I did all the math and came up with 3.3x the Osweiler trade. The issue is that the Browns were fortunate that the Texans were, in fact, very bad so the future 2nd was 35th overall. You can’t possibly take that risk with a future 1st when the pick loses half its value falling from 3rd to 14th. I also don’t think this is entirely linear, as it should cost more per dollar if you’re trying to dump more money at one time.
So I’m just going to go with present 1st, approximately 5th overall or a hair lower.
In theory Watson should have value on a minimum salary contract, but I think that‘s negligible if anything at this point because Watson has been playing not a whole lot better than what you’d expect from a minimum salary QB.