Grading the patsfans.com collective pundits

[patchick]

Pundit bashing is one of the most popular pastimes of NFL fans. We call them idiots, mock their predictions and then dance in glee when their forecasts fail to come true. I mean, we all knew the Dolphins weren't going to the Superbowl, right? What were those idiots thinking?

Of course, they have to do their thinking in public so they can get called on it later. What if somebody tracked all of our predictions? Would we fare any better?

Before the season a popular thread here asked for predictions of the surprise rise and fall teams of the year -- playoff teams that would collapse, and also-rans that would surge to power. So I kept track. I made a spreadsheet tallying all our predictions, and I just decided to check up on the results. Each team's rise/fall score is calculated by comparing this season's winning percentage to last years, then I summed up the votes in the rising and falling categories. And the result is...<drumroll>...

We're at flat chance. Our picks in each group are doing pretty much the same as last year. The top pick for a falling team was Pittsburgh (we're geniuses!), the top pick for a rising team was Arizona (we're idiots!)

Which is a good reminder that predicting the future is a tough job . And as they say, that's why they play the games. Just be glad you didn't make your prediction on national television.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Pundit bashing is one of the most popular pastimes of NFL fans. We call them idiots, mock their predictions and then dance in glee when their forecasts fail to come true. I mean, we all knew the Dolphins weren't going to the Superbowl, right? What were those idiots thinking?

Of course, they have to do their thinking in public so they can get called on it later. What if somebody tracked all of our predictions? Would we fare any better?

Before the season a popular thread here asked for predictions of the surprise rise and fall teams of the year -- playoff teams that would collapse, and also-rans that would surge to power. So I kept track. I made a spreadsheet tallying all our predictions, and I just decided to check up on the results. Each team's rise/fall score is calculated by comparing this season's winning percentage to last years, then I summed up the votes in the rising and falling categories. And the result is...<drumroll>...

We're at flat chance. Our picks in each group are doing pretty much the same as last year. The top pick for a falling team was Pittsburgh (we're geniuses!), the top pick for a rising team was Arizona (we're idiots!)

Which is a good reminder that predicting the future is a tough job . And as they say, that's why they play the games. Just be glad you didn't make your prediction on national television.

Great points! I personnally don't care about all the folks that get stuff wrong. I most like to blast the ones that are arrogant, or state something as fact, or blast my teams. Example: Jason Seahorn blasted the Patriots and was POSITIVE the Dolphins would win the AFC East. The stuff he and a couple of his cohorts were saying was so over the top, and disrespectful of the Patriots, that I do take pleasure in the start of the season.

 

[Oswlek]

Seems like a good spot for a gratuitous self-pat on the back. :cool3: :rocker:

Miami is the quintassential example of a team that had a few breaks to give it a better record than you would expect, and then people using that improper baseline for the following year’s projections.

(Previous examples of this include 04 Bills, 04 Falcons, 03 Dallas and 01 Pats)

That was a 6-10 team last year that caught a few lucky breaks. Just a cursary glance at their “remarkable” run to end the season shows the following:

* Against SD, even though they had the advantage of knowing every line call (SD’s coaches decided not to change them for this game even though Miami had the ex-OL coach) they barely pulled it out.

* Buffalo blew a 23-3 3rd quarter lead because they started coasting too early.

* Brooks Bollinger had this line at Miami!
C/ATT YDS TD INT
28/42 327 2 0

The Jets had a 1st and 5 on the 14 with just over a minute to go in a game decided by 4 points. Another skate against a bad team.

* And the Pats nearly won playing scond and third stringers for 3 quarters. This included a QB that hadn’t played 3 full quarters since high school, a practice squad WR playing CB, etc.

I see Miami being an improved team, but taking a step backwards recordwise. I will be shocked if they win more than 8 games.

The Jets, on the other hand, are going to win at least 7 games. They were just the opposite in that their record was pushed down due to outside circumstances. Oddly enough, the recent team that they are most similar to is Miami in 2004. And, just as I was surprised at how many people didn’t realize that Miami would certainly win at least 6-7 games just by having a normal camp in 05, the same holds true for the NYJ. As long as they don’t lose Pennington again, they are definitely not a 4-5 win team.

Oh, and even though NE has many more questions than usual, it would take a series of injuries even worse than last year for them to win less than 11 games with their schedule. Take the over.

This is post #4 and I have several others that expand upon the Miami point.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Thre thread I remember was picking the top four teams (2 AFC, 2 NFC).

I picked us and the Colts for the AFC. That doesn't look too bad, though Denver is obviously in front of us at this stage.

For the NFC, I picked the best two teams in the NFC East, which I saw as the Eagles and the Giants. Oopsie! I didn't think the Bears' offense would improve that much, thought the Seahawks were going to play like they did in the Superbowl and jumped off the Carolina bandwagon. All three are much better bets for the NFC championship game, I now think.

Still, I remember having a discussion with Patsfanfrom1974 who picked the 'boys and the Skins. We agreed to wait and see how the season panned out. Let's just say, I'm not swapping picks with him!

Oh, and picking Arizona for a team on the rise was crazy from the get-go. You ought to listen to your Uncle NEM -- anyone who has followed him over the years knows that two things always suck in his universe: the Cardinals and whoever is calling the offensive plays for the Patriots. Whatever you think about the second, he has a point about the first.