Great new aspect on evaluating Pats D from Hill

[long distance]

So many threads about D .. but here Hill proposes some new valuable aspects of D evaluation - using the Expected Points model (EPA) - that also explains why the views and the stats (and the stat:eye test ratio) are so opposing:

Patriots offense and special teams are masking defensive deficiencies

Quote:
The whole point of the defense is to prevent the opposing team from scoring points. The Patriots defense has been one of the best in the league at this task, although they have received major assistance from both special teams and the offense to force opposing teams to start drives from a league-best 24.5 yard line.
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There are only seven defenses that get the better of opposing offenses on a weekly basis: the Cardinals, Broncos, Vikings, Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans. The Giants, Chargers, Seahawks, and Rams are pretty close to neutral, too. The Patriots rank 17th, sandwiched between the Steelers and the Bears.
_

I would add one thing though: Whatever the between the 20's deficiencies of the Pats D might be .. the same personnel undoubtedly fields one of the best (if not the best) red zone defence in the league.

 

[FCB02062]

We can all agree that the Pats defense would be much better if they consistently made teams punt from their own 20 or 30 instead of allowing teams to drive from 20 to 20, eat 4 or 5 minutes off the clock, convert 3-3 or 4-4 on third downs and kick field goals

 

[skinnydog]

Finally the answer. The best Pats player on defense is Tom Brady on offense.

 

[RayClay]

Don't need a PHD to figure the Pats are in transition with collins out and Sheard in a funk. Let's see if they make progress once their personnel is more settled.

 

[long distance]

I thought this could bring the divided Pats fandom closer on D issues.
Obviously the heated pro and con are whats needed.

I for one am thankful for this Hills article because it shows clearly enough that 1. D is part of complementary game and its success (in points allowed) is not only about them; 2. Puts it in perspective of the league beyond favouring any statistics or eye tests. They are not top 3 and they don't suck .. maybe thats boring but that's what it is.

 

[Mack Herron]

Don't need a PHD to figure the Pats are in transition with collins out and Sheard in a funk. Let's see if they make progress once their personnel is more settled.

That is the hope, and it has been for some time. But here we are closing in on December and the personnel are as unsettled as ever. Maybe it will be a rotation for the remainder. Looking at the athletes, Butler, Hightower, and maybe McCourty are special, but not too much after that. I don't see the talent here to be a great defense. But if they can settle on personnel, develop trust, consistency, and confidence, maybe they can become more formidable and not allow long scoring drives at crucial times. I will watch carefully on Sunday.

 

[mikey m]

That is the hope, and it has been for some time. But here we are closing in on December and the personnel are as unsettled as ever. Maybe it will be a rotation for the remainder. Looking at the athletes, Butler, Hightower, and maybe McCourty are special, but not too much after that. I don't see the talent here to be a great defense. But if they can settle on personnel, develop trust, consistency, and confidence, maybe they can become more formidable and not allow long scoring drives at crucial times. I will watch carefully on Sunday.

We really need Sheard to get his game back on track as he's probably the fourth and final guy that comes to mind as having the all the physical tools behind the guys you mentioned. When on top of his game he can consistently create decent pressure, and he's very stout holding up in the run game.

 

[skinnydog]

I thought this could bring the divided Pats fandom closer on D issues.
Obviously the heated pro and con are whats needed.

I for one am thankful for this Hills article because it shows clearly enough that 1. D is part of complementary game and its success (in points allowed) is not only about them; 2. Puts it in perspective of the league beyond favouring any statistics or eye tests. They are not top 3 and they don't suck .. maybe thats boring but that's what it is.

I think the article does a nice job on pinpointing where this defense is with respect to the rest of the defenses in the league. I was looking for the stat the other day about where the Pats rank in terms of the other teams starting field position and am not surprised to see they are number one. I think that is a large reason for the inability of other teams to put up points against this team. That said they are not a bad defense, it's just that as things stand now this D won't win you a playoff game if the other team slows down Brady.

 

[long distance]

That is the hope, and it has been for some time. But here we are closing in on December and the personnel are as unsettled as ever. Maybe it will be a rotation for the remainder. Looking at the athletes, Butler, Hightower, and maybe McCourty are special, but not too much after that. I don't see the talent here to be a great defense. But if they can settle on personnel, develop trust, consistency, and confidence, maybe they can become more formidable and not allow long scoring drives at crucial times. I will watch carefully on Sunday.

We really need Sheard to get his game back on track as he's probably the fourth and final guy that comes to mind as having the all the physical tools behind the guys you mentioned. When on top of his game he can consistently create decent pressure, and he's very stout holding up in the run game.

I could agree in general about talented players .. although Butler was not considered talented not long ago etc. .. so the meaning of talented here is obviously subjective and transitory - f.e. Flowers is now considered talented by some people while nobody called him that just a month ago.

Id say there's at least decent talent in most of D starters and many showed they can be very productive given the opportunity (Chung, Roberts, Flowers, Brown, Branch, Valentine) some showed potential and room for improvement (Rowe, Van Noy) some are very dependable (Long, Harmon) and some are inconsistent or declining (Ninkovich, Ryan, McClellin). That's enough talent under talented coach to assemble a competitive unit. They are still in the aftermath of a shock and in the middle of reshuffling. I agree with MH's before-last sentence and believe last Sunday showed steps in this direction.

And then there's Sheard. He certainly is talented but also seems to me very immature. I may be off but I think his decline is connected with off-the-field issues (maybe more with the departure of his homies than with uncertain future contract). He was namely much better at the start of the season and really plummeted after the bye. Bringing Sheard's performance to at least the level of the beginning of the season would be very important from more aspects then one.

We're getting a bit nervous since time is running out .. but we can trust BB's experience that he would never go into this mid-season reshuffling if he thought there's not enough time.

 

[Schmo]

Total bs. Games are won by feel good moments, and that's what I want as a fan! I don't care if the opposing team gets a bunch of big plays and touchdowns, we need an all-out pass rush to get the occasional sack or interception.

Seriously though, 3 and outs are satisfying, but I'm overcome with a certain smugness whenever we force a field goal....knowing the other team will usually need 6 or 7 of them to stand a chance.

 

[deroc5050]

That is the hope, and it has been for some time. But here we are closing in on December and the personnel are as unsettled as ever. Maybe it will be a rotation for the remainder. Looking at the athletes, Butler, Hightower, and maybe McCourty are special, but not too much after that. I don't see the talent here to be a great defense. But if they can settle on personnel, develop trust, consistency, and confidence, maybe they can become more formidable and not allow long scoring drives at crucial times. I will watch carefully on Sunday.

Is McCourty special though? We don't see a lot of big plays being given up so I guess thats a testament to him but I am not sure he is special. I think he might be over paid. Hard for me to say for sure. He certainly doesn't get a lot of turn overs.

 

[Gumby]

So many threads about D .. but here Hill proposes some new valuable aspects of D evaluation - using the Expected Points model (EPA) - that also explains why the views and the stats (and the stat:eye test ratio) are so opposing:

Patriots offense and special teams are masking defensive deficiencies

Quote:
The whole point of the defense is to prevent the opposing team from scoring points. The Patriots defense has been one of the best in the league at this task, although they have received major assistance from both special teams and the offense to force opposing teams to start drives from a league-best 24.5 yard line.
-
There are only seven defenses that get the better of opposing offenses on a weekly basis: the Cardinals, Broncos, Vikings, Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans. The Giants, Chargers, Seahawks, and Rams are pretty close to neutral, too. The Patriots rank 17th, sandwiched between the Steelers and the Bears.
_

I would add one thing though: Whatever the between the 20's deficiencies of the Pats D might be .. the same personnel undoubtedly fields one of the best (if not the best) red zone defence in the league.

So, to me this article means the loss of Slater will have a much bigger impact on the Pats D than the loss of Collins /Jones has been. (

 

[PP2]

Is McCourty special though? We don't see a lot of big plays being given up so I guess thats a testament to him but I am not sure he is special. I think he might be over paid. Hard for me to say for sure. He certainly doesn't get a lot of turn overs.

That's a loaded question- McCourty is a very solid player who just doesn't make mistakes. Granted he doesn't have the elite instincts of Rodney Harrison who always seemed to know where the QB was going to throw, even before the QB himself and had an uncanny knack for timing the crunching hit, perfectly. Ed Reed had this instinct too, to an otherworldly extent.

But there is something McCourty brings that they don't- he is effectively a second DC, an on-field DC if you will. He has major input on how the gameplan evolves during the game. In the first half vs. Bengals when we were struggling in coverage, he was the one who recognized that every time Dalton broke the pocket, the Bengals receivers would attempt to get behind the coverage, so he told Patricia that they should stop collapsing so much on the under coverage. This and other tweaks is why Dalton had a horrendous 2nd half.

Similarly in the last game, when Hightower started blowing up the RB (when he stayed down to block) like he was nothing, SF had the RB go to checkdown, and release every single down from that point on, then there was a period where we had trouble containing the RB on the outside. I am willing to bet you that the subsequent adjustment came from McCourty himself- that there should be a DB who chips, fakes zone, and then sit on the wheel route, or slant.

 

[DarrylS]

Discussion of the Expected Points Model but does not show what it is or the numbers, so what is the difference something minuscule or significant???..

My highly refined eyeball model of watching the Pats D is that there are issues, but upon further review there are issues with every defense in the NFL right now.. and the powers to be want high powered Offenses...

From the referenced article.. interesting.

Opposing teams have scored against the Patriots on a mere 31.2% of drives in 2016, the 6th best rate in the league- behind the Ravens, Rams, Cardinals, Eagles, and Seahawks. Opposing teams have averaged 6.62 plays per drive, the 8th highest mark in the league- although the Seahawks defense ranks 2nd with 6.89 plays per drive.

It’s difficult to isolate the performance of a defense without factoring in field position granted by the offense and by special teams, and there are certain stats that are skewed based upon defensive strategy (plays per drive).

Sometimes there is an effort to quantify something that defies quantification..