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Idle thoughts: Jets week edition


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Big game coming up this week. Right now, next to the Bronco game, these 2 Jets games are going to be our toughest tests.

1. Most Pats fans feel that we have dominated the Jets since the 2010 season playoff game, even though there have been a lot close games and a loss or two. I have been among them, but I'm not this year. So keeping that in mind lets play an exercise in "what if". Lets decide if you had to pick a starter among the 2 teams 44 starters which individuals would you pick.

2. Offense - It would probably surprise some people that when you have to make that pick, the only 2 Pats that everyone definitely would pick would be Brady at QB, and Gronk at TE. You might have picked Volmer at RT, but he's likely to be playing LT this week, and the likely starter at RT will be a 2nd year player who was on the PS 10 days ago. We all like our WR's but Marshall, Decker will be everyone's picks over Edelman and Amendola, because so many pick individual talent over productivity, and while our guys are productive, their guys are clearly more individually talented.

3. On Defense, we might have the best DL we've had here since Seymour was traded, but it doesn't have nearly the talent of the Jets DL. Their DB depth is also much better than ours with Revis/Cromartie/Skrine. And while we are searching scrap heaps for CB depth, the Jets are using top 15 picks as situational depth. (Milner). I would pick McCourty, Collins and Hightower as my Pats starters over the Jets starters, but I'm not sure Hightower will be playing. So that is 4-5 out of 22, and more likely 4 if the injury front goes negative.

4. So I wonder. Why is it that the Pats are so often considered among the more talented teams by the national media when it clearly isn't the case. I would consider both the Jets and Bills have more talented individual players position by position within our own division, let alone other teams like the Bengals, Broncos, Packers etc.

5. I wish the distinction would be be made more by the mediots, that while the Pats are always among the best teams in the league, they are NOT among the most physically individually talented. They are the epitome of what a great football team should be. Good players, but a better TEAM......and they should be celebrated for being able to accomplish this feat. To often we honor great individual talent, while minimizing the effect of great teamwork. Everything is framed as being a battle between individual players, while the game itself is so geared to promote the VALUES and BENEFITS of teamwork. Those things used to be important in the country

Instead whining and excuse making is now something that is acceptable, and sustained excellence built on intelligence, effort, focus discipline and teamwork is to be feared and hated. There is only one good thing about being old. I won't have to live long enough to watch selfishness and self interest become the core value of this country and our government be sold to the highest bidder. (Well actually I WILL see that happen if I live until 11/2016)


6. Think about it. The team who has the best DL in the league, with the best starting CB's and deepest secondary, will play an excellent RT, who is playing only his 2nd game at LT since his rookie year. A middle rotation of an UDFA 3rd year player, a rookie UDFA, and a 4th round rookie OG (plus the best of the rookie OLmen is hurt). At RT we have our PS graduate and I haven't got a clue who HIS back up is. Does this seem even a little bit fair. Yet it has hardly been a point of mention for the mediots covering this game, and barely even the fans.

7. Between the beauty of the McDaniels' scheme, Brady's brilliance, and the overall coaching competence, everyone seems to just ASSUME that the Pats offense will just magically produce 30+ points, like its a constitutional right. And they might very well do just that, but the fact that it is even a possibility against this kind of adversary should be the major story of this week......and its barely a whisper.

8. Now it isn't all doom and gloom. Revis might take out one WR, but whoever is left is going to be a hard match up for Cromartie. Lewis will make it tough on the Jets LB's and Gronk is basically unfair to the league.

9. Bowles has been an agressive biltzer since he's had control of a defense with Az. His Jets team is leading the league this year as well at 50% of the time. Tom Brady is the best QB in the league at defeating blitzes. IIRC his QB rating is higher against blitzes than against base defenses. So while, teams have gotten to Brady in every game, The odds of Brady moving the ball against the blitz should be high, even with the no name OL. But this is game Brady is going to HAVE to be at his best.

10. For the conspiracy theorists, this is the perfect game for the NYJFL to throw a game the Jets way. Because the Jets will play aggressive man to man, the Pats are going to HAVE to bring out their crossing pattern game, and I won't be surprised to see, the officials will be looking of OPI. Watch for 2+ OPI calls go against the Pats this game, for some very weak looking calls that are being called no where else.

11. In there very entertaining "around league podcast" on the NFLN, the boys were asked in their mailbox segment, if you could take Brady and Bellechick, and the worst roster in the NFL, could you be a playoff contender? When they started to think about it, they came up with the Jags at first, and then when they thought about their WR's and Thomas at TE decided Brady might have better than what he has now. The same thing happened when they brought up the Buc's. The basic feeling was they wouldn't be playoff contenders, they'd be superbowl contenders. Then they made fun of resident Pats' fan, Greg Rosenthal, and his "throne of ease", because the Pats turn every move into a good one.

Do you agree? Brady and Bellichick and ANY current roster, are you an immediate winner? I do, but I'd have to add Josh to that equation. What do you think?

12. Chris Ivory IS one of the better RB's in the NFL this year. I have always liked him, even back when he was with the Saints. He's been a very productive runner for the Jets, and looks better this year. However with the addition of Hicks to go along with Siliga and Branch, I think the Pats have enough meat to keep the Jets running game under control.

13. I believe the Pats will win 65% of the 3rd and 7 or mores with the Jets, and the key to that will be stopping the Jets to under 2ypc on first down. It won't be easy. Having Hightower will be big. At least he's making an attempt to practice this week. However a rib is a hard thing to overcome and play a physical position like LB

14. This is the best team that Fitzpatrick has had around him in his career.....by far. I don't think he will ever be an elite QB, but he can be a successful one as long as he plays within his limits. He as always been streaky, and sometimes that brand of streaking can be good.....but too often bad. We don't know what the story will be on Sunday.

15. I don't recall how many times the Pats have swept the AFCE, but it hasn't been many, perhaps only 2 or 3. So beating a good team like the Jets will be more important because the game will be at home. Losing on Sunday will make winning in NJ even more difficult in December.

16. I don't see us putting 8 in the box to start the game. I feel Patricia will want to see if they can "control" the run game without opening up Decker and Marshal to our smaller DB's. I see us using 3 S's as our base

17. So while the Pats couldn't have the injury situation go worse the last 2 weeks, the Jets are in relative good shape, in fact I read somewhere that they are the 2nd healthiest team in the league at this point.
 
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I'm not willing to concede point 4 (or the 2 & 3 that led to it).

In my view, most all of the players on any NFL roster are extremely talented and skilled athletes. The differences are minuscule at most, with the differences in performance being mostly mental: desire, motivation, commitment, skill, technique, execution.

So I look at it as a useless exercise to try to decide who has the most talent, because it's like arguing whether an apple or an orange is more talented.

Then there is the difference that some players are more concerned with their own individual performance while others are more team oriented.

So it's really useless to try to decide who has the best collection of talent, and it can even be counterproductive when it leads to confusion between collecting talent and assembling a winning team.
 
Point 11, yes. But I'll go farther, and commit heresy. Take Belichick and his entire coaching staff and give them any roster in the league including the present QB and I think you have a winner. Not a Lombardi contender, but a winning record for a full season. Of course I also expect there will be some changes in the roster, as the cancers are cut out, but I don't think there would be all that many of them because by now the hoody will get automatic respect as the top dog, from pretty much any player in the league. And that's why I think he could win with any NFL QB.
 
Big game coming up this week. Right now, next to the Bronco game, these 2 Jets games are going to be our toughest tests.

1. Most Pats fans feel that we have dominated the Jets since the 2010 season playoff game, even though there have been a lot close games and a loss or two. I have been among them, but I'm not this year. So keeping that in mind lets play an exercise in "what if". Lets decide if you had to pick a starter among the 2 teams 44 starters which individuals would you pick.

2. Offense - It would probably surprise some people that when you have to make that pick, the only 2 Pats that everyone definitely would pick would be Brady at QB, and Gronk at TE. You might have picked Volmer at RT, but he's likely to be playing LT this week, and the likely starter at RT will be a 2nd year player who was on the PS 10 days ago. We all like our WR's but Marshall, Decker will be everyone's picks over Edelman and Amendola, because so many pick individual talent over productivity, and while our guys are productive, their guys are clearly more individually talented.

3. On Defense, we might have the best DL we've had here since Seymour was traded, but it doesn't have nearly the talent of the Jets DL. Their DB depth is also much better than ours with Revis/Cromartie/Skrine. And while we are searching scrap heaps for CB depth, the Jets are using top 15 picks as situational depth. (Milner). I would pick McCourty, Collins and Hightower as my Pats starters over the Jets starters, but I'm not sure Hightower will be playing. So that is 4-5 out of 22, and more likely 4 if the injury front goes negative.

4. So I wonder. Why is it that the Pats are so often considered among the more talented teams by the national media when it clearly isn't the case. I would consider both the Jets and Bills have more talented individual players position by position within our own division, let alone other teams like the Bengals, Broncos, Packers etc.

5. I wish the distinction would be be made more by the mediots, that while the Pats are always among the best teams in the league, they are NOT among the most physically individually talented. They are the epitome of what a great football team should be. Good players, but a better TEAM......and they should be celebrated for being able to accomplish this feat. To often we honor great individual talent, while minimizing the effect of great teamwork. Everything is framed as being a battle between individual players, while the game itself is so geared to promote the VALUES and BENEFITS of teamwork. Those things used to be important in the country

Instead whining and excuse making is now something that is acceptable, and sustained excellence built on intelligence, effort, focus discipline and teamwork is to be feared and hated. There is only one good thing about being old. I won't have to live long enough to watch selfishness and self interest become the core value of this country and our government be sold to the highest bidder. (Well actually I WILL see that happen if I live until 11/2016)


6. Think about it. The team who has the best DL in the league, with the best starting CB's and deepest secondary, will play an excellent RT, who is playing only his 2nd game at LT since his rookie year. A middle rotation of an UDFA 3rd year player, a rookie UDFA, and a 4th round rookie OG (plus the best of the rookie OLmen is hurt). At RT we have our PS graduate and I haven't got a clue who HIS back up is. Does this seem even a little bit fair. Yet it has hardly been a point of mention for the mediots covering this game, and barely even the fans.

7. Between the beauty of the McDaniels' scheme, Brady's brilliance, and the overall coaching competence, everyone seems to just ASSUME that the Pats offense will just magically produce 30+ points, like its a constitutional right. And they might very well do just that, but the fact that it is even a possibility against this kind of adversary should be the major story of this week......and its barely a whisper.

8. Now it isn't all doom and gloom. Revis might take out one WR, but whoever is left is going to be a hard match up for Cromartie. Lewis will make it tough on the Jets LB's and Gronk is basically unfair to the league.

9. Bowles has been an agressive biltzer since he's had control of a defense with Az. His Jets team is leading the league this year as well at 50% of the time. Tom Brady is the best QB in the league at defeating blitzes. IIRC his QB rating is higher against blitzes than against base defenses. So while, teams have gotten to Brady in every game, The odds of Brady moving the ball against the blitz should be high, even with the no name OL. But this is game Brady is going to HAVE to be at his best.

10. For the conspiracy theorists, this is the perfect game for the NYJFL to throw a game the Jets way. Because the Jets will play aggressive man to man, the Pats are going to HAVE to bring out their crossing pattern game, and I won't be surprised to see, the officials will be looking of OPI. Watch for 2+ OPI calls go against the Pats this game, for some very weak looking calls that are being called no where else.

11. In there very entertaining "around league podcast" on the NFLN, the boys were asked in their mailbox segment, if you could take Brady and Bellechick, and the worst roster in the NFL, could you be a playoff contender? When they started to think about it, they came up with the Jags at first, and then when they thought about their WR's and Thomas at TE decided Brady might have better than what he has now. The same thing happened when they brought up the Buc's. The basic feeling was they wouldn't be playoff contenders, they'd be superbowl contenders. Then they made fun of resident Pats' fan, Greg Rosenthal, and his "throne of ease", because the Pats turn every move into a good one.

Do you agree? Brady and Bellichick and ANY current roster, are you an immediate winner? I do, but I'd have to add Josh to that equation. What do you think?

12. Chris Ivory IS one of the better RB's in the NFL this year. I have always liked him, even back when he was with the Saints. He's been a very productive runner for the Jets, and looks better this year. However with the addition of Hicks to go along with Siliga and Branch, I think the Pats have enough meat to keep the Jets running game under control.

13. I believe the Pats will win 65% of the 3rd and 7 or mores with the Jets, and the key to that will be stopping the Jets to under 2ypc on first down. It won't be easy. Having Hightower will be big. At least he's making an attempt to practice this week. However a rib is a hard thing to overcome and play a physical position like LB

14. This is the best team that Fitzpatrick has had around him in his career.....by far. I don't think he will ever be an elite QB, but he can be a successful one as long as he plays within his limits. He as always been streaky, and sometimes that brand of streaking can be good.....but too often bad. We don't know what the story will be on Sunday.

15. I don't recall how many times the Pats have swept the AFCE, but it hasn't been many, perhaps only 2 or 3. So beating a good team like the Jets will be more important because the game will be at home. Losing on Sunday will make winning in NJ even more difficult in December.

16. I don't see us putting 8 in the box to start the game. I feel Patricia will want to see if they can "control" the run game without opening up Decker and Marshal to our smaller DB's. I see us using 3 S's as our base

17. So while the Pats couldn't have the injury situation go worse the last 2 weeks, the Jets are in relative good shape, in fact I read somewhere that they are the 2nd healthiest team in the league at this point.

Your "Idle Thoughts" are always great posts, but this one is especially insightful.
 
Very good post. This should be a great test for both teams.

A few things in the Patriots favor.

The Jets defensive philosophy and build is not a bad match for the Pats offense. The Jets like to cover well and stop the run and blitz. They are not built for quick pass rush and more like to collapse the pocket around you. This is not bad for an offense like ours. I think man on man there will be match ups that can work for us. Revis is possibly the best CB is the game right now but weaknesses have been showing up with him. He seems to have more trouble with quick guys then he use to. We have a lot of those. Also They don't have a player that can go man to man with Gronk. No one does. I expect Brady to test whoever is on him.

If they go zone Brady eats up zone no matter how good you play it. Dion Lewis will play I am sure and will be a key match up vs their big but kinda slow OLBs. They are a big D but they don't have a ton of speed in the front 7. Quick little guys might be the way to go and we have those.

I think we definitely have some areas we can attack and while this might be the best D in the league they are not the worst defensive match up for the Pats IMO.

On defense the key is no big plays. Fitz is not good enough to sustain long 12-15 play drives general so make him do that. Basically do what you have been doing and play your big nickle most of the time and give Brandon Marshall special attention while not forgetting about Decker.

Ivory is a very good back but just keep in your gap and don't let him break anything too big. The key to stopping good running teams is to make them run a lot. By that I mean Make Ivory get 4 yards, 5 yards 6 yards 3 yards 5 yards, ect.... Use up those carries. A RB is only good for so many a game (Denver basically ended Knowshon Monroe's career by having him run 40 times in one game against us. He was never the same after that. I don't think the Jets want to use Ivory that much and risk hurting him. They will run him 6-7 times a series max and rest him like usual. Like most teams do. I am not worried about their back up RB beating us. Now you force Fitzpatrick to make plays. He can't consistently.
 
In past seasons, I would go point by point mostly agreeing with you, Ken, while adding my own points. But I am loss at the political stuff in point 5. Nothing changed about the team nature of the game, nor politics.
 
Great post, and I agree with most of it, even if I wouldn't use such unreserved, overflowing language. You set up something of a false dichotomy between talent and team to describe what I think are simple truths regarding the strength of the Patriots sheme and ability to execute it.

On the specific points:

2. Edelman makes the list without question. He's more talented than either Jets TE or Tommy Bohannon. You show your age, lining-up talent in some hypothetical pro set or I formation. Also, claiming that Vollmer isn't the 2nd best tackle, because he'll be playing LT, is arbitrary and misleading.

3. Similarly, I'd take Jones as a 4th DL/OLB over any of the Jets LB. (If take Sheard there, too, but we don't get 5 line players. Butler could find his way onto the list as the 5th DB, too, so the talent disparity is not as bad as you portray, and some of those selections are close calls.

In short, you overstate your case, particularly when talent really only matters in how it affects matchups.

6. You point out the key talent matchup here. It's the primary reason to be concerned this week. (Of course, I had the same concern going up to Buffalo, so...

16. I completely disagree about the big nickel base. If ever there was a weekend for the base base, this is it. I expect to see a mix of man and zone to keep our CBs active in run support and keep Fitz off-balance.
 
The Jets have a talented roster for sure--I've actually thought before, swap QB and coaching and there's your Super Bowl favorite.

But....quarterback play is HUGE in this league. Coaching is HUGE in this league. It's like saying me and a buddy could beat Michael Jordon and some random guy playing two-on-two if I could just make one change to the teams.

QB and coaching changes everything. I think (it's early) the Jets have a decent head coach. The Pats obviously have the best ever. The Jets have a nobody at QB.

I think this game is a chance for the Pats' defense to shine. Truly hope Hightower & Sheard are healthy enough to be themselves. If so, I think this is one of those game that afterwards people say, "huh. I guess the gap between these teams wasn't as close as we thought."
 
Among many interesting matchups Sunday I would say one of them that has peaked my interest is whether Brady will avoid Revis altogether or he will pick his spots.

They practiced against one another for a year so the familiarity is there. Not really sure who got the best of who during all those practices?

Revis is great but we have seen inconsistencies in his game. Not many, but a few hiccups Here and there.

I would expect a back and forth battle between Revis and Edelman if they were matched up together and I'm not sure who would come out the clear winner. But if anyone has a chance to have success it would be the fast shift guy.

I would laugh if they put Revis on Gronkowski, that would be suicide in my opinion unless they dedicated a chip from a LB and safety help over the top. Even then, it just opens up other options for Lewis and the other Pats weapons.

I'm pretty confident the Pats are going to score more points than the Jets. At the end of the day we are not Cleveland,Miami or Washington. Although this is the game the Jets can prove they can play with the big boys. Bring it.
 
Let me see...IF both the Jets & the Bills have better "talent" than the Patriots, then what is our GM doing wrong managing the talent vs the competition?
 
16. I completely disagree about the big nickel base. If ever there was a weekend for the base base, this is it. I expect to see a mix of man and zone to keep our CBs active in run support and keep Fitz off-balance.

Agree here, especially on first down. Dare Fitz to throw early the the series. Hightower's health is a big factor, Mayo has really been struggling to shed blocks and fill against the run.
 
Let me see...IF both the Jets & the Bills have better "talent" than the Patriots, then what is our GM doing wrong managing the talent vs the competition?
I don't think our GM is doing anything wrong. The Bills and Jets have had many draft picks in the top ten in the last 15 years. They should have more talent. Most years that talent has been wasted due to poor coaching. Maybe the Jets finally found someone to manage that talent.
 
Good write up Ken. This should be a tough game but it is a game about match ups not comparing talent. The only glaring mismatch is their dl over our ol. Their dbs are real good but I take our tough wr and te bunch over any in the league, especially since they have had another year with Brady. I like our dl and our lbs are great, our dbs are good and safety play has been great. They have talented wrs but Ryan has done well against decker before and Malcolm should be able to limit Marshall some. I stopped being afraid of any team after the league dishonored Brady.
 
Very good post. This should be a great test for both teams.

A few things in the Patriots favor.

The Jets defensive philosophy and build is not a bad match for the Pats offense. The Jets like to cover well and stop the run and blitz. They are not built for quick pass rush and more like to collapse the pocket around you. This is not bad for an offense like ours. I think man on man there will be match ups that can work for us. Revis is possibly the best CB is the game right now but weaknesses have been showing up with him. He seems to have more trouble with quick guys then he use to. We have a lot of those. Also They don't have a player that can go man to man with Gronk. No one does. I expect Brady to test whoever is on him.

If they go zone Brady eats up zone no matter how good you play it. Dion Lewis will play I am sure and will be a key match up vs their big but kinda slow OLBs. They are a big D but they don't have a ton of speed in the front 7. Quick little guys might be the way to go and we have those.

I think we definitely have some areas we can attack and while this might be the best D in the league they are not the worst defensive match up for the Pats IMO.

On defense the key is no big plays. Fitz is not good enough to sustain long 12-15 play drives general so make him do that. Basically do what you have been doing and play your big nickle most of the time and give Brandon Marshall special attention while not forgetting about Decker.

Ivory is a very good back but just keep in your gap and don't let him break anything too big. The key to stopping good running teams is to make them run a lot. By that I mean Make Ivory get 4 yards, 5 yards 6 yards 3 yards 5 yards, ect.... Use up those carries. A RB is only good for so many a game (Denver basically ended Knowshon Monroe's career by having him run 40 times in one game against us. He was never the same after that. I don't think the Jets want to use Ivory that much and risk hurting him. They will run him 6-7 times a series max and rest him like usual. Like most teams do. I am not worried about their back up RB beating us. Now you force Fitzpatrick to make plays. He can't consistently.

Regarding Ivory and overuse, the Rats can turn to Ridley who could be active this week.

On a wet field, what could possibly go wrong using Ridley?

:rolleyes:
 
Great post, though you missed out on one of the areas where the Patriots should be favored - special teams. While punt and kick returners are too close to call, we have an elite Kicker and a top 5 punter, to go along with a special teams unit that covers the field better than any other. Of course the last point is predicated on Slater being available, however I think Ebner and Bolden, in particular, will lessen the impact of his absence.
 
Great post, though you missed out on one of the areas where the Patriots should be favored - special teams. While punt and kick returners are too close to call, we have an elite Kicker and a top 5 punter, to go along with a special teams unit that covers the field better than any other. Of course the last point is predicated on Slater being available, however I think Ebner and Bolden, in particular, will lessen the impact of his absence.

Pats have a newly discovered edge in kick-blocking too.
 
Ken-

I believe many miss the fact of how players are selected for the Pats roster. I would absolutely agree that many, on talent alone, are not the best in the NFL. What they have is a willingness to accept coaching, which is lacking in many NFL players. Putting Brady and Belichick on a team, even a very talented team stocked with high draft picks, would not guarantee success because they have to execute the plans. NFL teams can only go so far with players running their own personal agenda (thus the 2009 Pats story and how that played out).

Belichick has traditionally selected players with a diverse skill set (damage control for injuries), who are not loose cannons, committed to elevating their games, and who will embrace his system/coaching. That is not a turnkey operation in any way. It is a process taking place over years. The talent discussion was raised by Collinsworth during the Bears game last year, and the Bears have stood as a lesson on the concept of the "more talented" teams. There have not been many divas on the Pats, and those with those credentials have usually received the boot fast or embraced the team concept after years of losing.
 
16. I completely disagree about the big nickel base. If ever there was a weekend for the base base, this is it. I expect to see a mix of man and zone to keep our CBs active in run support and keep Fitz off-balance.

I think the big nickel is simply more effective with the players available to the team, especially if Hightower is out.
 
I'm not willing to concede point 4 (or the 2 & 3 that led to it).

In my view, most all of the players on any NFL roster are extremely talented and skilled athletes. The differences are minuscule at most, with the differences in performance being mostly mental: desire, motivation, commitment, skill, technique, execution.

So I look at it as a useless exercise to try to decide who has the most talent, because it's like arguing whether an apple or an orange is more talented.

Then there is the difference that some players are more concerned with their own individual performance while others are more team oriented.

So it's really useless to try to decide who has the best collection of talent, and it can even be counterproductive when it leads to confusion between collecting talent and assembling a winning team.
So basically you are saying the Andrews is the same as Mangold, etc? Now I have stated on many occasions that 90-95% of most NFL players are similarly athletically gifted. So I get what you are trying to point out (I think).

However when your OL started with 2 key injuries (Stork, Wendell). They had a huge disadvantage in having to play 3 rookies and a very inexperienced UDFA in the middle, and then within 2 games lose 2 of your top 3 OT's; you are likely to have a big problem on the OL.....even if you weren't playing the best DL in the league.

Given our system and coaching abilities, we could very well overcome the extraordinary adversity the last 2 weeks have brought upon us. And if it doesn't I think we can eventually deal with it as the season progresses. However what I still can't understand is the level that both the mediots and fans seem to be blithefully ignoring that it exists.
 
double Marshall and crowd the box

dump offs to RB's and TE's are not part of their game
 
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