The Patriots. Defense matters.
Agreed. However I think the Colts may actually have a better shot at the top seed going into the playoffs. Both teams could very likely go 14 - 2 and if Indy wins the head to head game, they're #1. The Patriots bye week comes right
after that game so any injuries that put a player out for a game or two that would have otherwise been able to heal during a week off could have a huge impact on that game.
Indy's division foes aren't as comically inept as the AFC East, but being aligned with the pitiful NFC South makes up for it. I don't think anyone expects the Falcons or Panthers to have any chance of beating them. The AFC West is garbage this year too.
Overall the division alignments that amount to 8 games work in Indy's favor, while the Patriots have a better expectation of getting six wins out of their own division. I think it's safe to say either way that whoever wins the game between them is likely to be the #1 seed.
Getting at least the second playoff BYE is what matters. They can win on the road if they are healthy, and the best way to stay healthy is to avoid being in situation where you have to press in December (was it worth losing Harrison in that game against the Titans?) and then play a wild card game.
I know this is taboo but: I still worry about the way our secondary couldn't keep up in the AFCCG last year
Hobbs and Samuel did a commendable job last year. It was the linebackers sucking wind that caused such a ridiculous defensive collapse in the second half. If Seau is still in the rotation and with Thomas being so versatile, they shouldn't have that problem this time around
if people stay healthy.
I'm just hoping against hope that some sort of short term injuries aren't sustained in the next few weeks that could have benefitted from a bye week. It's nice to know the Pats can put up 30 now like it's a bodily function but that isn't enough if the defense is missing people.