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Is 2022 the year the cap starts to bite KC

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skinnydog

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Dead Cap Hit2022 Cap hit% of cap
MahomesQB (92,173,524)$35,79338117.08
Chris JonesDT---($32,207,333)$29,415,667 14.04
Frank ClarkDE---($12,900,000)$26,300,000 12.55
Tyreek HillWR--($2,650,000)$20,685,000 9.87
Joe ThuneyG----($27,500,000)$17,800,000 8.50
Anthony HitchensILB--($4,223,750)$12,664,915 6.04
Travis KelceTE---($5,600,000)$8,855,872 4.23

I couldn’t copy it all neatly, but here is the 2022 cap hits for their 7 highest paid players courtesy of Sportstrac. Those 7 players account for about 62% of the Chiefs entire cap. Only Kelce is under a cap friendly contract. I know they can move some money around, but these are some huge cap hits and Mahoney cap hit only gets worse in years to come.

They’re currently are about 15 million under the cap, but they only have 38 players under contract. In contrast the Pats are only 7-8 million under the cap, but they have 56 players under contract already. They also have some key free agents like Matthieu and Ingram and Reed (DT) on defense. On offense Pringle and McKinnon are free agents. Based on this cap situation, I’m thinking they can only massage the cap hits for 1-2 years before the end up in a cap situation like the Saints.
 

doesntmatter1

In the Starting Line-Up
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
They will be fine. They can do without Clark and Hitchens if need be and turn towards the draft. I still don't quite understand why they spent so much on Thuney. Thuney is elite but he is a quard. I always question huge amounts on guards. I've never regretted our decision on Mankins and sometimes I think Mason isn't worth it as well.
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

High Priest at Team Bill's Temple
PatsFans.com Supporter
Here's what I suspect they'll do:
  • Restructure Mahomes (expect this to be an annual occurrence. This will reduce Mahomes cap number from $36M to $14M and frees up $22M. For everyone wondering why the hell they're able to do this, it's two things: (1) Mahomes was willing to take much, less signing bonus than other players and they were able to still guarantee it by spreading guarantees out over 10-years, and (2) it still will have long-term consequences. Basically, they're creating a "floor number" which becomes the minimum amount they'll owe him for the next five years due to deferred payments (much like how a credit card minimum amount increases the more you defer it). There's no way to again restructure, defer, offset, etc. Next year, when they restructure it again, the floor number is about $25M. It's still a good contract for the Chiefs, but keep in mind it gives Mahomes an unprecedented amount of leverage, and if things go south, it would get really ugly. This is a contract build on goodwill and mutual desire to remain together. That's likely why most teams are unwilling to do a contract like this...by continuing to restructure, you're creating more and more guaranteed money in future years, which in the NFL (a league where the opposite is true, and you want to hedge risk as a player gets older), this is risky.
  • Do something with Clark. I don't know what they'll do because it might be complicated by Clark's legal situation. But whatever it is, they're not going to be taking a $26M cap hit. They can either take half of it as a dead hit ($13) or extend/re-work his deal. I'm just going with the half-hit for now, so that's $13M in cap savings.
  • They could release Hitchens and save about $8M in cap space.
  • They could extend Hill to lower his $20M cap hit for 2022. There are a few other situations like that too.
But overall, let's just go with the Mahomes, Clark, and Hitchens moves. That saves them an additional $41M. Add that to their existence cap space, and they'll have about $55M. You have to keep in mind that the market for FAs is going up a lot, as the cap increases. They have guys like Mathieu and Brown who are expected to get big paydays. If they lose Clark and Hitchens, they need to replace them. And they're losing a whole bunch of role players.
 

TheRainMaker

Voted most handsome by my mother
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
I’d be more worried about how teams are slowing down their offense. And Mahomes running around has now backfired 2 years in a row. He flat out lost them the game yesterday.
 

Triumph

Hall of Fame Poster
Thuneys 17 mil cap hit has 14 mil in salary. Just convert that to signing bonus. There is at least a 7 - 10 million savings there.

Hills salary is nothing. His 20 mil cap his is all roster bonus. Last year of his contract and time to extend him converting the 16.5 mil roster bonus to be spread over the life of the extension.
 

tigerjohn

Practice Squad Player
Reid had a big hand in that too.
Reid, Mahomes and the offense need to rely on more than 4-6 second busted plays to move the ball. Mahomes and the offense need to be more efficient working within the system, taking what the defense gives them. The Bills has a similar issue in Game 1 against the Pats but killed the pats in game 2 by throwing dump off and check downs with designed Allen runs sprinkled in.

The Chiefs were lucky to win the super bowl in the one year it worked given they were down by multiple touchdowns in most of their playoff games and the 49ers had to **** the bed to give them the win.
 

skinnydog

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Thuneys 17 mil cap hit has 14 mil in salary. Just convert that to signing bonus. There is at least a 7 - 10 million savings there.

Hills salary is nothing. His 20 mil cap his is all roster bonus. Last year of his contract and time to extend him converting the 16.5 mil roster bonus to be spread over the life of the extension.
I get that there are things they can do, and I get that to a certain extent the cap is crap, but Hill will want a new contract and it won’t be small and his cap hit can only be extended so far. Yes Thuney can be extended, but my point is they can give themselves maybe 2 years, but they’ll then have to start cutting players and taking dead cap hits and will have to forego signing good players and be left with a roster with 4-5 good players and then a bunch of JAGS
 

Triumph

Hall of Fame Poster
I get that there are things they can do, and I get that to a certain extent the cap is crap, but Hill will want a new contract and it won’t be small and his cap hit can only be extended so far. Yes Thuney can be extended, but my point is they can give themselves maybe 2 years, but they’ll then have to start cutting players and taking dead cap hits and will have to forego signing good players and be left with a roster with 4-5 good players and then a bunch of JAGS
The Chiefs are winning because they have done a great job in the draft.

By the time they cut Hill, his drafted replacement will be on his rookie deal starting the "Salary caps gonna get you" mantra all over again. So, Im not buying that the Chiefs wont have options to avoid cap hell. Mahomes isnt stupid and will pull a Brady and adjust his contract to afford good players on the team.
 

Sciz

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
When is Kelce’s contract up?
He's under contract through 2025, age 36. Having to replace his production as he declines is going to be a bigger issue than anything related to his contract.
 

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