Is Belichick Planning on Light's Return?

[mgteich]

If Belichick isn't planning on Light's return, I would expect an OT to be drafted by us in the top 21 picks. I would expect that we would use 66 or 74 to move from 33 for an OT. We would still have 28 or the trade down from 28 for a starting OG. Of course, #17 or thereabouts is still for our DE!

Obviously, my preference is not to need to use a 1st or 2nd rounder for an OT. Obviously, with Light and Vollmer (and possibly even Kaczur), the need (if any) is just for a backup, which can be has in the 3rd (e.g. Carpenter).

 

[jeffbiologist]

If we dont resign Light then Vollmer is most definately LT. I dont see the value of drafting a pure RT, I think that position is basically a starting ground for LT development. Kaczur's value increases too. I think we have a wink-wink deal with Light but one thing is for sure....we will find out very quickly if Light is in the plans.

 

[mgteich]

The deal needn't be a "wink-wink" deal. Light may have worked out a deal before the decert and has an agreement witht the team not to make it official until after the CBA is signed.

 

[supafly]

As I posted in the other thread, I think there's just as much uncertainty regarding Kaczur as there is with Light. I'm sure we'll find out on draft day (or possibly not if the pick is after rd 2), as I'm sure BB has a plan in place.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/739161-kaczur-patriots-headed-split.html

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

While I won't be shocked to see a first round OT, I do consider it unlikely.

I consider Carimi a bad fit. Castonzo seem to lack the run blocking power Scar likes in his starting tackles (Vollmer came out of Houston after having a "stellar" senior campaign as a drive blocker and SI's Dr. Z, prior to his health breakdown, considered Light the best run blocking LT in the NFL; Kaczur, for all people grumbled, was a major upgrade from Ashworth and Gorin) I think Scar and BB will find better prospects later in the draft.

One "RT only" to watch for is Central Florida's Jah Reid. In 2008 Vollmer was a C-USA 1st Team All-Conference selection by the coaches; in 2009 and 2010, Reid. At his Pro-Day Reid turned in agility numbers one tenth of a second slower than Vollmer's, his vertical is 29.5 (long time OL observers will note it's just shy of the magic 30" goal for NE OL), and his 10 splits are right there with Mankins, Light, and Kaczur. He was a projected 7th/UDFA pick for NFL Draft Scout, but he's now pushed up into the late 5th as a projection. Considering he's turning in a t-shirt & shorts performance nearly good as Castonzo, I'd skip the early OT and target this kid on Day Three.

Carpenter and Ziemba would also be a consideration for RT, or Carpenter could kick inside. There are several other late round/UDFA kids to consider too, many who are not as close to their ceilings as Castonzo appears to be.

If NE has to take an OT high, Solder has more upside and can probably be had later in the first - NE has the "luxury" of bringing him along slower with Kaczur and LeVoir to hold the line while he takes Swing Tackle reps. The biggest question I have about Solder, can he handle Coach Scarnecchia's tough love?

 

[supafly]

Off the topic of tackles, Box--what do you think of Watkins at OG? I know mgteich likes him, but I'm leery of BB taking someone who's turning 27 by the 6th game of the season. I just can't imagine him spending a high draft pick on him, unless he'd fall into halfway through the 2nd round...which is obviously extremely unlikely. I am curious to hear your opinion on the matter, specifics and stats aside, what do you think of taking someone who will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time they are hitting their peak? That's not to say that he couldn't contribute early, as I suspect he would, I'm just saying that he'd only play 3 seasons before turning 30. That's a lot different from taking A.Hernandez when he's 20. That just seems to be a major obstacle that I cannot seem to get past, regardless of his obvious beastly talent at OG. To me, it's a stretch when you are taking someone that high knowing that the pick is more for the immediate and shorter-term future, as opposed to 'building' for the future/next 10-12 yrs (hopefully). It's almost like trading the 1st rd pick for a free agent, yet there isn't even the 'given' knowing that he'll absolutely do well at the NFL level in the way that a free agent would.

Thoughts?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Off the topic of tackles, Box--what do you think of Watkins at OG? I know mgteich likes him, but I'm leery of BB taking someone who's turning 27 by the 6th game of the season. I just can't imagine him spending a high draft pick on him, unless he'd fall into halfway through the 2nd round...which is obviously extremely unlikely. I am curious to hear your opinion on the matter, specifics and stats aside, what do you think of taking someone who will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time they are hitting their peak? That's not to say that he couldn't contribute early, as I suspect he would, I'm just saying that he'd only play 3 seasons before turning 30. That's a lot different from taking A.Hernandez when he's 20. That just seems to be a major obstacle that I cannot seem to get past, regardless of his obvious beastly talent at OG. To me, it's a stretch when you are taking someone that high knowing that the pick is more for the immediate and shorter-term future, as opposed to 'building' for the future/next 10-12 yrs (hopefully). It's almost like trading the 1st rd pick for a free agent, yet there isn't even the 'given' knowing that he'll absolutely do well at the NFL level in the way that a free agent would.

Thoughts?

Age isn't that critical a factor for me in this case, though I agree it makes more sense to spend a late second or later on him. The problem I run into, his athleticism and power numbers from the Combine class him as a day three value based on what BB & Scar have spent draft picks on in seasons past. So, hype a kid based on a weak OG class, project him as high as round one, note that he's got the kind of agility numbers which "downgrade" the kind of O-line Scar and BB have been building with their early draft picks, and he's not even on my board anymore.

For comparison:
short shuttle: A = 4.62 ... B = 4.64
3-cone: A = 7.61 ... B = 7.66
vertical: A = 26" ... B = 31"
10 split: A = 1.82 ... B = 1.78

Mankins by comparison: 4.54, 7.54, 31.5", 1.85 (that is a first/second round OL athlete by Scarnecchia/Belichick standards -- Light and Vollmer are in the same class, Klemm has no numbers, but was a TE to OT conversion in college so we see how athletic he was ... if fragile).

B is projected at least half a round or more later in the draft, played in the SEC, and has started at both OT slots and RG, literally in the same season as he's plugged in where the match-up needed the help. And he's five years younger. I watched him one on one against Fairley, he held his own, enough that Fairley spent a lot of the game away from him abusing the LG.

 

[Wilfork#75]

For comparison:
short shuttle: A = 4.62 ... B = 4.64
3-cone: A = 7.61 ... B = 7.66
vertical: A = 26" ... B = 31"
10 split: A = 1.82 ... B = 1.78


B is projected at least half a round or more later in the draft, played in the SEC, and has started at both OT slots and RG, literally in the same season as he's plugged in where the match-up needed the help. And he's five years younger. I watched him one on one against Fairley, he held his own, enough that Fairley spent a lot of the game away from him abusing the LG.

I really think Clint Boling is a perfect fit at OG for the Pats, and I think he can be had in the 3rd round. Apart from his combine numbers, he is a tough, well tested and highly experienced player that really fits the Patriots mold. I would take him over Watkins any day. Carpenter in the late 2nd and Boling in the 3rd and you have the OG pairing for the Pats for the next decade.

 

[supafly]

Age isn't that critical a factor for me in this case, though I agree it makes more sense to spend a late second or later on him. The problem I run into, his athleticism and power numbers from the Combine class him as a day three value based on what BB & Scar have spent draft picks on in seasons past. So, hype a kid based on a weak OG class, project him as high as round one, note that he's got the kind of agility numbers which "downgrade" the kind of O-line Scar and BB have been building with their early draft picks, and he's not even on my board anymore.

For comparison:
short shuttle: A = 4.62 ... B = 4.64
3-cone: A = 7.61 ... B = 7.66
vertical: A = 26" ... B = 31"
10 split: A = 1.82 ... B = 1.78

Mankins by comparison: 4.54, 7.54, 31.5", 1.85 (that is a first/second round OL athlete by Scarnecchia/Belichick standards -- Light and Vollmer are in the same class, Klemm has no numbers, but was a TE to OT conversion in college so we see how athletic he was ... if fragile).

B is projected at least half a round or more later in the draft, played in the SEC, and has started at both OT slots and RG, literally in the same season as he's plugged in where the match-up needed the help. And he's five years younger. I watched him one on one against Fairley, he held his own, enough that Fairley spent a lot of the game away from him abusing the LG.

Thanks a lot Box, much appreciated. Always great analysis.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Belichick probably is planning around having Light in his back pocket. I fully think that Light will return for a reasonable offer as opposed to Mankins who will only return for a crazy good offer. Assuming that (about Light) is true, Belichick can draft an OT at his convenience should he like the value and not make an offer to Light or, if no OT is valued high enough, he can come back to Light. Light may have slightly more bargaining power then but unless Kaczur has been released by then, Belichick won't be scared off by that. Light, and those like him, are in a tough situation with the draft coming ahead of free agency if that's how it works out. Belichick could do this then lose out if he doesn't draft an OT and Light gets a monster offer from someone else but if the Patriots want him back they'll likely get him. And, worst case, Vollmer at LT with Kaczur at RT is (just) workable.

 

[VJCPatriot]

If NE has to take an OT high, Solder has more upside and can probably be had later in the first - NE has the "luxury" of bringing him along slower with Kaczur and LeVoir to hold the line while he takes Swing Tackle reps. The biggest question I have about Solder, can he handle Coach Scarnecchia's tough love?

I'd really like to get the Solder kid in here (with a late 1st). He's massive! Vollmer and Solder would be like a pair of black holes waiting to consume NFL defenders.

Carpenter is another guy on my Pats radar who I think would be a solid RT for us later on in the draft say in the 3rd round.

 

[cstjohn17]

If Belichick isn't planning on Light's return, I would expect an OT to be drafted by us in the top 21 picks. I would expect that we would use 66 or 74 to move from 33 for an OT. We would still have 28 or the trade down from 28 for a starting OG. Of course, #17 or thereabouts is still for our DE!

Obviously, my preference is not to need to use a 1st or 2nd rounder for an OT. Obviously, with Light and Vollmer (and possibly even Kaczur), the need (if any) is just for a backup, which can be has in the 3rd (e.g. Carpenter).

The trouble with any wink-wink deal is that there is a good chance that there is no free agency until after the draft. Best case is that the April 6th hearing leads to an injunction with forces the league to play under the 2010 rules. This would result in some sort of free agency prior to the draft. That is the best case.

Light has stated that he will test the market and views this as his last deal, he also stated that he won't take any home town discounts.

Unless the Patriots become risk oriented they should assume Light is gone. Vollmer is the obvious replacement at LT. Mankins may dig his heels in and sit for 1/2 the season which would leave the Patriots with a need for:

1. a starting RT
2. 1/2 season of a RG

These spots could be filled by the draft, free agency or my Kaczur (I view Kaczur as damaged goods but maybe he could grind out 1/2 the year)

I am fine with drafting a RT in round 1, look at Mankins. He is just a freaking guard and turned out to be a great draft pick. Nothing wrong with getting a 10 year starter with some probowl upside.
Gabe Carimi is my pick, reminds me of John Runyan.
Carimi profile

For a special bonus, here is Mankins profile from NFL Draft Scout:
Mankins profile

Ps. I loved their old rating system, they jumped the shark when they went to CBS.

Bonus # 2 - Vollmer profile
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/ratings/profile.php?pyid=33032