Is this game being a rematch something to worry about?

[PatsFan24]

Each time the Patriots have lost in the postseason under BB/TB it has been a rematch of a team they played in the regular season. 05-Denver 06-Indy 07-NYG 09-BAL 10-NYJ 11-NYG 12-BAL. Is this trend something to be worried about come Sunday?

Between 2001-04 the Pats were 4-0 in postseason rematches (2-0 vs Indy, 1-0 vs Pit, 1-0 vs STL) Since 2005 they have gone 4-7.

BB/TB have only lost twice on the road in the postseason, once at Denver, and once against P.Manning. Does this mean they are doomed for Sunday, or is it a double negative and it means they will win?

 

[supafly]

Personally, I think it's just a matter of coming down to who executes best on Sunday, and who gets a couple of lucky calls/breaks, rather than any kind of past results with stats.

A lot of these things go hand in hand...Brady's only 8-7 in his last 15 postseason games, we've only been 4-7 in postseason rematches, etc, etc. In other words, a lot of these things are going to fall in line with each other in my opinion.

I think one of our biggest weaknesses lately (2010--current) was just the ability to successfully run the ball when the opposition lined up in nickel defenses to help stop our passing game. The Jets, Giants, and Ravens all basically dared us to run and yet we couldn't do it effectively enough to have success. This year the shoe may be on the other foot though, if our passing game isn't scaring them enough/keeping them honest enough.

 

[Triumph]

In 2001, the Pats played the Rams in the regular season (lost) and then beat them in the post season Super Bowl.

in 2004 NE beat Indy in the regular season and then lost to Pittsburgh in the regular season. The Pats beat both teams in the post season to advance to the Super Bowl.

 

[Triumph]

Every time the Pats have been 5 + underdog in the post season they have won. NE opened at + 6.5 vs Denver.

2001 they beat the 15 - 1 Steelers @ Pittsburgh.
2001 they beat the Rams in the Super Bowl.
2006 they beat the 14 - 2 Chargers @ SD.

All road wins.

 

[KamikazeKnight]

These stats are always so pointless. The bottom line is that it will come down to who executes better on both sides of the ball. We could sit here and play this game all day, and it still won't matter. The team who scores the most points by the end of the game is the one that wins. It's that simple. :rocker:

 

[Gwedd]

These stats are always so pointless. The bottom line is that it will come down to who executes better on both sides of the ball. We could sit here and play this game all day, and it still won't matter. The team who scores the most points by the end of the game is the one that wins. It's that simple. :rocker:

Concur. Looking at past performance isn't a good indicator of future performance.

For example, when explaining statistics to the young'ns, I use Roulette. Folks go on and on and lose tons of money on the game, thinking that because the ball landed on, say, red, for 7 times in a row, that it's "due" to hit on black, so they bet accordingly. The problem is that each spin of the wheel is a separate, new, game. There is still a 50/50 chance of hitting red (or black, your call) each time and a wheel could produce 25 results of red in a row and the 26th game would STILL be a 50/50 chance of a different result.

Same with football. Though the framework of the teams remains the same, there are so many variables that each game is very much a separate statistical model. Players don't dress, get hurt, get sick, aren't playing at 100%. The refs are different and call things slightly one way or the other depending upon how they personally see things. The ball is a spherical-conoidal shape which Lord knows which way it's going to bounce when it hits the ground, or off the punter's foot. Rain, wind, snow, ice, temperature, are all variables to bring into play too. Day or night game. Sun angle can also play a part in the outcome.

So statistics have an industry all their own in Football, but in the end, it just comes down to who executes better, and who puts up the most points.

Personally, I like our chances at Denver, though.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Just psychological filler. Each team can point to stats that might make them seem favored and I think Gwedd pointed out the uselessness of stats quite well.

And no matter what Bud Light may say, we fans can't create enough cosmic karma to affect the game. Well maybe as a fan at the game, but other than that it's all up to the men/coaches on the field and the work they put in beforehand.

 

[Bella*chick]

I will freely admit it somewhat bothers me that we won the first matchup because we usually do so well when we lose the first matchup and then meet again in the playoffs (except for the Giants last SB, ugh). But the first match was such a weird game, with us actually having a dreadful first half and them just kind of trying to get through the game without major mistakes. And the weather was huge. I don't think we can look at that game, sit back and say, well, why change anything? We beat them! EVERYTHING has pretty much changed since that game. So I kind of look at this as a new matchup completely.

 

[Danger Zone]

These stats are always so pointless...

92.613% of stats are made-up.

24.871% of the people reading this will think I'm being serious.

36.23% of the people will not read this because they stopped reading this post the line before.

 

[dannydyn]

Past performance does not guarantee future results

That's all I have to say. Past outcomes mean jack. New season, new SB shot.

 

[PatsFan24]

Here are more fun facts:

Under TB/BB The Pats are 6-0 at home in the playoffs on Saturday night, 5-0 in the division round.

All five times the Pats hosted the divisional around game on Saturday night, the went to the Super Bowl. All the times they host that game, they failed to make it to the Super Bowl.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I will use the logic of the fans of our rivals...


Under BB and TB,
We are 9-0 in the playoffs facing teams for the first time.
We are 8-7 in the playoffs facing teams for the 2nd or 3rd time.

therefore,

our opponents must be spying on us, decoding our signals from the earlier game, so that we lose the rematch

We're being cheated!

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

someone is going to get a lucky pick..or a lucky fumble in this one..and if they can turn it into points..that will go a long was

 

[CelticPatriot]

I will freely admit it somewhat bothers me that we won the first matchup because we usually do so well when we lose the first matchup and then meet again in the playoffs (except for the Giants last SB, ugh). But the first match was such a weird game, with us actually having a dreadful first half and them just kind of trying to get through the game without major mistakes. And the weather was huge. I don't think we can look at that game, sit back and say, well, why change anything? We beat them! EVERYTHING has pretty much changed since that game. So I kind of look at this as a new matchup completely.

The way I like to think of it is; "if we hadn't had one of the worst first halfs in the BB/Brady era, then we'd have blown the Broncos out".

 

[Archeryaddict12]

someone is going to get a lucky pick..or a lucky fumble in this one..and if they can turn it into points..that will go a long was

If we could get another int like dennard right away, we could set the tone early.

 

[QB12]

Brady missed Wednesday practice when we beat the Ravens in the 2011 AFCC Game.
Brady was very sick the night before we beat Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in the 2004 AFCC game.

 

[FourierSeries]

None of these stats or historical facts matter. I would say that not even this year's regular season stats matter, let alone stats from several years ago.

What matters is how we matchup with Denver and how we execute on Sunday. This team is physical, gritty, and battle tested. All of this will be a huge advantage playing against a soft Denver team.

 

[RayClay]

Each time the Patriots have lost in the postseason under BB/TB it has been a rematch of a team they played in the regular season. 05-Denver 06-Indy 07-NYG 09-BAL 10-NYJ 11-NYG 12-BAL. Is this trend something to be worried about come Sunday?

Between 2001-04 the Pats were 4-0 in postseason rematches (2-0 vs Indy, 1-0 vs Pit, 1-0 vs STL) Since 2005 they have gone 4-7.

BB/TB have only lost twice on the road in the postseason, once at Denver, and once against P.Manning. Does this mean they are doomed for Sunday, or is it a double negative and it means they will win?

You think too much, my friend.

 

[RayClay]

But, if seeing us gives Peyton one up, he saw a team with Gronk, with a shaky, not dominant running game, without Siliga and Collins for the most part. And some missing parts from our now excellent secondary.

 

[clam chowdah]

I wouldn't read into the comparisons about the past since this is 2014 and the patriots will quiet the most hyped up overrated team in NFL history on sunday. I'm predicting some serious pain for denver, I'm thinking we don't even have a 4th down and Blount will have another 4td game.