How To Blow the 2024 Draft

[Force Zero Boomer]

Mg, I’m more than happy to answer any questions you have, but they can’t be as long as War and Peace.

Your response was as long as W&P, haha. Just kidding, bro -- I enjoyed your take.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

The draft is already blown thanks to a pathetic FA period. By failing to secure a decent, starting caliber QB on the FA market the Patriots now almost have to gamble on QB at #3. By failing to secure some decent WRs and OLs, the Patriots have to somehow get some bluechip WRs and OLs in the draft after possibly wasting the pick at #3 on a QB. If they do not, their shiny, new QB will be runnig for his life and have no one to throw to. The offseason has been a disaster that cannot be fixed by the draft unless they pull of some sort of miracle. BTW, they also let Pharoah Brown go and Malik Cunningham go; I know you guys don't care about them, but it further weakend a weak team.

 

[cstjohn17]

Statistically speaking they have already lost, likely less than a 15-20% chance a QB at 3 becomes a league average starter.

Maybe they get lucky but worst case is they tread water around .500 for years and never get another crack at a top QB.

Here is for a draft Powerball!

 

[XLIX]

I could take the time to demonstrate how few 4+ round QBs have become starters, let alone "great" QBs. The chances that you will get a great one in late rounds or even in the 4th (I was being nice to you giving you a middle round, the 4th -- you could have also cited Kirk Cousins, although he is only marginally good) is tiny, and not something you should bank on should your team need a franchise QB. That's the main point here, and I am right. Trading down only makes sense if you can get your QB in the early rounds, and banking on hitting the late round lottery is foolish.



Yep, I moved them first to help you, and now I'll move them back again to where this conversation started. FIFTH ROUND OR LATER. Fourth is literally the middle round. Btw, Allen has double the rushing yards of Dak in 20 fewer games while posting similar passing stats. Allen's QB rating in the playoffs is 106, while Dak's is 88, and that is the most important difference between the two: when it's playoff time, Allen is at his best. That's greatness. Dak's biggest issue has always been the playoffs, which makes him good, not great.

“I challenge you to show a QB from the 4th round or later!!” FZB

“Ok here you go…” me

“I know I said 4th round but that didn’t count!! It has to be FIFTH round or later!!!”

 

[XLIX]

Statistically speaking they have already lost, likely less than a 15-20% chance a QB at 3 becomes a league average starter.

Maybe they get lucky but worst case is they tread water around .500 for years and never get another crack at a top QB.

Here is for a draft Powerball!

The best way to help the QB is with a generational WR

 

[XLIX]

Statistically speaking they have already lost, likely less than a 15-20% chance a QB at 3 becomes a league average starter.

Maybe they get lucky but worst case is they tread water around .500 for years and never get another crack at a top QB.

Here is for a draft Powerball!

Draft a QB and we’re in the Arch Manning sweepstakes baby!!! 2027 #1 pick!!

 

[Ivan]

Your response was as long as W&P, haha. Just kidding, bro -- I enjoyed your take.

My request to Mg was to keep questions shorter, the rest was just laying out exactly where I stand on the topic, to try to cover as much as possible succinctly.

 

[Ivan]

Statistically speaking they have already lost, likely less than a 15-20% chance a QB at 3 becomes a league average starter.

Maybe they get lucky but worst case is they tread water around .500 for years and never get another crack at a top QB.

Here is for a draft Powerball!

It’s closer to 30% with high first round picks. And if we are doing odds then Mac Jones should be included as a miss, which makes it it 1 out 2, as they already spent 30% on a miss. Although 15 isn’t really high. However since it isn’t poker all that really matters is whether they get the evaluation and the pick right. Not every pick has the same weight.

And for those who think it’s just odds then they should be spending their first on a QB every year, as eventually you will get the right one. And it doesn’t make sense to stop trying, because you aren’t going to ever win a Lombardi without one.

 

[Keep Up With The Joneses]

It’s closer to 30% with high first round picks. And if we are doing odds then Mac Jones should be included as a miss, which makes it it 1 out 2, as they already spent 30% on a miss.

The Pats have put themselves in an awful position where they have so many holes it almost doesn't matter if they draft QB or WR, it will be a likely major improvement over other alternatives on the current roster.

I will nitpick at your statistical statement. The odds of hitting on the QB don't go up from 30 to 50% because they already screwed up with Mac. That's like saying if the last flip was heads the next one has less than a 50% chance of being heads. They are independent events and don't impact each other.

 

[Ivan]

The Pats have put themselves in an awful position where they have so many holes it almost doesn't matter if they draft QB or WR, it will be a likely major improvement over other alternatives on the current roster.

I will nitpick at your statistical statement. The odds of hitting on the QB don't go up from 30 to 50% because they already screwed up with Mac. That's like saying if the last flip was heads the next one has less than a 50% chance of being heads. They are independent events and don't impact each other.

If “ the odds mattered then everyone would take a QB with the 199th pick, as that’s the most likely one to win you 6 Super Bowls. The odds are completely irrelevant, the only thingy that matters is their evaluations. You guys act like it’s the same as blindly picking cards out of a deck. It is, by far, the stupidest argument of them all.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

If “ the iddd” mattered then everyone would take a QB with the 199th pick, as that’s the most likely one to win you 6 Super Bowls. The odds are completely irrelevant, the only thingy that matters is their evaluations. You guys act like it’s the same as blindly picking cards out of a deck. It is, by far, the stupidest argument of them all.

I've said elsewhere that the draft is a lot like Texas Hold'em, a game of skill & luck. Even if you have great skill at evaluation (judging the odds of your own cards relative to the state of the table and reading opponents), part of the state that you can't see (some bit of information about a player that is unknown or unknowable -- the Flop, Turn or River cards) can make all the difference. If it falls in your favor, you've won and now have a better than average or elite starter. If not, there's always next year/hand.

The Patriots have a good hand this year (let's say A-Q suited): they better not fold and draft a WR.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Statistically speaking they have already lost, likely less than a 15-20% chance a QB at 3 becomes a league average starter.

Maybe they get lucky but worst case is they tread water around .500 for years and never get another crack at a top QB.

No, the worst case is much worse than that. The worst case is that they waste the #3 pick on the next Ryan Leaf/Jamarcus Russell and then miss out on some blue chip WRs and OLs.

As it stands now, the Patriots are worse than the 4-win team from last year. If they muff the draft, especially the pick at 3 then they become the new NFL basement dweller.

 

[Salsalife]

(It's official: for the first time in 23 years, the New England Patriots will finish a season in last place in the AFC East. Losing 27-21 to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday sealed their fate and solidified them in the fourth spot in the divisional standings.) We don't need a qb this year we need weapons !

 

[Keep Up With The Joneses]

If “ the odds mattered then everyone would take a QB with the 199th pick, as that’s the most likely one to win you 6 Super Bowls. The odds are completely irrelevant, the only thingy that matters is their evaluations. You guys act like it’s the same as blindly picking cards out of a deck. It is, by far, the stupidest argument of them all.

You brought up the odds, I merely responded. Nowhere in my post did I suggest success was merely a matter of statistics. All I did was correct your statement. Zero interest in fighting on a message board. What they've done in the past has no bearing on the chances of their pick hitting. That is much more contingent upon them drafting well, developing well, and surrounding the player with the tools needed to succeed. Brady got all of those things, plus the extra added bonus in that he had a maniacal desire to win and work ethic. Those things can't be statistically accounted for.

 

[JohnJH]

The Patriots coming out of this draft with Jayden Daniels as QB will be a way to Blow This Draft. I fully expect the outright hate, however, if I'm proven wrong, I will unlike others, admit it.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

No, the worst case is much worse than that. The worst case is that they waste the #3 pick on the next Ryan Leaf/Jamarcus Russell and then miss out on some blue chip WRs and OLs.

As it stands now, the Patriots are worse than the 4-win team from last year. If they muff the draft, especially the pick at 3 then they become the new NFL basement dweller.

But you have to go for a QB when you are picking high (EDIT: if you don't have one). If you grab a blue chip OL or WR or whatever, sure, you improve. Then you're a 9-8 team instead of a 3-14 team. Then you are not picking high in subsequent drafts, and you never get your franchise QB unless you get VERY lucky later in the draft. The most likely outcome is that we pick a QB in the second round who becomes a starter but not the great QB you need to win championships. With him and the great defense we have, we may not suck this bad for 8-10 years. You have to take the shot now when you have it.

All of that can be disregarded if Wolf & Co. are convinced that the options available at 3 are not answers. I'd like for the draft to be over, haha.

 

[Salsalife]

But you have to go for a QB while you a picking high. If you grab a blue chip OL or WR or whatever, sure, you improve. Then you're a 9-8 team instead of a 3-14 team. Then you are not picking high in subsequent drafts, and you never get your franchise QB unless you get VERY lucky later in the draft. The most likely outcome is that we pick a QB in the second round who becomes a starter but not the great QB you need to win championships. With him and the great defense we have, we may not suck this bad for 8-10 years. You have to take the shot now when you have it.

All of that can be disregarded if Wolf & Co. are convinced that the options available at 3 are not answers. I'd like for the draft to be over, haha.

Did you even watch the Patriots for the past 20 years? Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady Era. Lots of 10 and 6 seasons. You did not enjoy a chance of winning every year?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The Pats have put themselves in an awful position where they have so many holes it almost doesn't matter if they draft QB or WR, it will be a likely major improvement over other alternatives on the current roster.

I will nitpick at your statistical statement. The odds of hitting on the QB don't go up from 30 to 50% because they already screwed up with Mac. That's like saying if the last flip was heads the next one has less than a 50% chance of being heads. They are independent events and don't impact each other.

Especially since it's not exactly the same group deciding.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Did you even watch the Patriots for the past 20 years? Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady Era. Lots of 10 and 6 seasons. You did not enjoy a chance of winning every year?

Drew Bledsoe was a #1 pick and Brady was like hitting the Powerball. We either pick high and take a swing at a franchise quarterback, or we pick low and hope that lottery ticket is a winner (it almost never is). If we trade down to fill out the roster, we’ll have lots of decent teams that can’t win championships because we will not be in a position to pick this high again for a while, barring a trade. You essentially proved my point.

 

[Salsalife]

Drew Bledsoe was a #1 pick and Brady was like hitting the Powerball. We either pick high and take a swing at a franchise quarterback, or we pick low and hope that lottery ticket is a winner (it almost never is). If we trade down to fill out the roster, we’ll have lots of decent teams that can’t win championships because we will not be in a position to pick this high again for a while, barring a trade. You essentially proved my point.

Hmmm. I will try again. So tough but I like debates alot. Try to follow. How did Brady win in Tampa so quickly? Brady leaves New England. Brady builds his team. He gets, Rob Gronk, Antonio Brown and Leonard Fournette and guess what? He BUILT his Super bowl team FIRST! How you ask? With Top Rated talent First! Why people can't comprehend this concept baffles me? Do we have to be the Jets, Bills and Miami for the next century?