Early I know but the Playoff Machine is back.

[fnordcircle]

2012 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

Playing with it I learned something. The Patriots only need 1 loss from the Ravens. If it is against the Broncos in Week 15.

Because you end up with a rock/paper/scissors logjam where the Ravens beat us the Broncos beat the Ravens and we beat the Broncos meaning each team wins the HTH tiebreaker against one of the other two and loses the HTH tiebreaker against the other.

If the Patriots win out and the Broncos beat the Ravens we'll get the #2 seed.

Edit: that's only for the 2nd seed if the Ravens/Broncos and Patriots are tied for a final season record.

If we win out and end up tied with the Texans and Ravens @13-3 we'll win the #1 seed for the same reason. But I think the Texans will realistically end 14-2. Meaning if we end up 13-3 along with the Ravens then we actually need the Broncos to beat the Ravens and end up 13-3 as well so we can get the aforementioned bye.

 

[PP2]

2012 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

Playing with it I learned something. The Patriots only need 1 loss from the Ravens. If it is against the Broncos in Week 15.

Because you end up with a rock/paper/scissors logjam where the Ravens beat us the Broncos beat the Ravens and we beat the Broncos meaning each team wins the HTH tiebreaker against one of the other two and loses the HTH tiebreaker against the other.

If the Patriots win out and the Broncos beat the Ravens we'll get the #2 seed.

Texans have to play at Colts (after Colts play them). I think the Colts will beat them (too good to go 0-2 vs. the Texans) and so will we, so we have a realistic chance at #1.

I've mentioned that I believe we will win out the rest of our schedule. No reason for us not to.

 

[RodThePat]

Texans have to play at Colts (after Colts play them). I think the Colts will beat them (too good to go 0-2 vs. the Texans) and so will we, so we have a realistic chance at #1.

I've mentioned that I believe we will win out the rest of our schedule. No reason for us not to.

The Patriots might very well run the table, but there's plenty of reasons for them not to. Beating the Texans and 49ers in back-to-back weeks without Gronk will be extremely difficult.

 

[Kontradiction]

Texans have to play at Colts (after Colts play them). I think the Colts will beat them (too good to go 0-2 vs. the Texans) and so will we, so we have a realistic chance at #1.

I've mentioned that I believe we will win out the rest of our schedule. No reason for us not to.

Houston's issues on defense seem to be related to covering receivers and TE's down the seam. That's going to hurt with Gronk out, but we can still take advtange of it with Welker and Hernandez. Defensively, they may still be able to throw the ball on us, but the gameplan will most likely be to shut down Foster.

 

[fnordcircle]

The Patriots might very well run the table, but there's plenty of reasons for them not to. Beating the Texans and 49ers in back-to-back weeks without Gronk will be extremely difficult.

I'm guilty of generally being overly optimistic.

But I see a Texans and SF team who have plateaued. I think the Patriots have their best football - especially on defense - ahead of them.

Will that make us good enough to beat those two teams? I think so.

 

[Sciz]

Pats get #1 seed if:
Texans lose to Pats and one other team
Ravens lose to Denver
Patriots win out

 

[tatepatsfan]

Pats get #1 seed if:
Texans lose to Pats and one other team
Ravens lose to Denver
Patriots win out

I realize this is the outcome the playoff machine provides, but I believe it's wrong. The Ravens are presently 8-2 and we're 7-3. They own the tiebreaker over us. If we win out and the Ravens only lose one of their last six, we'd both be 13-3 and they would have the advantage. They have to lose a minimum of two games for us to pass them.

 

[Foxypats]

I don't know if SF has plateud. Did you see them play yesterday? I know that was without Cutler, but the D was flying all over the field. Aldon Smith and Justin Smith are a scary combo. Plus add in Bowman to the mix ! I believe the Patriots will have a much harder time against the Niners than the Texans.
The Patriots game plan will be to stop Gore first and foremost.

Just based on last night, I wonder if a QB controversy is brewing over there? This Kid Kapernick(sp) played lights out against a vaunted Bears D!!

 

[Sciz]

I realize this is the outcome the playoff machine provides, but I believe it's wrong. The Ravens are presently 8-2 and we're 7-3. They own the tiebreaker over us. If we win out and the Ravens only lose one of their last six, we'd both be 13-3 and they would have the advantage. They have to lose a minimum of two games for us to pass them.

That's where Broncos beating the Ravens comes into play. It forces a three way tie with each team having the head to head tiebreaker over the other.

Next tiebreaker is divisional record. In this scenario, each team would be 6-0 in the division.

The third tiebreaker is record against common opponents. The only common opponent between all three is the Texans, who have beaten the Broncos and Ravens, but in this scenario would have lost to the Pats, so the Pats win the third tiebreaker.

 

[BrainTrust66]

That's where Broncos beating the Ravens comes into play. It forces a three way tie with each team having the head to head tiebreaker over the other.

Next tiebreaker is divisional record. In this scenario, each team would be 6-0 in the division.

The third tiebreaker is record against common opponents. The only common opponent between all three is the Texans, who have beaten the Broncos and Ravens, but in this scenario would have lost to the Pats, so the Pats win the third tiebreaker.

You see, this is why I like the "three-way"

 

[fnordcircle]

I realize this is the outcome the playoff machine provides, but I believe it's wrong. The Ravens are presently 8-2 and we're 7-3. They own the tiebreaker over us. If we win out and the Ravens only lose one of their last six, we'd both be 13-3 and they would have the advantage. They have to lose a minimum of two games for us to pass them.

If Baltimore loses to Denver and Denver, NE and Baltimore all end up 13-3 we'd get the #2 seed because the Head to Head tie-breaker would be nullified since everyone of those 3 teams has a Head to Head tie-breaker against one of the other two.

 

[Patjew]

Wow, that's very cool. Even though it's very early it's nice to know that the Pats control their own bye destiny.

 

[Patjew]

You see, this is why I like the "three-way"

Is that a bye-sexual joke?

 

[tatepatsfan]

That's where Broncos beating the Ravens comes into play. It forces a three way tie with each team having the head to head tiebreaker over the other.

Next tiebreaker is divisional record. In this scenario, each team would be 6-0 in the division.

The third tiebreaker is record against common opponents. The only common opponent between all three is the Texans, who have beaten the Broncos and Ravens, but in this scenario would have lost to the Pats, so the Pats win the third tiebreaker.

Awesome - thanks for the explanation