My Hopes For Tomorrow (before 4)

[ashley]

With the way we work in FA, Id be thrilled if we get the news that Branch is coming back, we restructured Amendola and are having open dialogue with our key FA. I'd be surprised if we made a big splash, just not our way. Let the Jacksonville's do that and continue to have 6 wins a year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Ummmmmmmmm what?

File under just making sh.t up. Hightower skips a victory parade and suddenly he doesn't want to play here.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

With the way we work in FA, Id be thrilled if we get the news that Branch is coming back, we restructured Amendola and are having open dialogue with our key FA. I'd be surprised if we made a big splash, just not our way. Let the Jacksonville's do that and continue to have 6 wins a year.

Jax is on the upswing I think.

 

[Jimke]

At 4 P.M. Jonathan Kraft will be on the radio saying how hard they negotiated with
all the players and how they all rejected very fair offers.

 

[Bruins29]

At 4 P.M. Jonathan Kraft will be on the radio saying how hard they negotiated with
all the players and how they all rejected very fair offers.

Stop whining you ****y

 

[Huckleberry1]

At 4 P.M. Jonathan Kraft will be on the radio saying how hard they negotiated with
all the players and how they all rejected very fair offers.

And another year will be squandered by Bill Belichick. When are the Krafts going to pull the plug on this sh.tty coach and front office? All Patriot fans want is a chance to win and Belichick just keeps killing our hopes and dreams. They haven't won a Super Bowl in weeks and I JUST CANT STAND IT ANYMORE.

 

[maineman209]

I'm well aware that this goes against conventional wisdom, but ...

Most of all, I really want to see Ryan re-signed ASAP. Pretty much whatever it takes.

The Pats seem very likely to retain Butler for 2017, one way or another. However, (IMHO) there really aren't any adequate FA replacements out there for Ryan (for significantly less money) and even a high round rookie draftee would seem unlikely to perform as well in 2017 as Ryan would.

With the cap space that the Pats have, I just don't see why they'd need to break up what I think has been among the most cohesive and effective secondaries they've had in the BB Era. Paying the two youngest guys in this group to stick around for 4-5 more years just seems like an appropriate use of cap resources to me.

Harmon, I have mixed feelings about, though. He's been good, but he wasn't a "relief man" for either McCourty or Chung, both of whom went the full nine innings, and then some, for every game in 2016. There may well be an adequate replacement for Harmon's snaps available in FA, and it seems to me the Pats need to be drafting/grooming potential replacements for McCourty and Chung soon anyway. Both will turn 30 during Camp, and I'm not envisioning Harmon stepping up into either starting role, at this point.

Branch for a couple more years would be a close second to Ryan, for me. He's really helped keep the LBs clean.

Sheard would be good to keep for 2-3 more seasons, IF he comes back for between $7.5M-$8.0M APY (Gholston's new deal seems like a fair comp to me). I'm kinda doubtful that Sheard's replacement would be a high-end edge rusher. More likely a cheap, elderly veteran (or two) as a stopgap and a tutor for a couple draftees that the Pats will need whether Sheard stays or not. OTOH, the Pats could also (maybe) pick up a younger FA edge player who's been underused because he's solid in run-D but not much of a rusher.

I would very much prefer to keep Hightower, but - out of all the "big" in-house UFAs - it seems to me that his loss, big as it would be, might also be the easiest to make up for in FA and/or the draft.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Would everyone please stop responding to Marqui. He is a troll.


Stop whining you ****y

That was jimke

 

[Huckleberry1]

I'm well aware that this goes against conventional wisdom, but ...

Most of all, I really want to see Ryan re-signed ASAP. Pretty much whatever it takes.

The Pats seem very likely to retain Butler for 2017, one way or another. However, (IMHO) there really aren't any adequate FA replacements out there for Ryan (for significantly less money) and even a high round rookie draftee would seem unlikely to perform as well in 2017 as Ryan would.

With the cap space that the Pats have, I just don't see why they'd need to break up what I think has been among the most cohesive and effective secondaries they've had in the BB Era. Paying the two youngest guys in this group to stick around for 4-5 more years just seems like an appropriate use of cap resources to me.

Harmon, I have mixed feelings about, though. He's been good, but he wasn't a "relief man" for either McCourty or Chung, both of whom went the full nine innings, and then some, for every game in 2016. There may well be an adequate replacement for Harmon's snaps available in FA, and it seems to me the Pats need to be drafting/grooming potential replacements for McCourty and Chung soon anyway. Both will turn 30 during Camp, and I'm not envisioning Harmon stepping up into either starting role, at this point.

Branch for a couple more years would be a close second to Ryan, for me. He's really helped keep the LBs clean.

Sheard would be good to keep for 2-3 more seasons, IF he comes back for between $7.5M-$8.0M APY (Gholston's new deal seems like a fair comp to me). I'm kinda doubtful that Sheard's replacement would be a high-end edge rusher. More likely a cheap, elderly veteran (or two) as a stopgap and a tutor for a couple draftees that the Pats will need whether Sheard stays or not. OTOH, the Pats could also (maybe) pick up a younger FA edge player who's been underused because he's solid in run-D but not much of a rusher.

I would very much prefer to keep Hightower, but - out of all the "big" in-house UFAs - it seems to me that his loss, big as it would be, might also be the easiest to make up for in FA and/or the draft.

I don't think it's possible for me to disagree with a post more.

 

[maineman209]

I don't think it's possible for me to disagree with a post more.

Well, with Gilmore apparently signing at probably $12.5M APY (or more), it seems perfectly clear that the Pats didn't value Ryan as highly as I did, and/or Ryan has been (or is likely to be) offered significantly more.

IIRC, Gilmore has been used mostly at RCB in Buffalo. When not playing slot, Ryan has mostly been on the right side. I'm not sure how much Gilmore has been used to cover the slot, but he certainly may have the agility for it (3.94 shuttle, 6.61 3-cone at the 2012 Combine). Interestingly, Rowe's agility numbers from 2014 are nearly identical. Ryan's weren't all that far off, either. Butler's testing numbers are actually the worst in the entire secondary, which only goes to prove that the ability to get the job done often supersedes the numbers.

It seems reasonable to think that Gilmore's actual contract numbers, when revealed, may help in estimating an extension for Butler.

This could also have a knock-on effect on a new contract for Hightower.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Well, with Gilmore apparently signing at probably $12.5M APY (or more), it seems perfectly clear that the Pats didn't value Ryan as highly as I did, and/or Ryan has been (or is likely to be) offered significantly more.

IIRC, Gilmore has been used mostly at RCB in Buffalo. When not playing slot, Ryan has mostly been on the right side. I'm not sure how much Gilmore has been used to cover the slot, but he certainly may have the agility for it (3.94 shuttle, 6.61 3-cone at the 2012 Combine). Interestingly, Rowe's agility numbers from 2014 are nearly identical. Ryan's weren't all that far off, either. Butler's testing numbers are actually the worst in the entire secondary, which only goes to prove that the ability to get the job done often supersedes the numbers.

It seems reasonable to think that Gilmore's actual contract numbers, when revealed, may help in estimating an extension for Butler.

This could also have a knock-on effect on a new contract for Hightower.

Where I really disagreed was on replacing Hightower and paying a part time player (Sheard) 8 million. The Gilmore move caught me by surprise but Belichick is a Crafty SOB and the moves he is making are fascinating,

 

[patriot1136]

Hightower and Branch are must re-signs if you ask me so I hope it works out. I would also really like Harmon back, I think he has quite the niche role here and we need to keep him.

 

[maineman209]

Where I really disagreed was on replacing Hightower and paying a part time player (Sheard) 8 million. The Gilmore move caught me by surprise but Belichick is a Crafty SOB and the moves he is making are fascinating,

Yeah, I wouldn't really want to have to try to replace Hightower. All I was really saying is that there seem to be more options in FA and the draft for immediately recouping a decent part of what we'd lose with HT than there seemed to be for replacing Ryan.

Also, the Gilmore deal kinda proves what I've been thinking for awhile - that it would cost the Pats pretty close to the same money to replace Ryan (or Butler) with an equivalent FA as it would to to simply pay him in the first place. The flipside is that, although there really doesn't seem to be any Hightower-equivalent available in FA at any price, there may be some 70%HT guys out there for relatively cheap who could get us by in the mix with the other guys who are already on the roster and a draftee or two.

WRT Sheard, ALL the edge-guys were "part-timers"/rotational players in 2016. In terms of defensive snaps per game-active ...

Long = 42.3
Sheard = 38.6
Nink = 38.5
Flowers = 35.2

These proportions changed over the course of the season and through the playoffs, but still.

Maximum average defensive snaps per game would have been about 65 (McCourty was 63.9; Chung was 63.0).

So, Gholston's snap counts and production were about the same as Sheard's, and he just got $7.4M APY for five years, so I was simply using that as my baseline for retaining Sheard. There aren't really any Sheard-equivalents available in FA who won't cost significantly more. So, that leaves past-their-prime vets who might be signed relatively cheap. Now that the Iggles have cut Barwin (31 in October), that might be the way to go instead of paying Sheard.

 

[maineman209]

Hightower and Branch are must re-signs if you ask me so I hope it works out. I would also really like Harmon back, I think he has quite the niche role here and we need to keep him.

Barry Church is reportedly signing with the Jags today for about $6.5M APY. That seems like it could be a baseline for retaining Harmon.

 

[Jimke]

With the way we work in FA, Id be thrilled if we get the news that Branch is coming back, we restructured Amendola and are having open dialogue with our key FA. I'd be surprised if we made a big splash, just not our way. Let the Jacksonville's do that and continue to have 6 wins a year.

Looks like a little more going on than we figured.

 

[ashley]

Looks like a little more going on than we figured.

lol, definitely agree Jimke. I'm not complaining though

 

[captain stone]

My hope is to have King and Branch under contract…Bolden is also someone who might be signed before the deadline.

If by King you mean Brandon King, I could not care less if he is signed today, next week, next month, or (preferably) never. The same goes for Brandon Bolden too.

 

[AzPatsFan]

And another year will be squandered by Bill Belichick. When are the Krafts going to pull the plug on this sh.tty coach and front office? All Patriot fans want is a chance to win and Belichick just keeps killing our hopes and dreams. They haven't won a Super Bowl in weeks and I JUST CANT STAND IT ANYMORE.

Very Humorous !!!! Any reason its in a Stone initiated thread?

 

[zoostation]

Ugh no on Blount. With all due respect we can absolutely upgrade over him.

The Patriots can absolutely upgrade at every position but QB. Having said that LG is a bruising runner who wears down defenses.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

We might have to wait days before hightower signs anywhere.