How inaccurate is the trade value chart?

[stevedogc]

We have been told over the last year or so that the trade value chart seen on most draft sites is outdated. My question is how much and in what way? Example: going by the original chart the Pats #23 pick has a value of 760 points. Is that pick now considered to be worth more or less then before? Do higher picks have less value then before? etc.

My reason for asking is that I see a tremendous opportunity for the Pats to move up in this draft if there is a player they covet. It obvious the Pats have alot of ammo to move up in the draft, but looking at draft picks per team I see a couple of teams who may be perfect trading partners. The Saints currently have the #13 pick, but do not pick again til the 4th round and only have 4 picks in the draft. And the Redskins currently have the 14th pick and do not pick again til the 3rd round and like the Saints only have 4 picks in the draft. Both team have holes to fill and as of the start of free agency were up close, if not over the cap. A trade with the Pats to #23 would give them extra picks and would require less cap space in signing their 1st round pick. According to the current trade value chart the #23 pick and the #58 pick equal 1080 points. The 13th pick equals 1150 points and the 14th pick equals 1100 points. Would it be enough for the Pats to move up or would thy need to give up more?

And if curious, I am asking because I am invisioning the Pats taking Maualuga with that pick (if available) and then Sintim or Barwin with the 34th pick. LB problem solved!

 

[patchick]

Several of us have attempted to rewrite the chart, with mixed results. Realistically, the value of the top handful of picks fluxuates dramatically depending on the top handful of players available. But here are the general principles for re-adjusting the standard chart:

1. Depress the extreme values of the top half-dozen picks because the contract $$ will scare away a lot of suitors.

2. Account for the tiered contract lengths. In theory, 1-16 can sign 6-year deals, 17-32 5-year, and 33 on 4-year. In reality, though, 6-year deals have been rare, so it's primarily the 5/4 cutoff that matters.

 

[billdog3484]

If I am a coach/GM, I could care less what the heck the value chart says. For example, if I am sitting at #8 (I have 1400 points). If there is not a particular player I specifically covet much more than a grouping of players, what is the difference if you move down a few slots. So, for example, if #15 comes to me and says I will give you #15 (1,050) and # 79 (195 points), I seriously have to consider that and most likely accept if I feel there is going to be a player just as good at 15. It doesnt matter what the points are.

If there is a huge grouping of players who are comparable in their likelihood of succeeding in the NFL from 20-80, and you think there are a heck of a lot of guys that can help your roster, maybe you trade down and make sure you get in that range. Contrarily, if there are only 50 players in the entire draft you think can make a difference, you make sure you dont get stuck with 51. if you have to maneuver to do this, you do it.

the chart, to me at least, is only a guideline.

every year it will change depending on the depth of talent, or lack thereof. if there are 5 absolute studs and you really think this player will make the difference for your franchise, you do what you have to do if it is reasonable to do so.

 

[spacecrime]

We have been told over the last year or so that the trade value chart seen on most draft sites is outdated. My question is how much and in what way? Example: going by the original chart the Pats #23 pick has a value of 760 points. Is that pick now considered to be worth more or less then before? Do higher picks have less value then before? etc.

My reason for asking is that I see a tremendous opportunity for the Pats to move up in this draft if there is a player they covet. It obvious the Pats have alot of ammo to move up in the draft, but looking at draft picks per team I see a couple of teams who may be perfect trading partners. The Saints currently have the #13 pick, but do not pick again til the 4th round and only have 4 picks in the draft. And the Redskins currently have the 14th pick and do not pick again til the 3rd round and like the Saints only have 4 picks in the draft. Both team have holes to fill and as of the start of free agency were up close, if not over the cap. A trade with the Pats to #23 would give them extra picks and would require less cap space in signing their 1st round pick. According to the current trade value chart the #23 pick and the #58 pick equal 1080 points. The 13th pick equals 1150 points and the 14th pick equals 1100 points. Would it be enough for the Pats to move up or would thy need to give up more?

And if curious, I am asking because I am invisioning the Pats taking Maualuga with that pick (if available) and then Sintim or Barwin with the 34th pick. LB problem solved!

It's not like it is a law or anything. Teams can do what they want withoukt regard for the chart. But most trades come pretty close to it, so it is a reasonable guide as to what you might need and what you might expect.

Just having the ammo to move up means nothing unless the team who sits where you want to be wants to move. When we had the 21st pick and Vince WIlfork was available, it would take a lot to get the Pats to trade because they wouldn't want to. On the other hand, the year before it was easy to get them to move off of the 21st pick the year before that when the Rvens wanted Kyle Boller.

So it is more than just the chart, but given a pair of willing trade partners, the chart is about what you can expect.

 

[Ungeheuer]

The Pats will have a lot of options in terms of how they want to get up into range to get Maualuga, if that's what they're planning on doing.

In recent years teams have been trading high picks for less, just because the financial commitment of the higher picks makes them less attractive. There have been some attempts at a new chart (ie Updating the Trade Value Chart provided by NFL Draft 101 - Your home for hard hitting NFL Draft coverage. ). It seems to me that they'll be able to get to 12 or 13 just by trading 34 and 47. Maybe they'll have to kick in a future 5 or something, but that's pretty close.

They could end up picking something like this in the first three rounds: 12,23,59,89,98. Or they could pick 12,34,47,89,98. I think if they were willing to give up their first #3, they might be able to get into the top 10 without giving up #23: they could end up picking something like 10,23,59,98. And they could could into the top 6-7 if they sacrificed their 1 and two of their 2s: they'd pick something like 6,34,89,98.

My guess however is that they won't go higher than 12 or 13, and won't give up more than two of their first-day picks to get there.

 

[bakes781]

I know one team that disregards the value chart entirely and that's the Washington Redskins. So if we can rob them of that 13th pick I'm all for it!

 

[My2Cents]

it's definetly outlived it's purpose. It's, more or less, now, a reference point.

 

[signbabybrady]

I think the charts we see are outdated...I would guess most teams come up with their own charts on a yearly basis that reflects new restrictions in the draft such as the contract length and balloning money for top ten but I bet they also take into effect the percieved skill in a particular draft vs the perception of the following one and other things. But I would think the charts are still very useful especially when you consider the time to pick is less meaning a quick glance at a well thought out chart could save a lot of time.