Is it possible that the #1 pick wont be as valuable as we thought this year?

[Toofy]

WAYYYYYY too early to make any definitive statements about what to do with the 4th pick in this year's draft. Mostly because we will have almost 3 months of FA to deal with before the draft even starts. It will be hard to figure out a draft strategy until we know what will happen during those 3 months.

History shows us that there are generally 5-10 players in EVERY draft that "special" athletes. This season is a weaker draft at the top and I'm thinking the number is a lot closer to 5 than 10. 3 months from now after the senior and shrine games, after the combines, and after every bit of film of those top players have been analyzed ad nauseum we HOPE we will be in a position to make a solid educated guess on whom to choose. And remember when you are drafting it is ALWAYS just a guess.

BUT since we are in guessing mode, here or some of my guesses. I spent a couple of weeks bemoaning the loss of the #1 pick since I thought there might be 2 chances to trade down and pick up significant draft or player assets and STILL end up with a top 5 pick. But that was weeks ago, I got over it and so should you.

At #4 we will likely be in position to get one of the 2 best non-QB options. In my mind that would include one of these 3 players. Graham, Hunter, and Carter, and I'd be very happy since we'd be immediately better with any of those 3 guys, though I'm a LITTLE concerned about Carter's size at the next level. And I'm also a LITTLE concerned about just how much 2-way action can you reasonably expect from Hunter and still keep him upright over the course of a LONG season.

I'm reading that beyond that group the talent drops down to the next group of players who are ALL very good, but not quite "special". In the end I think my binky right now would be Graham who plays a position on defense that would be immensely difference making at DT. NOTHING disrupts a passing game more than a strong interior rush. Graham has the rare combination of quickness and power to make everyone around him better. And I guess that that's as good as a definition of a "special" player, he not only plays HIS position at an elite level, but he also makes everyone around him better.

I say stay at #4 and get one of those 3 guys, but it's also reasonable to trade down into the top 15, and pick up a now more reasonably placed OT, but that would depend on what you got for that trade.

The only way we will trade to mid 10s would be for a extra second this year and extra 1st next year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You can’t draft what isn’t there, and there is no Joe Alt in this draft.

Setting aside the fact that drafting an OT at 4 is almost certainly not the best use of that draft pick, Maye could probably feast behind even a league-average line.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

The only way we will trade to mid 10s would be for a extra second this year and extra 1st next year.

That is a high bar for sure. Realistically no teams are going to make that offer for anyone that will be on the board at number 4. If that is truly the criteria, the Pats have to have Drake Maye level confidence in that player. I think the extra second or the first next year is the maximum value for the pick. Depending on how the team feels about the draft class, a trade down is possible. The extra second could help restock the roster more quickly.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That is a high bar for sure. Realistically no teams are going to make that offer for anyone that will be on the board at number 4. If that is truly the criteria, the Pats have to have Drake Maye level confidence in that player. I think the extra second or the first next year is the maximum value for the pick. Depending on how the team feels about the draft class, a trade down is possible. The extra second could help restock the roster more quickly.

The bigger problem with trading down that far is that it's unlikely you'll have a HC/GM on enough of a hot seat to be willing to give up a first in what is likely to be a better draft class.