently when it really matters. David Givens could (when healthy) and we will miss him .

 

[patpatriot]

Very interesting!

Great quality post #80. I feel a lot better about the WR conundrum now that it appears to not be a conundrum. As far as getting another quality TE, the kid from Colorado Klopenwhatever is a really fine TE (from what I could tell in the Senior Bowl). He will definately be there at our 2nd pick and maybe even at our first third or we have the ammo to move up a scootch and grab him. The other thing I wonder about is how much more would we throw to the TEs if one of them didn't have to stay in to help out in pass blocking?

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

I don't agree with the premise of the thread. Sure, the scheme can get you open and the QB can make the throw, but you still have to catch the ball and hold on to it with all that's going on

Not many can do that consistently when it really matters. David Givens could (when healthy) and we will miss him .

I agree we'll miss David Givens, but I'm more talking about the TE position contributing to more of Brady's completed passess (like from 15% last year up to 21% in 2003).

 

[Mike the Brit]

I agree we'll miss David Givens, but I'm more talking about the TE position contributing to more of Brady's completed passess (like from 15% last year up to 21% in 2003).

That's a very good point.

I'm a massive Grahambo fan -- I think that he may be the most underrated Pat. I haven't watched the tapes as closely as some, but the message is pretty obvious: have Graham stay in to block and the line holds up fairly well, although his passing numbers suffer. Take Graham out and there are real protection issues. If the line manages to develop over last year, perhaps he and Watson can be freed up to do some real damage.

But, that said, we still need more wide receivers. Part of the point of the Pats' offence is flexibility -- it can't be just two tight ends time after time. Multiple WRs have to be part of it too.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Right now it looks like Branch and Caldwell, with Troy Brown and the rookies we'll draft in reserve.

With Moulds gone, the only real marquee WR is trading for J. Walker. I'm thinking it could be Caldwell that we will go with at #2, with a 2 TE set on 1st and 2nd down, and multiple WR on 3rd.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I don't see the Pats as needing another stud TE, but developing one more blocking tight end would not be the world's worst idea. Having three tight ends, each capable of scoring or racking up 50-100 yards if needed was a bit of a luxury. Only one is "the guy" in a given game (or rarely, 2) - to me, it would seem silly to get too interested in upgrading that "3 tight end threat" aspect of the roster, without addressing a greater need at wideout. (Grahambo and Watson can handle the pass catching just fine, and the primarily blocking tight ends aren't the ones at the top of the draft. The third guy needs to be able to be a receiver in a pinch to preserve the threat, just not as bread and butter in a given game.)

That said, "need" may play into value, but is not in itself the Pats draft philosophy. If the guy is clearly the best player, the Pats (sigh) could pick up another pass-catching athletic freak tight end high in the draft.

5 1/2 months til kickoff! Get PSYCHED!

PFnV

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

I agree that our TE did stay in to block.

Incidentally, what was our OL in 2003 (I can't find a site that shows it). If I remember correctly, it was Light, Andruzzi, Koppen, Woody, Ashworth.

If Brady could complete his throws to his TE at a 21% clip with that OL protecting him, I don't see how he couldn't when we get Light and Koppen back.

Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur

---------------------------------------

Also, I noticed the playcalling seemed to consist of a lot of deep passess in 2005. I'm wonderin' if Josh McDaniels in his playcalling countered the blitz differently than Weiss did. That could affect the TE production. For example, Weiss could do more screens and quick throws to the TE, whereas, Josh could have kept the TE in to block, and thrown deeper. Any thoughts?

 

[shakadave]

After all, the defense didn't really care about Andre Davis when he was out there, and in his few reps, he got 9 catches, 190 yards, 21.1 yard AVG and a TD.

Great thread! But I would add, to get Davis his 9 catches we had to throw another 25 incomplete bombs his way. I'll bet he was good for only 7 yards per attempt thrown his way.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Great thread!

Thanks. Statistics can be fun sometimes.

 

[patsfan13]

I found some more interesting stats.

In 2003, Brady completed 147 of his 317 completions to his 4 WR, Branch, Givens, Troy Brown and Bethel Johnson. That's 46% of his completions.

In 2005, Brady completed 195 of his 347 completions to his 4 WRs, Branch, Givens, Troy Brown and Tim Dwight. That's 58 % of his completions.

In 2003, Brady completed 66 of his 317 passess to his TEs, Fauria and Graham. That's 21%.

In 2005, Brady completed 53 of his 347 passess to his TEs, Watson and Graham and Fauria. That's a measly 15% of his passess. Especially considering the fact that the TEs in 2005 had a much bigger AVG per catch in 2005 than in 2003 (which could be attributed to the blossoming of Watson and Graham).

Anybody got any thoughts?

I say we go with a 2 TE formation and TE productions goes up to 2003 levels, if not more.

And please, don't call me a stathead.(just kidding) LOL

A big factor last year was the injuries to the OL. Thise injuries necessitated using the TE's more for blocking and reduced their effectiviness as receivers.

IMO the OL will be much better this year, of course barring another injury blood bath. Kaczur surpassed my expectations with his play at LT, and could be the best RT we've seen here in awhile. Reports seen to indicate Light will be ready to go, Hopefully Koppen will be fully recovered, NEal is back in the fold, and Mankins will be a beast at LG this year.

When the OL is strong (with Light need just a chip on the speed rushers) then the TE's are freed up to go into thier routes.

This O allows the D to choose their poison and Brady distributes the ball to the right spot.

I am hopeful that Bam C will become the "next Troy", his willingmess to play D and St's will play well with BB.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Before we get too excited about TE production replacing WR production, we need to think about who the opposition fears the most - Tom Brady.

1. What is the most effective way counter Brady?
- a. drop 8 men in coverage.
- b. try to pressure him with the blitz.
- c. beat up his receivers to disrupt timing.

2. Based on your answer to 1, what effect does that have on his full receiving corps of WRs, TEs, and RBs?
- a. none.
- b. RBs will need to stay in more.
- c. TEs will need to stay in more.
- d. b and c.

3. Based on your answer to 1, how does the projected starting offensive line (per Miguel's roster page) measure up to the challenge?
- a. Light and Koppen returning makes them impregnable.
- b. Light and Mankins still haven't jelled after 2 full games together, and Neal and Kaczur still haven't jelled after a few series together.
- c. five men blocking 6 or more is unreasonable even if they are All-Pros.

Extra credit for spelling your name correctly.

 

[patsfan13]

Before we get too excited about TE production replacing WR production, we need to think about who the opposition fears the most - Tom Brady.

1. What is the most effective way counter Brady?
- a. drop 8 men in coverage.
- b. try to pressure him with the blitz.
- c. beat up his receivers to disrupt timing.

Depends on the oppositions personell, the Colts and Steelers do different stuff than the Dolfins for example, The Fins had the best success with their excellent CB's and ability to generate pressure without a lot of blitz's (I wish J Taylor could have been a Pat)

2. Based on your answer to 1, what effect does that have on his full receiving corps of WRs, TEs, and RBs?
- a. none.
- b. RBs will need to stay in more.
- c. TEs will need to stay in more.
- d. b and c.

3. Based on your answer to 1, how does the projected starting offensive line (per Miguel's roster page) measure up to the challenge?
- a. Light and Koppen returning makes them impregnable.
- b. Light and Mankins still haven't jelled after 2 full games together, and Neal and Kaczur still haven't jelled after a few series together.
- c. five men blocking 6 or more is unreasonable even if they are All-Pros.

Extra credit for spelling your name correctly.

The OL IMO will be the most capable of the BB era. We shouldn't be in trouble IF TB makes the correct reads and people do their job picking up the blitz.

The backs are a big question here, if there is an effective running game that limits the D pinning back their ears and going after TB.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Also BB fan, haven't you noticed how all the WR seem to be #2 and #3 types. There seem to be a lot of possession WR in the draft, which means you don't have to spend a 2nd on a possession WR, when you can get one in the 3rd or even 4th.

In the 2nd, I'm thinking depth at CB, OT and maybe a TE.

Excellent observation and we have 4 picks in the third and fourth rounds. I want Mike Hass, a slow guy just like Fred Biletnikoff...

 

[AzPatsFan]

It's a great year to need LB. Greenway and Lawson seem to be trending down, I am expecting one of them plus Carpenter to be there at #21. Maybe all three although that would be unexpected.

We no longer have McGinest, Brown and Chatham from last year and will likely add Claridge. That leaves openings for 2 LB and possibly a third if a guy like Claridge, TBC or Beisel is beaten out. This would be a great year to get a first round OLB and a 3rd or so round LB - all of a sudden we won't have a lot of age there.

Don'tforget to add TJ left on the eve of camp and they chose not to let Phifer go to the Big Ranch in the Sky... That's really five guys gone inone season.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Well, my answer to question one would "B." Blitz Brady. And I would stop it by throwing quick pass to the TE and the WR. As well as screen the defense to death. I don't like the strategy of keeping the TE in to block and throw deep. I prefer the move the chains offense like we did against the Raiders in the Snow Bowl. Those little tiny dinks and dunks.

As far as question 3, my answer would be that Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal and Kaczur are better than what we have had in previous years, and if we can get a really good backup swing OT in the draft, we are doing good.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

It's quite amazing that this thread started about WR, and ended up being about OL, specifically OT. OT are important. Really important. If a team loses two WR, they are not in a great position, but if they lose their 2 starting tackles, things are not looking good.

No matter how you cut it, in 2003 Brady had 46% of his completions go to WR. In 2005, it was 58%. I'm willing to bet that if we go into the season with Branch, Caldwell, Brown, Rookie, Rookie, Bam Childress that that % goes down, and we see Brady throw to more RB and TE this year.

Also a better running attack means more playaction, and a more balanced attack.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well, my answer to question one would "B." Blitz Brady. And I would stop it by throwing quick pass to the TE and the WR. As well as screen the defense to death. I don't like the strategy of keeping the TE in to block and throw deep. I prefer the move the chains offense like we did against the Raiders in the Snow Bowl. Those little tiny dinks and dunks.

As far as question 3, my answer would be that Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal and Kaczur are better than what we have had in previous years, and if we can get a really good backup swing OT in the draft, we are doing good.

Yes, the answer teams without the old Miami secondary use is to blitz him, because hitting him enough gets him rattled like any other QB.

There were any number of exotic blitzs this past season to create an overload. A healthier O-line will help, but you will still need TEs and RBs reading the blitz with Tommy and staying home to keep him alive.

Hot reads are great, but for whatever reason, they weren't as effective in 05 as years past. Some I attribute to Tommy telegraphing tendencies in his check offs, some may come from McDaniels being more conservative in his first year as OC.

Bottom line, it all starts with the OL and ends with the blitz read and response, don't count your TE receptions until they're caught.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The OL IMO will be the most capable of the BB era. We shouldn't be in trouble IF TB makes the correct reads and people do their job picking up the blitz. Bingo, picking up the blitz, which means TE and RBs will be involved in pass protection.

The backs are a big question here, if there is an effective running game that limits the D pinning back their ears and going after TB.

The Miami secondary is under new ownership, see y'all in church!

The team concept involved in a balanced run/pass approach is the ideal, and this O-line may be pretty darn good. But, 6 on 5 is still an edge for the defense in blocking and teams will try to create that mismatch after they saw how Tommy faired getting beaten up as much as he did last year.

Until we see how effective Tommy's new WR corps are at getting open without the TEs help, those TEs should be expected to be blitz protectors first and receivers second. Caldwell is an unknown, as is Bam or even Old man Brown. Branch without Givens was, to my eye, less effective than Givens without Branch. Deion is the better receiver one-on-one, but when teams can collapse on him, Tommy needs more than Troy, who wasn't enough of a threat last year to free up Deion.