Early odds for 2021 games

[sb1]

Oddsmakers: Patriots will finish with a losing record again in 2021 - Pats Pulpit


Pats are +3.5 against the Bucs but +5.5 against the Colts? lol

The link title on that page is worthless as this is not at all what the oddsmakers "think" or how lines work.

 

[XLIX]

Oddsmakers: Patriots will finish with a losing record again in 2021 - Pats Pulpit
View attachment 32992

Pats are +3.5 against the Bucs but +5.5 against the Colts? lol

The link title on that page is worthless as this is not at all what the oddsmakers "think" or how lines work.

I don't think any books are taking action on individual games past week 1 so yes, the above lines (save Miami) are worthless. However, they are calculated simply by looking at each team's power index and adjusting for HFA. Of course, different sources use different power indexes so this is really just one sportsbook's own rankings.

 

[Sicilian]

Oddsmakers: Patriots will finish with a losing record again in 2021 - Pats Pulpit
View attachment 32992

Pats are +3.5 against the Bucs but +5.5 against the Colts? lol

The link title on that page is worthless as this is not at all what the oddsmakers "think" or how lines work.

Remember that these tend to swing by 3 points towards the home team. So on a neutral field, they'd be +6.5 against the Bucs and +2.5 against Indy.

EDIT: As another example, this is why they're -2.5 at home against Miami and +2.5 on the road against Miami. So it looks like they're adding 2.5 for the road team. So really it would be +6 against the Bucs and +3 against Indy on a neutral field.

 

[jmt57]

So theoretically the Patriots should go 9-8 or 8-9, if there are an equal number of upsets won and upsets lost.

To me I feel they could go anywhere from 12-5 to 6-11, so 9-8/8-9 sounds about right.

Most parlors currently have the Pats over/under win total at nine.

NFL Win Totals | Over Under On Season Long Wins For 2023

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[VectorPrime]

This is impossible to bet without knowing who the hell is gonna be the QB.

 

[stinkypete]

Some of these lines are absurd.

+1.5 at Atl? That was a 4 win team and Kyle Pitts alone is not going to make them much better.
+5.5 at Indy? With Carson Wentz starting? Not impressed with Indy.
Pick vs Carolina? Sam Darnold's going to win a game in Foxboro?

Atl and Carolina are W's regardless of who plays QB here.

 

[Nikolai]

So basically...no one is really sure.