Drake Maye would be the IDEAL pick for the Patriots at #3

[Ivan]

JD refused to be measured at the Combine, so the jury's still out on his actual measurements. I guess we'll all find out in LSU's Pro Day on 3/27.

Those have been his measurements for quite a while, I doubt you will see much if any difference at his pro day.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

This is interesting, though now we have the undeniable fact that McCarthy has turned this into a big-4. Plus Harrison is either the 1st or 2nd best overall player. There's never been a draft where picks 1-4 have been all QB's. All that strongly suggests we could trade down to 5 and have one of the QB's fall to us.

 

[Tunescribe]

1. I do not think he will be there. I suspect bears will take Maye and Commanders take Williams
2. Daniels is an intriguing prospect but do not think he is a good fit for Patriots as I doubt he will be a good cold weather and snow QB
3. I think Maye (like Josh Williams) will be more reliable in the snow and cold weather
4. I would even consider trading up to 2 or 1 to get Maye, even if it meant trading next years #1
5. I do not believe Baker Mayfield will leave Tampa Bay based on what he has said. That does not leave a whole lot in the free agent pool to go after if Pats decide they want o trade down and pick an OL
6. If they do trade down I would not want to go lower than 7 and would want them to take Alt or the Penn State guy
7. Picking a WR in the top 10 when you do not have a QB or an OL is unwise
8. I think Bears will surprise everyone and take Maye at 1
9. Go NINERS!!!!

If I recall correctly, you started previous threads with near-identical titles for Williams and Daniels.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I read 219.

McCarthy was 219 at the combine, so he added 15 lbs, and to me he looked noticeably heavier and not in a good way. He chose not to run the 40 which suggests he's now going to drop some of that weight and run at his pro day. He did however have a very impressive 3 cone drill at the combine, with the 6th best time across all players which is ridiculous for a QB.

 

[NashuaPats]

If you watch the first 20 seconds of this video, you’ll see Daniels next to MHJ, Nix and Penix. Nix and Penix are both about 215. MHJ weighed in at 209. Daniels is noticeably skinnier and has a narrower frame than them. I doubt he’s over 200.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

If I recall correctly, you started previous threads with near-identical titles for Williams and Daniels.

I have evolved my thinking as more details became available.

 

[The Gr8est]

View attachment 56816
This is interesting, though now we have the undeniable fact that McCarthy has turned this into a big-4. Plus Harrison is either the 1st or 2nd best overall player. There's never been a draft where picks 1-4 have been all QB's. All that strongly suggests we could trade down to 5 and have one of the QB's fall to us.

Here is some context to those QBs who were drafted after trading down.

2013- Manuel was the only 1st round QB taken that year. Missing at 16 with added picks, is better than missing at 8.

2003 - Carson Palmer went 1st overall. Would he have been worth trading up for? Grossman was the only other 1st round QB that year.

2002 - David Carr went 1st and Joey Harrington went 3rd. What would trading up from 21 have cost? Ramsey was only other QB in 1st round.

1999 - Tim Couch went 1st and Donovan McNabb went 2nd. Akili Smith went 3rd.
McNown was the only other QB drafted in the 1st that year.

Of all of those scenarios the only miss by trading down was Steve McNair, who went #3 in 1995. No other QBs taken in 1st round.

Look at 1999 when QBs were the first three picks. Of particular note, look how the QB picked at #3 fared.

This is hardly a damning indictment of trading down for QBs.

 

[MahomestoKelce]

Of course the late round picks fail more, at every position and not just QB. But a higher pick doesn't guarantee anything. Here's a list of HOF QBs (plus Brady) & the number of non-HOF QBs that were drafted before them.

Starr-8
Brady-6
Blanda-8
Unitas-3
Montana-3
Fouts-5
Stabler-3
Jurgensen-4
Van Brocklin-5
Marino-3
Favre-2
Roethlisberger-2
There are also 8 more who were drafted behind 1 other QB.

That's a ****load of misses from people who are paid to make those choices.

And this is the list of all of the #1 picks that aren't in the HOF yet. Only a few have any chance to get there.

2023	Bryce	Young
2021	Tevor	Lawrence
2020	Joe	Burrow
2019	Kyler	Murray
2018	Baker	Mayfield
2016	Jared	Goff
2015	Jameis	Winston
2012	Andrew	Luck
2011	Cant	Newton
2010	Sam	Bradford
2009	Matthew	Stafford
2007	JeMarcus	Russell
2005	Alex	Smith
2004	Eli	Manning
2003	Carson	Palmer
2002	David	Carr
2001	Michael	Vick
99	Tim	Couch
93	Drew	Bledsoe
90	Jeff	George
87	Vinny	Testaverde
75	Steve	Bartkowski
64	Jack	Concannon
63	Terry	Baker
62	Roman	Gabriel
59	Randy	Duncan
58	King	Hill
55	George	Shaw
54	Bobby	Garrett
52	Billy	Wade

Like I keep saying, it's a crap shoot and a top pick is no sure thing.

Everything is a crap shoot though. You listed the many busts in round one. And the successes in other rounds. The truth is that the opposite is true.

You are more likely to end up with the next Kenny Pickett than Burrow in the later rounds.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Those have been his measurements for quite a while, I doubt you will see much if any difference at his pro day.

IME, the measurements from college can be quite different from the actual figures we see from Senior/Shrine Bowls, Combine/ Pro Days. I hope those're his actual measurements because I'm a Jayden guy.

 

[MahomestoKelce]

I'd be stunned if they trade out of three and don't select Maye/Daniels. Especially considering a team could jump them for McCarthy. It's too risky. To not get one of those three, and have a bad year in 2024, probably means Mayo is one and done. There's no coming back from a mistake that bad.

Here's a question: If the Patriots were in the NFC, would they be more likely to take picks and trade down? I believe so. Other than Love, I'm not seeing a franchise altering QB. Hurts and Dak are close. Not quite there imo. Even though they played longer than Love.

AFC is a different story.

 

[condon84]

The team drafting McCarthy in the 1st round is going to regret it. If anyone saw him play have seen him show that he is nowhere near accurate enough. If we're looking at pure quarterbacking play, Penix has shown more as far as arm strength, accuracy, and reading defenses.

 

[Nunchucks]

I do not get the MCarth6 hype as all

 

[Ivan]

I read 219.

I went by his combine numbers.

Here is some context to those QBs who were drafted after trading down.

2013- Manuel was the only 1st round QB taken that year. Missing at 16 with added picks, is better than missing at 8.

2003 - Carson Palmer went 1st overall. Would he have been worth trading up for? Grossman was the only other 1st round QB that year.

2002 - David Carr went 1st and Joey Harrington went 3rd. What would trading up from 21 have cost? Ramsey was only other QB in 1st round.

1999 - Tim Couch went 1st and Donovan McNabb went 2nd. Akili Smith went 3rd.
McNown was the only other QB drafted in the 1st that year.

Of all of those scenarios the only miss by trading down was Steve McNair, who went #3 in 1995. No other QBs taken in 1st round.

Look at 1999 when QBs were the first three picks. Of particular note, look how the QB picked at #3 fared.

This is hardly a damning indictment of trading down for QBs.

Listing round one busts is idiotic, that can be done at every position. What matters is how they play and em who they are, not whether a draft pick at their position busted in the past. If that were the case then the Patriots should wait until the 199th pick every year to draft a QB, except it would have to be the 7th QB in that draft, the other 6 busted, and they shouldn’t take a risk like that.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

The team drafting McCarthy in the 1st round is going to regret it. If anyone saw him play have seen him show that he is nowhere near accurate enough. If we're looking at pure quarterbacking play, Penix has shown more as far as arm strength, accuracy, and reading defenses.

You raise a good poibt. Penix is probably being underated. He may be the best pure passer available, but age and injuries have lowered his stock.
Some team will het a bargain blue chipper.

 

[The Gr8est]

I went by his combine numbers.


Listing round one busts is idiotic, that can be done at every position. What matters is how they play and em who they are, not whether a draft pick at their position busted in the past. If that were the case then the Patriots should wait until the 199th pick every year to draft a QB, except it would have to be the 7th QB in that draft, the other 6 busted, and they shouldn’t take a risk like that.

The post mentioned how trading down for a QB was a bad idea and listed the latest example from 1st rounds.

I listed the context that showed that was not a valid criticism.

 

[condon84]

You raise a good poibt. Penix is probably being underated. He may be the best pure passer available, but age and injuries have lowered his stock.
Some team will het a bargain blue chipper.

I would not take Penix top 5 at all. My post was a reponse to the idea that JJ is worth a top 5 pick or anywhere in the top half of the first round. Whenever I saw Michigan play, he would complete passes that were pre-determined (screens, etc). But whenever he had to drop back, read a defense and make throws, he was not accurate enough.

I didn't see enough LSU and NC games to comment on Daniels or Maye.

I saw Caleb a bunch when he was with Oklahoma and he looked special then. Not sure about the leadership or off the field question marks though.

Saw a good amount of Oregon, Michigan and Washington games this year. Penix looks like an NFL QB. Nix and JJ look like backups.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

I would not take Penix top 5 at all. My post was a reponse to the idea that JJ is worth a top 5 pick or anywhere in the top half of the first round. Whenever I saw Michigan play, he would complete passes that were pre-determined (screens, etc). But whenever he had to drop back, read a defense and make throws, he was not accurate enough.

I didn't see enough LSU and NC games to comment on Daniels or Maye.

I saw Caleb a bunch when he was with Oklahoma and he looked special then. Not sure about the leadership or off the field question marks though.

Saw a good amount of Oregon, Michigan and Washington games this year. Penix looks like an NFL QB. Nix and JJ look like backups.

I was not suggesting Pats take Penix top 5 either but if I were at 15-20 and he stays healthy, i think he will be a bargain

 

[DaBruinz]

Or stuff about trading down for other assets/positions.

You could have the 90's Cowboys OL. It won't matter if you don't have the guy behind center. Football has changed dramatically in the past few decades.

Everyone always mentions later round QB's who hit. The list of those QB's who failed in the late rounds is much larger.

The 90s Cowboys O-line with a vet like Cousins and WR like MHJ would be steps in the right direction. One only has to look at what the Ravens did in 2000 to see that to be the case.,

 

[DaBruinz]

Those have been his measurements for quite a while, I doubt you will see much if any difference at his pro day.

Those might be the LISTED measurements that LSU put up, but, as everyone knows, Colleges LIE all the time about the Heights/Weights of players. That's why the Combine and Pro-Days are so important

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I do not get the MCarth6 hype as all

Every year there's at least 1 QB that runs up the board around the time of the combine. Last year it was Anthony Richardson.

McCarthy is now in the top-4 mix, and there's no reason he shouldn't be. As you review his tape and from the combine, he's got the arm, the mobility, is sensational throwing on the run, good size, smart, and just led his team to the championship under a great coach. He should have been rated higher all along.