Is Brady's future performance "predictable"?

[aluminum seats]

The only thing we can say for certain is BB has not seen sufficient value to make a deal.

Agreed. I was countering that point of speculation, not the facts on the ground.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The only thing we can say for certain is BB has not seen sufficient value to make a deal.

Actually we can also say that there is absolutely no evidence that Belichick thinks anyone is a better QB than Brady.

Let us know when he voluntarily starts another QB?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I took a look at some of Brady's stats from 2010 to 2016 (e.g., DVOA, completion and INT %ages), and put them on a graph. They're normalized relative to 2010, and the vertical line represents the 2014 preseason where they drafted Garoppolo.

The key here is that there was a clear downward trend from 2010 to 2013, and then a clear rebound since then.



So, is Brady's performance the last three years the result of him "finding the fountain of youth" (i.e., something that will last for years) or a sort of "Indian summer" that will end soon?

What BB thinks is the answer to that question will go a long way in determining what the Pats do with Garoppolo.

I don't think his performance actually declined from 2010 to 2013. There are better explanations for why his numbers declined, rather than his own personal skills.

2010 - Almost impossible to exceed this high water mark. 36 TDs, 4 INTs, and many think he was as good, if not better, than 2007. Only unanimous MVP in NFL history.

2011 - The downtick from 2010 is more about an unsustainable level of play than anything else. Brady was phenomenal in 2011 with 39 TDs. He also had 1300 more yards passing than the year before, so that makes it even more difficult to remain as efficient.

2012 - The best explanation for Brady's continued downward production is that in 2012, Gronkowski missed almost the whole season. Despite this, at some point that year, Brady had something like 24 TDs against 2 INTs. He was right in the thick of the MVP race before the team started coasting with about a month to go.

2013 - Easily the worst receiving corp since 2006. Edelman emerged as a reliable receiver. Other receivers were Dobson and Thompkins, who were not actually very good even though they racked up a lot of yards as rookies; of course, they also received an inordinate amount of targets. Another injury to Gronkowski and the Hernandez fiasco, along with the losses of Welker and Lloyd...the Patriots set a record for most production lost at WR from the previous season. Amendola was injured most of his first season as well. This team somehow made it to the AFCCG...because of Brady.