Game Thoughts: No Brady, No Gronk, No Nink, No Solder, No Problem Edition

[Rob0729]

Here we go:

• Three more games like this by Jimmy Garoppolo and Deflategate will blow up in the owners who wanted Goodell to go hard after the Patriots' faces. These owners wanted Goodell to take away the draft picks and suspend Brady to weaken the Pats and give their teams a chance. If Jimmy continues to play like this or better, the Pats are likely to get back their draft capital and so much more in a trade and the Pats could be 4-0 with a fresh Brady in return. I can see the Pats getting a top 5-10 draft pick in the 2017 draft and one or more higher draft picks for Garoppolo in the offseason. The irony of it all is that Deflategate may actually improve the Patriots for the future because the Pats may end up getting a far better trade package for Garoppolo than they ever could if he didn't get these four starts.
• So much for Garoppolo holding onto the ball too long. Sure there were a handful of plays where he did, but all QBs do that including Brady.
• I said this last night. Although Dion Lewis is a more complete RB, James White is a far better receiver. Just go back and look at the numbers last year, White was far more productive in the receiving game than Lewis.
• It is clear that Coach Gooch was the biggest problem with the o-line last year. Sure the o-line was far from perfect last night and they benefitted from the Cards not blitzing as much as they used to, but the o-line was mostly solid. And I think they found their LG for the next ten years. Kuddos to Scar.
• Last year I never got why Coach Gooch sat David Andrews for Stork. When Stork was injured at the beginning of the year last year, Andrews clearly out played the guy.
• Chris Long is yet another example of another team's trash is Bill Belichick's impact player. I was optimistic that the guy who would make an impact on the team, but I never thought he could be so dominant.
• I know Logan Ryan will get crap for Larry Fitzgerald's production, but I actually thought Ryan overall did a very good job. Neither Fitzgerald TD was Ryan's fault. The first Ryan was victim of a pick play he couldn't avoid and the second Ryan had perfect coverage and Fitzgerald just made a HOF WR type of catch. There were two catches on the Cards' final drive that you could blame on him, but the first and biggest on on that drive was in zone coverage and Fitzgerald wasn't in his zone when he caught the ball.
• Chris Hogan is living up to his reputation in Buffalo of that when you throw to him, he is wide open with no one around him.
• Edelman is still amazing. That is all.
• To address a question from the game thread why Amendola was returning punts. This is typical Belichick. Belichick has always preferred season veterans to field punts when it is closer to the end one. He just doesn't trust younger players to know whether to let the ball bounce into the end zone or field it. He used to do that with Kevin Faulk early in Edelman's early years of fielding punts.
• I still don't get why Belichick waited so long to call that last time out. He wasted 25 seconds that would have come back to bite the Pats if the Cards didn't miss the field goal.

 

[upstater1]

Good post. For the first bit about Deflategate, Garoppolo would have to return at least a #1, #2, #4 and the Patriots would have to go 3-1.

 

[Rob0729]

Good post. For the first bit about Deflategate, Garoppolo would have to return at least a #1, #2, #4 and the Patriots would have to go 3-1.

I don't think the Pats have to get that much back in return. Let's say the Pats trade Garoppolo for the fifth overall pick and a high fourth. That is far more back than they lost. They lost the 29th pick in 2016 and turned it to the 5th overall pick in 2017 in this scenario.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Here we go:

• Three more games like this by Jimmy Garoppolo and Deflategate will blow up in the owners who wanted Goodell to go hard after the Patriots' faces. These owners wanted Goodell to take away the draft picks and suspend Brady to weaken the Pats and give their teams a chance. If Jimmy continues to play like this or better, the Pats are likely to get back their draft capital and so much more in a trade and the Pats could be 4-0 with a fresh Brady in return. I can see the Pats getting a top 5-10 draft pick in the 2017 draft and one or more higher draft picks for Garoppolo in the offseason. The irony of it all is that Deflategate may actually improve the Patriots for the future because the Pats may end up getting a far better trade package for Garoppolo than they ever could if he didn't get these four starts.
• So much for Garoppolo holding onto the ball too long. Sure there were a handful of plays where he did, but all QBs do that including Brady.
• I said this last night. Although Dion Lewis is a more complete RB, James White is a far better receiver. Just go back and look at the numbers last year, White was far more productive in the receiving game than Lewis.
• It is clear that Coach Gooch was the biggest problem with the o-line last year. Sure the o-line was far from perfect last night and they benefitted from the Cards not blitzing as much as they used to, but the o-line was mostly solid. And I think they found their LG for the next ten years. Kuddos to Scar.
• Last year I never got why Coach Gooch sat David Andrews for Stork. When Stork was injured at the beginning of the year last year, Andrews clearly out played the guy.
• Chris Long is yet another example of another team's trash is Bill Belichick's impact player. I was optimistic that the guy who would make an impact on the team, but I never thought he could be so dominant.
• I know Logan Ryan will get crap for Larry Fitzgerald's production, but I actually thought Ryan overall did a very good job. Neither Fitzgerald TD was Ryan's fault. The first Ryan was victim of a pick play he couldn't avoid and the second Ryan had perfect coverage and Fitzgerald just made a HOF WR type of catch. There were two catches on the Cards' final drive that you could blame on him, but the first and biggest on on that drive was in zone coverage and Fitzgerald wasn't in his zone when he caught the ball.
• Chris Hogan is living up to his reputation in Buffalo of that when you throw to him, he is wide open with no one around him.
• Edelman is still amazing. That is all.
• To address a question from the game thread why Amendola was returning punts. This is typical Belichick. Belichick has always preferred season veterans to field punts when it is closer to the end one. He just doesn't trust younger players to know whether to let the ball bounce into the end zone or field it. He used to do that with Kevin Faulk early in Edelman's early years of fielding punts.
• I still don't get why Belichick waited so long to call that last time out. He wasted 25 seconds that would have come back to bite the Pats if the Cards didn't miss the field goal.

Good post

You might want to revisit the numbers on Lewis v White as they are practically identical on the number of targets, catches, catch %, yards, etc.

 

[Froob]

Can't believe people were crying about the Collins leaping penalty. Didn't cost us at all. That's the exact time you call that stunt. Would have been huge.

 

[stoinkythepig]

I suspect BB did not call the TO right away because he figured that's exactly what every other HC would do and what the Cards were expecting. They were out of TOs and could not afford a delay of game, so he wanted them to panic just like Seattle did at the end of SB49. When they didn't panic, he called the TO. Can't help but think it still rattled the Cards a bit when they realized he was not going to immediately help them with a TO.

 

[JMC00]

still don't get why Belichick waited so long to call that last time out. He wasted 25 seconds that would have come back to bite the Pats if the Cards didn't miss the field goal.

Calling a time out helps the Cardinals. It was 4th down so they couldn't spike it and Arians burned through his time outs with 4 minutes to go. Made the FG unit rush on because the play clock was running and it was already a 47 yarder, so no way they are taking a delay of game. So they rush on get set then BB freezed them.

Well that's my thinking at least

 

[BelichickFan]

Bill explained the lack of timeout. FG units are on a regular schedule and if they snapped the ball at the usual time, the T/O saved for offense would help more. Once he realized they would not snap on the regular schedule he called the T/O. Bottom line, like the lack of T/O in the SB, the Patriots were in bad shape either way, there wasn't a good situation, just making the best of two bad options. Thankfully they both worked.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I don't think the Pats have to get that much back in return. Let's say the Pats trade Garoppolo for the fifth overall pick and a high fourth. That is far more back than they lost. They lost the 29th pick in 2016 and turned it to the 5th overall pick in 2017 in this scenario.

do you think it's a given that BB is going to trade him? I mean what if BB thinks Grop is the heir to Brady?

 

[BelichickFan]

do you think it's a given that BB is going to trade him? I mean what if BB thinks Grop is the heir to Brady?

My opinion is it depends on the offers and how JG plays. Assuming he plays well (otherwise it's moot), Bill will almost certainly want a Top 15 pick or equivalent value. If not there's no harm in keeping him through 2017 and seeing where TB12 is. I expect TB12 to be fine but he'll be 40 so who knows if we'll see decline by the end of next year.

 

[Ivan]

Good post but I disagree on the owners. The owners win or loss on deflate gate comes down to one issue only, do they get the players to capitulate on the eighteen game season. The battle over Goddells powers was about giving the owners the right bargaining chip to get the players to fold on their opposition to the eighteen game season, if the players give in the owners win, if not they wasted their time and money on it.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

My opinion is it depends on the offers and how JG plays. Assuming he plays well (otherwise it's moot), Bill will almost certainly want a Top 15 pick or equivalent value. If not there's no harm in keeping him through 2017 and seeing where TB12 is. I expect TB12 to be fine but he'll be 40 so who knows if we'll see decline by the end of next year.

yeah, i'm just thinking that good QBs are hard to find - hoyer, cassel and Mallett were not that good. I mean if Jimmy G is the next Aaron Rodgers, why trade him? The other issue is Jimmy G does not seem like the type of guy who would want to sit around and wait for TB to retire. It's clear he wants to take control of this team - that's just his competitive nature. I can't blame him, it's exactly what TB did to DB 15 years ago.

 

[nabwong]

The fans don't know who Chris Hogan is and neither does the defense.

 

[BelichickFan]

The other issue is Jimmy G does not seem like the type of guy who would want to sit around and wait for TB to retire. It's clear he wants to take control of this team - that's just his competitive nature. I can't blame him, it's exactly what TB did to DB 15 years ago.

Yeah, there's no chance of that. There's 4 possibilities. In order of likelihood as I see them :

1) JG plays well for 3 more games, we get a good offer and trade him.
2) JG plays well for 3 more games, we don't get a good enough offer and keep him another year.
3) JG sh!ts the bed the next 3 games and he's stuck as a backup next year as no-one wants him.
4) JG plays well for 3 more games, the Patriots decide to keep the 25 year old over the 39 year old and (gasp) trade Brady.

(1) and (2) are far more likely than (3) or (4).

 

[PatsFan2]

Great job Rob the only thing that bugs me about the game was them sitting on the football before halftime. Jimmy G played awesome as did the WR's. What can I say about Rookie Malcom Mitchell looks like we finally got lucky his numbers could have been better he just missed hauling in a Huge gainer in the first half. Danny Amendola looked real sharp glad BB makes the decisions and not me.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Calling a time out helps the Cardinals. It was 4th down so they couldn't spike it and Arians burned through his time outs with 4 minutes to go. Made the FG unit rush on because the play clock was running and it was already a 47 yarder, so no way they are taking a delay of game. So they rush on get set then BB freezed them.

Well that's my thinking at least

In the postgame Bill said that he was thinking they would line up to kick quickly and decided to call the time out when he saw that they were going to let the play clock run down first.

 

[Haley]

Also, don't forget:

• No 1st
• No 4th

It is sorcery. I can't... I just can't even.

p.s. Thank you for coming back to us, Scar. We missed you.

 

[Rob0729]

yeah, i'm just thinking that good QBs are hard to find - hoyer, cassel and Mallett were not that good. I mean if Jimmy G is the next Aaron Rodgers, why trade him? The other issue is Jimmy G does not seem like the type of guy who would want to sit around and wait for TB to retire. It's clear he wants to take control of this team - that's just his competitive nature. I can't blame him, it's exactly what TB did to DB 15 years ago.

I don't think Garoppolo is the next Aaron Rodgers. I think he can be a good to very good QB in this league, but I don't know if he will ever be elite. And it will also depend on what they think about with Brissett.

But if Garoppolo is the next Rodgers, they trade Brady.

 

[PrairiePat]

Can't believe people were crying about the Collins leaping penalty. Didn't cost us at all. That's the exact time you call that stunt. Would have been huge.

I laughed at the Cardinals when the guy blasted the short kickoff into the stands. They effectively did -nothing- with those free 15 yards. If they pooch kick down to the 5-10 yardline, their coverage team would have been on top of the receiver by the time he caught the ball.

 

[Rob0729]

Great job Rob the only thing that bugs me about the game was them sitting on the football before halftime. Jimmy G played awesome as did the WR's. What can I say about Rookie Malcom Mitchell looks like we finally got lucky his numbers could have been better he just missed hauling in a Huge gainer in the first half. Danny Amendola looked real sharp glad BB makes the decisions and not me.

A first time starter in a hostile environment. I can see why Belichick decided to sit on the ball before the half, but I would have preferred they let Garoppolo run the two minute offense.