How realistic is a Super Bowl appearance this season?

[signbabybrady]

Bill won it in Brady's second year so it's very realistic.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

This is why the One Seed is SO important.
Basic math probabilities go much higher when you have in effect one effortless WIN because of the 1st playoff week bye.
The numeric probability of losing in a one loss & you're out system decreases multiplying only 2 probabilities of loss vs 3.
And yes, after the 1st game the winners are on similar probability footing, opponents aside, but the One Seed Bye also lets a SB contender rest up their invariably injured healing players. I believe that Vrable would have Pats ready to play after the extra bye were that the case. OK, OK, aside from their first defensive series signature screwup, hopefully fixed over the remaining games.

This engineer knows that probabilities don't win NFL games but my math side can't help it.

 

[reflexblue]

With the first seed? I'd give us 30-33%

Without it? 15%

I don't think the odds are great for a super bowl appearance this year, but it could happen. I see Next year as being more realistic

 

[Vindicate]

Exactly

Getting to the SB and losing is worse than not going at all.

Why?

 

[sb1]

Why?

After you lose it's worse cause of draft position but before the SB it's so much better.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

2025 NFL Playoff Picture: Each team's chances of making the Super Bowl- The Athletic

NFL playoff picture and forecast for 2025. Track playoff chances, win projections, and season outlook for all teams.

www.nytimes.com

 

[borg]

Exactly

Getting to the SB and losing is worse than not going at all.

 

[sb1]

2025 NFL Playoff Picture: Each team's chances of making the Super Bowl- The Athletic

NFL playoff picture and forecast for 2025. Track playoff chances, win projections, and season outlook for all teams.

www.nytimes.com

New England Patriots What If?

The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games.

www.playoffstatus.com

So there's our rooting interest... go Texans and KC. Our odds for the bye go way up if it all goes our way.

I like this chart of potential first round opponents too:
We already clinched not having to visit the Titans in the wild card round lol.

If we do have to play on WC weekend I wouldn't mind the Chargers coming to Foxboro.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

We'd be skipping some "normal" steps, much like in 2001, where the roster was realistically overachieving and two years from being truly elite. But other champions have also skipped some steps, including some that scrambled at the very end of the season just to MAKE IT to the playoffs (Giants, arrrgghhhhh). Get in and you have a puncher's chance, especially with a hot QB. Need to play mistake-free though.

 

[Triumph]

Why?

I have been to 7 Superbowl's.

The 4 where the Pats won far exceeded the 3 SBs that they lost.

 

[Tunescribe]

The 4 where the Pats won far exceeded the 3 SBs that they lost.

 

[ErniesPinkStripes]

2025 NFL Playoff Picture: Each team's chances of making the Super Bowl- The Athletic

NFL playoff picture and forecast for 2025. Track playoff chances, win projections, and season outlook for all teams.

www.nytimes.com

Eagles SB win % chance - 14%

Patriots SB win % chance - 12%

https://media.tenor.com/iCIwlWhiT44AAAAM/holy-****-eating.gif

 

[Triumph]

Get your steps in.

 

[Brotherblues]

Let's wait until next year.

Yep, let's pack up and come back next year.

Great hanging out with you guys, it's been real. Can't wait to do it again next time.

....

 

[dannydyn]

I think you'd be hard pressed to make a legit argument that it isn't "realistic" that we make the Super Bowl. The other 6 teams in the AFC playoffs right now are:

DEN - made the playoffs last year but lost WC round and have a 2nd year QB too
IND - missed the playoffs last year, even though they were an ok team vs. bad like us
PIT - made playoffs last year but lost WC round
BUF - made AFC champ game last year and have regularly won in the playoffs except against KC
SD - made playoffs last year but lost WC round
JAX - having a turnaround from 4-13 just like us

People criticize our weak schedule but pretty sure all of those teams have weak schedules themselves. We're at 9-2 with high rankings on both sides of the ball, so really the only reason to further disqualify us from being a serious SB threat would be lack of experience but it's not exactly a murderer's row lineup of battle tested teams there. BUF the only team that's really had any actual playoff success and we already beat them and have played them tough even in our bad years these past two.

Don't count the Chiefs out just yet. Refs will do just about anything in their power to get them into the playoffs.

 

[dannydyn]

As long as the Chiefs miss the playoffs, this season is already a win for me....

 

[Triumph]

 

[Thelonious]

It doesn't take a genius to see that this year things are a lot more open than usual - even the "favorites" have a lot of questions - which I guess improves our chances.

I doubt we'll get into the SB or win it, but that's fine. Progress this year has been better than anything I hoped for, so I'll be happy no matter what happens from here on out. We are playing with house money for the duration at this point.

 

[Triumph]

As long as the Chiefs miss the playoffs, this season is already a win for me....

They aren't mathematical ruled out yet.

Reid pulled a BB and benched Rashee Rice after a dropped pass last Sunday in Denver. Fans are calling for Reids firing.

This week KC has Indy on the road and KC is running out of lives.

 

[sb1]

Also reflects that Bills, Bengals, Giants, Dolphins have to play the 9-2 Patriots...