Content Post My Approach To Early Free Agency - Is It That Different?

[mgteich]

1) I don't focus on the list of top free agents available. First, they end up being franchised. Also, the main reason that most are available is that they couldn't get enough money from their former team; they want more money.

2) I don't focus on potential trades. We have a poster that specializes in that rather well. For the most part, I allow myself to be surprised by any trades. I understand that Bill is always looking for trades that will upgrade the team, and at any position.

3) My primary focus is on our own free agents, and how we can improve the team by keeping them or replacing them.

4) For me, free agency (and the draft) is about improving from last year. That is a given since we changed coaches. If we have the same quality of players, I would expect 2-3 more wins.
=============
SOME THOUGHTS
A) WIDE RECEIVER
This is the hardest issue. Meyers and Agholor got lots and lots of reps last year. Sure, we hope that Thornton will improve, perhaps with more than his 50% of reps from last year. Perhaps, Bourne and Parker will have more production under new leadership.

However, we need at least one Meyers level wide receiver. Also, I'm sure that others will be brought in for depth. I suspect that Meyers will be paid by someone else. There isn't much out there. Belichick will be looking to acquire a wide receiver through trade. This could happen in a month, during the draft or in July or August.

My bottom line is that the receiving game will be much improved if we were to re-sign Meyers, given the coaching changes. We don't NEED a top WR.

B) RUNNING BACK
This is not an issue for those who simply plug in 2nd year players who have shown little and expect them to be Harris and White. Neither rookie saw much action.
I expect that Belichick will consider that Harris needs to re-signed or replaced. I'm fine with expecting ONE of Strong and Devin Harris to be a contributor. Expecting both to be automatic contributors seems wrong. After all, we are still waiting for Taylor to contribute.

C) DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD
McCourty will likely retire. Jones, Peppers and Williams are free agents. Bryant is an RFA.

JONES would be my #1 priority in free agency. He is worth more to us than to other teams. We should pay him. Ditto for PEPPERS, obviously for much less money. Both players very much want to come back. BRYANT isn't a favorite here. However, he is an OK #5 or #6 CB, and is likely to come back. The open question whether he will be tendered and how high.

D) DEFENSIVE FRONT SIX
Free agents include EKUALE, DAVIS, WILSON and MCMILLAN. I expect us to re-sign one of the DL's and one of the LB's. I'm fine with whatever choices are made. Obviously, Belichick could fill the positions from outside. However, all of these players are good enough to want them for camp.

E) SPECIAL TEAMS
These decisions could wait or be done this week. We will make decision at P, K, and LS. Also, Davis might be back, although that could wait a couple of months.

F) FINALLY, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM - THE OL
E1) I expect Hines, Steuber and Russey to compete for positions in camp. I wouldn't be surprised if all make the 53, or if none make it.
E2) As of now, we 4 starters under contract, plus McDermott (starting RT for now) plus RFA CAJUSTE if we bring him back.
E3) For those with great optimism (making believe that Dante were still coaching), that's 9 and we need to draft an OT in the first or second round, and in the 6th, and we'll be all set.
E4) For me, this is by far the biggest question mark for 2023.

SUMMARY
We need to re-sign or replace
Meyers
Agholor
Harris
Wynn
Cajuste
Ferentz
Jones
Peppers
McCourty
Bryant
Wilson/McMillan
Ekuale/Davis
Cardona
[13 seems like a "normal" sized list, with 4 key positions of need: WR, OT, CB and S.

 

[goheels22002]

1) I don't focus on the list of top free agents available. First, they end up being franchised. Also, the main reason that most are available is that they couldn't get enough money from their former team; they want more money.

2) I don't focus on potential trades. We have a poster that specializes in that rather well. For the most part, I allow myself to be surprised by any trades. I understand that Bill is always looking for trades that will upgrade the team, and at any position.

3) My primary focus is on our own free agents, and how we can improve the team by keeping them or replacing them.

4) For me, free agency (and the draft) is about improving from last year. That is a given since we changed coaches. If we have the same quality of players, I would expect 2-3 more wins.
=============
SOME THOUGHTS
A) WIDE RECEIVER
This is the hardest issue. Meyers and Agholor got lots and lots of reps last year. Sure, we hope that Thornton will improve, perhaps with more than his 50% of reps from last year. Perhaps, Bourne and Parker will have more production under new leadership.

However, we need at least one Meyers level wide receiver. Also, I'm sure that others will be brought in for depth. I suspect that Meyers will be paid by someone else. There isn't much out there. Belichick will be looking to acquire a wide receiver through trade. This could happen in a month, during the draft or in July or August.

My bottom line is that the receiving game will be much improved if we were to re-sign Meyers, given the coaching changes. We don't NEED a top WR.

B) RUNNING BACK
This is not an issue for those who simply plug in 2nd year players who have shown little and expect them to be Harris and White. Neither rookie saw much action.
I expect that Belichick will consider that Harris needs to re-signed or replaced. I'm fine with expecting ONE of Strong and Devin Harris to be a contributor. Expecting both to be automatic contributors seems wrong. After all, we are still waiting for Taylor to contribute.

C) DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD
McCourty will likely retire. Jones, Peppers and Williams are free agents. Bryant is an RFA.

JONES would be my #1 priority in free agency. He is worth more to us than to other teams. We should pay him. Ditto for PEPPERS, obviously for much less money. Both players very much want to come back. BRYANT isn't a favorite here. However, he is an OK #5 or #6 CB, and is likely to come back. The open question whether he will be tendered and how high.

D) DEFENSIVE FRONT SIX
Free agents include EKUALE, DAVIS, WILSON and MCMILLAN. I expect us to re-sign one of the DL's and one of the LB's. I'm fine with whatever choices are made. Obviously, Belichick could fill the positions from outside. However, all of these players are good enough to want them for camp.

E) SPECIAL TEAMS
These decisions could wait or be done this week. We will make decision at P, K, and LS. Also, Davis might be back, although that could wait a couple of months.

F) FINALLY, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM - THE OL
E1) I expect Hines, Steuber and Russey to compete for positions in camp. I wouldn't be surprised if all make the 53, or if none make it.
E2) As of now, we 4 starters under contract, plus McDermott (starting RT for now) plus RFA CAJUSTE if we bring him back.
E3) For those with great optimism (making believe that Dante were still coaching), that's 9 and we need to draft an OT in the first or second round, and in the 6th, and we'll be all set.
E4) For me, this is by far the biggest question mark for 2023.

SUMMARY
We need to re-sign or replace
Meyers
Agholor
Harris
Wynn
Cajuste
Ferentz
Jones
Peppers
McCourty
Bryant
Wilson/McMillan
Ekuale/Davis
Cardona
[13 seems like a "normal" sized list, with 4 key positions of need: WR, OT, CB and S.

I like that you teased the OL as #6 on your list and waited until your last point to say it is the most glaring issue on the Patriots. I've said it before, I'll say it repeatedly - the Patriots should use the #14 pick on the best OL on the Board in the draft, and spend whatever it takes to bring in a starting OL with a nasty streak. The TE, backfield, and QB rooms are fine. Bill O'Brien will install a true offensive system that matches his skill players and attacks the opponent's weakness. Give Mac time to do his thing and the running backs a little daylight, and this team will be able to move the ball.

Adrian Klemm was a great hire, I believe. he's played the position, coached in the NCAA and NFL, and has done other jobs like being the running game coordinator at Oregon last year. He knows how Dante Scarnecchia did things and has the added plus of working with young players for most of his coaching career. His presence makes drafting two linemen a reasonable proposition.

At #14 the Patriots should be able to get a top three offensive linemen. The G/T Paris Johnson from Ohio State would be ideal. On FA market, there are no left tackles that are attractive due to age and injury or salary cap issues. There are a few guys with five or six years experience who are G/C types. Either way, they should get two offensive linemen with some versatility.

On the pass protection and run game topic, I'd like to see the Patriots sign a true fullback to help deal with these blitz-happy defenses.

 

[mgteich]

I like that you teased the OL as #6 on your list and waited until your last point to say it is the most glaring issue on the Patriots. I've said it before, I'll say it repeatedly - the Patriots should use the #14 pick on the best OL on the Board in the draft, and spend whatever it takes to bring in a starting OL with a nasty streak. The TE, backfield, and QB rooms are fine. Bill O'Brien will install a true offensive system that matches his skill players and attacks the opponent's weakness. Give Mac time to do his thing and the running backs a little daylight, and this team will be able to move the ball.

Adrian Klemm was a great hire, I believe. he's played the position, coached in the NCAA and NFL, and has done other jobs like being the running game coordinator at Oregon last year. He knows how Dante Scarnecchia did things and has the added plus of working with young players for most of his coaching career. His presence makes drafting two linemen a reasonable proposition.

At #14 the Patriots should be able to get a top three offensive linemen. The G/T Paris Johnson from Ohio State would be ideal. On FA market, there are no left tackles that are attractive due to age and injury or salary cap issues. There are a few guys with five or six years experience who are G/C types. Either way, they should get two offensive linemen with some versatility.

On the pass protection and run game topic, I'd like to see the Patriots sign a true fullback to help deal with these blitz-happy defenses.

We should re-sign Jones, sign a free agent safety (Belichick is the very best at finding Tier 2 safeties that want to play for him and his son). Then the draft can focus on OL, OL, OL and a RB (to compete with Strong and Harris, if Harris isn't re-signed)
========
Some like our youngster backups at OL (who have shown nothing). We need 2 OT's, an OG and a backup C.
Our starter are NOT a strength: Brown, Strange, Andrews, Onwenu, McDermott
How many backups are NFL worthy: Steuber, Russey, Ferentz, Hines, Cajuste

If there weren't such lack of talent, I wouldn't be shocked to see any but the top 3 OL's staying on the team, plus hopefuls Hines and McDermott.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Jonathan Jones showed last year he isn’t a CB1. He’s about to turn 30 & the pats have Marcus Jones for the slot. Despite having one of the best pass rush units in the NFL last year their third down defense was mediocre because they couldn’t play man coverage like in past years.

They need a CB1. I expect them to be more aggressive with a QB entering year 3 of his rookie deal.

 

[Ivan]

1) I don't focus on the list of top free agents available. First, they end up being franchised. Also, the main reason that most are available is that they couldn't get enough money from their former team; they want more money.

2) I don't focus on potential trades. We have a poster that specializes in that rather well. For the most part, I allow myself to be surprised by any trades. I understand that Bill is always looking for trades that will upgrade the team, and at any position.

3) My primary focus is on our own free agents, and how we can improve the team by keeping them or replacing them.

4) For me, free agency (and the draft) is about improving from last year. That is a given since we changed coaches. If we have the same quality of players, I would expect 2-3 more wins.
=============
SOME THOUGHTS
A) WIDE RECEIVER
This is the hardest issue. Meyers and Agholor got lots and lots of reps last year. Sure, we hope that Thornton will improve, perhaps with more than his 50% of reps from last year. Perhaps, Bourne and Parker will have more production under new leadership.

However, we need at least one Meyers level wide receiver. Also, I'm sure that others will be brought in for depth. I suspect that Meyers will be paid by someone else. There isn't much out there. Belichick will be looking to acquire a wide receiver through trade. This could happen in a month, during the draft or in July or August.

My bottom line is that the receiving game will be much improved if we were to re-sign Meyers, given the coaching changes. We don't NEED a top WR.

B) RUNNING BACK
This is not an issue for those who simply plug in 2nd year players who have shown little and expect them to be Harris and White. Neither rookie saw much action.
I expect that Belichick will consider that Harris needs to re-signed or replaced. I'm fine with expecting ONE of Strong and Devin Harris to be a contributor. Expecting both to be automatic contributors seems wrong. After all, we are still waiting for Taylor to contribute.

C) DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD
McCourty will likely retire. Jones, Peppers and Williams are free agents. Bryant is an RFA.

JONES would be my #1 priority in free agency. He is worth more to us than to other teams. We should pay him. Ditto for PEPPERS, obviously for much less money. Both players very much want to come back. BRYANT isn't a favorite here. However, he is an OK #5 or #6 CB, and is likely to come back. The open question whether he will be tendered and how high.

D) DEFENSIVE FRONT SIX
Free agents include EKUALE, DAVIS, WILSON and MCMILLAN. I expect us to re-sign one of the DL's and one of the LB's. I'm fine with whatever choices are made. Obviously, Belichick could fill the positions from outside. However, all of these players are good enough to want them for camp.

E) SPECIAL TEAMS
These decisions could wait or be done this week. We will make decision at P, K, and LS. Also, Davis might be back, although that could wait a couple of months.

F) FINALLY, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM - THE OL
E1) I expect Hines, Steuber and Russey to compete for positions in camp. I wouldn't be surprised if all make the 53, or if none make it.
E2) As of now, we 4 starters under contract, plus McDermott (starting RT for now) plus RFA CAJUSTE if we bring him back.
E3) For those with great optimism (making believe that Dante were still coaching), that's 9 and we need to draft an OT in the first or second round, and in the 6th, and we'll be all set.
E4) For me, this is by far the biggest question mark for 2023.

SUMMARY
We need to re-sign or replace
Meyers
Agholor
Harris
Wynn
Cajuste
Ferentz
Jones
Peppers
McCourty
Bryant
Wilson/McMillan
Ekuale/Davis
Cardona
[13 seems like a "normal" sized list, with 4 key positions of need: WR, OT, CB and S.

On RB, you seem to have forgotten Stephenson completely. I would love to see Harris back, he’s a really good back, but Stephenson is the #1, and I expect Belichick to look for the #2 either in the draft or on the roster.

 

[mgteich]

On RB, you seem to have forgotten Stephenson completely. I would love to see Harris back, he’s a really good back, but Stephenson is the #1, and I expect Belichick to look for the #2 either in the draft or on the roster.

Stevenson is assumed. He is our #1 RB. We "usually" carry 4 plus a utility RB/WR.

RB #1: Stevenson
RB #2: ??? (alternates with Stevenson, obviously with many fewer reps)
RB#3: 3rd down back
RB#4: backup (primarily in case of injury; usually inactive
RB#5: Utility RB/WR/gimmick back, usually a special teamer
===========================
We could go with only 4, with Montgomery taking more reps as 3rd down back. Then we would have 3 active backs. Stevenson, Strong/Harris and Montgomery, with one of Strong/Montgomery inactive.

Yes, I think that we might look for a Harris replacement in the draft (to compete with Strong/Harris and with the possibility of never being active.