ESPN Insider already declaring Ron Brace a bust?

[patchick]

That's kind of a silly statement. NO WAY Brace would be released in year one unless his arms fell off.

Agreed. Even Chad Jackson got 3 training camps. (And last I heard, Sands didn't have $3 million in guaranteed money like Brace.)

 

[letekro]

I have to disagree. I haven't seen a single post say a single negative word about Myron Pryor.

That's the WHOLE POINT. If Brace is next in line after Pryor, and Pryor is playing well, and everyone agrees on that point, then how can you possibly draw conclusions about Brace being a bust? The only thing you can infer from this is that he is not as good as Pryor right now. If on the other hand, Pryor were playing poorly, you could infer that the coaches have a low opinion of Brace.

 

[Frezo]

FF? You think people are concerned about Brace because they drafted a run-stuffing backup NT for their fantasy teams?

Depth? :confused2:
I don't know much about FF.

 

[Oswlek]

Nope, Wilfork has never once been a healthy scratch.

I'm a little depressed by the multiple posts offering Marquise Hill as a positive comparison, given that Hill was routinely inactive even in his third year and recorded a total of 2 tackles in his career.

I really didn't set out to be the voice of doom in this thread. I just think that assuming it's nothing but a "numbers game" is a little over-sanguine.

Sure, if the guy was playing well enough to force himself onto the field, NE would make sure he was out there. But look at how many DLs NE typically activates and you will see that they are doing the same now as they ever did. Pryor is just the better player at this point.

You can't activate everyone. If Brace is still inactive even with Green out, then I will consider raising an eyebrow.

 

[Oswlek]

That's the WHOLE POINT. If Brace is next in line after Pryor, and Pryor is playing well, and everyone agrees on that point, then how can you possibly draw conclusions about Brace being a bust? The only thing you can infer from this is that he is not as good as Pryor right now. If on the other hand, Pryor were playing poorly, you could infer that the coaches have a low opinion of Brace.

Precisely. If NE's DL were struggling, or if they were trotting out fewer guys than normal and still not activating Brace, then questions could be raised. At this point everyone is playing well and NE is activating a historically appropriate number of DLs. All that can be infered is that NE feels Brace isn't as good as the 5-6 guys ahead of him (or as useful as TBC and Burgess).

 

[VJCPatriot]

Pryor's success does not necessarily mean Brace's failure. With Green out to injury, we may see more of Brace in the near future. So don't be too quick to judge.

 

[patchick]

That's the WHOLE POINT. If Brace is next in line after Pryor, and Pryor is playing well, and everyone agrees on that point, then how can you possibly draw conclusions about Brace being a bust? The only thing you can infer from this is that he is not as good as Pryor right now. If on the other hand, Pryor were playing poorly, you could infer that the coaches have a low opinion of Brace.

OK...but you conveniently cut the second half of my post, which was rather germane to the point.

Here's where I'm coming from: I happily acknowledge the very pleasant surprise that is Myron Pryor, and his role in keeping other DTs off the field. It's certainly possible that Brace is performing up to expectations, but that guys like Pryor are so far above expectations that there's no room for him at the moment. (We'll just ignore the pesky Sands problem.)

But I think a lot of people are taking a huge logical leap by concluding that the fact that Pryor has pretty much forced his way into the lineup means Brace is doing fine. It's the classic absence of evidence = evidence of absence mistake. All we really know is that Brace hasn't been cracking the 45, and that such a rookie history has boded ill for players in the past. I look forward to Brace proving the exception.

 

[letekro]

OK...but you conveniently cut the second half of my post, which was rather germane to the point.

Here's where I'm coming from: I happily acknowledge the very pleasant surprise that is Myron Pryor, and his role in keeping other DTs off the field. It's certainly possible that Brace is performing up to expectations, but that guys like Pryor are so far above expectations that there's no room for him at the moment. (We'll just ignore the pesky Sands problem.)

But I think a lot of people are taking a huge logical leap by concluding that the fact that Pryor has pretty much forced his way into the lineup means Brace is doing fine. It's the classic absence of evidence = evidence of absence mistake. All we really know is that Brace hasn't been cracking the 45, and that such a rookie history has boded ill for players in the past. I look forward to Brace proving the exception.

If they sign a jag now instead of promoting Brace your argument is bolstered. We shall see. Of course, whatever they do, it is far too early to be labeling someone a bust.

 

[Synovia]

If they sign a jag now instead of promoting Brace your argument is bolstered.

Not really.


If they sign a UDFA Jag, yeah, but signing a guy like Sands, who is an NFL veteran, is a different thing. Bellichick has said repeatedly that he'd rather have a player who doesn't make mistakes than a better player who does. You'd expect a vet to know what hes supposed to do. A rookie? Not so much.


The truth of it is, we know very little about Brace, and thats neither good nor bad.

 

[Deus Irae]

New England's defensive line has been struggling this season, both against the run and pass. The idea that people shouldn't be at least questioning Brace at this point, when half the planet has been brought in for a look there, is a bit too 'rosy' a perspective for me.

Yes, it's far too early to be forming any final opinion of Brace and his time in the NFL. That's makes any article calling him a 'bust' a bit foolish. However, just as Wheatley being the #5 cornerback on a team with no legitimate #1 corner offers us some insight into his situation, Brace being somewhere around #452 on the defensive line depth chart offers a window into where the coaching staff feels he is, in a football sense, right now.

 

[upstater1]

New England's defensive line has been struggling this season, both against the run and pass. The idea that people shouldn't be at least questioning Brace at this point, when half the planet has been brought in for a look there, is a bit too 'rosy' a perspective for me.

Yes, it's far too early to be forming any final opinion of Brace and his time in the NFL. That's makes any article calling him a 'bust' a bit foolish. However, just as Wheatley being the #5 cornerback on a team with no legitimate #1 corner offers us some insight into his situation, Brace being somewhere around #452 on the defensive line depth chart offers a window into where the coaching staff feels he is, in a football sense, right now.

I saw no struggles by the line. It's the same read-react as always. I think the Brace situation can be understood easily with respect to the Seymour trade. Wilfork is now a Patriot for the next several years provided he doesn't want 9 or 10 a year. This means BB doesn't need to press Brace into service right now, and that Brace will be allowed to come along the same way that Jarvis Green and others did. Slowly. If BB was concerned about the DL's future, he would put Brace out there to see what he can do, the same way that BB put Sands out there and then unceremoniously cut him the next week.

The DL--with the exception of Jarvis Green--is fixed for the Patriots for a few years.

 

[Oswlek]

OK...but you conveniently cut the second half of my post, which was rather germane to the point.

Here's where I'm coming from: I happily acknowledge the very pleasant surprise that is Myron Pryor, and his role in keeping other DTs off the field. It's certainly possible that Brace is performing up to expectations, but that guys like Pryor are so far above expectations that there's no room for him at the moment. (We'll just ignore the pesky Sands problem.)

But I think a lot of people are taking a huge logical leap by concluding that the fact that Pryor has pretty much forced his way into the lineup means Brace is doing fine. It's the classic absence of evidence = evidence of absence mistake. All we really know is that Brace hasn't been cracking the 45, and that such a rookie history has boded ill for players in the past. I look forward to Brace proving the exception.

You yourself are conveniently overlooking a few things. First off, from an earlier post

Here's an honest question: can you think of any BB-era Pats rookie, at any position except QB & OL, who spend a significant chunk of his rookie year as a healthy scratch but ended up a starter?

Issue #1 - a significant number of non-scratched rookies leveraged contributions to special teams to be activated. From there they might have played a couple base snaps, but it wasn't that role that got them on the field. Brace doesn't have that luxury.

Issue #2 - Excluding the OL is inherantly improper because it is very similar to the DL. They rotate more DL players than they do OL, but both units - due to marginal special teams contributions - have a fixed number of spots. It doesn't matter how good the 9th OL is, if he isn't better than the 8 above him he isn't active.

Issue #3 - Once you add TBC and Burgess into the rotations, NE has never had this much depth at DL. Again, it should come as no surprise that one of Pryor or Brace is inactive. There are a lot of bodies there and they don't offer much to special teams.

Now, all that said, I agree that you can't conclude Brace is slightly behind Pryor. But neither can you conclude Brace's inactivity is a red flag either. At this point, the only thing to go on is his preseason performance, and that was certainly adequate.

 

[Oswlek]

New England's defensive line has been struggling this season, both against the run and pass. The idea that people shouldn't be at least questioning Brace at this point, when half the planet has been brought in for a look there, is a bit too 'rosy' a perspective for me.

Yes, it's far too early to be forming any final opinion of Brace and his time in the NFL. That's makes any article calling him a 'bust' a bit foolish. However, just as Wheatley being the #5 cornerback on a team with no legitimate #1 corner offers us some insight into his situation, Brace being somewhere around #452 on the defensive line depth chart offers a window into where the coaching staff feels he is, in a football sense, right now.

Not sure I'm seeing this DL "struggling". Most of the longer runs come when NE plugs TBC and Burgess in there and are expecting pass. Brace wouldn't be on the field anyway in those downs.

And struggles against the pass were earlier in the year. They have been getting solid pressure lately. Aside from that, just as above, Brace wouldn't be in on too many passing downs at this point anyway.

EDIT: The only guy I felt was struggling was Jarvis, and it seems as if he might have been injured. On top of that, consideing BB's preference for guys to be in their roles, Green at 80% would be taken over Brace most likely anyway.

I will start to be a bit more concerned if Brace still isn't active this week. Miami being a strong running team and with Green out, it should open the door for him.

 

[Synovia]

Wilfork is now a Patriot for the next several years provided he doesn't want 9 or 10 a year.

I guarantee he gets atleast 9 or 10 a year. 12 is about Market at this point.

 

[Deus Irae]

I saw no struggles by the line. It's the same read-react as always. I think the Brace situation can be understood easily with respect to the Seymour trade. Wilfork is now a Patriot for the next several years provided he doesn't want 9 or 10 a year. This means BB doesn't need to press Brace into service right now, and that Brace will be allowed to come along the same way that Jarvis Green and others did. Slowly. If BB was concerned about the DL's future, he would put Brace out there to see what he can do, the same way that BB put Sands out there and then unceremoniously cut him the next week.

The DL--with the exception of Jarvis Green--is fixed for the Patriots for a few years.

The team is #22 in the league against the run and can't get pressure bringing just 4 men in the passing game. Brace is supposed to be a run stopper. Brace is playing about as many snaps in real games as you and I are, and has 1 more tackle than do we.

Again, it's his first season, and that season won't be even at the halfway point until after the Miami game. It's far too early to label him as a bust. However, in context, his lack of playing time, and number of games on the inactive list, should bring questions.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I'm a little depressed by the multiple posts offering Marquise Hill as a positive comparison, given that Hill was routinely inactive even in his third year and recorded a total of 2 tackles in his career.
.

Good news!

The posts were NEGATIVE comparisons.

 

[Synovia]

The team is #22 in the league against the run and can't get pressure bringing just 4 men in the passing game.

According to what? Are you looking at the total yards stats again? What have I told you about them? Do you really think the Titans ran the ball well? Do you think the Patriots "couldn't stop the run" against the titans? While they were up by 50 points?


Football outsiders has the Patriots Rush defense as -13%. Good for 10th in the league. They're within 1% of Baltimore, Philly, and Pittsburgh.

 

[Oswlek]

According to what? Are you looking at the total yards stats again? What have I told you about them? Do you really think the Titans ran the ball well? Do you think the Patriots "couldn't stop the run" against the titans? While they were up by 50 points?


Football outsiders has the Patriots Rush defense as -13%. Good for 10th in the league. They're within 1% of Baltimore, Philly, and Pittsburgh.

Correct. And, again, a lot of the rushing yardage against NE has come when they had the smaller, speed unit on, when Brace would not have been on the field.

 

[patchick]

Issue #2 - Excluding the OL is inherantly improper because it is very similar to the DL. They rotate more DL players than they do OL, but both units - due to marginal special teams contributions - have a fixed number of spots. It doesn't matter how good the 9th OL is, if he isn't better than the 8 above him he isn't active.

Fair point, let's include the OL then. I haven't researched it fully, but I think the only example there would be Tom Ashworth, who was making a position shift to the OL as an undrafted rookie.

Believe it or not, I'm not trying to bash Brace or hit any panic buttons. I just think that his current path is a little worrisome. A bunch of posters have recalled DLs like Warren, Wilfork and Green starting similarly slowly, but all of them were every-day actives with some starts thrown in as rookies. Even Mike Wright played more as a rookie than Brace has, with Seymour, Wilfork, Warren & Green among the bodies in front of him.

As I've said, though, I'm looking forward to Brace breaking the pattern and developing strongly.

 

[upstater1]

The team is #22 in the league against the run and can't get pressure bringing just 4 men in the passing game. Brace is supposed to be a run stopper. Brace is playing about as many snaps in real games as you and I are, and has 1 more tackle than do we.

Again, it's his first season, and that season won't be even at the halfway point until after the Miami game. It's far too early to label him as a bust. However, in context, his lack of playing time, and number of games on the inactive list, should bring questions.

In our best years, our stats always looked shoddy. And then you look at points, and we're doing great. We're back to bend but don't break. Our D doesn't lay down points.