Expert 2014 NFL Predictions (as if they mean anything)

[PATSNUTme]

I'm worried that Kiper has us as SB champions.

I predict that most of the predictions will be wrong.

 

[Jackson 2]

I'm worried that Kiper has us as SB champions.

I predict that most of the predictions will be wrong.

And his hair was perfect...

 

[ausbacker]

Woah. Gotta disagree with you on this one. Rodgers has had some nice receivers, but he played behind a brutal OL for most of his tenure. His mobility was a must, and he's the best I've seen in 20 years at throwing on the run. GB's running game has sucked as well.

The only possible negative on Aaron's slate is the rumblings that he is too full of himself. On the field, he is outstanding.

I'm not questioning Rodgers' ability (I think he's an outstanding QB) it's more he's blown up into demi-god status and appreciated to the same level as guys who have produced year in and year out for the majority of their careers. Rodgers hasn't brought that prolonged level of performance to the NFL just yet.

Not to allow people to be confused, I believe Rodgers is an outstanding talent but Brees, Brady and Manning have been consistently excellent performers.

 

[ausbacker]

I personally think that New Orleans may be overrated. I think the Falcons could rebound and take the South from them.

They may be @Rob0729 but they've added some nice pieces on D and the Ryans know how to prepare a Defense. I see a slight parallel with New England.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

so pretty much 90% of the people are picking the pats to make it..but **** the bed when they make it...got it

 

[Oswlek]

I'm not questioning Rodgers' ability (I think he's an outstanding QB) it's more he's blown up into demi-god status and appreciated to the same level as guys who have produced year in and year out for the majority of their careers. Rodgers hasn't brought that prolonged level of performance to the NFL just yet.

Not to allow people to be confused, I believe Rodgers is an outstanding talent but Brees, Brady and Manning have been consistently excellent performers.

But he has. Since taking over as a starter in 2008, he's never thrown for less than 28 TDs in a full season, never thrown for more than 13 ints (three seasons with single digits, averaging ~9 per year) and has only had one season with less than 100 passer rating... and that was 93.8! Sure, it isn't the greatest stat in the world, but Rodgers is tops in NFL history in career passer rating, by a healthy margin.

EDIT: He's also been amongst the leaders at ypa every season of his career as well. He went from 10th in 2008 to 6th in 2009 to top 4 every year since then.

Did Brady have enough of a history to be considered a great QB going into the 2007 season? I can't imagine you'll say no, but that is the same respective position of Aaron's career... except he's got Brady beat by a country mile in actual production.

As far as I'm concerned, Rodgers deserves every accolade he receives.

 

[ausbacker]

But he has. Since taking over as a starter in 2008, he's never thrown for less than 28 TDs in a full season, never thrown for more than 13 ints (three seasons with single digits, averaging ~9 per year) and has only had one season with less than 100 passer rating... and that was 93.8! Sure, it isn't the greatest stat in the world, but Rodgers is tops in NFL history in career passer rating, by a healthy margin.

You're right. Rodgers was drafted into an excellent situation and has produced. The point you continue to miss is he has not produced to the same level as Brady, Brees and Manning just yet.

For some reason you're hung up on one point; I still believe Aaron Rodgers is an excellent Quarterback.

Did Brady have enough of a history to be considered a great QB going into the 2007 season? I can't imagine you'll say no, but that is the same respective position of Aaron's career... except he's got Brady beat by a country mile in actual production.

Brady was playing in a different era (let's not consider the rule changes that encourage offense since Goodell took the reigns) with a defensive team, not an offensive team. That said, I wouldn't have said Brady was an All World QB until 2007 as it was the first season Belichick gave him the tools to show that ability.

As far as I'm concerned, Rodgers deserves every accolade he receives.

I think he's an outstanding QB but like many people today, plaudits are thrown around far too easily for my liking.

 

[Oswlek]

The point you continue to miss is he has not produced to the same level as Brady, Brees and Manning just yet.

Plaudits are thrown around far too easily for my liking.

While I agree with your latter point - it seems everything has to be put into historical context within minutes, turning commentary into hyperbole contests - I can still find absolutely no evidence for your first claim. Rodgers has performed at a higher level than all three of them, behind the worst OL by a huge margin and the least help from a rushing attack. He even has a SB, so you can't discredit him there.

What the other three have on him is tenure, and nothing more. Other than, again, the whispers that he can be an arrogant d-bag.

EDIT to add: It should probably be mentioned that the other three have been paired with much stronger coaches. Payton and Belichick are Mt. Rushmore for this era, and Dungy/Fox are decent guys. Not great, but above average.

McCarthy is not nearly on that level. He is a below average coach... maybe even simply bad... who is carried by the roster. Some like to blame Rodgers for GB's sketchy record in close games, but just watch a few games and you'll see that McCarthy deserves the lion's share of that one.

 

[ausbacker]

While I agree with your latter point - it seems everything has to be put into historical context within minutes, turning commentary into hyperbole contests - I can still find absolutely no evidence for your first claim. Rodgers has performed at a higher level than all three of them, behind the worst OL by a huge margin and the least help from a rushing attack. He even has a SB, so you can't discredit him there.

What the other three have on him is tenure, and nothing more. Other than, again, the whispers that he can be an arrogant d-bag.

You're welcome to that opinion but I'm going to apply my contextual understanding of what the NFL has become.

• In 2013, Tom Brady threw for 4,343 with a bunch of rookies, his main asset on IR for most of the season and a converted college QB as his #1 target.
• In 2012, in his rookie season, Andrew Luck threw for 4,374 yards.
• In 2011, in his rookie season, Cam Newton threw for 4,051 yards.

What I am suggesting to you is, given the rule changes in the NFL, it is considerably easier for Quarterbacks to put up gaudy statistics in recent times. That is not a slight on anyone but a simple observation.

Stop pissing about with comments like discrediting Aaron Rodgers. I am not discrediting him at all. I have repeated it in multiple posts that I think he is an outstanding or excellent QB.

We're done. I won't respond to you in this thread past this post. Feel free to tee off.

 

[Oswlek]

When did offering up a contradictory opinion become "pissing"? Where did that come from?

I'm sorry if it offends you that someone would disagree with you, Aus. Since you brought up the new era, why don't we actually discuss the seasons in question with the QBs you mentioned? Seems like that would provide a lot more context than tossing some random, unrelated anecdotal examples.

Average full season since 2008

Rodgers... 65.9% comp / 4,266 yards / 34 TDs / 10.2 INTs / 8.2 YPA
Brady...... 64.2% comp / 4,540 yards / 32 TDs / 9.6 INTs / 7.8 YPA
Manning... 67.8% comp / 4,667 yards / 37 TDs / 13.2 INTs / 7.7 YPA
Brees...... 67.8% comp / 4,983 yards / 38 TDs / 15.8 INTs / 7.9 YPA

I could come up with something snarky, but I'll just let these numbers speak for themselves.