Does SB52 change how you view the draft?

[IllegalContact]

no.....lack of athleticism in the defensive front 7 was obvious before the season started.......need speedy beefcakes

 

[maineman209]

It takes a long time for defensive players to get up to speed in Belichick's system.

It seems to me that it often takes awhile for NFL players to "get" the Pats defensive systems, too, not just college prospects.

By my count, in the 2017 secondary, there were 4 players in their 1st or 2nd season in the system who contributed snaps:

- Gilmore, 1st year, 816 snaps (77%)
- Bademosi, 1st year, 214 snaps (20%)
- Rowe, 2nd year, 259 snaps (25%)
... missed seven games each year
- J. Jones, 2nd year, 439 snaps (41%)
.... also only his 2nd year in the NFL

In the 2017 front-7, there were 11 players in their 1st or 2nd year who contributed snaps:

Van Noy, *2nd year, 710 snaps (67%)
... *was actually only with the Pats for half the season in 2016
Roberts, 2nd year, 558 snaps (53%)
... only 2nd year in the NFL, too

Guy, 1st year, 582 snaps (55%)
Wise, ROOKIE, 543 snaps (51%)
A. Butler, ROOKIE, 473 snaps (45%)
M. Flowers, 1st year, 283 snaps (27%)
... had played only 72 defensive snaps in his entire previous career
Lee, 1st year 281 snaps (27%)
... ZERO previous NFL playing experience on defense
Marsh, 1st year, 266 snaps (25%)

Plus Harris, Harrison, RJF and Reilly.

Not surprising that it took awhile to "gel". Also not particularly surprising (or shouldn't be) that it failed in the SB against a very well-coached offense.

Anyway, when I'm thinking about "rebuilding the defense in 2018", I'm reminded that there was already significant roster turnover in 2017, but also significant experience gained in the system to build on for 2018.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

It seems to me that it often takes awhile for NFL players to "get" the Pats defensive systems, too, not just college prospects.

By my count, in the 2017 secondary, there were 4 players in their 1st or 2nd season in the system who contributed snaps:

- Gilmore, 1st year, 816 snaps (77%)
- Bademosi, 1st year, 214 snaps (20%)
- Rowe, 2nd year, 259 snaps (25%)
... missed seven games each year
- J. Jones, 2nd year, 439 snaps (41%)
.... also only his 2nd year in the NFL

In the 2017 front-7, there were 11 players in their 1st or 2nd year who contributed snaps:

Van Noy, *2nd year, 710 snaps (67%)
... *was actually only with the Pats for half the season in 2016
Roberts, 2nd year, 558 snaps (53%)
... only 2nd year in the NFL, too

Guy, 1st year, 582 snaps (55%)
Wise, ROOKIE, 543 snaps (51%)
A. Butler, ROOKIE, 473 snaps (45%)
M. Flowers, 1st year, 283 snaps (27%)
... had played only 72 defensive snaps in his entire previous career
Lee, 1st year 281 snaps (27%)
... ZERO previous NFL playing experience on defense
Marsh, 1st year, 266 snaps (25%)

Plus Harris, Harrison, RJF and Reilly.

Not surprising that it took awhile to "gel". Also not particularly surprising (or shouldn't be) that it failed in the SB against a very well-coached offense.

Anyway, when I'm thinking about "rebuilding the defense in 2018", I'm reminded that there was already significant roster turnover in 2017, but also significant experience gained in the system to build on for 2018.

You make a great point here. The defense isn't that far away - it had performed decently enough despite HT being out and Branch flaming out, it took a good offense and coaching staff to really fully expose it. Historically it appears the defense has tended to play its best when the "core" guys stick around and supplemental pieces are added year to year, rather than the other way around. As examples:

- The team dumped its entire 2014 starting CB set, and brought in veteran retreads to compete with Butler and Ryan. I (and others) was panicking, as I wondered if Butler was ready and Ryan hadn't shown enough to me to be a consistent starter. Boy was I wrong.

- The improvement from 2012-2013 was mostly organic once Talib and McCourty had truly settled into their positions.

So maybe some of the current guys can really take a step up next year with another year in the system under their belts. There is talent here and I don't think a major overhaul is needed. They just need to supplement the current guys with a few new guys and get rid of the deadweight (Roberts, Richards, Harris, this year's Branch unless whoever is around shows major improvement in camp).

- A stud NT that can rotate with a healthy Valentine (hopefully) and move Brown to DT would be fantastic, so Guy can sub with Brown and also rotate all over the line, and Butler can be allowed to develop into a fierce situational inside pass rusher who won't be a liability against the run.
- Another defensive end that can work in rotation with Flowers, Wise, and hopefully Harrison (and maybe Rivers) so that they're not all exhausted.
- An extra quality LB since that is a high injury attrition position for the team and they can use everything there - speed, strength, and smarts.
- An outside CB2/CB3 that can rotate in with Rowe as the #2 guy on the outside.
- And a backup safety / big dime linebacker who can spell Chung if he gets hurt and play the role they want Richards to play.

That's really just 2 additional starters, 2 part time starters, and 1 role player. There's a lot to work with here otherwise, and keeping them all together rather than blowing it up can really help. Shoot, remember how people were calling Gilmore the Patriots worst big money free agent signing ever after week 4? By the end of the postseason he was their best player on defense (and no, that's not damning with faint praise).

 

[Nonentity]

I’m on the fence now about drafting Lauletta/Jackson in the second round. At this point I think we just need to put our faith in Brady & invest all in defense.

If Tom reaches his goal of playing until 45 then a QB drafted now will be done with his rookie contract by then. We might want to wait until 2019-2020 to draft one.

I think we need to start getting ready now for Tom's decline. You don't want to get caught short at the most important position (QB), especially after we traded away both Jimmy G and Jacoby B.

As always, my rule of thumb is this: if you think Player X is a future NFL starter at QB, draft him.

We should be looking for the next franchise leader, with the luxury of knowing that we have the option to draft raw/undercoached QB talent and have them sit behind Brady for a few years.

 

[luuked]

So a QB must be drafted, preferably no later than the 3

With Brady planning to play until around 45 there is no stress to get a QB that is "NFL ready" because looking at how Tom played in the SB there should be at least about 1-2 years of time to develop anyone behind Brady/Hoyer before any decline makes him unstartable. If he gets injured it is all void anyway.

By that I dont mean that we shouldnt draft a QB like you are suggesting. On the contrary we definitely should but it can be at any point in the draft really. A lot of teams paying a premium by drafting QBs in the first round just to get those who are ready pretty quickly. We can take a fifth round pick and give him a couple of offseasons to learn from the best offensive coaching staff and the best QB.

I still think that part of the reason why JG looks so good is because he was able to spend so much time with Josh/BB and watch Brady operate. Obviously his quick release and accuracy was there anyway but I suppose those will be requirements for anyone drafted anyway.

In other words.. I would not be surprised if BB and Josh prefer someone RAW that fulfills certain criteria and who they can sculpt to fit right into an Erhardt-Perkins offense over somewhat finished products.

 

[maineman209]

With Brady planning to play until around 45 ....

I thought Gisele had made Tom promise "two more Superbowls". So, maybe it's "till age 45 or two more Superbowls, whichever comes first"?

 

[luuked]

I thought Gisele had made Tom promise "two more Superbowls". So, maybe it's "till age 45 or two more Superbowls, whichever comes first"?

Was that SB attended or won ? Because if it is the latter maybe that is why he ignored White in the flat.

 

[pats_premi]

Yes. Need for better DL and speed at the LBs. If the Patriots had won, then I would be saying that they had a bad day and gave up 41 points "In BB we trust"