- Joined
- Jul 11, 2005
- Messages
- 15,518
- Reaction score
- 27,509
So this is what the OTHER 31 cities who have NFL teams feel like. For the first time since 2000 the Pats will not have a winning season. For the first time since 2000 the Pats will not be in playoff contention on the last game of the season. This is new territory for all of us in this oddest of odd years we are living through. Maybe it took a global pandemic to push the Pats out of the NFL playoff picture, aaaand maybe it was just time for a reset. So in this edition I'd not only like to review the pluses and minuses of this game, I'd like to begin the process of looking down the road to this off season, and what it's like to go into April and not be picking up the crumbs at the bottom of every round. So lets begin...in no apparent order.
1. What sucked:
a. I have no idea what's happened to Cam Newton. I can only fathom that this was the "cliff" that Max Kellerman was predicting for Tommy, only it happened so very quickly for a former MVP QB who has simply taken too many shots over the years. By ALL reports, he works hard, and is a smart guy, but his footwork and inaccuracy isn't worthy of an NFL starting QB. And while he cracked the 200 yd mark, he constantly missed open receivers, often threw a pass 5 yds over the LOS when he had an open receiver 10 yds downfield. And when he finally DID hit an open receiver in stride vois la, it turned into a 34 yd gain. Who would have thought. Imagine what might have been if he'd thrown more of his completions to in stride receivers.
His pocket presence is again almost non-existent. His escapability doesn't exist. Even his running is more like lumbering FB than someone like Mahomes, Watson, or Allen. Cam was getting caught from behind by DLmen. That would have never happened in his prime years when he was out running LB's.
b. I don't know what Bill was asked in his post game comments, but I'm sure SOMEONE had to ask if Cam was going to start next week. I will be interested in know what he said, because I don't see the point in putting him out there again for more of the same. It is now time to give Jared Stidham his 2 week tryout to establish if there is any reason to think he can be a long term starter in this league. And I say this knowing that it is really unfair to judge any player over just a 2 week timeframe. But fair or not, it's only common sense to get some film on the kid and start thinking about what your QB strategy is going to be for next season. More on that later
c. Run Defense - Think about it. Our run defense gave up 250 yds rushing to the worst run offense in the LEAGUE! Bottom line THIS was the main reason the Pats lost this game, and I'm not exactly sure why it happened. This is the same basic front seven that has controlled run games that are a LOT better than the Dolphins this year. Could it be that the early loss of JBentley really left THAT much of a hole in the defense. And while I thought the same front seven did an excellent job containing and pressuring Tua, they really sucked at run defense.
d. After a string of some very strong games, Chase Winovich was almost blanked on the stat sheet (0 tackles and 1 QB hit)
e What disturbed me the most while watching the toothless Phins run rampant over our run defense was the fact that we never made the adjustments needed to stem the tide and FORCE Tua to throw the ball. I can't recall another game where they didn't EVENTUALLY start to slow down a great running attack. It was almost as ugly to watch as Cam play QB.
f. 2 stats that don't get a lot of play, but are of critical importance to establish why a team wins or loses are: 1. time of possession and 2 the difference is the number of offensive plays. The Pats ran 39 offensive plays. The Dolphins ran 62. VERY very hard to win games with that kind of disparity.
g. I hated seeing Stephan Gilmore going down with an injury that will likely cause him to miss the next 2 games. There has been a lot of speculation that this was likely Gilmore's last game. I for one will hate to see that happen. If this turns out to be an ACL or MCL injury perhaps his market price will drop enough for him to stay here. He's been worth every penny he's gotten from the Pats
f. Does anyone know if JJWilliams was a healthy scratch this week. If he was I am truly disappointed. He was a binky of mine after I saw him several times at camp his rookie year. I thought he showed well in limited action that year covering big Wide outs and TE's. This season it seems that he just can't find a place with JJones, JCJackson, MCourty, and Gilmore ahead of him at CB, and McCourty, Philips, and Dugger ahead of him at S. But if he was a healthy scratch today that means he's fallen behind some guy named Bryant that I didn't even know was on the team. Not good.
Ever the optimist, here is what I liked:
a. I felt that by and large our 2 rookie 6th round pick OT's held up very well this week. It certainly wasn't perfect, but for the most part they gave Cam plenty of time to throw the ball (even on 2 of his sacks) and blocked well enough to help Sony run at over 7 ypc.
Now I'm not certain when or if Wynn is coming back, but he was, by all accounts, our best OLman this season before he was hurt, but it bodes well for an already elite OL, that Owenu and Herron have shown so well, so early. Having a good OL can mitigate a lot of other issues. I can only see this OL being very good for a while.
b. Harris has done such a great job running the ball, we seem to have forgotten that Sony Michel was coming off his best game as a Patriot when he got hurt, and the only thing we can complain about him today is that he probably didn't get enough touches,
c. The growth of Jacoby Myers - He seems to be getting better all the time. Too bad about the fumble in this game, but still he seems to be getting open more often though I felt Cam went to him a couple of times (at least) when he had open people further down the field, yet threw it to Meyers.
d. Another guy who's shown continued improvement this season is Nick Folk. He has really gotten into a great rhythm right now. Every kick seems to be straight with none of those pesky hooks and slices we saw early this season which seemed to occur even when he made the kick. Lets be frank, he's probably our offensive MVP.
e. Our special teams in general have been excellent recently. Baily has been superb punting for both length and accuracy. The coverage has been great on KO coverage to the point where they are trying to force the receiving team to return the ball and daring them to get it past the 25. Gunner has gained almost an Edelman like swagger on his returns. He's both more aggressive and confident at this point of the season. Much better than earlier in the season.
3. OK now that this is out of the way, I'd like start with an opinion and a discussion on what we should do this off season.
a. It is my opinion that we AREN'T entering a period of mediocrity and finally cracking under the mind numbing forces of the NFL forced mediocrity system. I think we can be a strong contender for the playoffs as early as next season. Here' why,.
1. We will have a very strong position in cap space AND draft capital going into this PARTICULAR off season. It will be a year when the Pats will have relatively a lot of cap space in a year when there will be a good number of teams who will be in deep in Cap space hell if the $175MM cap limit that being projected comes to pass. That will mean the Pats will be in decent shape to both resign their own FA's, while also being able to sign significant FA's from other teams.
That $175MM cap projection will result in a VERY deep FA class. So deep that it will likely lower the price of some very good players. It SHOULD be a buyer's market with a lot of good deals coming out of this class.
2. When I look at this team I see a lot of strengths. We SHOULD have an elite OL next season. My expectation will be that the Pats will allow Joe Thuney to test FA, like they have done with a of their players. Some go and some come back. My gut says they will offer Thuney a slightly discounted deal to him and hope the buyers market will put their deal in the ball park. I think he'll be back. But even if he doesn't return, I think the development of Herron and Owenu will bode will.
I see strength at the RB position with Michell White and Harris leading a strong group
3. The secondary will also be strong next season even if Gilmore goes elsewhere. Jackson looks like he going to be annual a pro bowl CB Jones is an excellent slot guy who plays bigger than he is. Williams I HOPE will get a shot at the rotation if Gilmore leaves. I think Jason McCourty will be upgraded in FA.
I LOVE the combination of DMcCourty to go along with Phillips and Dugger at S.
4. Now areas that we need to improve on are pretty much known by everyone, We need a redo at WR. We need to add a proven TE and hope Assiasi and Keene develop. We need a big run stopper in the middle and go back to the 3-4 Bill really wants to run, Guy, Wise, and Cowart are all guys who would be better suited to be 3-4 DE's, and while you can use Butler in the middle on passing downs, you really need a true thumper over the nose of the C. If I were Bill, I'd identify the best FA NT out there and sign him. And if he's not out there in FA, then Draft him early
5 The LB corps will immediately improve with the addition of Dante Hightower next season, but I'd love to have a true sideline to sideline athletic ILB to balance the thumper that HIghtower/Bentley are. Winovich, Simon and Uche will make a fine rotation of OLB;s
6. WR is a position that really needs speed. THAT would be first criteria when I'm looking for a WR. We need to draft a WR in one of the first 3 rounds and a one in FA But in the end, speed and explosiveness is what we need to surround our next QB We already have some guys with size.
7. Now to the elephant in the room. What should be our QB strategy.
a. Lets assume that Bill has already decided that Stidham is NOT the guy and we have to start from Scratch. That will mean that EVERY guy who has started more than a dozen games will immediately get linked to the Pats either in a trade or in FA. Get ready for that.
b. I've been going over some of the QB's who will be coming out this year an2 by all accounts there are only 2 "sure things" in this draft and they will go 1 and 2. Even if the Pats drop the next 2 games, they don't have the draft capital to move up that far AND the 2 teams that will be picking in those spots are NOT going to pass on those 2 guys. For that reason I don't want to draft a QB in any of the first 3 rounds. Just too risky. I don't see anyone beyond those top 2 guys that I'd risk a first round pick on. HOWEVER this is a guy that interests me that was rated #7 on the Walters site. Jamie Newman. This kid has good size and speed 6'4-230/4.6), and was supposed to be Georgia's QB this season, but opted out. This is a guy with a lot of raw talent that will slip in the draft because he didn't play this season. I'd love to pick him up in the 4th or the end of the 3rd. EVERY QB you draft, even ones in the first round, is a shot in the dark, so why not take a true shot in the dark with a kid like Newman.
c. Keep the culture - I want them to win these next 2 games, though Buffalo is playing REALLY well. And Josh Allen is proof that players DO improve over time in the NFL and first impressions are NOT always what you get over time. People forget that Brady WAS just a game manager until the end of the 2003 season IMHO.
BTW- those who will want the Pats to blow the Jets game to not only get a better draft position, but to keep the Jets from getting Lawrence. But what about this scenario. The Jets draft Lawrence and the Pats acquire Sam Darnold and turn into a winning QB here in NE. Now that's a scenario the Joker would appreciate.
Well we know the needs. Now we have to put some names to the positions we need to get to get back to the playoffs NEXT year.
1. What sucked:
a. I have no idea what's happened to Cam Newton. I can only fathom that this was the "cliff" that Max Kellerman was predicting for Tommy, only it happened so very quickly for a former MVP QB who has simply taken too many shots over the years. By ALL reports, he works hard, and is a smart guy, but his footwork and inaccuracy isn't worthy of an NFL starting QB. And while he cracked the 200 yd mark, he constantly missed open receivers, often threw a pass 5 yds over the LOS when he had an open receiver 10 yds downfield. And when he finally DID hit an open receiver in stride vois la, it turned into a 34 yd gain. Who would have thought. Imagine what might have been if he'd thrown more of his completions to in stride receivers.
His pocket presence is again almost non-existent. His escapability doesn't exist. Even his running is more like lumbering FB than someone like Mahomes, Watson, or Allen. Cam was getting caught from behind by DLmen. That would have never happened in his prime years when he was out running LB's.
b. I don't know what Bill was asked in his post game comments, but I'm sure SOMEONE had to ask if Cam was going to start next week. I will be interested in know what he said, because I don't see the point in putting him out there again for more of the same. It is now time to give Jared Stidham his 2 week tryout to establish if there is any reason to think he can be a long term starter in this league. And I say this knowing that it is really unfair to judge any player over just a 2 week timeframe. But fair or not, it's only common sense to get some film on the kid and start thinking about what your QB strategy is going to be for next season. More on that later
c. Run Defense - Think about it. Our run defense gave up 250 yds rushing to the worst run offense in the LEAGUE! Bottom line THIS was the main reason the Pats lost this game, and I'm not exactly sure why it happened. This is the same basic front seven that has controlled run games that are a LOT better than the Dolphins this year. Could it be that the early loss of JBentley really left THAT much of a hole in the defense. And while I thought the same front seven did an excellent job containing and pressuring Tua, they really sucked at run defense.
d. After a string of some very strong games, Chase Winovich was almost blanked on the stat sheet (0 tackles and 1 QB hit)
e What disturbed me the most while watching the toothless Phins run rampant over our run defense was the fact that we never made the adjustments needed to stem the tide and FORCE Tua to throw the ball. I can't recall another game where they didn't EVENTUALLY start to slow down a great running attack. It was almost as ugly to watch as Cam play QB.
f. 2 stats that don't get a lot of play, but are of critical importance to establish why a team wins or loses are: 1. time of possession and 2 the difference is the number of offensive plays. The Pats ran 39 offensive plays. The Dolphins ran 62. VERY very hard to win games with that kind of disparity.
g. I hated seeing Stephan Gilmore going down with an injury that will likely cause him to miss the next 2 games. There has been a lot of speculation that this was likely Gilmore's last game. I for one will hate to see that happen. If this turns out to be an ACL or MCL injury perhaps his market price will drop enough for him to stay here. He's been worth every penny he's gotten from the Pats
f. Does anyone know if JJWilliams was a healthy scratch this week. If he was I am truly disappointed. He was a binky of mine after I saw him several times at camp his rookie year. I thought he showed well in limited action that year covering big Wide outs and TE's. This season it seems that he just can't find a place with JJones, JCJackson, MCourty, and Gilmore ahead of him at CB, and McCourty, Philips, and Dugger ahead of him at S. But if he was a healthy scratch today that means he's fallen behind some guy named Bryant that I didn't even know was on the team. Not good.
Ever the optimist, here is what I liked:
a. I felt that by and large our 2 rookie 6th round pick OT's held up very well this week. It certainly wasn't perfect, but for the most part they gave Cam plenty of time to throw the ball (even on 2 of his sacks) and blocked well enough to help Sony run at over 7 ypc.
Now I'm not certain when or if Wynn is coming back, but he was, by all accounts, our best OLman this season before he was hurt, but it bodes well for an already elite OL, that Owenu and Herron have shown so well, so early. Having a good OL can mitigate a lot of other issues. I can only see this OL being very good for a while.
b. Harris has done such a great job running the ball, we seem to have forgotten that Sony Michel was coming off his best game as a Patriot when he got hurt, and the only thing we can complain about him today is that he probably didn't get enough touches,
c. The growth of Jacoby Myers - He seems to be getting better all the time. Too bad about the fumble in this game, but still he seems to be getting open more often though I felt Cam went to him a couple of times (at least) when he had open people further down the field, yet threw it to Meyers.
d. Another guy who's shown continued improvement this season is Nick Folk. He has really gotten into a great rhythm right now. Every kick seems to be straight with none of those pesky hooks and slices we saw early this season which seemed to occur even when he made the kick. Lets be frank, he's probably our offensive MVP.
e. Our special teams in general have been excellent recently. Baily has been superb punting for both length and accuracy. The coverage has been great on KO coverage to the point where they are trying to force the receiving team to return the ball and daring them to get it past the 25. Gunner has gained almost an Edelman like swagger on his returns. He's both more aggressive and confident at this point of the season. Much better than earlier in the season.
3. OK now that this is out of the way, I'd like start with an opinion and a discussion on what we should do this off season.
a. It is my opinion that we AREN'T entering a period of mediocrity and finally cracking under the mind numbing forces of the NFL forced mediocrity system. I think we can be a strong contender for the playoffs as early as next season. Here' why,.
1. We will have a very strong position in cap space AND draft capital going into this PARTICULAR off season. It will be a year when the Pats will have relatively a lot of cap space in a year when there will be a good number of teams who will be in deep in Cap space hell if the $175MM cap limit that being projected comes to pass. That will mean the Pats will be in decent shape to both resign their own FA's, while also being able to sign significant FA's from other teams.
That $175MM cap projection will result in a VERY deep FA class. So deep that it will likely lower the price of some very good players. It SHOULD be a buyer's market with a lot of good deals coming out of this class.
2. When I look at this team I see a lot of strengths. We SHOULD have an elite OL next season. My expectation will be that the Pats will allow Joe Thuney to test FA, like they have done with a of their players. Some go and some come back. My gut says they will offer Thuney a slightly discounted deal to him and hope the buyers market will put their deal in the ball park. I think he'll be back. But even if he doesn't return, I think the development of Herron and Owenu will bode will.
I see strength at the RB position with Michell White and Harris leading a strong group
3. The secondary will also be strong next season even if Gilmore goes elsewhere. Jackson looks like he going to be annual a pro bowl CB Jones is an excellent slot guy who plays bigger than he is. Williams I HOPE will get a shot at the rotation if Gilmore leaves. I think Jason McCourty will be upgraded in FA.
I LOVE the combination of DMcCourty to go along with Phillips and Dugger at S.
4. Now areas that we need to improve on are pretty much known by everyone, We need a redo at WR. We need to add a proven TE and hope Assiasi and Keene develop. We need a big run stopper in the middle and go back to the 3-4 Bill really wants to run, Guy, Wise, and Cowart are all guys who would be better suited to be 3-4 DE's, and while you can use Butler in the middle on passing downs, you really need a true thumper over the nose of the C. If I were Bill, I'd identify the best FA NT out there and sign him. And if he's not out there in FA, then Draft him early
5 The LB corps will immediately improve with the addition of Dante Hightower next season, but I'd love to have a true sideline to sideline athletic ILB to balance the thumper that HIghtower/Bentley are. Winovich, Simon and Uche will make a fine rotation of OLB;s
6. WR is a position that really needs speed. THAT would be first criteria when I'm looking for a WR. We need to draft a WR in one of the first 3 rounds and a one in FA But in the end, speed and explosiveness is what we need to surround our next QB We already have some guys with size.
7. Now to the elephant in the room. What should be our QB strategy.
a. Lets assume that Bill has already decided that Stidham is NOT the guy and we have to start from Scratch. That will mean that EVERY guy who has started more than a dozen games will immediately get linked to the Pats either in a trade or in FA. Get ready for that.
b. I've been going over some of the QB's who will be coming out this year an2 by all accounts there are only 2 "sure things" in this draft and they will go 1 and 2. Even if the Pats drop the next 2 games, they don't have the draft capital to move up that far AND the 2 teams that will be picking in those spots are NOT going to pass on those 2 guys. For that reason I don't want to draft a QB in any of the first 3 rounds. Just too risky. I don't see anyone beyond those top 2 guys that I'd risk a first round pick on. HOWEVER this is a guy that interests me that was rated #7 on the Walters site. Jamie Newman. This kid has good size and speed 6'4-230/4.6), and was supposed to be Georgia's QB this season, but opted out. This is a guy with a lot of raw talent that will slip in the draft because he didn't play this season. I'd love to pick him up in the 4th or the end of the 3rd. EVERY QB you draft, even ones in the first round, is a shot in the dark, so why not take a true shot in the dark with a kid like Newman.
c. Keep the culture - I want them to win these next 2 games, though Buffalo is playing REALLY well. And Josh Allen is proof that players DO improve over time in the NFL and first impressions are NOT always what you get over time. People forget that Brady WAS just a game manager until the end of the 2003 season IMHO.
BTW- those who will want the Pats to blow the Jets game to not only get a better draft position, but to keep the Jets from getting Lawrence. But what about this scenario. The Jets draft Lawrence and the Pats acquire Sam Darnold and turn into a winning QB here in NE. Now that's a scenario the Joker would appreciate.
Well we know the needs. Now we have to put some names to the positions we need to get to get back to the playoffs NEXT year.