Lelie Close to Being Traded

[JoeSixPat]

JSP -
By your logic, the Pats should trade Graham to Denver and short themselves out of one of the best (if not the BEST) blocking TE in the league who also happens to have hands as good as Antonio Gates (according to the %'s). And that would leave the Pats with only 2 TEs, one of them being a rookie.

Please explain to me how that makes ANY sense.

First of all I didn't write the report that had Denver interested in trading for a TE - so I'm not really concerned about justifying why they want a TE.

But did the owner of the Colts pass a new rule that precludes the Patriots from signing a veteran TE when I wasn't looking? Damn! That guy is good!

You win... I didn't know we weren't allowed to replace Graham with anyone if we traded him, leaving us with only 2 TEs (3 actually the way some people look at the roster).

But even if we did - who knows - maybe BB might do something "crazy" like plug a LB or DT in as a TE on a goal line situation either to block or catch a pass.

Hey - I like Graham a ton at his current $1 - $1.5 mill salary... doubt we could sign him as cheap as $2 million and really question his value at $2.5 - $4 mil.

He's a great blocker, and ok pass catcher - but not so great that when the game is on the line BB has often had members of the Defense lining up at to block or catch passes.

 

[pats1]

First of all I didn't write the report that had Denver interested in trading for a TE - so I'm not really concerned about justifying why they want a TE.

But did the owner of the Colts pass a new rule that precludes the Patriots from signing a veteran TE when I wasn't looking? Damn! That guy is good!

You win... I didn't know we weren't allowed to replace Graham with anyone if we traded him, leaving us with only 2 TEs (3 actually the way some people look at the roster).

And who would they sign to replace Graham? Walter Rasby? Jed Weaver? Byron Chamberlain? Fred Baxter?

 

[spacecrime]

Yep, so he's missed 20 games of a possible 38. That's 6 more games than Graham has missed in his 4 seasons. Yet, Graham is injury prone. Go Figure.

That's because Watson had one injury that made him miss an entire season and Grahma keeps getting smaller injuries.

However, I don't think either player is injury prone. People make too much of injuries being symptomatic of something. Players get hurt becuase they play a violent sport.

There are few players who play every game every season, and that is remarkable when they do it year after year.

Branch had three years of playing most of the games (including all games last year), and had one year where Neal took him out, and still that "WE ONLY GOT ONE WR" guy thinks he won't play a single game next year.

If a player has a injury, and it keep recurring, that might mean something. But the guy who tears an ACL one year, and separates a shoulder the next is no injury prone. He plays hard. And perhaps has bad luck.

 

[maverick4]

re

And who would they sign to replace Graham? Walter Rasby? Jed Weaver? Byron Chamberlain? Fred Baxter?

Why would they need to replace Graham? They currently have 4 TE's, including Watson who can block and catch, and is constantly improving.

 

[maverick4]

That's because Watson had one injury that made him miss an entire season and Grahma keeps getting smaller injuries.

Yeah, talk about twisting the facts! You can't say their missed games are similar, when one guy missed an entire season. That's as misleading as saying Dan Graham catches balls as well as Antonio Gates, when that statistic ignores # balls thrown and also doesn't take into account route or pass difficulty, or passing accuracy.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Ok you're taking this Graham worship way too far.
Reality check:
Antonio Gates
Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD
2004 San Diego Chargers 15 15 81 964 11.9 72 13 14 1 55
2005 San Diego Chargers 15 15 89 1101 12.4 38 10 16 0 62

Dan Graham
Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD
2004 New England Patriots 14 14 30 364 12.1 48 7 6 1 20
2005 New England Patriots 11 9 16 235 14.7 45 3 4 2 9

PS Daniel Graham has NEVER had a 40 catch season. In his best year he had 38 catches for 409 yards and 4 TDs.

Those of you homers implying Graham is in the same league as Antonio Gates need to lay down the crack pipe.

JSP -
By your logic, the Pats should trade Graham to Denver and short themselves out of one of the best (if not the BEST) blocking TE in the league who also happens to have hands as good as Antonio Gates (according to the %'s). And that would leave the Pats with only 2 TEs, one of them being a rookie.

Please explain to me how that makes ANY sense.

 

[DaBruinz]

First of all I didn't write the report that had Denver interested in trading for a TE - so I'm not really concerned about justifying why they want a TE.

JSP -
People who don't focus on the point of a sentence and go off on some tangent generally are admitting they don't have a leg to stand on in the argument.

I didn't accuse you of reporting that Denver had an interest in trading for a TE and the point of my post wasn't to justify why Denver needed one. The point was for you to make some sense out of WHY the Pats would even consider trading Graham when it hurts the team more than it helps.

But did the owner of the Colts pass a new rule that precludes the Patriots from signing a veteran TE when I wasn't looking? Damn! That guy is good!

There aren't any decent ones available. Otherwise, Denver wouldn't have to seek one in a trade.

You win... I didn't know we weren't allowed to replace Graham with anyone if we traded him, leaving us with only 2 TEs (3 actually the way some people look at the roster).

Again, none of the ones available can even hold a candle to Graham. Not to mention that they wouldn't know the offense and would leave the Pats with an unproven 2nd year player who has lots of potential, a rookie and a player who doesn't know the offense.

But even if we did - who knows - maybe BB might do something "crazy" like plug a LB or DT in as a TE on a goal line situation either to block or catch a pass.

I'm sorry. I missed where the gimick play become a regular staple in the offense.

Hey - I like Graham a ton at his current $1 - $1.5 mill salary... doubt we could sign him as cheap as $2 million and really question his value at $2.5 - $4 mil.

He's a great blocker, and ok pass catcher - but not so great that when the game is on the line BB has often had members of the Defense lining up at to block or catch passes.

Actually, its only been a handful of times that BB has had Vrabel lining up at TE. And that is over a 3 year period. But, lets just exaggerate to prove a point, right?

 

[DaBruinz]

VJC -
There is no hero-worship on my part. However, there is a failure on YOUR part to have actually read my post. If you had, your wouldn't have posted stats that had no relevence to my post.

Also, had you read the other Graham thread, you would have seen that Dryheat posted that Gates had caught 64% of the passes thrown his way. You would have also seen that Graham had ALSO caught 64% of the passes thrown his way. Hence, my saying that Graham's hands were as good as Gates based on the %'s.

Now, maybe before opening your mouth and making a fool of yourself and telling others to lay down the crack pipe, you should do so yourself. I've watched Gates for the Pats 3 years. In SD's offense with Brees leading it, Gates was their primary receiver. McCardell, Parker and Tomlinson, with Gates, account for 82% of the receptions that SD's offense accounts for.

Ok you're taking this Graham worship way too far.
Reality check:
Antonio Gates
Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD
2004 San Diego Chargers 15 15 81 964 11.9 72 13 14 1 55
2005 San Diego Chargers 15 15 89 1101 12.4 38 10 16 0 62

Dan Graham
Year Team G GS No Yards Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ FD
2004 New England Patriots 14 14 30 364 12.1 48 7 6 1 20
2005 New England Patriots 11 9 16 235 14.7 45 3 4 2 9

PS Daniel Graham has NEVER had a 40 catch season. In his best year he had 38 catches for 409 yards and 4 TDs.

Those of you homers implying Graham is in the same league as Antonio Gates need to lay down the crack pipe.

 

[rookBoston]

I disbelieve this rumor

First, I dont think the Pats are interested in Leslie.

Second, even if they were, I think they think too highly of Graham to see it as a fair trade. Not that Graham is untouchable... only that it would take more than that to demonstrate value.

I might see a scenario where the Pats would trade Graham to Denver, who sends Leslie somewhere, to send a defensive player to the Pats. Maybe a LB like Hunter Hillenmeyer or Kailee Wong? What if BB could land Ed Reed for Graham? That would be doable from a Pats perspective, if Baltimore were that desperate for talent at WR and didn't think they'd be able to retain Reed. Wishful thinking... ?

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I disbelieve this rumor

There's nothing to disbelieve. The rumor that Lelie will be traded soon in a three team deal is the only "rumor" and it's likely true. Any involvement on the part of the Patriots is merely idle speculation and chat, nothing more.

 

[spacecrime]

Dryheat posted that Gates had caught 64% of the passes thrown his way. You would have also seen that Graham had ALSO caught 64% of the passes thrown his way. Hence, my saying that Graham's hands were as good as Gates

I think the percentage of passes caught is very telling, and wonder why it isn't used more often.

Perhaps coaches and personnel men do. Media people obviously don't, preferring to focus on # of catches and even less indicative of a good pass catcher, # of TD's.

If a guy catches a lot of passes, he is assumed to be good, when if fact he could just be thrown to a lot for any number of reasons.

It's not a perfect stat (but then what is?) because some passes are easy and some are hard, but assuming that the easy and tough ones average out over a career or even a season, percentage of passes caught ought to be as important a stat as a QB's completion percentage.

 

[JoeSixPat]

JSP -
People who don't focus on the point of a sentence and go off on some tangent generally are admitting they don't have a leg to stand on in the argument.

I didn't accuse you of reporting that Denver had an interest in trading for a TE and the point of my post wasn't to justify why Denver needed one. The point was for you to make some sense out of WHY the Pats would even consider trading Graham when it hurts the team more than it helps.



There aren't any decent ones available. Otherwise, Denver wouldn't have to seek one in a trade.



Again, none of the ones available can even hold a candle to Graham. Not to mention that they wouldn't know the offense and would leave the Pats with an unproven 2nd year player who has lots of potential, a rookie and a player who doesn't know the offense.



I'm sorry. I missed where the gimick play become a regular staple in the offense.



Actually, its only been a handful of times that BB has had Vrabel lining up at TE. And that is over a 3 year period. But, lets just exaggerate to prove a point, right?

Graham's dropped TD passes certainly stand out in my memory - (as well as a few amazing catches) - but I'm pretty confident in saying he's a better blocker than pass catcher - and therein lies his value to the team - but by next year at the very least I think any of the rookies can take his place.

Of course I'm sure I don't have to remind people that BB likes Grahams pass catching and goal line blocking so much that in memorable big game goal line situations he's used Vrabel, Seymour, I think Klecko - anyone else I'm forgetting - on quite a few occassions.

You can think I'm exaggertating if you want - but go ahead and look up the stats to see how many TD receptions Graham had last year and how many Vrabel did.

 

[spacecrime]

I think it's going a little overboard to believe Graham is as good a pass catcher as Antonio Gates. We are talking about a player who has averaged 2 catches a game in his career

You are completely missing the point, that the question of hands is not about total catches made. It is about catching the passes thrown to his way. Forget fantasy football for a minute and think of real football.

If he truly had great hands, then Dan Graham should be the highest paid tight end in the game,

There is no way to respond to such nonsense. Graham is working on his rookie contract. His pay is based on his draft position.

If you are looking for stats, no Graham does not have them, and if that is your criteria, then no, Graham is not better than Gonzales, Shockey and others. But Graham is still the better football player. Fantasy football is changing fandom, and not for the better.

We both have our idea of what makes the better player, and what constitutes good hands, and they are at opposite ends of the spectrum, so I guess we can never come together on this one.

 

[maverick4]

re

[edit: woops, I posted twice but deleted the first, identical post. the second one is here (it's the same text)]

That might not be necessarily true, and since you bring up completion %, I would like to offer Pittsburgh's QB as an example. Big Ben has a very high career regular season completion% and QB rating, but that is largely because he has had a dominant running offense, and he has not had to make difficult throws on a regular basis. Another example is batting average in baseball. Two players can bat .350, but if one only has 100 at-bats in the 9th hole and the other has 500 at-bats at cleanup, their batting average does not indicate that their contact skills are equal.

For tight ends, it is difficult to look only at balls thown and balls caught and try to draw any conclusions about a player's hands or ability as a receiver. There are a few variables that can greatly affect this number:

1. Being a team's #1 option and facing constant double teams, versus being a team's #3 option and facing a team's lesser coverage player.
2. Having a bad QB who throws to you when you are not open, or is not accurate in general when throwing.
3. Running easy short curls or flat patterns, as opposed to attacking the defense with mid or long patterns.
4. Easy and tough catches may not average out among all players over the course of a season, because tight ends are used so differently by every team.

I think it's going a little overboard to believe Graham is as good a pass catcher as Antonio Gates. We are talking about a player who has averaged 2 catches a game in his career, and who is sometimes subbed out for defensive players at the goal line. If he truly had great hands, then Dan Graham should be the highest paid tight end in the game, since it would make him a great receiver as well as blocker. Due to his injuries, statistics, and use in goal line situations, I think some can agree that Dan Graham isn't the complete package that some have claimed him to be.

For being an outstanding blocker, I would value Graham at slightly higher than 2Mill, but I think his skills are replaceable. I don't buy the argument that he is a multi-dimensional threat. If he were, we would be arguing about whether Graham was worth 4+ million or not, instead of somewhere between 1.5-3million. Finally, since Graham has been here, I have never associated him with being a key 3rd down target, or a weapon in the red zone (with the exception of a string of games in 2003, I believe).

I am not anti-Graham. I know he is a good player, but I feel that some of his skills have been inflated here. I guess I should mention, so people can have an idea of how I view players, that I thought letting Adam and Willie go were the right moves, despite my sentimental attachments to them. I'll admit that I tend to take a more ruthless approach to player evaluations, and try to keep my own subjectiveness out of things, which sometimes skews my perspective.

 

[maverick4]

re

You are completely missing the point, that the question of hands is not about total catches made. It is about catching the passes thrown to his way. Forget fantasy football for a minute and think of real football.

There is no way to respond to such nonsense. Graham is working on his rookie contract. His pay is based on his draft position.

If you are looking for stats, no Graham does not have them, and if that is your criteria, then no, Graham is not better than Gonzales, Shockey and others. But Graham is still the better football player. Fantasy football is changing fandom, and not for the better.

We both have our idea of what makes the better player, and what constitutes good hands, and they are at opposite ends of the spectrum, so I guess we can never come together on this one.

Spacecrime, you are missing the point. I don't care about flashy fantasy football stats. I realize that tight ends often do dirty work that don't show up statistically. But, think about what you are saying. If Graham really was not only an outstanding blocker but an amazing receiver, how come no one has suggested that Graham's next contract ought to make him a top-3 highest paid tight end? Based on your evaluation of Graham's talent, he should be the 3rd highest paid offensive player on the Pats behind Brady and Light after his next contract deal.

Also, you don't understand what I'm talking about concerning catching%. Antonio Gates faces a double team, often with against a team's top cover man. Dan Graham is usually the 3rd or 4th option, and most of his catches are not in traffic, and are short passes. There is a big difference in the situations they are put in when they catch the ball.
.

 

[maverick4]

re

You are completely missing the point, that the question of hands is not about total catches made. It is about catching the passes thrown to his way. Forget fantasy football for a minute and think of real football.

Do you really not see that there is a difference between Antonio Gates' catches and Dan Graham's catches? I am not talking about fantasy stats here!

Since you don't understand the Big Ben and batting average analogies, how about an NBA analogy:
Field goal percentage is the chance a player's shot will go into the hoop. If Kobe Bryant shoots 25 times a game and hits 45% of his shots, while Tony Battie shoots 10 times a game and hits 50% of his shots, would you say Battie is the better shooter?

Of course not. Battie shoots garbage shots after rebounds from 5 feet away, while Bryant is the focal point of his offense and is guarded by the opposing team's best defender.

It's not about fantasy stats, it's about context.

If you think Graham is as great a receiver as Gates, then you should have no problem with the Pats giving Graham a 7Mill/yr contract, since he's the most dominating blocker and receiver in the game by your standards.

 

[dhamz]

If it is a 3 way deal and the Broncos get Graham but give up Lelie, then who is getting Lelie and who are the Pats getting?

 

[JoeSixPat]

If we want to have this break down into solely a stats discussion, or who has the better hands - and higher percentage of catches, then perhaps Mike Vrabel is the best TE of them all - including Gonzales.

At the very least he had as many TD catches last year as Graham... seems like maybe BB likes Vrabel's blocking and passing skills as much as Graham's in those situations

So if Vrabel is as good as Graham and Graham is as good as Gonzales, ergo Vrabel is as good as Gonzales

either that or maybe Maverick has a point

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

If it is a 3 way deal and the Broncos get Graham but give up Lelie, then who is getting Lelie and who are the Pats getting?

I actually see the more likely scenario as the Patriots getting Lelie and giving something to someone else who give a TE to the Broncos.

I don't think it'll happen as Lelie seems to want a big role and a big contract. But with our WR situation I see that as the more likely scenario.

 

[maverick4]

re

I think Belichickfan is right, in that the Pats won't trade one of their own TE's straight up for Lelie. What about a package of guys who won't stick this year (Dan Klecko, Don Davis, Guss Scott, Larry Izzo) for Lelie, with a 3rd party trading their tight end and receiving the Pats players? Wishful thinking, I guess, that someone would trade for our junk...