Malcom Butler.

[maineman209]

How many of those come from blitzes? How many come from plays that took longer than 4s? How many came from bad handling?

No idea.

I don't know of any advanced metrics for the pass rush (including pressures, holds drawn, etc.) that are accessible to me for free. But I was okay using sacks because I was making the point (in response to a specific post), that with the coaching and scheme the Pats play in the front seven, the get enough effective pressure on the opposing QB to get the job done (most of the time ) regardless whether they have a "Pass Rusher(!)" on the roster or not.

... the argument of our positioning is not relevant in this case.

On the contrary, it's completely relevant to my point. In spite of the fact that the Pats sack production (as a placeholder for more sophisticated pressure metrics) has been roughly the NFL average (presumably because the Pats haven't drafted that Pass Rusher! that some fans claim, year-after-year, they so desperately need) the Pats have been reaching and winning Championship Games and Superbowls (with a defense that's consistently in the Top Ten in points allowed) more often that many other teams even make the playoffs - including other teams that do have that Pass Rusher! and that get way more sacks than the Pats do.

Should we keep playing Richards on defense? We are the #1 seed and he is seing some action... those two variable can be correlated, but that doesnt imply causation... there's plenty of variables at work

I don't see how the fact that Richards is on the roster and is averaging 15 defensive snaps/game (in addition to playing the most snaps on ST) is relevant to my point about the Pats needing a Pass Rusher(!).

The Pats are mediocre in sacks because they have superb coaching and game planning, which has to reflect in most stats, including sacks.

Addressed above. However, the fact is that they've been, most years, statistically average. I understand that some folks equate average with mediocre, and that some folks feel that the Pats need to be elite or Top 10 in pretty much every statistical category or .... IDK ... something horrible is bound to happen. But it is what it is.

Our D line sucks at rushing by itself.

Actually, that's been true most seasons - with the DL, especially the interior DL - getting the minority percentage of total sacks. It seems that every position in the Front Seven has always chipped in significantly on the Pats sacks totals (with occasional help from the DBs).

Actually, our D line is bad in general, because it also cant stop the run.

Clearly, the Pats run-D has been poor this season - 26th in terms of yards allowed and dead last in ypa allowed (still 2nd best in rushing TDs allowed). However, I wouldn't put that all on the DL. Run-D is a Front-7 task.

The run-D has been slightly above average against power running (interior DL, mostly), but has been at or near the bottom in allowing second level yards (LBs). And most of the yardage damage has been coming around the defensive left end - which is a problem with the edge setting responsibilities of both DE and LB/OLB (and Safety, to some degree).

Prioritizing a "Pass Rusher!" won't help with that. The fact is that most "Pass Rushers!" in the draft (and many veterans around the league) are nearly one-trick ponies who really struggle to set edge-contain on running plays with any consistency. Those college prospect "Pass Rushers!" who appear to be equally capable of rushing and edge-setting are typically off the board in the top half of the 1st round. That generally leave the Pats with a choice between a prospect who can rush and a prospect who can set the edge, and they almost always choose the latter because the scheme usually gets them enough pass rush pressure.

As to why the run-D has been so relatively poor this season, that also goes back to the personnel they've lost. Nink, McClellin, HT and Long were all pretty consistent edge-setters (although Long didn't "like" doing it, he did it) and did fairly well against the run in general. Even Sheard wasn't consistently bad in run-D. They've all been gone this season, plus Branch seems to have fallen off a cliff and Valentine has been on IR. Plus, they're not getting any of the potential benefit they may have expected from Rivers and Langi.

OTOH, they have a lot of young (or young-ish) players in (or coming back to) the Front-7 now ...
- Wise, Valentine, Butler, Brown, Lee, Rivers and Roberts are all 23.
- Trey Flowers is 24; Marquis Flowers and Langi are 25. Van Noy is 26.
..... (DL guys are in bold)

Guy is a "middle-aged" veteran at 27, as are HT (27) and Reilly (29). Guy and RJF (a 31-year-old "temp") are new to the system/scheme (as are Wise, Butler, Lee and M. Flowers). McClellin (28) is another middle-aged veteran OLB/DE who may (or may not) be coming back next season.

DL is the number 1 priority this offseason, at least in my opinion.

It seems to me that the Pats already have quite a bit of young talent to work with along the DL. I think the interior DL could maybe use one more young guy (and a veteran to replace Branch, if RJF isn't already that guy). But I think that LB could use probably two more (plus maybe a veteran to replace Harris).

Personally, I'd prioritize LB over DL.

Also, in-the-box safety (another crucial aspect of run-D) currently consists of 30-year-old Chung ..... and Richards. So, I'd probably prioritize both LB and Safety over DL. How all that ultimately works out with what draft picks are spent on what position, of course, depends on what specific players fall to within the Pats reach.

 

[Oswlek]

would you wait until round 3 to draft Wilson or round 5 to get Sherman or Chancellor ? All it takes is one other team to have heard something similar from their college contacts or scouting personnel.

Of course not, assuming we know exactly how their careers will play out. But why do we need to assume that? Why can't "inside info" just be "I scouted this guy more because I played against him a few times, and I think he's got a chance to be better than people think"?

An advantage doesn't have to be enormous to generate dramatic results.

FTR, I don't consider Wilson to be an inside info guy. Everyone knew he had ability, his only issue was size.

 

[varjao]

Not trying to read much into this but there is a sight and sounds from the Pittsburgh game on the Patriots facebook page and McCourty was doing his pre-game speech that way with so much energy and all the guys on the same page, pumping themselves and Butler was on the huddle but kinda isolated and apparently not giving a flying ****.

The last time I had this feeling that the player had checked out and was with his head on the free agency was with Bennett in the last games of last season, he was doing his job but the body language was different and other members here noticed the same. Just saying.

I think Butler doesn't stay because from a cap perspective there is already too much money on the secondary and a lot of needs on the roster, including our own free agents, but I think he is in for a big surprise when he faces the reality of the market.

 

[Kontradiction]

Not trying to read much into this but there is a sight and sounds from the Pittsburgh game on the Patriots facebook page and McCourty was doing his pre-game speech that way with so much energy and all the guys on the same page, pumping themselves and Butler was on the huddle but kinda isolated and apparently not giving a flying ****.

The last time I had this feeling that the player had checked out and was with his head on the free agency was with Bennett in the last games of last season, he was doing his job but the body language was different and other members here noticed the same. Just saying.

I think Butler doesn't stay because from a cap perspective there is already too much money on the secondary and a lot of needs on the roster, including our own free agents, but I think he is in for a big surprise when he faces the reality of the market.

This is Belichick we're talking about. If Butler was truly mentally checked out, he wouldn't be playing at all. But yes, I agree that he's gone in the offseason.

 

[maineman209]

Not trying to read much into this but there is a sight and sounds from the Pittsburgh game on the Patriots facebook page and McCourty was doing his pre-game speech that way with so much energy and all the guys on the same page, pumping themselves and Butler was on the huddle but kinda isolated and apparently not giving a flying ****.

The last time I had this feeling that the player had checked out and was with his head on the free agency was with Bennett in the last games of last season, he was doing his job but the body language was different and other members here noticed the same. Just saying.

I think Butler doesn't stay because from a cap perspective there is already too much money on the secondary and a lot of needs on the roster, including our own free agents, but I think he is in for a big surprise when he faces the reality of the market.

Alternatively, maybe his head was already in game mode, visualizing what he needed to watch for from Brown. Could have been focus rather than apathy.