I think that Mac is the last chance for Belichick.

[Real fan 02]

I'd have to agree albeit I didn't see it quite as "mediocre" as you say. Still, Jones is going to have to have both a terrific year while proving the needle is pointed up and it's probably going to have to include some "moments" this year to instill long-term confidence to warrant that type of potential salary. I've been a supporter of his, but I do feel like that's the one thing that's been missing. He's going to need a few of them next year, along with obviously a playoff run that will also require a victory, preferably one that is due to his play and not in spite of it. Otherwise, they may just view the economics of it and move on.

Ian,

Here's what I think in my honest humble opinion.. I believe Mac will play well and look closer to 2021 maybe better due to him being in the league 3 years with that experience. I believe if he does play at an elite level rather than pick up his option the team will trade him all be it them knowing they have zappe on a cheap rookie deal. That's just my opinion.

I feel they will exhaust everything in thier power not to have to pay the going price for good QB play.. if the GOAT couldn't get the drew Brees contract then.....

 

[1960Pats]

Absolutely agree. BB is riding out the storm. It was inevitable that the post-GOAT era would elicit opportunism from the longsuffering "other three" in the AFCE.

Building up the D to deal with the growth of Josh (he has a lot to prove and is running out of time...never even been to the SB), the maturing of Tua (jury is definitely still out, but he's worth the Fins' bet on him) and the arrival of AAAron (a true wild card, who's more likely to cash out after leading the Jets to a one-and-done in the Wild Card round than a game in February, but it will be an interesting "ride" for a season or two...plus he collects his $60 million and avoids having to share the Canton stage with TB12 in five years).

PS: when are we all going to get through our grieving process and admit it was a case of Brady and Belichick, not a question of Brady or Belichick, which gave the Franchise all that success?
PPS: Mac deserves the shot. BB won't be fired on his account or for any FB reason. Zappe should be in the mix, but they're probably still looking for their Franchise QB...the GOAT was and remains irreplaceable.

Of course it was both of them and they both were lucky and knew it. Bill got the perfect QB for his authoritative style and Tom got the benefit of Bill's X's and O's. I think the problems come when we try to quantify that success. There was a thread here many moons ago that asked for a % breakdown between Brady, Bill and Bob for their contribution to the team's success.

There's also the added question of why Bill didn't want Tom to stay if he felt like they were such a great team. Is it possible that the rumors were true and Bill thought that he could win without Tom?

If Tom and Bill both feel like they helped each then they should want to share their HOF inductions in some way.

 

[duc359]

Brady and Zappe

But Bledsoe and Jones are eerily similar. Both are reactionary passers.

Bledsoe had a cannon, and could hit the deep out as well as any QB I've seen. Mac is more mobile, has a lesser arm. Both like most QB's like a clean pocket and guys that can get to spots and make catches. Not buying.

Mac is much more like a 2004 or 2008 Chad Pennington

 

[upstater1]

This thread is an amazing example of how something fairly innocuous - that a 70+ year old coach is in the twilight of his career and needs the current QB to work out for one last chance at a championship run - is turned into something controversial. There's no argument to be had here. At most, one might say, "I think he's going to coach for more years than that."

The best thing in this thread is the potential gold mine in the talent at HBCU schools. That's worthy of a thread in itself. Given that NFL teams spend hundreds of millions of dollars every year on talent acquisition and retention, I'd think a smart one would hire a couple of scouts just for that purpose.

I think people are disagreeing with the premise. I know I am. You're saying there's no argument. I say, there is.

 

[Rob0729]

I get the point he's making, but I also agree on what you're saying. Not-so-great QBs have won Super Bowls (even Brady was beaten by one, albeit, the storyline with that one remains irritating), although the majority of winners have mostly been elite names.

Again, the only problem is those guys don't grow on trees, and it's not like Belichick overlooked an elite quarterback in lieu of Mac. He was the best available at the time post-Brady and the best there has been available to them since. One would believe they'll continue drafting until they stumble upon a Jimmy Garoppolo-esque player, but the elites are just few and far between. People can get mad that there isn't one on the roster, but the reality is what it is. Lamar Jackson, who people wanted to give up two firsts for, will be out of football at the rate he's going since Josh Allen freely admitted this offseason that his own style of play isn't sustainable.

Should Belichick have ridden Brady out until the end? Absolutely, and I still feel that way. But he didn't, and I guess it's a moot point. He lasted three more seasons and it's over.

Belichick is the reason the bottom hasn't dropped out, and why they've at least won 7,10,8 games since Tom left. But they've at least put together a defense that can deal with keeping things close, even the best teams in the league. The only question is going to be whether or not Bill O'Brien can fix the rest and get the offense back to the point where they're at least scoring points at the same clip they did three years ago when they went over 40 three times, including 50+ twice. If they can do that, they should at least get back into the mix.

I still don't get how there are so many people who think the Pats could just trade away Jones and draft an elite QB.

Jones was supposed to be that elite QB. And so far he isn't. Jones' draft so far has only produced one QB that might be elite out of the five that were selected in the first 15 picks.

I remember a lot of people saying the Pats should draft any of the five QBs drafted in 2021 because they all were going to be great to elite QBs because they were rated so high. But that was never going to happen. Even the QB of 1983 produced several first round clunkers in Todd Blacklidge and Tony Eason.

 

[upstater1]

I get the point he's making, but I also agree on what you're saying. Not-so-great QBs have won Super Bowls (even Brady was beaten by one, albeit, the storyline with that one remains irritating), although the majority of winners have mostly been elite names.

Again, the only problem is those guys don't grow on trees, and it's not like Belichick overlooked an elite quarterback in lieu of Mac. He was the best available at the time post-Brady and the best there has been available to them since. One would believe they'll continue drafting until they stumble upon a Jimmy Garoppolo-esque player, but the elites are just few and far between. People can get mad that there isn't one on the roster, but the reality is what it is. Lamar Jackson, who people wanted to give up two firsts for, will be out of football at the rate he's going since Josh Allen freely admitted this offseason that his own style of play isn't sustainable.

Should Belichick have ridden Brady out until the end? Absolutely, and I still feel that way. But he didn't, and I guess it's a moot point. He lasted three more seasons and it's over.

Belichick is the reason the bottom hasn't dropped out, and why they've at least won 7,10,8 games since Tom left. But they've at least put together a defense that can deal with keeping things close, even the best teams in the league. The only question is going to be whether or not Bill O'Brien can fix the rest and get the offense back to the point where they're at least scoring points at the same clip they did three years ago when they went over 40 three times, including 50+ twice. If they can do that, they should at least get back into the mix.

Agree with all this, but to be fair I was answering on the possibility of getting to the Super Bowl, not winning one.

Heck, Eli Manning to me was never really a top QB. He showed up and (I can't even say he played well) got lucky.

 

[upstater1]

I still don't get how there are so many people who think the Pats could just trade away Jones and draft an elite QB.

Jones was supposed to be that elite QB. And so far he isn't. Jones' draft so far has only produced one QB that might be elite out of the five that were selected in the first 15 picks.

I remember a lot of people saying the Pats should draft any of the five QBs drafted in 2021 because they all were going to be great to elite QBs because they were rated so high. But that was never going to happen. Even the QB of 1983 produced several first round clunkers in Todd Blacklidge and Tony Eason.

I feel exactly this way. I don't want to become the Jets, Phins and Bills with their situations. These teams spent an incredible amount of resources always trying to find a stud QB. Each team spent so many 1st round picks.

Seattle just signed Geno Smith to a huge contract! The Chargers tossed over Drew Brees and took Philip Rivers, when they could've paired Brees with Larry Fitzgerald or they could've taken Sean Taylor.

That doesn't mean the Patriots can't evaluate Mac Jones in the next 2 years and determine they need a new direction, but they shouldn't move on from him because he's merely a good QB (10-17 in the league) and not a great one.

 

[duc359]

I still don't get how there are so many people who think the Pats could just trade away Jones and draft an elite QB.

Jones was supposed to be that elite QB. And so far he isn't. Jones' draft so far has only produced one QB that might be elite out of the five that were selected in the first 15 picks.

First round QB's are a crap shoot. Nobody over the age of 15 should believe that if we trade Mac, and move up to get a 2nd or 3rd pick in '24 and get a QB, that this guy is automatically going to be elite. It would be the buzz, it would be the hope, it isn't a slam dunk either way.

Jones was 5th of 5. He is no worse than the 3rd of 5 today. Statistically he could be 15/30 this year, pretty good for the contract this year. If his ceiling is #9, and he costs $35M per in his next deal, I would say - get back into the lottery. If you could talk him into say $20M, then maybe keep.

But the idea that ones wish for an elite QB post Brady are automatically met by a 15th pick, or even a 2nd pick, are a given is - just wrong.

 

[Ian]

I feel exactly this way. I don't want to become the Jets, Phins and Bills with their situations. These teams spent an incredible amount of resources always trying to find a stud QB. Each team spent so many 1st round picks.

Seattle just signed Geno Smith to a huge contract! The Chargers tossed over Drew Brees and took Philip Rivers, when they could've paired Brees with Larry Fitzgerald or they could've taken Sean Taylor.

That doesn't mean the Patriots can't evaluate Mac Jones in the next 2 years and determine they need a new direction, but they shouldn't move on from him because he's merely a good QB (10-17 in the league) and not a great one.

16-15 over two seasons as a starter. (10-7 in 2021, 6-8 last season)

 

[moosekill]

Brady and Zappe

But Bledsoe and Jones are eerily similar. Both are reactionary passers.

Kind of funny, but I never really thought of this until you mentioned it. Honestly in his first year there didn't seem to be a comparision. Last year, however, minus the big arm, Mac did seem to make quite a few of the slap your head, WTF were you thinking passes Drew was famous for. I personally think that is what completely drives Bill crazy, sort of like running back fumbles. Hopefully that changes this year, otherwise Mr Zappe will be starting.

 

[Ian]

Ian,

Here's what I think in my honest humble opinion.. I believe Mac will play well and look closer to 2021 maybe better due to him being in the league 3 years with that experience. I believe if he does play at an elite level rather than pick up his option the team will trade him all be it them knowing they have zappe on a cheap rookie deal. That's just my opinion.

I feel they will exhaust everything in thier power not to have to pay the going price for good QB play.. if the GOAT couldn't get the drew Brees contract then.....

I agree, and I wrote something yesterday basically saying he needs to be great and have more "moments" this season. They won't pay him top money for "good" and I think his future honestly hinges on him going out and making some real meaningful plays in the coming months on a consistent basis. And he really needs to start leaving no doubt with his play.

The Giants paid Daniel Jones for "good." Given everything we've seen, as I said, I kind of agree, I don't think Belichick will. I think they'd move him before they'd pay him if he doesn't finally at least elevate himself to the next level.

 

[duc359]

Kind of funny, but I never really thought of this until you mentioned it. Honestly in his first year there didn't seem to be a comparision. Last year, however, minus the big arm, Mac did seem to make quite a few of the slap your head, WTF were you thinking passes Drew was famous for. I personally think that is what completely drives Bill crazy, sort of like running back fumbles. Hopefully that changes this year, otherwise Mr Zappe will be starting.

First 5 games of '22 (sanwhiched around his injury) he was under siege. He threw 7 Ints (3 TD, 71 QBR). The following 8 games he threw 1 (7 TD, 91 QBR). It's typical for people to make judgements, and then keep them.

Using a favorite example of this - Going back to the Jim Rice vs Dwight Evans case. If Evans had his offensive years early like Rice, and not had his best year cut short by a strike, he not Rice would be seen as the better player - which he clearly was by almost every measure - but the rep was established early - big glove, meh bat. Meanwhile Rice only had 2 really good years after age 27, 8 more meh.

 

[1960Pats]

I literally listed guys who made the Super Bowl with their teams.

I mean, FACTS can't be wrong. I listed the guys in the Super Bowls.

Nor did I say HOF QBs don't help you get to the Super Bowl.

I didn't even say these were bad QBs.

I think you're making up things.

You did not list the QBs who made the SB. You listed QBs you claimed were below average to bad.

If you want the truth all you need to do is look back at what happened like I did. You can go back as far as you want but half of the Pats SB wins were in the previous seasons as well as Manning and Big Ben wins. It could actually be worse than it has been for the last 15 years.

 

[upstater1]

16-15 over two seasons as a starter. (10-7 in 2021, 6-8 last season)

I can see how confusing my post was. I meant the 10th through 17th ranked QB in the league. I was trying to convey good to mediocre QBs.

I believe those in the 20s are just temporary placeholders

 

[upstater1]

You did not list the QBs who made the SB. You listed QBs you claimed were below average to bad.

If you want the truth all you need to do is look back at what happened like I did. You can go back as far as you want but half of the Pats SB wins were in the previous seasons as well as Manning and Big Ben wins. It could actually be worse than it has been for the last 15 years.

I did list QBs who made the Super Bowl.

That was the entire point of the list.

Why are you so confused about this?
All those QBs made the Super Bowl, and some won it.

 

[upstater1]

I agree, and I wrote something yesterday basically saying he needs to be great and have more "moments" this season. They won't pay him top money for "good" and I think his future honestly hinges on him going out and making some real meaningful plays in the coming months on a consistent basis. And he really needs to start leaving no doubt with his play.

The Giants paid Daniel Jones for "good." Given everything we've seen, as I said, I kind of agree, I don't think Belichick will. I think they'd move him before they'd pay him if he doesn't finally at least elevate himself to the next level.

Consider me someone who is still very doubtful about Daniel Jones! I do not think he is a winning team's QB.

That being said, there are examples of QBs who did not take top dollar in the past. Mac should be satisfied with mid-tier dollars, if that's what he is. Because the alternative to earning $20-$25m per can very easily become earning $7m per.

 

[Real fan 02]

I agree, and I wrote something yesterday basically saying he needs to be great and have more "moments" this season. They won't pay him top money for "good" and I think his future honestly hinges on him going out and making some real meaningful plays in the coming months on a consistent basis. And he really needs to start leaving no doubt with his play.

The Giants paid Daniel Jones for "good." Given everything we've seen, as I said, I kind of agree, I don't think Belichick will. I think they'd move him before they'd pay him if he doesn't finally at least elevate himself to the next level.

That is right, Daniel jones was about to be literally out of the league before QB whisperer Daboll rehabbed him. Mac's team has to be using D.Jones as barometer for when his options up.

The team has never paid the going rate for QBs we had the GOAT and he constantly took less. So I'm convinced they are spoiled with that. I'll agree Mac needs to make it emphatically known he the guy be it here or someplace else.

 

[Real fan 02]

Consider me someone who is still very doubtful about Daniel Jones! I do not think he is a winning team's QB.

That being said, there are examples of QBs who did not take top dollar in the past. Mac should be satisfied with mid-tier dollars, if that's what he is. Because the alternative to earning $20-$25m per can very easily become earning $7m per.

The goal should always be winning.. if we can get back to winning then it would be no doubt about if Mac is the guy. Typically winning would mean solid QB play. The team knows more than anyone what Mac's strengths, abilities and the like.

He is entering his 3rd year the kids hungry, I'm sure he wants to get that bad taste out his mouth from last season.

 

[crawhammer]

So Belichick isn't lasting 3 more years, and is coaching 3 more years tops. Huh?

He's not lasting "3-4 more years" which was the original timeframe given. I said 3 at most, which is different.

You listed most of the starting QB's in the league as "good to above average" or higher. That simply isn't possible. A bell curve is a bell curve, and "mediocre" by definition means "average" so it is immutable that most of the QB's in the league are mediocre. If every QB in the league suddenly got 50% better, the percentage of them that are mediocre wouldn't change. It would still be the majority.

Well I suppose if we're being mathematically precise then yes there's a mean. Which is always changing since we're dealing with fluid data. So yes, when I rank all 32 starting QB in the NFL then someone is going to place 16th. But theoretically if every QB was as talented as Josh Allen then you're ranking 32 elite caliber QBs. Mediocre (i.e. of only moderate quality; not very good) doesn't apply.

I consolidated my original tiers per Ian's suggestion and ended up with 6 (top), 14 (middle), and 12 (bottom). I wasn't being scientific or using a set formula. I could have labelled the middle grouping differently, by eliminating the word 'average' and instead calling it 'good to very good.' That would mostly resolve the issue. However, I would not classify any of the top 20 QBs as mediocre. Likewise I wouldn't classify any of the bottom 12 as good to very good.

 

[Triumph]

Bledsoe had a cannon, and could hit the deep out as well as any QB I've seen. Mac is more mobile, has a lesser arm. Both like most QB's like a clean pocket and guys that can get to spots and make catches. Not buying.

Mac is much more like a 2004 or 2008 Chad Pennington

Yes, but Bledsoe waited for the play to open up before passing.

Jones is the same.

Brady was anticipatory in his passing.