Evaluation and Development

[mayoclinic]

Watching college football and NFL games, I am stuck by how much divergence there is in player evaluation, and how poor the NFL is overall at player development. The bad teams are generally those which are poor at both.

Trevor Lawrence was a unanimous #1 pick overall in 2021. I never saw it. He looks like an average starter at best today against the Rams, and has never really broken out. A failure if both evaluation and development. Ryan Poles thought Drake Maye would kill a GM's career - how's that one going? Even guys I respect we're way off on Maye - I thought he was the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, Rob Staton of Seahawksdraftblog had a 2nd round grade on May. Why are we so divergent?

The Raiders needed an EDGE rusher in 2019, had one of the best talent evaluators in the business in Mike Mayock, and the #4 pick. They got one of the best in the business in Maxx Crosby, but with the #106 pick in the 4th round, not with #4 pick Cleland Ferrell.

Even the most exceptional talents still need to be developed. Work ethic and character are part of it, but teams need to coach players up and figure out how to use them effectively. There are tons of examples of teams wasting high pick after high pick by being incompetent at this.

For a multi-billion dollar professional league, the NFL seems really incompetent at evaluating talent and developing it. There are hundreds of examples: all the 1st round picks wasted on JAG QBs, over-hyped system products like Trent Richardson, players who regress like Ahmad Gardner.

It seems right now that the Pats are one of the better teams at evaluating players and identifying good fits and at player development. That has me very hopeful.

Thoughts?

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Mayock butchered that draft.
Both Ferell and Leatherwood were huge reaches, and left everyone scratching their heads.
That was simply erroneous on Mayock's part, all the analysts hated those picks where they were taken, so the masses were right on that occasion.

 

[Pape]

Ferrell was a worse pick than Cole Strange...

Seeing that a player has talent and developing that talent are two separate issues... if i knew the answer on how to bright that gap, I'd be working for an NFL franchise right about now...

 

[mayoclinic]

But any draft where you get Maxx Crosby is a success.

Pick Crosby at 4 and Ferrell at 106 and then assess the draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

I thought Brian Thomas was a stud last in the 2024 draft. He had a great rookie draft. What happened?

 

[ViperGTS]

I thought Brian Thomas was a stud last in the 2024 draft. He had a great rookie draft. What happened?

A **** organization with a sorta **** QB?

 

[TheRainMaker]

There's always been GM's goofs, but been really bad the last 10 years or so. Media has talked about this briefly, but there's a talent problem with coaches as they are getting fired at a alarming rate. And there seems to be too many nepo's in the front office.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Easy to cherry-pick individuals that turned out to be over-drafted or under-drafted. But by and large the process works - nearly 50% of all-pros were first rounders. And if you look at number of starting snaps, you see a dramatic decline by round drafted.
People are not machines - some get injured, some can't adjust to the NFL game where suddenly they aren't the best player on the field, some are immature and slack off or do dumb things and some end up with bad teams and bad coaches.

 

[mayoclinic]

Firing HC/GM a great way to interfere with development.

The NFL cycle:

1. Bad team hires new HC and GM, dump a lot of good players who don't fit new schemes, try to force-fit players. New coaching staff, some work well, others not so great, developmental continuity lacking.

2. Bad teams has high draft picks, hit or miss.

3. If lucky, get out of bottom-dweller he'll and stay consistent. Otherwise, rinse and repeat.

 

[TommyD4207]

A **** organization with a sorta **** QB?

I think the QB can be salvaged if he gets the opportunity. I dunno if he will.

 

[mayoclinic]

Easy to cherry-pick individuals that turned out to be over-drafted or under-drafted. But by and large the process works - nearly 50% of all-pros were first rounders. And if you look at number of starting snaps, you see a dramatic decline by round drafted.
People are not machines - some get injured, some can't adjust to the NFL game where suddenly they aren't the best player on the field, some are immature and slack off or do dumb things and some end up with bad teams and bad coaches.

Not cherry picking, I'm assuming a 50% failure rate. If you're not under-drafted you're over-dradted. But there seems to be a real failure of player evaluation and development in a multi-billion dollar professional league.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Not cherry picking, I'm assuming a 50% failure rate. If you're not under-drafted you're over-dradted. But there seems to be a real failure of player evaluation and development in a multi-billion dollar professional league.

There are so, so many reasons for misses.
Off the top of my head:
1) You simply cannot know how hard someone will study/prepare/work once they get life changing money.
2) you need coaches that both know how to win and know how to develop young players. There is such a pressure to win now that it hard to develop raw players if they will hurt you on game day. Those are two different skill sets and it is unusual for a coach to have both. Those coaches will eventually get other/bigger opportunities.
3) The pro game and NCAA are quite different- even more so with the transfer portal. Young players no longer have to deal with adversity in a situation- they can just to a different situation.
4) in addition to have NFL caliber skills, the team around him has to support his strengths and mask his weaknesses. Patrick Chung is the classic example of the exact same player who had to be used differently and have a different supporting cast. Similarly, the Legion of Boom had great success targeting a totally different kind of corner play style than the rest of the league was looking for.
5) GM’s and Head Coaches aren’t always on the same page.

The list goes on and on

 

[PatsFan2]

I thought Brian Thomas was a stud last in the 2024 draft. He had a great rookie draft. What happened?

T Lawrence is his QB Nuff said!

 

[upstater1]

Watching college football and NFL games, I am stuck by how much divergence there is in player evaluation, and how poor the NFL is overall at player development. The bad teams are generally those which are poor at both.

Trevor Lawrence was a unanimous #1 pick overall in 2021. I never saw it. He looks like an average starter at best today against the Rams, and has never really broken out. A failure if both evaluation and development. Ryan Poles thought Drake Maye would kill a GM's career - how's that one going? Even guys I respect we're way off on Maye - I thought he was the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, Rob Staton of Seahawksdraftblog had a 2nd round grade on May. Why are we so divergent?

The Raiders needed an EDGE rusher in 2019, had one of the best talent evaluators in the business in Mike Mayock, and the #4 pick. They got one of the best in the business in Maxx Crosby, but with the #106 pick in the 4th round, not with #4 pick Cleland Ferrell.

Even the most exceptional talents still need to be developed. Work ethic and character are part of it, but teams need to coach players up and figure out how to use them effectively. There are tons of examples of teams wasting high pick after high pick by being incompetent at this.

For a multi-billion dollar professional league, the NFL seems really incompetent at evaluating talent and developing it. There are hundreds of examples: all the 1st round picks wasted on JAG QBs, over-hyped system products like Trent Richardson, players who regress like Ahmad Gardner.

It seems right now that the Pats are one of the better teams at evaluating players and identifying good fits and at player development. That has me very hopeful.

Thoughts?

I think what happens is some people who watch college ball closely find undervalued players and so their ego inflates.

I watch a lot of college ball and I could not believe Marino dropped that much. When Marino became a star, my friends reminded me that I told them he would be one of the greats.

I saw Favre play in the all-star games in college and he looked unbelievably good.

I predicted Aaron Rodgers would be a great one.

What I won't tell you is that I was fairly convinced that Jeff George and Sam Bradford would be just as good as Marino, Favre and Rdogers.

All 5 of these QBs passed the eye test.

3 of them were fantastic.

2 of them were the ultimate duds.

 

[TommyD4207]

I think what happens is some people who watch college ball closely find undervalued players and so their ego inflates.

I watch a lot of college ball and I could not believe Marino dropped that much. When Marino became a star, my friends reminded me that I told them he would be one of the greats.

I saw Favre play in the all-star games in college and he looked unbelievably good.

I predicted Aaron Rodgers would be a great one.

What I won't tell you is that I was fairly convinced that Jeff George and Sam Bradford would be just as good as Marino, Favre and Rdogers.

All 5 of these QBs passed the eye test.

3 of them were fantastic.

2 of them were the ultimate duds.

Bradford was injuries. When he had healthy stretches he was actually good.
So was George when he laid off the booze.

 

[manxman2601]

I've been thinking about that with some our picks, struggling a bit - Wilson, Henderson and, to a lesser degree, Woodson. I think it comes down to the difference in game speed, quickness and intensity between CFB and the NFL. There is a vast difference between the two, even, say, stepping up from the SEC. It takes time to adjust and requires patience.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think patience is a big part of it. The NFL has become very impatient. The days of Aaron Rodgers sitting for years behind Brett Favre are long gone.

We've seen a lot of players succeed recently who struggled coming out.

I also think the college system is changing with the NIL money and use of the transfer portal. A lot of the college players look a lot more pro-ready than in the past. Changes of coaches, schemes and personnel may help with the transition to the pro level.

 

[pazrul72]

I think there are a lot of reasons for it and many have already been mentioned, can't know for sure their heart, will, desire, relentless drive to improve once they get, what they think, is FU money. Are they winning on ability or can they continue to be as impressive against NFL players? Are they going to a coaching staff that knows how to use them as a piece in a puzzle or just saying we expect him to be an 85 madden player?

The biggest one touched on is lack of patience, as we saw with Mayo (right decision just using it as an example) coaches can get as little as one year if the players aren't producing on the field. There is no way as a coach you can afford to give a player a year or two to learn and get better. What the NFL really needs is a minor league filter system where raw prospects can develop without the pressure. Couple of reasons that will never happen and things like the Arena league show why.

Money is #1. As a player you are putting you long term health on the line every single play you line up in the NFL. For most the payday or the hope of life changing generational is enough to say it's worth it. In an Arena league type developmental place you aren't getting millions, probably not a ton more then a regular joe, while needing to spend a ton on staying in peak athletic form. Think of the stories of Devito living with his parents, Edelman and Slater shacking up together, now make it an entire league like that. Takes a certain personality that's uncommon.

#2 is how the teams are split up. Clearly a 32 development team league is unsustainable, so how many teams do you have? How are resources split between the teams? Are their rules for poaching players and compensation for players poached? I could see something like 8 teams one per division functioning much like the current practice squad, but what happens when you want those players practicing with your current team? Alot of practice squad guys are really just skilled tackling dummies you don't give AF if they get hurt or not. Not a guy you want playing with another team when you need them to help get your pro team ready.

Anyway TLDR like everything money is your answer. Better to accept the occasional lottery ticket 7th round star then invest on development

 

[PatsFan2]

Watching college football and NFL games, I am stuck by how much divergence there is in player evaluation, and how poor the NFL is overall at player development. The bad teams are generally those which are poor at both.

Trevor Lawrence was a unanimous #1 pick overall in 2021. I never saw it. He looks like an average starter at best today against the Rams, and has never really broken out. A failure if both evaluation and development. Ryan Poles thought Drake Maye would kill a GM's career - how's that one going? Even guys I respect we're way off on Maye - I thought he was the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, Rob Staton of Seahawksdraftblog had a 2nd round grade on May. Why are we so divergent?

The Raiders needed an EDGE rusher in 2019, had one of the best talent evaluators in the business in Mike Mayock, and the #4 pick. They got one of the best in the business in Maxx Crosby, but with the #106 pick in the 4th round, not with #4 pick Cleland Ferrell.

Even the most exceptional talents still need to be developed. Work ethic and character are part of it, but teams need to coach players up and figure out how to use them effectively. There are tons of examples of teams wasting high pick after high pick by being incompetent at this.

For a multi-billion dollar professional league, the NFL seems really incompetent at evaluating talent and developing it. There are hundreds of examples: all the 1st round picks wasted on JAG QBs, over-hyped system products like Trent Richardson, players who regress like Ahmad Gardner.

It seems right now that the Pats are one of the better teams at evaluating players and identifying good fits and at player development. That has me very hopeful.

Thoughts?

That was one of the reasons we were the Best and sustained our window through the Dynasty years. Then BB got overconfident and screwed it all up with his quote and quote Reach selections. I am just hoping we don't lose a lot of our Coaches.

 

[PatsFan2]

We know the NFL never say never: I know I said Josh McDaniels would never get another HC-Gig. But his success with Drake Maye is not going unnoticed. You know some Owner will back up the brinks: it's Josh McDaniels call either way. I know I would be tempted Josh McDaniels is Big Time.