How does this team compare to last year's team?

[Fencer]

This past offseason was a weird one. Looking across the league, it seems likely that offenses aren't as good as the stats currently suggest and defenses aren't as bad. And by "stats" I also mean "play leading to those stats".

That said, the offensive personnel are similar to last year's. There was the Moss-Branch exchange, there was the Faulk-Woodhead exchange, there was different timing for Hernandez' injury, a different mix of healthy OL, etc. -- but it's all similar.

The biggest problem is that it seems a few times a year rivals can outscheme our offense, and if that's true then in particular they can crank it up for the playoffs. Otherwise, the offense is great.

STs -- we don't really know what FG range Gostowski is good for, and there are various other uncertainties -- but any problems are minor.

So the issue is defense. I'll leave it to others to say dire things about that.

 

[robbomango]

idk but the defense these past years makes me feel like I'm watching the laughing stalk patriots of old.

The offensive efficiency seems right on. Brady's scored more or the same amount of TD's in games with less yardage that's for sure.

That's why I think high passing yardage can be a busted stat. TB threw 6 TDs against the Titans in 09 passing for 380yrds and 4 TDs for 517yrds against miami. He's also had 4TD games with 250yrds.

Atleast running yrds even without a score equates to time of possesion.

I'm 1 of the lesser educated so correct me if I'm wrong.

Nice effort on the research!!! Go Pats!!!

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Are you serious? Now you are claiming I can't read? This is what I wrote:

No, I'm sure you can read......... I just think you don't understand what your reading. Big difference.

Bendability is a measure of two things......... Yardage allowed (which is a defensive only Stat) / point's scored (which can be allowed by defense, ST, or pick six).

It's primarily a defensive stat, because your defense is 90-95% responsible for allowing points. The bendibility CAN be influenced by the offense or ST, because they can allow what essentually equals a "yardage" free TD on a punt return or pick six. In general, it's a measure of how easily a team allows points scored on it.

For example, It a defense allows 300 yds and 7 offensive points on it, it has a very good bedability score of 42.8, but if at the same time also allows 2 punt returns then it goes down to 14 (which is much worse). That is the only way it's team influanced, which over a larger sample size, decreases the impact of ST or offense. It becomes a primarily defensive measure (becasue they give up most the points over the long run - In general).

For the compairison I made, it was irrelavent and it becomes good indicator of the two defenses specifically because in the first 3 games of both last and this year, there was only -7 points that were not defense allowed. That would be Sunday's pick-6 and last year Spiller has a PR for Buff in game 3. They negate each other for this comparison.

Last year, we were making teams drive ~94 yds per TD through three games

This year, we are making teams drive ~124 yds per TD through three games

That is a direct result of 5 drives being stopped beyond 50 yds this year vs. 0 drives last year. That means this year, our defense is better then it was through three games last year.

But hey. don't let facts get in the way of your misury.

 

[BSR]

Last year, we were making teams drive ~94 yds per TD through three games

This year, we are making teams drive ~124 yds per TD through three games

That is a direct result of 5 drives being stopped beyond 50 yds this year vs. 0 drives last year. That means this year, our defense is better then it was through three games last year.

But hey. don't let facts get in the way of your misury.

Its really hard to make this claim based off of one stat that has many factors that influence it. For instance, I would be interested to know what the average starting position of the opposition was for each year. That could heavily influence this statistic.

In either case, three games is hardly a great sample size for statistical measurement and especially for early season trends. I don't know if the defense is better or worse than last year considering there have been so many changes in personnel and scheme, but regardless I still know a couple of things that haven't changed, at least so far this year. This defense just like the defenses of the past couple of years are vulnerable to the pass and have a lack of pass rush.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Its really hard to make this claim based off of one stat that has many factors that influence it. For instance, I would be interested to know what the average starting position of the opposition was for each year. That could heavily influence this statistic.

In either case, three games is hardly a great sample size for statistical measurement and especially for early season trends. I don't know if the defense is better or worse than last year considering there have been so many changes in personnel and scheme, but regardless I still know a couple of things that haven't changed, at least so far this year. This defense just like the defenses of the past couple of years are vulnerable to the pass and have a lack of pass rush.

I think in large part that is true........... 3 games is a short window. Of course, it was also meant to pull some people off the ledge a bit two. There have been some really crazy crap posted this week, and this is meant to take a more realisitic look.

We don't know what's in store for this defense and this small window certainly can show that in the early games this year, one thing this defense has showed is that it can make plays in areas of the field they certainly could not last year.

I anticipate that we'll start to get better in the next couple games, as we start to gel more and people get healthier.

 

[BSR]

I think in large part that is true........... 3 games is a short window. Of course, it was also meant to pull some people off the ledge a bit two. There have been some really crazy crap posted this week, and this is meant to take a more realisitic look.

We don't know what's in store for this defense and this small window certainly can show that in the early games this year, one thing this defense has showed is that it can make plays in areas of the field they certainly could not last year.

I anticipate that we'll start to get better in the next couple games, as we start to gel more and people get healthier.

They do seem a bit stouter on the goal line and short yardage situations at least.